Next week's Rotation:
Felix / Vargas / Erasmo / Beavan / Paxton's placehol...er...Millwood
Bullpen:
League / Wilhelmsen / Luetge / Furbush / Iwakuma / Kelley
AAA:
Noesi-as-starter
Noesi hasn't "failed" yet by any means. If Erasmo had come out and done what Noesi did we'd just send him back to AAA to continue to work on being a starter. If we had no pen options and too many starters then Noesi could just swap places with Erasmo but Kelley is running a 13 K/ 3 BB line in Tacoma and hasn't been hittable either, which was his problem earlier in Spring. He might have been knocking off the same rust as Iwakuma.
Ruffin, OTOH, has somehow given up 11 runs on 8 hits + 1 HB + 3 walks, with no HRs. That's really hard to do. Even Noesi would have trouble doing that if balls didn't leave the yard. So I'd give Kelley first shot if we don't intend to promote Capps or Pryor yet. Pryor would be my first call between the two, but both will be up by year-end.
We don't need Noesi trying to aim his fastball from the pen right now. He's got talent - let him go work out his issues somewhere that isn't so destructive to the big club. I thought he'd get one more shot since we're intent on giving guys lots of chances early in the year, but after Wedge's comments maybe we're learning to be a little more decisive. Of course, Noesi is not a vet entitled to such respect.
If he won't give me more Jaso, then he can at least give me less Noesi. I want a trip to the E.R. Go Erasmo! ;-)
And as for Iwakuma...he's reminded me of Shiggy from day one, and I'd be fine with him in that role. He looked good out there, with the exception of his mistake pitch to Dunn. That happens. If Millwood blows up and we still refuse to move the Big Three then he can get a look in the rotation, but right now I want him to bridge Erasmo (and later Paxton or whomever) and give us some useful middle innings work.
2 months to get the roster right and 4 months to chase the brass ring, yes? Well so far, survey says: Noesi no, Erasmo yes. Ride with that for a while and see what else shakes out.
~G

Perhaps selecting Noesi over Nova was a mistake?

He had shoulder pain in his first start back in the minors. No timetable for his return.
 
Pineda, whom the Yankees acquired in a trade in January, will return to New York this weekend to see Dr. Christopher Ahmad, the Yankees team physician, and will also have a more comprehensive dye contrast magnetic resonance imaging test performed on the shoulder to help determine the problem.
...
Even if nothing more than the initial diagnosis of tendinitis is discovered, Pineda would still be at least two months away from returning to the Yankees.

Getting Montero for a broken pitcher is a serious stroke of luck (or shrewd dealing, depending on your POV). I miss Campos - he was supposed to lead that second wave of future Mariners pitching after the Big Three come up, and that spot remains unoccupied at this point.
But Noesi is not injured, just struggling, and Montero is fine and will get much, MUCH better. Yes, Nova MIGHT be the better long-term plan, and is certainly the better plan of the last three weeks, but big picture I'm having trouble complaining.
We traded an A-ball pitcher and a broken major leaguer for, minimum, a bullpenner and our starting catcher / MOTO hitter, both of whom are making minimum wage and have 6 years of club control left. How much more robbery do you need to enact on the Yankees to feel satisfied? ;-)
We could be destined for all 130 games of Olivo, lack any RH power + be looking at a fat and injured Pineda. I'll take this version of our destiny. Even if Jack winds up being wrong about Noesi vs. Nova, he sure looks right about Pineda vs. Montero, which was the much more important call.

That said...I'm still bitter about the Fister trade too.
~G

The Fister "trade"? We basically cut Fister. Ok, maybe a little harsh.
Who would trade Noesi back for Pineda? I'd send him back for Campos.

...except that's how it feels, yeah.
Trading 5 years of a plus starter for a pair of middle-inning relief arms is a bad trade. When we did it with Lowe and Varitek it felt bad at the time, and was bad. Should I be glad we didn't trade a Varitek too?
Of everything Jack has done, the Fister trade feels the most desperate and over-reaching. Morrow for League? I get that one. We didn't win it, but we didn't really lose it either. We traded a reliever for a more reliable reliever. The Blue Jays decided to convert him back to a starter and got a lot of Ks but two years of much worse ERA than FIP. Why is that, exactly? We'll see if that continues in year three.
Either way, even if we wind up losing it I understand it. Aardsma was a walk on the wild side, and so was Morrow. Couldn't have both of em in the pen at the end of games, and Morrow wasn't gonna close for us.
Giving up Fister for the Mystery Grab Bag of prospects...that hurts more. It's like taking the very nice $5,000 grill set and trading it in for what's behind curtain #3. Could be a car, could be bowling tickets. We didn't bust out, but I don't really see how what we get back is gonna ever better than what we traded. Fingers crossed for awesome results from Furbush and Ruffin.
But the Pineda deal is really gonna help. Once Montero is catching 100 games a year and Jaso's taking the other 60, I'll be even more thrilled with it, wherever Noesi is. Jaso counts as part of the Cliff Lee trade, so that's still paying dividends too.
And Campos...grr. Long way to go, for heath and success, but I do miss him. James Paxton came off the rails for the 2nd game in a row today, had a Noesi-like outing. I want all the arms I can get.
Still - we're loaded. It's just time for all this talent to manifest in results, that's all. Jack has a few more moves to make, and after that the guys on this team have to put their money where his mouth is. Lookin' at you, Smoak and Ackley. The "best first-round hitters" in consecutive drafts need to start pulling weight this year.
First round, 2008 draft by hitter WAR:
4.4: Buster Posey
3.8: Ike Davis
2.8: Brett Lawrie
1.9: Gordon Beckham
1.6: Jemile Weeks
0.9: Lonnie Chisenhall
0.7: Justin Smoak
Not cool Justin. Time to get on your bad motor scooter and ride.
And when do we start taking over/unders on Olivo's time as the guaranteed starter and lineup presence? He's a train wreck out there.
~G

When did they say that they took him over Nova?

I was surprised to hear it, but he said they had their choice between the two and picked Noesi.
~G

Z has turned out to be a different style of GM than I thought he would be. His eye for talent has been poor, but hes been a master at maximizing trade value (either than Fister).
I can't believe he negotiated Montero+Nova.. and I also can't believe he passed on it.

I don't know if the deal was, "Montero + one of Nova / Noesi for Campos and Pineda" or if it was "throwing in Campos gets you Noesi, throwing in Walker gets you Nova" sort of thing. In the latter case, I absolutely get it.
If it's the former...well, Nova keeps getting underestimated and Noesi has the superior minor league numbers in less time for his climb up the ladder. All the more reason I'd like to be patient with Hector and let him figure some things out in a less pressure-filled environment.
But I'd have taken Nova to get a starter who's ready NOW, since it's this rotation we needed an arm in. Still trying to see the whole picture.
~G

5.0-IP; 4-BB; 4-K 1-ER; 0-HR (loss)
4.2-IP; 4-BB; 4-K; 5-ER; 2-HR
5.0-IP; 1-BB; 9-K; 4-ER; 2-HR (loss)
aggregate - 14.2-IP; 10-ER; 9-BB; 17-K; 4-HR -- (6.14 ERA)
Okay, maybe that isn't quite as bad as Noesi's
aggregate - 12.1-IP; 13-ER; 6-BB; 10-K; 3-HR - (9.49 ERA)
But ... those three starts up there are the first three from Felix in 2006 ... which is AFTER his 12 starts the previous season.
RRS got 100 innings of sucking before the club folded their hand on him. Twelve innings is enough to call it quits on Noesi? I don't think so.
Back in 2009 Vargas had a 3-start stretch where he got hammered for 18 ERs in 16 innings while fanning 4 and allowing 4 HRs. How's that Vargas thing working out today? The thing is, Vargas had 11 decent starts before that 3 game disaster.
This is how NORMAL pitching talent develops. Glavine had some absolutely miserable spells his first year.
Okay ... I get the angst because some think Iwakuma makes a better fit for starter and Noesi seems a more logical bullpen. Not everyone views all pitching talent the same. It's good to have varying opinions. But whatever standard one sets for "leash" on prospects -- that standard sets the tone for every prospect that follows.
What if Paxton comes up and gets rocked his first two outings? Or Hultzen or Walker?
Today Morrow is still "trying" to become as good a pitcher as Vargas has been for over 2 years. That mental aspect of adapting to "that pitch worked in AAA" is not a minor one, (if you'll pardon the pun). But the only place you can work on that is in the majors.

I'm not suggesting Noesi is worthless, just not a great choice over Nova (if that indeed was the choice). And also that I'd rather have Campos still in the fold.

Today Morrow is still "trying" to become as good a pitcher as Vargas has been for over 2 years. That mental aspect of adapting to "that pitch worked in AAA" is not a minor one, (if you'll pardon the pun). But the only place you can work on that is in the majors.

Wait a minute - you're the same guy whose mantra about minor league promotions is that the yo-yo effect (up-down) for the first couple years is not indicative of failure but is just part of the normal process for the majority of prospects, right?
But now Noesi can't be demoted to the minors because he won't learn anything there?
He has 43.1 IP in AAA in his career, and not even in the same season.  Felix had twice that.  He appeared in 3 AAA games in 2010, 6 in 2011, and was gone.  Noesi doesn't even know what "that pitch that worked in AAA" looks like.  AAA was the level of the minors where he started to struggle.
If his full arsenal was functional I wouldn't care - I can wait for him to harness plus pitches (as Felix had). Keep him in the rotation for the year and let him learn. Noesi's not showing that he's there.  His curveball and slider are basically useless, his fastball has inconsistent release points and his changeup only works if he can throw his fastball for strikes.
AAA is exactly where you want to work on improving your secondary offerings that you're too scared to throw to ML hitters.  It's not his struggles on the scoreboard that I care about, it's him being overmatched.  Several balls in his shutout game were hammered.  They didn't fall in, but he wasn't quite as good as his line suggested in that game when everything was working.  
If he can put more of those outings together he can hang around in the bigs a while longer, but if he gets destroyed again, he's out.  You can't have one guy chewing up the pen - he's got to be able to fight through rough spots instead of waving the white flag.
Paxton is not in the bigs right now because he's inconsistent, and can give up 8 walks in a game or none.  He's got to work on that.  If he comes up and gets bombed 3 or 4 times, I can absolutely see sending him down - but at that point our competitive season may be over anyway.  It's not over yet.
Erasmo doesn't have a release point problem or nearly the gross inconsistencies of Noesi. If we want Noesi to only work on his two primary pitches, he can do that from the pen.  If we want him to round into a fully-formed starter, then he needs to be somewhere he can do that.
If he can't go 2 innings, then the bigs are not the place for that.  His next start needs to be much longer and more successful, and a string of more-successful starts couldn't hurt.  Beavan is around because he can go deep into games and even when he screws up it's not an explosive detonation.  If he kept getting blown up he'd be out too.
You're right, Vargas had goodwill built - we'd seen him be consistent before he fell off the rails so we had a hunch he could get back to that.  Noesi has been utterly unable to contain the damage in 2 of 3 starts and has zero track record as a starter in the bigs to fall back on.
He's not gonna get a lot more chances to stay afloat for the Ms if he doesn't clean it up, and I don't think he should.  AAA is a useful place.
~G

I have no objection to sending Noesi back down to AAA.
I have an objection to making that decision based on 12 innings of work since the season started. This dismisses what he did in the minors, (where he ran walk rates UNDER 2.0 ... which is off-the-charts good). This dismisses what he did in Spring Training. This dismisses whatever it was the club saw in him that had them judging him better than Nova.
I have no opinion on whether Noesi should be a starter or reliever. I have no opinion on whether 100 more innings in AAA would be adviseable.
My opinion is generically that - given ANY pitcher who ran sub-2 walk rates for multiple years in the minors that an analysis which purports that he has a CHRONIC problem with release point has no foundation. A "release point" problem for any pitcher running sub-2 walk rates for multiple years either MUST be transient --- or Seattle is attempting to get him to do something completely new - and decided to do that at the major league level.
Is it possible he is overmatched? Yes. That's certainly possible. But the very fact that people are pointing to an inconsistent release point problem supports the notion that he is NOT overmatched -- but rather he is just going through a pitcher slump. Just like Felix did his first three games in 2006. Just like Vargas did in the middle of 2009.
But ... even if I accept that he has a problem that cannot be fixed at the MLB level ... and I accept that the entire Seattle braintrust not only bungled this decision badly ... but that they are willing to admit freely and publically, (by acting after 12 innings) ... that they screwed up ...
Explain to me why Felix wasn't sent down after his bad 3 starts in 2006. Or why Vargas wasn't sent down in 2009?
If you send down a pitcher that you pegged to be a starter - and give up on him after 12 innings ... you've set the stage that EVERY pitcher who comes up thereafter will assume that they have 12 innings to prove they belong - or they're gone.
IMO, that is the kind of environment that breeds failure - not success.
GOOD organizations operate in ways that are acceptably FAIR to *ALL* players. ANY organization that picks a rookie as a starter - then gives him 20 ABs or 12 innings and sends him packing isn't being fair to the player. And after you prove you aren't going to be fair or reasonable with your players - you've lot them all.
Send Noesi down now --- and then every prospect -- hitter and pitcher - will suddenly be looking over their shoulder.
This goes back directly to the cumulative impact of veteran entitlement goes WAY beyond just the ABs you hand unfairly to the veteran. The truth of the matter is, if Noesi has a couple of more starts like this - then everyone, Noesi included will nod and say -- "yeah, he needs to go down." But the organization cannot appear to be making panic moves ... especially barely more than 2 weeks into the season.
In truth ... the standard "minimum" time for making significant (non-injury-induced) roster changes is 1 month. This is a fairly accepted norm. Maybe it's foolish. But it is what it is - and you break that covenant at your own risk.
Noesi may eventually get sent down. I'm just saying, send him down after April 30th, the entire organization benefits. Send him down today - all that is accomplished is proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that this organization is utterly and completely clueless about the realities of developing talent and should sell, move to another town, and Seattle fans can rally around the Sounders.

But if he has another 2 inning, 7 ER performance they might. Or put him on the 15-day DL, then let him "rehab" in the minors for a bit.
Noesi has insanely good walk rates up until AAA. In AAA that went away (again, small sample) and he got hit a lot. That's continued in the bigs, both in the pen and now the rotation - he's getting hit a lot and walking too many.
AAA & the bigs: ~ 110 IP, doubled walk rate to 3.5, lost 1.5 Ks per, hits climbed over 10 per, WHIP over 1.50.
He's doing something wrong. If he doesn't find it in a couple weeks he's gonna have to find it in AAA. I guess I don't understand why the idea that a guy who never walked anybody and suddenly is walking twice as many while being less effective in all other areas over his last 2 seasons of work is being asked to do something different "in Seattle." Maybe he is. If this is how he's taking to doing that "something different" then again, he needs to work on it somewhere else.
If he blows up again before the end of April I expect a demotion. Maybe he'lll get DLed first to give a plausible explanation and not make every struggling pitcher feel like he has 12 innings to get it right or he's gone, as you suggest will happen.
But if you need to set standards for your organization, you also need to treat individual problems individually, and not with a broad brush. Vargas wasn't sent down because he was working on something, and came out the other side fine. Felix wasn't sent down because he had 4 plus pitches and needed to be taught how to pitch instead of throw, and nobody in AAA could hit his stuff and force him to learn. Fister wasn't sent down because he limited damage even when he struggled, so he could be given time to work.
Noesi is in none of those situations. Noesi doesn't - and shouldn't - trust his offspeed stuff to carry him. He was unable to work on it with the Yankees out of the pen, and has shown struggles with the experienced hitters in AAA as well. Saving the confidence of other nameless future pitchers and shoving Noesi out to feed the wolves every 5th day can mess up a kid's head too - sacrificing Noesi on the altar of patience isn't a perfect plan either. Punishing him - and the team - because the Mariners made a judgment error in Spring Training isn't smart just because it's conventional. If the Mariners can get him worked out between starts, fine.
Hector's ERA is almost 10 AFTER having thrown one shut-out game. It won't happen tomorrow, but a re-assignment can happen quickly. No more of those outings, Hector. Spot the fastball, throw the changeup, and stick around.
~G

IMO the best reason to send him down, besides allowing him to work at starting, is to let Dr. Elliott work on him for a while. Maybe his influence on the farm is overstated, but his tenure has correlated with some seriously encouraging results.

I second this. I hate seeing a guy with an erratic release point and spotty control of all his pitches trying to learn it at the big league level. Hated it with Morrow; hate it with Noesi.
Send Noesi to AAA to hone his skills in the rotation, promote Kelly and get Erasmo in the rotation. You've still got Iwakuma for long relief if needed.

I wrote about Montero's mitt position at Hanshin game.
Now I watched this game at MLB TV.
His mitt position was about 3 inches lower. Not as low as Olivo's who has it about another 2 inch lower and makes sometimes moves with his mitt facing the ground as a gesture to the pitcher : "Keep the ball low"
I do not know how much the mitt position will effect the GB/FB ratio or the location of pitches in pitch FX.
But I thint will be a very interesting study ...
Iwakuma pitched much better with Montero with his mitt position about 3 inch lower.

I think so.
The big difference between MLB and NPB is that the C not the P is calling the game at NPB.
So Iwakuma and other NPB P are used to obey catchers target.
It is a difficult transition for NPB P that they must call the game by themselves.
So was the difficult transition for Johjima to adjust to MLB P.

Both in explaining the troubles of some NPB starters over here, and of Washburn's reported intense dislike of Johjima.
You wouldn't think it would be that hard to get on the same page, much like figuring out who leads in a tango. You can't go through the whole thing switching off the lead - after a few steps somebody's got to give.
If Iwakuma is flexible - and he can keep throwing that shuuto - then I remain interested in him. I liked what I (briefly) saw of his Japan stuff, and I liked what I saw out of the pen. He has a weapon, one that was basically undemonstrated in Spring Training. But it's a different rhythm than anything he's gone through before.
I'm very curious to see him, and his cooperative (or not) connection with Montero going forward.
~G