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=== 38 Consecutive Strikes for Bartolo Colon ===

Bartolo Colon went into the 5th inning Wednesday with a comfortable 3-0 lead on the Angels.  He didn't think they could do anything much with his fastball, and he closed the game out with a sneer.  From the 5th to the 8th inning, he fired 38 consecutive strikes.  By the time he was done, the A's were up 4-0 and the game was over.

In one annual softcover put out by Baseball Prospectus, Jim Bowden told Gary Huckabay that he didn't think much of sabermetricians "because there isn't a dime's worth of difference between you guys.  You like pitchers who strike out a lot of people, walk very few, and keep the ball on the ground.  No #$$%&*#.  Us dumb*@$ scouts woulda never thought of that."

That old quote echoes in my head from time to time, especially when we in the cutting-edge Seattle blog-o-sphere find 19 different ways to interpret Tim Lincecum, or 4 different mainstream predictions for Michael Pineda (such as mine and Taro's) or 12 different ways to predict Michael Saunders.

..........

If I were to pick one single article to illustrate the difference between SSI and Big Blog, it might be this article right here.  Colon's 38 strikes are "calculated" to have been a 1-in-4.1-million long shot.

That would be amusing if intended to underline Colon's brilliance.  That's not what occurs in the text.   They're not kidding about their assumption that each ball and strike being luck, and the posters challenge it politely.  A few tweaks to the original formula are made -- focused on the math involved in pitch counts and so forth.  They are left with the firm conviction that Colon's streak was a genuine 1-in-4 million (type) of event, because of the firm conviction that a pitcher's intent is irrelevant.

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You go down to poster Jason before it occurs to anybody that maybe Colon is throwing strikes because he's got a nice lead, and he's a 90% fastball pitcher.

Had the Oakland-LA game been a Strat-O-Matic game with dice rolls every pitch, then yeah.  But it didn't quite dawn on me until that article, how much some sabermetricians truly see major league baseball as a Strat-O game.

The older I get, the less I see it as random chance out there.  It's true that the batter tries to hit the ball hard somewhere, and if he does, he takes his chances as to whether it will hit a fielder.  But except for that ... huh?  Colon threw 38 strikes in a row, ahead 3-0, because .... wait for it .... the dice were weird that night?

This attempt to pound square pegs into round holes, it does not help us search for truth.  There comes a point when the wrong paradigm, pronounced from people with great authority, is harmful rather than helpful.

/rant

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=== Lessons Learned, Dept. ===

Bartolo Colon, when his arm isn't hurting, is one whale of a tough pitcher.  

On July 4th last year, his ERA stood at 2.88.  He had 79 strikeouts and 22 walks in 90 innings.  Fourteen of his first 20 starts were "lockdown" games of 0, 1, or 2 runs scored.  70% of the time he threw a shutout minus a bounce of the ball.

Last night against the Angels, Colon stomped across the UFC ring like Rickson Gracie, with the air of an angry pedestrian marching across the street against the red light.  And Albert Pujols, Kendry Morales, Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter could not do a thing about it.  

The little dude threw 108x pitches, of which 95x of those were 91-MPH short arm fastballs.  That, my friend, is the same thing as saying that he just threw fastballs.  And the Angels couldn't lay a glove on him.  The Angels.  What's their payroll again?

There was something amazing going on Wednesday, and it wasn't a binomial distribution.  Bartolo Colon's fastball is a marvel.  Give it up for Billy Beane.  I wish we had Bartolo Colon.  I could go for pinstripes in 2012.

 .........

Billy Beane is forced to shop the frozen foods aisle for TV dinners, but man.  Colon and McCarthy and Cespedes and Seth Smith and Kila and Reddick and ... ??  Are you sure the A's ain't gonna get fat on these MRE's?  Is it already decided that they're going to lose?  'cause it ain't clear to me.

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=== More Objective than Thou, Dept. ===

There is a difference between what the Mariners' offense did in 2010-11, and getting locked down by a pitcher who just flat woulda beat anybody that night.  At SSI, we'll continue to offer our shtick as to which is which. 

In the first 11 games, the Mariners faced:

• Bartolo Colon 3 times
• Brandon McCarthy 2 times (very best FIP in MLB last year)
• Rangers aces 4 times
• Somebody else twice 
• Then in games 12 and 13, we got the Indians' Opening Day starter and #2 starter

This degree of difficulty factor has caused some people not to notice how the Mariners' hitters are swinging.  They have faced a collective enemy that is not very far from being an All-Star game pitching staff.

You sure the objective take on the Mariners wouldn't be that they've been really tough?

No cheering in the press box, now.  We're Professional Journalists here.  We've got our credibility to think of.

Bah humbug,

Dr D