1
Poor Vargas. He gets no respect. He's just a really solid pitcher and it seems like oftentimes he's mentioned as one the guys to kick off the island to make room for a new youngster.
Chew Electric Death! Indians 1 ...
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=== Gameflow ===
On Tuesday, our hero Spaceman Spiff had gotten gutkicked by Susie. On Wednesday, still green about the gills, the question was whether they'd be hanging indoors with Hobbes, having lost all interest in the outside world.
Anybody have any opinions as to whether the 2005-11 Mariners might possibly have been hung over whatsoever? Just to cherrypick one low-hanging cluster of losses, consider April 17th, 2006. The M's were 6 and 7, and had just lost a tough game. In game 14, Eddie Guardado blew an agonizing save, blowing a sure win against the Red Sox. Two games later, Guardado lost another one in the 9th ... on four walks. They wrapped up with a 7-of-8 losing streak and fell way off the pace.
.........
Six years on, come April 18, Jason Vargas did his rob-o-tronic Maple Street expression of hip-hop in the first. He walked off to good applause, and then Figgins-Ichiro chased Derek Lowe out of the strike zone.
The M's cruised, with Wilhelmsen and League polishing the meal off with gusto. Garcon? Check, please! Drive home safely.
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=== Jason Vargas and the Electro-Robotron ===
Ain't no thang, baby. Might as well be walkin' on the sun. Vargas knocked down the Indians as though he were a PBA bowler rolling a leisurely 205 at the local dive.
He did not have his A game. He threw a lot more fastballs than usual, in part because changeups don't work well to LH power hitters. So he just painted and painted, at about the same tempo that Art Garfunkel guy uses on Joy of Painting. One pitch after another was one baseball too far outside for the LH mashers, and one pitch after another was called a strike. (The M's are #2 in the majors in fewest swings outside the zone; the Indians are #1.)
The Indians were chewing barbed wire going back to the dugout.
Like we sez, the Rob-o-Tron has given Vargas an exceptional level of consistency.
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Wedge highly praised his tempo out there. If you just joined us, "tempo" is like .... well, when you're on a date, and you know where to park when you're going to Benihana's.
Vargas' tempo is all you need ta know. He's hip to whether the parking lot gate arm OK's his debit card. He knows how to get some space around the grill. He knows that the shrimp tempura rocks here. One smooooooth operatin' evenin' follows the next. Do you think the Mariners need to dig Vargas' tempo, say, for four more years?
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The Indians one run was "soft" -- down 3-0, they spent and out to advance the feeb to 3B and spent an out to advance him to home plate. Small ball down by crooked numbers. That ain't offense; it's stumbling in the dark. Credit Vargas the shutout.
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=== Bullpen ===
Vargas went 7.0 full and handed the ball to Tom Wilhelmsen. To somebody who'd just walked into Seattle, you'd assume that there are no problems whatsoever with the pen.
The term "smoke and mirrors" gets kicked around a lot. This 2-man bullpen can lead to no good.
Loved those change curves Tuesday, Charlie...
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Comments
2
When Z first signed Wedge, the blogo's (like us) soon commented on his past history (reputed, perhaps) of not knowing how to use a bullpen.
Here we are...and the discussion is worth having again.
Could be that Wedge is just using Wilhelmsen because he's some kind of a cross between Mike Marshall (May I have another inning please, Sir?) and Goose Gossage (Take some more of this heat bad man from the other team!).
Could be that he's gonna ride that horse until it collapses.
Could be that he's not confident in the other guys.
Could be that if he isn't going to use the guys we've got, then get some of the kids up here.
Could be that Wedge doesn't know how to use a pen......for the lang haul, anyway.
All of those are open for debate.
Fire away.
moe
3
To combine a couple of answers:
- I'm not in a rush to get Figgins off the team, I'm in a rush to make sure he's not blocking anyone we'll need for our next pennant. I don't believe Chone is for real and even 80 OPS+ Figgins (ie, retrieving one of his several low years from several seasons back) doesn't really help me at all. I'll definitely take this, but I still think Figgins is one 10-day slump from packing it in. Here's hoping that slump doesn't come, I guess. BABIP .350, baby. I'd love a return of some sort on our 9 mil/yr investment, even if I don't think it'll be what I want it to be in June.
- I'm a pretty big Vargas fan. Like him a lot. I'd far prefer him to Beavan for the same price. They are not and will not be the same price. Vargas next year gets 8ish million, and then he'll be looking for the Wasburn-Batista 4/32 on the market. Do I want to give him 10% of my self-imposed salary cap? Not particularly.
- Same with League. He'll be getting 8 mil/yr - or more - to close for somebody. Closers may be more fungible than some other positions in theory, but our bullpen is a pretty mess right now. Do you pay him and risk a Fear-The-Beard arm blowout moment, or trust that his health will stay intact since he's never really had any issues? Aardsma he's not.
So the question is: who do you pay?
The elephant in the room is Ichiro and his $20 mil. I'm almost positive we'll be retaining the services of our RF for something like a 3-year contract. Why 3 years? Because he should be around 2600 major league hits at the end of this year and we're gonna want to see him get to 3000 as a Mariner. And that should happen in his 3rd year.
If we would move Ichiro to CF I could maybe live with that, since his declining production wouldn't kill us there, but we are paying Guti 7 mil a year to (not) play there. So I expect a large portion of payroll to be devoted to a 90 OPS+ OF going forward.
We won't be able to afford to help this team if we're paying $25+ million a year to Figgins, Vargas and League.
~G
4
Figgins comes off the books after 2013 - there is no universe in which we allow his option to vest. Vargas has 2013 left as an arb candidate before free agency (price tag: 8 mil) and League is a free agent after this season.
I see us as more likely to extend League than Vargas. Yes, we have Capps and Pryor and whatnot coming up through the minors, but if Wedge's bugaboo is pen usage then we'd better have a reliable pen, especially to protect the leads of the young pitchers about to arrive. Furbush + Capps + Pryor + Wilhelmsen + League is one lefty short of looking REALLY nasty.
With Seager looking all kinds of good at 3rd, Ackley secured at 2nd, Carp and Catricala and Peguero (among others) hoping for LF, Ichiro likely to be re-signed in RF, and Wells/Saunders backing up our currently untradable and unplayable Guti in center (here through 2013) ....where does Chone get all these at-bats and comfort that he needs? Maybe he won't fold like a lawn chair as the roster pressure ratchets up, but my opinion of his mental fortitude remains low. We can't trade him either, really, but I'm expecting him to crash and burn for the last time this summer. I'm not in a hurry to be rid of him, I think he'll rid us of himself shortly and am planning accordingly.
And Vargas...well Vargas is doing everything we could ask him to do. I'm just looking at 7 starters for 4 spots behind Felix (Paxton, Hultzen, Walker, Erasmo, Noesi, Carraway, Beavan) and wondering if his 8-10 mil a year going forward could be used for something else.
Ichiro isn't gonna be a #3 hitter for a pennant-winning offense in 2014. And looking at our O I still feel like Danny Ocean. "You think we need one more. You think we need eleven."
I do think we need one more hitter. Maybe that's Carp, or Catricala. Maybe it's Franklin when he gets here. But I prefer not to put all my eggs in that untested-player basket. Felix is here through 2014. After that is anybody's guess. We have enough pieces to work a trade for a vet, and enough salary room to sign a good (or even great) free agent - assuming we lose either Vargas or League.
At this point, I'd choose to lose Vargas, even though I like him a lot. If we decided to trade one of the Big Three for a bat, that evaluation could always change.
What does Paxton + Franklin + a couple pieces fetch on the open market? More than Vargas would, for sure.
~G
5
Figgins comes off the books after 2013, so does Gutierrez. I let them simply disappear...by then we'll know whether Saunders or Ackley can stick in CF (yes, I said Ackley...Wedge was recently talking about moving Ackley around to keep Seager in the line-up...we may see him in CF THIS year).
Vargas has one more year of team control...I trade him NEXT year...not this year. We need rotation glue until the day comes when at least two of the big three stic in the rotation (Paxton and Hultzen first, Walker by September 2013). We can't trade Vargas out from under this team...our pitching staff is too shaky and we need guys who go deep into games and work quickly...that's Vargas.
I pay League. League is a rare "healthy" closer...he has no history of arm trouble, his mechanics are butter smooth, and he's getting consistent, easy results. League stays. You can build a cheap pen around him but you need at least one veteran stabilizer.
And...I don't think Ichiro is getting 20 million. Not with his declining production even if he has a good year in 2012. I think he'll get 3/36. That leaves us wiggle room.
6
This was such a prototypical spot to use your setup/closer, it's hard to argue. But also, I think Wedge is trying to build psyches a bit, try not to have too many late inning losses, and we've already had a few. I think it was important that this one went smoothly.
7
Outrageous! We have to have somebody pitch for us. In the not too distant past, Vargas was our #5 starter, and our rotation was creeping death nasty. Now, Vargas is our #2 starter, and the pickings behind him are untested, shaky, and thin.
We talk about the big three and four as if they were money in the bank, but we've seen these sorts of things go wrong before. We were talking that same can't miss schtick about Josh Leuke and Danny Cortez the year before this one, and both of those guys went up in flames. Hey, seven or eight years ago, we were talking about Ryan Anderson and Clint Nageotte, and Travis Blackley, and Felix. Most of those guys are gone with the wind.
And to talk of trading League, the foundation of our shaky bullpen, who is well en route to another All Star 40 save season, and who has no apparent successor?
Now that we have the average offense we have been coveting for 8 years, we should not wish to immolate it with substandard pitching.
Guys who pitch well in Seattle should stay in Seattle. We should sign League, and Felix, and Vargas, and run a carousel with the rest, until somebody sticks. Then we should sign him too.
8
I'll give him a pass for last night, too.
But he needs to find another (or two) set up arms.
I LOVE Wilhemsen. Would be nice if he isn't burned out by August.
moe
9
I've always undersold Vargas. And am aware I underestimate him. And just flat cannot stop underestimating him. Is that possible, to be self-aware that you're self-unaware?
After 4 starts, Vargas has 0.5 WAR, $2.5M in on-field value, and is on pace for 4+ WAR and $20M in value.
He's #9 among AL starting pitchers in salary earned, ahead of Sabathia, McCarthy, and Lester, and has three of his four starts have resulted in 0-2 runs. If he were Roy Oswalt, I'd be raving.
I still don't buy in. It's weird.
10
He was asked about getting Jaso some time and said "we need to get into the season more." None of us understood quite what he meant by that.
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Case in point: Wilhelmsen.
Wedge can afford -- he hopes -- to ride Wilhelmsen during April and May in the sheer-faith assumption that by the summer, solutions will have presented themselves.
Then he will have kept the 2012 season alive, he will be able to give Wilhelmsen a light June, and everybody will have won.
It's white-knuckle, but it's what I'd do. I'm not dogging Wedge. It sez here they need to call some kids up. :- )
11
Thanks to our #2 starter, Jimmy Key, for not attaching a high price tag to the strategy.
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This 2-man bullpen is a lot worse than Wedge is making it look. Kelley and Sherrill have already flunked out, and Erasmo isn't looking like that's his role. Zduriencik needs to get Wedge a couple of relievers, yesterday.
12
Going into the season I'd thought it was a given that League was one and done. The M's org is bursting at the seams with power arms, and the M's need some kind of Prince Fielder type.
But as G-Money argues this, it starts to look more risky to assume that those young arms will be holding and saving games starting August 1...
Can definitely see an argument for paying League before Vargas. ... that's why I'd like to see Capps, Pryor, and Snow up here in time to make an intelligent decision on July 31.
13
I'm with you, G. The M's self-imposed salary cap has you CHOOSING BETWEEN proven contributors.
Vargas is doing well, but we keep in perspective that the Mariners couldn't give him away just two baseball months ago.
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Still, what do you do with the fact that he's earned $21M the last two years... and has apparently leaped a plateau? This guy projects to $15M, if not $20M, per season in quality innings pitched. And you can have that $15-20M for 50% off.
Just noodling here: how do you throw away a 50% purchase opportunity? .... maybe because all of the club-controls guys are 20% opportunities and you really have that many of them?
14
As it pertains to Taijuan, Hultzen and Erasmo, that is. A golden Jay-Z hip-hop track. It remains to be seen.
I hadn't thought of this one Matty ... you could go through arb, kick the can down the road one year ...
Lot of benefits to that, starting with the fact that perhaps with the extra time, the trade market will buy in on Jason Vargas...
15
. . .is just trying to keep the ship afloat and push it away from the dock. He's managed young teams before and probably thinks he has a feel for it and wants to keep all the young hitters engaged until he sees if they're going to hit.
If he gains confidence in the line-up, I think he'll open the doors to the bullpen doghouse and let some of the hounds run. Hey, if Doc can do meta-analysis (self aware of his own self unawareness), I can let the metaphors roam.
16
Usually the knock on Tough Guy Managers is that their players rebel after 3-5 years. Boston knows that Bobby V has a short window.
Somehow Wedge seems to have that elusive knack for demanding performance, and yet wearing well on his players. Not common at all.