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=== Best Thing About This Conversation ===
Is that you only have to have it once. James Madison to King George, A.D. 1776.
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The M's chances to win, as Millwood took the mound for the top of the 5th, were 98.7%. Eleven batters later, the chances were 50-50 on the spreadsheet, and 20-80 in real life.
I felt bad for Millwood; if Ryan turns that DP then we are just flat --- > not talking about any of this. How many times has Jason Vargas had a DP turned behind him [but in the Phantom Alternate Universe his SS botched it and he went on to give up 4, 5, 7 runs] but we never saw any other variation and so never gave it a moment's worry?
Also, Millwood struck out Kipnis on a called strike three, that the ump blew, with the odds still at 95%. Kipnis went on to swat an OOZ pitch into LF for a single.
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That said, Millwood gave up like 7 crushed balls in play that inning, and threw a piddling two swinging strikes all game. The the story of the game for me is that --- > some guys are here as bridge players. Nobody ever asked Millwood to justify a two-year, $16M contract.
Millwood had terrible, terrible location all night, and it caught up to him. In this case, it is as simple as that. Millwood's location.
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Millwood is 37 now, and each time he throws this badly, the birthdays will come into question. Dr. D has always compared age 36*, and the 8th inning*, to the third hour in basketball. You're fatigued, your muscles are weak, you can't feather the ball, you have to kind of huck it.
Sandy's warning about the frazz-out for one inning looks prophetic. However, we do also point to Millwood's location the entire game. Here's that chart again. Everything UP, everything where the lefties could extend their arms, everything out-and-over.
Dr. D is not fast to accuse a samurai like Millwood of mental issues. However, consider the above chart, and consider that Millwood (calling his own ballgame) threw 65 fastballs and 18 something else. Millwood just kept heaving the ball out-and-over to lefthanded thumpers. They accepted his BP invitation.
You could feasibly interpret this zone chart as 100.00% consistent with Sandy's prophecy that Millwood would show you some breakdowns in which he refused to think out there. Edit to add, I loved the way that Millwood mann'ed up after the ballgame and just said he was dung from pitch one. Managed to trick them for a few innings, but .... lesson learned might be just to get him out of there quicker next time.
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=== Erasmo ===
Bill James had the little illustration about every new poker player getting cleaned out the first time. You bet your buttons you don' want him at the $500 table right off.
Erasmo was as clear a case of that as you'll see. He's been "iced" in the bullpen, which is nobody's fault, but he gets in there and you couldn't pull a needle out of his lips with a tractor...
Just needs to acclimate.
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=== Charlie Furbush ===
Had arm action on three or four curve balls that I have not seen since the days of Butch Henry. Where the deuce did THOSE come from. YOWWWZA! He flat-out embarrassed Indians hitters every time he did it.
This was the Charlie Furbush that Jay-Z traded Doug Fister for. Butch Henry with a 90 MPH fastball. That was some kinda change-curve.
Gotta watch for that pitch. If he could do it again, he'd have a fearsome weapon.
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Ah, well. You lose 1 of every 100 games in which you're up by 7 in the middle innings. It takes the Mariners how many years to pile up 100 such games? More than 35 years, I think. This loss may be unique in Mariner history. Don't worry about it happening again tomorrow.
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I know Sunday you were saying the swing was coming apart, in at least that one at bat you say he looked good. Do you feel he looked good in every AB? He also had that Deep Fly to Center that died 5 feet short of retying the game as well.
Sandy's warning about the frazz-out for one inning looks prophetic. However, we do also point to Millwood's location the entire game
Somewhere in the midst of my original tome on Millwood, I did note that the first thing to go with age is "consistency" and it would become increasingly difficult to determine whether he had truly "lost it" or was just taking his "typical" inning off. Based on descriptions, Kevin never had it Tuesday night.
I loved the way that Millwood mann'ed up after the ballgame and just said he was dung from pitch one. Managed to trick them for a few innings, but ....
And this is why I classify Millwood completely different from Weaver. Ultimately, Millwood IS a scrapper. He doesn't simply surrender or give up or quit. Even throwing dung, he hung on for three innings. Chances are better than even, he's much, much sharper next start.
In the end, my original take on Millwood is that for a low-scoring offense, (which obviously wasn't the case last night), he'd end up with a decent ERA and a horrible record. While the results were unfortunate, the best-case scenario I see for this season is Millwood strings together 5 or 6 good starts in a row, and then the Ms dangle him to an actual contender with back of the rotation problems.
I suspect most everyone understands that Millwood is #1 on the hit parade once the farm arms are deemed ready for prime time. What prevents Z from converting Millwood into another chip to throw into the farm pot is a few more nights like this. Personally, I don't expect this will happen that often. I think Kevin simply had "one of those nights". It happens. Next outing he'll likely be fine.
The problem with Ramirez isn't just feeling the pinch of MLB pressure...the problem is also that he doesn't like relieving. He's got a starter's rhythm. It took him 14 pitches to finally throw one at 93 mph...his normal velo. He also missed his location badly several times in the first three hitters...and then never again, but the fourth hitter lucked into a base knock.
In his one GOOD bullpen appearance to date, the long outing against the Rangers, he struggled against the first three hitters...a walk, a line out to first and a 9 pitch battle resulting in a single. Then he settled in and started cruising.
He's got a starter's rhythm...he can't be our bullpen answer.
Erasmo can't be coming in from the pen, cold, and hoping to help us escape a jam. Let him make his own jam from the beginning, or pitch his own smooth-sailing game.
I want to see Erasmo competing as a part of the Starting Five. I think Noesi makes a better bullpenner, but for what we gave up in the package that included him I don't think we'll be bullpenning his for a while yet. Which creates another problem.
Beavan's not giving up his spot, and Noesi will likely hang on to his longer. That leaves Millwood or Vargas to be moved in order to give Erasmo a slot, or a change of scenery to Tacoma until such a thing can happen.
A few more outings like that and Millwood won't be around to give us veteran advice any more. Until and unless that happens, though, we're in a strange spot in the pen: two long relievers, Erasmo and Iwakuma, neither of whom we either will or should use in long relief.
Our pen is becoming a tangled mess quickly. Better sort it out. Loved what Furbush did, though. His breaking ball was practically malicious. Glad to see him back in the bigs - I think he'll be a good pen piece moving forward.
~G
I recall a 12 run lead in 2001 going into the 7th against the Indians that they coughed up. I think it was the record at the time (since surpassed by another team) and that was definitely just one of those games, being that they won 116 others.
Not that either team is the same as then. Don't really want to compare the teams either, but that was the most memorable game to me from '01, most of the bad luck from that whole season packed into just 3 innings.
I guess all the wins blocked that memory for some, but I doubt I'll ever forget watching a great defensive and pitching team just choke harder than I've seen our worst teams do. 12 run lead in 3 innings, 3 then 4 then 5...and fall in extras.
Just checked, it was August 5th in Cleveland. Sele and Halama in the 7th, Halama and Charlton in the 8th, Charlton, Nelson and Sasaki in the 9th all gave up runs then Rhodes went swinging k, 3 unassisted, 1b to RF, WP, BB, swinging K to get through the 10th. Paniagua gave up the winning run in the 11th with 1 out.
I'm sure you'll recall this extra-inning stunner -- against the Indians no less!! -- from the 2001 season: :)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE200108050.shtml
The "unique" comment was supposed to be a (very) little witticism about losing 1 in 100 of your huge leads, of which the Mariners never have huge leads. But yeah. :- )
It probably happens once every two or three years, blowing a lead that size.
That is AMAZING that Lou ran through so many superb relievers -- Daimajin, Nellie and Rhodes were like 1-2-3 in K rate at times that season -- and he couldn't get the brakes put on. Maybe that was karma balance for the other 161 games?
Good stuff Wish, Brian. Heh!
Gooooood stuff Matt. I think we are all seeing the same things on Erasmo. Was thinking the same thing about his "good" relief appearance -- even there it took him some time to work up a sweat.
There is an argument for Earl Weavering a rookie, but certain guys are just extreme starters. You wouldn't bullpen Greg Maddux under any circumstances. Jamie Moyer. Erasmo Ramirez.
Probably an SSI poll would run 90%: get him into the rotation either here or in Tacoma. Tacoma would be just fine if necessary: he has taken a seat at the $500 table, has seen it, and now can go digest it.
PAINful to watch a Jamie Moyer try to relieve.
