1
Good call Doc....
Montero wears the mask tonight. Jaso gets the DH PA's. Right on.
A Carp sighting would have been nice tonight. Alas....
moe
Millwood vs Masterson ... Pre-Game
...............
=== Future's So Bright We Gotta Wear Shades, Dept. ===
M's right now are tied for the wild card. :- )
There's a thought floating that the 5 wins against the A's don't count. You think they'd have counted if the Mariners lost them? Suppose the M's were 3-and-8 right now. Would that be taken as indicative of anything? So why doesn't a strong 6-5 record indicate anything?
No, it says here that the Mariners have played mondo tough the first 11 games. In 9 of those 11 games, they've faced top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers. (Colon is real strong in the first half, and Colby Lewis was on fire.) If anybody had offered me 6-and-5 right now, I'd a said "in a heartbeat."
That said, the Cleveland Indians are an average-solid team, in a neutral home park*, and we face an average-solid three RH starting pitchers, taking these three as a group. The Indians have won 20 of their last 28 at Safeco. Check the bases gained and bases lost after the series is over, and it will have been a good test. I expect the M's to show that they are at least average-solid themselves.
...........
=== Justin Masterson, Exec Sum ===
He's been underrated. He's an extreme groundballer who still racks up 7 strikeouts a game. Would you want one'a those for the Mariners? Back in 2010, for example, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was #18 in the American League, and in 2009 it was about the same. His ERA's were higher than that, camouflaging his ability.
... In 2011, his 3.21 ERA rebounded to match his skill. Overall, his expected ERA has been about 3.60 the last three years. Thath high-quality H20.
Ron Shandler has him as a HQ draftee target, and BJOL has him as "the #53 starting pitcher in the world", in a clump with Madison Bumgarner, Mark Buerhle, and Matt Harrison.
...........
Not everybody here realizes that Masterson is an extreme platoon pitcher, as many of these RH groundballers are. Like this:
| Masterson Career | RHB | LHB |
| OBP | .300 | .362 |
| SLG | .301 (!) | .425 |
It was even worse last year, in his career year: righties slugged a piddling .259 off him. Against hitters swinging from the 3B side of home plate, Masterson is fully as effective as Felix Hernandez is against righties -- actually more effective in 2011. Right-on-right, you've got a Cy Young situation going on.
Lefty, Masterson can be had. So if there was ever a game when you wanted to stack lefties .... let's say you had a lefty catcher and a lefty shortstop on the bench ... this would be it. There literally may never be a game in the 2012 season that called more strongly for lefty hitting.
To be fair, Miguel Olivo is 2-for-6 lifetime against Masterson :- / so that may be all the rationale needed ...
Fortunately, Capt. Jack has indeed given us a ballclub stacked with lefties. Regardless of Wedge's choices at two glove positions, the fact remains that we won't be seeing Betancourt, Lopez and Beltre try to face Justin Masterson. We'll be seeing Ackley, Seager, Smoak et al. Kyle Seager, by the way, has faced Masterson once and has lifted those pesky rodent sinkers into line drives to the tune of 3-for-4 with a double.
.
=== Synergy ===
Cleveland was expected to "field" one of baseball's really lousy defenses, and the 2012 stats are agreeing so far. Considering that their staff is below average in strikeouts, and considering that the M's smack hard, low liners around the park, that lousy defense could cost the Indians in this series. We'll see.
.
=== Various and Sundry ===
The word in the oddsmaking industry is that, hey, check out the Mariners. They're surprisingly tough, tough as in "gritty." ... Cleveland has their #1 tonight, the M's their #5, the line was set at 11:10 and .... the movement is toward the M's. I don't say it's the gospel truth.
The "under" line was set real low ... don't expect many runs ... and people are swarming to take the under. Mass expectation is, tight game tonight. The SSI over/under? Pick the inning Tom Wilhelmsen gets hot, 7th or 6th. M's haven't blown a lead this year that I recall, which makes me nervous...
..........
Dr D is watching: Figgins' and Ichiro's strike zones. Kyle Seager's pulled fly balls. Justin Smoak's BABIP (currently .207). And, with Millwood pitching, whether Brendan Ryan will make a coupla those plays from the hole.
Enjoy,
Dr D
Comments
2
He's doing well in AAA...what the heck is Z waiting for?
Maybe Saunders will have a good game tonight. :\
3
Laughing out loud at Sandy's diagnosis of Millwood. One bad inning per game, and you don't know when it's coming. Um, yeah...
4
at Safeco in the fifth inning tonight, I can tell you. That analysis is looking pretty good about now.
5
Best thing about baseball: there's a game tomorrow. Vargas and Felix next two days, isn't it?
6
We've had 3 huge early leads. The starting pitchers have blown two of them and Delabar almost helped Felix blow the third. Our offense is young and doesn't have multiple-bounce ability yet. If they hammer the other team and the other team fights back, we haven't shown the ability to score back on em. We have provided good offensive innings, not good offensive games.
Nothing wrong with that - that's what I'd expect from a .500 team and not a powerhouse contender. But that means we've GOT to contain the damage once we have a lead and the starter begins to falter.
The pen's gotta lock it down, not finish giving it up - and we need to find our sea legs on holding those leads soon.
~G
7
My $0.02.
1) Erasmo needs to be in AAA pitching as a starter. It does not appear to me that Erasmo has the toolset to be a lockdown reliever. He looked much better in spring training as a starter and I fail to see how his relief outings here help develop his future in any meaningful way other than keeping his pitch counts down. This certainly isn't a 'soft' landing. Either swap him into the starting roll currently occupied by Millwood, or call up Kelley and place Erasmo in the Rainier's rotation.
2) Millwood's presence on this team, and his selection to the rotation over Iwakuma, continues to be the single most baffling roster move made by the Mariners. There is no upside to Kevin Millwood. He's not mentoring the future aces, as the future aces reside in Jackson. He's at best a stop-loss measure. And when you already have Iwakuma, Ramirez, and even Furbush as available starters with more upside than Millwood - I just don't get it.
3) Next roster move will be Saunders to AAA and Carp recalled from the DL. Saunders is so far removed from his spring training performance it's shocking. His inability to harness his obvious athletic gifts are saddening. Saunders got the pitches to hit in the 9th and he missed them. He had to score that run.
4) Did Wedge really pinch run Olivo? Seriously? Over Wells? smh.
5) Wedge has, for as long as he's been here, been preaching selective patience. Wait for your pitch, but when you get your pitch hit it hard. Jaso's 9th inning at-bat was this concept in motion. He got his pitch. He hit it hard. Just not hard enough.
6) So much for that Brendan Ryan "Accountability" Day. Free Kawasaki.
7) Olivo's batting .111/.135/.139. I didn't even know that was possible. Free Jaso.
8) Is it just me, or do Jack Zduriencik's free agent signings just plain suck. His talent evaluation on a major league level has me freaked out.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent LHP Hong-Chih Kuo.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent RHP Shawn Camp.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent 2B Carlos Guillen.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent RHP Brian Sweeney.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent RHP Kevin Millwood.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent LHP Oliver Perez.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent RHP Aaron Heilman.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent RHP Hisashi Iwakuma.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent LHP George Sherrill.
Seattle Mariners signed free agent SS Munenori Kawasaki.
Ugh. Double ugh.
9) My sincerest wish for this team would be to adopt Doc's roster strategy of Can You Win Your Next Pennant With This Player. Please make it so.
10) Stay at .500 for half a season then jettison the dead-weight and call up the Three Amigos and charge! I still believe.
- Ben.
8
1) He should be starting somewhere. He's not a lockdown guy, he's a starter or long-reliever, and he needs to pitch.
2) We detest Iwakuma, very obviously - but not enough to just cut him. Must be some politics involved. Millwood is here for "vet leadership" which would help more if we had our young pitchers of the future actually on the team to learn from him.
3) Everybody makes mistakes, but Saunders is running out of time to cut down on his. I don't think he's gone when Carp gets back, but his playing time will get reduced. He needs to get it in gear.
4) He had to pinch-run with Olivo, or move Jaso out of the DH spot and lose it. If we'd hit into a DP there, then Jaso's spot would have come up with a pitcher/pinch-hitter in it, and if Jaso gets knocked out of the game we'd have no options behind the plate. This was one of those "DH/C" issues. It still seemed stupid to me, but whatever.
5) Jaso needs to play more, even if just to pinch-hit against hard righties. Or even easy righties, since Olivo can't make contact using a boat oar at this point.
6) Brendan Ryan now leads the Ms in OPS+. I'm not kidding. Amazing what 4 walks will do for you. Other than his HR he can't hit anything either, but his magic Walk-Me device bailed him out in this game. It was unbelievable how none of the pitches to him came anywhere near the zone. Weakest hitter on the team and his ability to put wood to bat went almost entirely untested. Free Kawasaki indeed.
7) Yup.
8) Yup. But unlike in previous years I have to wonder if this is on purpose. He has a ton of players coming up and no desire to block them with long-term Olivos, Ryans and Millwoods. So we have those guys short-term. From the start of his tenure Jack has been looking for short-term stopgaps (and failing to find them).
I'm deeply concerned by his inability to find contributing vets. I don't really ever want him to "assist us" at the trade deadline by adding 3 months of a veteran - the guy might spontaneously combust on the field.
But it's still not hurting us long-term, Figgins aside - he's not tying up large dollar figures in his veteran-player mistakes. The team will be made or broken by the kids, not the Carlos Guillens and Aaron Heilmans.
9 & 10)
Mid-season Mariners roster:
Lineup: Kawasaki / Ackley / Ichiro / Smoak / Montero / Seager / Carp / Guti / Jaso
Rotation: Felix / Erasmo / Noesi / Beavan / Paxton
Bullpen: Kelley / Ruffin / Pryor / Furbush / Wilhelmsen / League (I think we might re-sign him)
That looks much more fun. In 2013 when Franklin and Catricala are hopefully pushing for roster spots it'll get even better.
~G
9
Jack Free Agent signings include:
1) Russell Branyan - .867 OPS in '09
2) Mike Sweeney - .777 OPS in '09
3) Josh Wilson - .693 OPS in '09
4) Langerhans - .697 OPS in '09
5) Kennedy - .632 OPS in '11 ** great first half
6) Wells - .742 OPS in '11
1) Aardsma - 2.52 ERA and 38 saves
2) Jamey Wright - 3.16 ERA
3) Aaron Laffey - 4.01 ERA
Not everyone was a complete miss. And none of them cost anything.
The point of lots of FA signings is to look at a bunch of guys and see which ones (if any) still got game.
Millwood had a really bad outing.
Ryan made an error.
It happens.
Regarding Ryan, I definitely think benching the starter with the best OBP (and 2nd best SLUGGING average), so you can play your Japanese import ... well ... let's just say that would probably be the final nail in the coffin to have any American player come to Seattle of his own free will. Not that Ryan is going to continue at that pace all year --- but any team that benches its best hitter (at that moment) in order to play a completely unproven, 31-year-old, singles-hitting Japanese import -- frankly would deserve to finish dead last for the next century.
Eventually Ryan will get dinged up or slump. But punishing success, (Gee Ryan, you're hitting .775 ... time to bench you), while rewarding failure -- (Gee, Figgy, our lead-off hitter has a .288 OBP and one SB on the season -- you've earned your right to play absolutely every game!) That's part of what got us into the dumpster we've currently attempting to extricate ourselves from.
10
4) Why wouldn't he pinch run Wells, and then catch Olivo in the top of the 10th? You'd still have Liddi for a right-handed pinch-hitter.
3) I think Saunders will get sent down not because of his mistake last night, but because he has 7 hits in 35 at-bats and is running a .635 OPS, and primarily because his approach has clearly regressed. Plus, Seager's production means that the one most likely to take over center field is Figgins - which will necessitate keeping Liddi on the roster until Guti is healthy.
8) When your best free agent signings are Russell Branyan in '09 and David Pauley in '10 (a minor league deal, and even then really only had half a good season in '11 before the trade), I'm concerned. His talent evaluation in the draft more than makes up for this concern. But, it's still a concern.
- Ben.
11
I will absolutely agree with the point that GMZ's FA signings haven't set the club back to any significant degree.
I'm simply pointing out that his FA's signings haven't advanced the club to any significant degree either.
---
With the caveat that I dislike WAR immensely, it serves for a quick evaluation:
Branyan was a good deal. 2.8 WAR. Check.
That Sweeney line was good for 0.2 WAR. Replacement level.
The paperboy was a waiver wire pickup.
Langerhans: 0.6 WAR.
Kennedy: 0.1 WAR
Wells was a trade acquisition.
---
Aardsma was a trade acquisition and his FA deal amounted to zero innings pitched.
Wright, a midseason release by the Indians, pitched for 0.0 WAR in '09 and -0.1 WAR in '10.
Laffey, was a trade for Matt Lawson.
-----
GMZ is no Pat Gillick.
- Ben.
12
I'm more concerned with the fact that Ryan's errors have directly related to 2 of our losses. Pivotal moments, brain dead plays. Don't like that.
I love the energy Kawasaki brings and it seems to me that Ryan's not bringing the same fire this year.
I was also just making fun of Wedge and his 'accountability' bull-puckey.
- Ben.
13
as beni indicated. They weren't FA signings. The exception being Branyan, with whom he was familiar as a member of the Brewers organization. That would be like Z signing Alex Liddi as a FA.
Like I said, most of the FAs were basically free (like Sweeney) and a short-term patch on a long-term problem. Time have changed. No need to go hope for a Sweeney miracle now with Smoak and Montero at 1B/DH now - we just need those kids to come through on their potential. Fingers crossed.
And I agree, Kawasaki is not gonna start for Ryan soon - but I'd like to see him get some PH at-bats. Ryan is not a good enough hitter to hope that his magical Walk-Me button is always working. He's not good with a bat. And he's injury prone, which is the real reason I don't think he's gonna be starting for us through the end of the year. I thought he was a FA after this season, but it's just that his contract is up - he's still arb-eligible in 2013 before his 2014 FA year.
Kawasaki is 9 months older than Ryan, and cheaper. Not sure what our timeline is for Nick Franklin, but Ryan won't be here if Franklin can stay at short.
For now Ryan's gonna play, they just need to be willing to pull his "stellar" glove out and trust Kawasaki to gobble up grounders in the 9th after he's pinch-hit for Ryan against a righty.
Figgy...well, I'm just hoping that his time is severely curttailed once Carp gets back. More than likely, though, they'll demote Saunders and let Figgy get those extra ABs in center.
9 million a year buys you a lot of forgiveness and extra chances in the lineup, I guess. I wish that wasn't so, certainly in year three of a deal in which Figgins hasn't even OPSed .600 (!!!) for the Mariners.
But once we pull Figgins from the roster, it destabilizes our lineup. Do you move Ichiro back to leadoff? Bump everbody up a spot so Dustin leads off? Wedge obviously cares very much about stability, so I have to think that's taken into account.
I'm hoping that Figgins playing all the time is a last-ditch effort to get a rusty nickel's worth of production out of him. "You want to play every day, and lead off every game? Fine. Here it is. Show me." They're trying to salvage him or trade him for scrap to save a million or so if his production ticks up to "semi-human" from "pond scum."
And when it doesn't...then I hope they are willing to bite the bullet and just cut him. Seager's shown he deserves the same 150 game consideration - can't be messing with the future to try to save a dollar. Sunk costs are sunk costs.
~G
14
If he were showing no signs of life...then I'd understand rushing to be rid of him...but he's playing well on the whole (a bit unlucky on his balls in play, but hitting it harder, swinging with more life, tightening up his zone and drawing some walks, running the bases, etc)...what if Figgins had given us our money's worth the first two years and played precisely the same games in 2012? Would you be begging for his ouster for nothing? They're not going to pull Seager to get Figgins ABs...he'll move around the diamond. And he's a championship caliber supersub if he keeps playing like this.