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Q.  What's the overall grade, after two games?

A.  That Montero is far better than the fans told us he was, that he's easily as good as the Yankees and Mariners told us he was.  

Guess here -- it's just a guess -- is that Wedge probably feels the same.  We hold out a lot of hope that Wedge merely needed to see what he has in fact seen, and that now, after the pleasant surprise, he's going to start expanding Montero's catching role.  If so, great, and we fans have no complaints whatsoever.

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Q.  If SSI were to argue AGAINST Montero catching, what would it argue?

A.  That (1) Montero has no way to know much about the league's hitters, so his CERA will be 0.50 or more above Miguel Olivo's -- and this is 80 runs, 8.0 WAR, over the course of a season.  Or, simply that Montero's functional CERA will give away more runs than his bat will gain.  That would only require 30-40 runs, which is like 0.20 of added ERA.  This is a feasible argument, and it can't be resolved "correctly" either way.

That (2) Montero's throwing arm could be below the critical ML-competent point, so that running teams will go wild, 4-5 stolen bases every night, and that this will warp the game to the M's disadvantage.

That (3) Montero could implode under the pressure, psychologically.

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Q.  What does SSI actually believe about those arguments?

A.  That (1) he has caught two games and the starting pitchers were terrific in both of them.  That Montero's pitch selection, tailored to his own pitchers rather than to the hitters, is perfectly legitimate.

Geoff Baker's argument is decisive.  This is not the first time that a rookie catcher has ever been on the 25-man roster.  Other teams use rookie catchers.

That (2) we'll have to watch this one.  It hasn't been ruled out.  If the M's threw him in there, they'd have to be ready to pull him back out if the SB's went crazy.

That (3) no way.

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Q.  Is Jeff Clarke equal to Roger Hansen?

A.  He's not.  There's no law against a fan blog.  I'm giving you my camera angle, and giving you very detailed reasons for why we assert what we do, so that you can decide what is useful and what isn't.

Read it or don't.  :- )

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Q.  How are the component catching skills? ... pitch framing.  This can be +15 to -15 runs for certain catchers.

A.  Early in game one, Millwood was getting pinched and I'm going, awwwwww no.  The umps are going to force Montero out of there because they love Miggy.

But by the end of game one, the M's pitchers were getting everything a foot either way and I'm going, wow, Jesus really won that dude over quick.

Game two, no issues whatsoever.  Montero frames the pitches very energetically -- for example, he gives the wrist bend and holds the pocket wayyyyyy up high for the pitcher.  

But framing isn't physical, mostly; it's about having a good relationship with the umpire.  You think Russell Martin holds his glove magically, or you think he shows up as +20 runs on pitch framing because he's catching the Yankees?  You think Miguel Olivo shows up -10 runs on pitch framing because he doesn't squat low enough, or because he's caught for the Royals and Mariners and the umps know those teams have nothing at stake?

........

A cheerful, deferential rookie can do fine with the umps, as far as I've observed the last thirty-odd years.  

Personally I love Montero's framing, and the umps seem to like him.  Why wouldn't they.  His framing, if anything, is probably a positive for him.

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Q.  Component catching skills... how's the pitch blocking?  That can be +10 to -10 runs.

A.  Catchers who block are little guys, usually without big arms.  What catchers give away in blocking, they get back in throwing, and vice versa.

Montero's a big guy, and presumptively not a pitch blocker.  He's not light on his feet.

But!  He is very young, and therefore he has legs.  He's game.  Pitch blocking has looked neutral.

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Q.  How's his arm?

A.  The experts will tell you that his footwork is a little off.  I have no idea whether this is correct; in slo-mo it looks good to me.

But Montero has had two throws and sailed them both.  I would expect him to give away -5, -10 runs this year on SB's.  It bears watching.

Is it below critical level?  That's just something people say who are married to a skeptical position on Montero.

...........

RELATIVE TO MIGUEL OLIVO, it seems that Montero would give away runs on SB's but get them back on pitch blocking.  On the 3 elements of measurable catcher defense, both seem like -5 runs catchers.  Bear in mind that many catchers are there for defense.  It's like saying Josh Hamilton doesn't run as well as Peter Bourjos.  Jesus Montero and Mike Piazza aren't supposed to be a plus defensive catcher.

Montero looks much better than Mike Piazza.   Gimme -5 runs and I'll take it.  So would the M's.

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Q.  How about CERA?

A.  SSI believes in Miguel Olivo's contribution here.  He has had a lower CERA than his backup in every single season since he came back to the AL in 2008.  Last year, Olivo's CERA was like 1.50 runs better than Chris Jimenez.  Just saying.  Of course we could be off track here.

I find Jesus Montero's pitch selection to be fresh, optimistic, and effective.  Kevin Millwood locked down the Rangers, somehow getting 7 strikeouts in 6 innings, and Hector Noesi threw a very cool 8-IP shutout against the A's.

Of course, the pitchers are out there shaking Montero off a lot.  Noesi did this too, stand there and shake off three suggestions and finally throw.  

............

So what?  The results have been 3 runs allowed in his first 18 innings, and this from #4-5 starters.  Jesus Montero's pitch selection is based on calling the game to his own pitchers, rather than to the enemy hitters.  That can work.

Pitchers don't want to BATTLE their catchers.  If Montero is cheerfully supporting the pitchers in their shakeoffs, not getting frustrated with them, then the pitchers can stay cool.  What's the problemo?

Montero has caught two games, the M's are 2-0, and his CERA is 1.50.  

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Q.  Montero's pitcher could get splattered next time.

A.  And Olivo's couldn't?

Just telling you what we have, tabula rasa, observed in two Montero games:

	Olivo	Montero
Framing	- / =	= / +
Blocking	- -	- / =
SB's	+	- or - -
CERA	+	?  maybe +
Presence	+ or ++	= to +

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Q.  Leaving us where?

A.  Comparing Montero to the minimum standard he needed to show:  he is clearly far above it.

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My $0.02,

Dr D