While the Ms results have been encouraging on many levels, it's early ... and attempting to read too much into data too soon is dangerous. Of course, scouting isn't about numbers ... it's eyes-on. But, here are some numbers to consider:
RF: .289/.313/.378 (.690) - 1-HR -- Ichiro
RF: .211/.250/.342 (.592) - 1-HR -- Cruz
RF: .250/.314/.313 (.627) - 0-HR -- Hunter
Ichiro is hitting as well as the Western RFs. That's good. But, what is not good is that according to Doc, Ichiro has altered his approach AND is somewhat dialed in. Doc has described Ichiro with almost across the board positives. IMO, this is very, very, very bad. Why? Because if Doc is correct, then Ichiro's results have no reason to improve.
The numbers?
pitches/PA = 3.48 ... lowest since rookie season. In '09 and '10 it had gone up to .374 and 3.73. In 2011, it dropped to 3.51, (his career is 3.60).
Both his BB% and K% are at 4.2%. These are both way down from career norms of 6.1% and 9.3%.
His BABIP is .295 ... identical to his 2011 BABIP. This is especially disturbing, given that his LD% is currently 27.3% ... a full 7 points above his career average.
I don't have eyes-on data. I can only look at the numbers. But, if I accept Doc's view of Ichiro as 100% on the money, what is my take-away?
1) Opposition is coming right at him. After last year ... and with Ichiro in an RBI slot, they are not even contemplating pitching around him. He is viewed "today" as a weaker bat than the kids behind him. This is supported by the highest FB% he's seen since 2003 ... and a spike in the cutter % and corresponding drop in slider. IMO, the book on Ichiro at this moment is that he may only have a slider speed bat at this point, so they aren't going to help him out by throwing sliders. Just fyi ... his wFB last year was -13.6.
2) Ichiro may indeed be more selective than ever ... his swing% is the lowest of his career. But the enemy is pounding the zone with fastballs, and the result is Ichiro is running a .295 BABIP. Not good. Moreover, he's not doing more with these pitches. His ISO is .089 ... (better than the off-the-charts-bad .064 from 2011 ... but still below his career average of .096).
3) His speed still seems okay. And the sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions. But he's still at 11.1% for infield hits, up a point from last year. His 60% extra-base-taken number is off the charts good, compared to his 41% career average. But, he has only a single stolen bases out of 11 opportunities.
BEFORE the season began, my prediction on Ichiro was that the RBI slot would hurt, because he's steal less, (check), he'd be pitched to more aggressively (check), he would attempt to hit for more power (check), but this would keep his BABIP down (check).
But ... the overriding concern here is not about what he has done ... but what he will do for the rest of the season. Okay, maybe Hunter hits the age wall this year. But, the simple truth is this. Few clubs can survive offensively with a RF hitting below .700.
I also predicted Ichiro would get off to a "fast start" ... and would suffer decline as he continued to play every day. Eleven games and eleven starts in RF. With his body as fresh as it will get this year ... with Doc noting a focused player, implementing a solid plan at the plate ... and apparently seeing the ball very well ... with Smoak in the on-deck circle all year ... with all of that ... we get a .690 OPS.
How does he possibly improve on that?
Hit more line drives? Sitting on 27% at the moment, I think it obvious that isn't an option. Walk more? Well, yes, that's possible ... but is dependent on the opponent being concerned enough to actually throw something off the plate. Why should they be? Smoak or Montero or even Seager can hurt them with the bat. Ichiro? If he hits one hard, it's still just a single.
In all honesty ... I was hoping Ichiro would start much faster. Given the numbers so far, I just don't see where the upside is for him to bring the numbers up going forward.
Ichiro's relief at finally being caught by the howling mob, toward the end of the M's 513-run season? Nah, he's just getting kaizen service at the Nippon TowerMall Nike shop
.............
=== Pitch of the Game ===
Bottom of the 5th, and the A's have just come back to tie it 3-3. John sez to me, sure would be nice to answer immediately. That's what the Rangers would do...
Ryan flies out. Figgins walks on four pitches. Dustin Ackley gets on base, courtesy that 60-foot backhand "flip" by a feebleminded Jemile Weeks. Two on, one out, your #3 hitter up.
Ichiro takes a fastball for an 0-1 count and here comes the pitch of Sunday's baseball game. Ready? Ready? ... wait for it ...
Graham Godfrey fires a "ladder" fastball, down the middle, just a little too high. The most tempting pitch in baseball. .... Ichiro jumps at it, takes a 1/4 swing, and then ......... juuuuuuust holds up. Check swing.
The umpire takes a long look and then ... ball one.
The count will not be 0-2, baseball's equivalent of rotting flesh disease. Or a torn ACL on the at-bat. Or pick your metaphor. The count will be 1-1. Godfrey has to try a changeup, going 2-1, and on pitch four, Ichiro vaporizes an inside fastball down into the RF corner. That's the ballgame.
...
This March, we debated whether Ichiro's #3 spot in the batting order would produce a tightened strike zone and a zippier swing. Here is the tale of the tape: Ichiro's Outside Zone Swing % remains ultra-low, 18%, and his SwStr% simply doesn't exist.
His line drives are by far the highest of his career, 25%, and he's hitting very few grounders. That may be a bad thing in isolation, but there is no doubt that Ichiro is approaching the game differently. That's a fact.
When Ichiro ripped the double, John and I thought, supposing that Ichiro were an Anaheim Angel hitting #3 with two men on. Wouldn't it feel like there was nothing you could do to stop him? ... when he's making you throw good strikes, that's not far off.
.
=== Oh Well Whatever Nevermind ===
I guess that I really don't get what Michael Saunders is trying to do. He took a swing and miss today in which his hip turn looked like Tiger Woods'.
In the middle of March, when he was hitting everything off the left-center fence, I thought that his idea was to keep the lower body quiet, take an Ichiro swing, and use his "long lever" arms to drive the ball. Here's the video of a March 16 double and here's a picture:
Run the video and watch:
- How gently he puts his lead foot back down, with "ki" going up the middle / the other way.
- How LOW his center of gravity stays.
- How the ray of energy off his belt buckle and thighs point at the shortstop and NEVER turn past that until he starts his run down the line.
- How his followthrough never goes past the 1B line.
- How that, in aiki terms, his "intentionality" is into the center of the field.
........
Now here's a video of Saunders' last successful at-bat, April 11 -- we're not talking about a strikeout here. We're talking about a best-case for him, mid-April. Here's a screen shot of his position at the same point in the swing, one month later:
to instincts. Takes a lot to groove in a golf change, right Moe?
.
=== Said All That to Say This ===
The Jaso decision, in isolation, is understandable. The Kawasaki decision, in isolation, is understandable. The moratorium on pinch-hitting is, in a vacuum, understandable (well, no, probably not).
But with Saunders' situation also, you've got a linkage here. You can't play with three automatic outs, not even for a week.
Gimme a heads-up 7-Stud match with my homie Captain Tom Franklin, and I'll play him for any amount of money.* .... if he gets three blank cards per hand. This is the American League 2012. You cannot play with three automatic outs. You got lefties running your bench like roaches, man.
Comments
Ichiro has been UNLUCKY...that is clearly indicated in the lack of BABIP despite the high LD%. I wouldn't say Ichiro's been hitting all that well...Doc is more rosy than I am on that...but his line drives are up and his Ks are down, as are his swinging strikes. That should produce a .320 average if he keeps it up all year. Big if, of course. But a 27% LD rate with normal ground ball rate yields a .320 Ichiro at minimum.
It's been 11 games and we've faced the #1-2 pitchers of our opponents 8 of those 11 games, with a series against the 2-time defending AL champs in there. There's a 15,000 mile trip in the middle of all that.
It's hard to read to much into Ichiro's OPS at this point - I just want to see his approach. So far, it'll do.
In fact, Doc, if you get a sec, I'd love to see a breakdown of our lineup's approach at the plate. Feel free to give grades. ;-) The only guy I see exceeding what I expected from him approach-wise is Seager. Montero is just putting bat to ball while Smoak is giving his ball-driving legs under him. Olivo's looked atrocious, as has Ryan (though thank you for that HR, Brendan). Saunders has forgotten what he looked like 3 weeks ago, and somebody needs to remind him before it's too late. His mind at the plate still seems locked in, but his body can't do what he wants. Maybe that demotion to get his swing right when Carp comes back will help. Figgins and Wells to CF?
I guess Figgins LOOKS better at the plate. More comfortable. It's not helping him much, but he's not a black ball of depression up there.
Our offense is in the basement again in the early going, partly due to this bizarre Tokyo-inspired scheduling. I don't expect to stay there - guys will start swinging better.
I still wish we would have added a thumper to the MOTO who wasn't a rookie or second-year man, but the kids will find their footing. Too much talent not to.
The non-Ichiro vets need to sit some, though - certainly in pinch-hitting circumstances. Why HAVE a viable bench for the first time in ages if you refuse to let the benchies get to the plate?
~G
Hersin Martinez for $1.1M.
and leave the Latin bats for others. I mean, best of luck to Hersin, but I've seen that exact scouting report too many times to get excited.
Campos is a real arm, Erasmo can pitch, Sanchez (apparently) looked good in camp, I like Arias (though he's more a conversion deal), that Pineda dude was pretty decent, some Felix kid has thrown a few innings for us...
We do all right with Latin arms.
Quick, name me the last Latin bat we signed internationally that worked out.
Right.
I'd rather spend bucks on international pitchers and domestic hitters. If we're gonna be throwing millions around, we just don't seem to get the ROI I'd like to see on foreign hitters.
JMO.
~G
Could the 27% LD rate and .295 BABIP be a case of bad luck? Yes. But that doesn't make the future look any rosier.
His 27% LD rate is almost certain to fall. Based on his entire career, (plus his age), it's going to drop. So, even if he is currently "unlucky", when his LD% drops, his BABIP isn't likely to go up. I'm not saying when his LD% drops his BABIP will drop to .235. But, there's zero reason to think if he returns to his 2011 LD% that his BABIP will be any higher than his 2011 .295.
When Sexson lost his BABIP, I was in the "he will rebound" camp. He didn't. It was at that point that I started looking at age-related decline and saw a clear pattern that shows when BABIP crashes for "aging" players, they don't tend to recover. And if they do, it is typically only for one last decent year.
I *predicted* the final Griffey debacle while everyone else was convinced he was showing up in better shape and had another good year in him. The reason is simple. Where the masses have come to accept BABIP as a 98% "luck" number, I realized that there is some portion of BABIP that is NOT luck. The difficulty is in attempting to separate one from the other.
You show me a 28 year old with a 40 point dip in BABIP I will accept that the dip is bad luck. You show me a 38 year old with a 50 point dip in BABIP the odds are strong that "the majority" of that decline is not luck-based.
Is it possible for an aging player to be unlucky for a season? Certainly. But, here's the rub. Every additional year is one where the odds of falling off the cliff increase. It is completely plausible that an age 37 player could be fine physically, have an unlucky year (and poor BABIP), and then fall off the cliff the next season. But, hindsight, what that is going to look like is that his ability was gone in that first season of decline. And for all intents and purposes, it makes no difference to total production.
When I look at Ichiro's Batted Ball chart on Fangraphs, what I see is a LD% that dropped every year from 2005-2010. But, I also see his IFH% climb dramatically for the '09 and '10 seasons. Ichiro's decline began 6 years ago. But ... like HoFers do, he adjusted. He ticked up his infield hit game and in doing so, kept his BABIP elevated. In short, he played to his strength.
Last year, his IFH% crashed ... and with it, so did his BABIP and pretty much all his stats. His LD% was nominally up, (but still below career average). Note: His LD% went up 1.8 points, but his BABIP crashed by 58 points. That's not just simply bad luck. You look at his early career - best ISO season ever (.133 in 2005) was his worst BABIP season ever - .316).
Despite all the talk about his BP exploits, Ichiro simply does not have the kind of bat speed where line drives are going to help his BABIP. Chone Figgins has a .215 BABIP last year. Is that simply bad luck? Michael Saunders had a .212. Was that just bad luck?
As an analyst, I'm attempting to discern when BABIP skew is NOT luck. IMO, the whole of Ichiro's stat line ... examining the trends for the last several years ... support the notion that he has a slider speed bat that is becoming increasingly easy to exploit.
Could I be wrong? Certainly. I hope that the ace-heavy opposition pitcher parade settles down and the entire offense wakes up. I suspect for a number of hitters that will be the case. But players do not age backward, (now that steroids are actually banned).
Yes, this early, the small denominator could make the current snapshot illusory. But, after an entire season of .295 BABIP ... another 11 games of exactly .295 BABIP certainly isn't suggestive that 2011 was just an off year ... so far. A career of LD% near 20 suggests the 27% is illusory. But the entire 2011 season suggests the .295 BABIP is real.
In truth, I would've expected a minor bounce for Ichiro in 2012 ... were it not for the move to 3rd, (detrimental to his remaining skillset), as well as a manager who thus far has shown no sense of how to implement "rest" days in a fashion to maximize production across the roster.
I can accept Doc is 100% dead-on with his analysis ... but the end result is what so far? A .690 OPS from a #3 hitter. He's adopted a completely different approach that thus far seems pointed at producing results right on par with 2011.
I can accept Doc is 100% dead-on with his analysis ... but the end result is what so far? A .690 OPS from a #3 hitter.
Ichiro is hitting the ball hard, and has missed at least 1 hit so far from a "luck" perspective, probably more like 2.
Let's be generous and say it was 3.
3 more Ichiro singles = .356/.383/.444/.827 and we're extolling Ichiro-san's greatness.
2 more singles = .333/.362/.422/.784 and we're feeling pretty good.
1 more single = .311/.340/400/.740 and we're thinking a 105ish OPS+ from Ichiro for the year is survivable if the kids come through.
I can't draw any of your sweeping conclusions from the early data, Sandy. It's just too early. I'm satisfied with Ichiro's approach thus far - it looks good to me, better than last year. Maybe that's hope and inference instead of hard, scientific assessment, but I don't think there's enough data to assess at this point.
One of Ichiro's liners bounces off a glove and one fielder can't get to a sinking liner and this convo doesn't happen. I don't see that as a good way to assess someone.
If the BABIP numbers stay down, like you infer from the limited data, then yes Ichiro will be in trouble.
If he goes 4-for-5 tomorrow (all singles) then your one-day-old analysis will look really skewed, because he'll be hitting .340/.365/.420/.785 and his BABIP will have climbed. If he goes 0-for-5, he'll be hitting .260/.288/.340/.628. Any time somebody can alter their OPS by 150 points in one game (more if he hits a double or two) then I have trouble basing my opinion on those numbers.
Combine that with April being his weakest career month and I'm gonna have to wait a little longer to jump on your bandwagon, m'man.
Gotta play it out a little longer first.
~G
Those are the last IFAs we signed that eventually produced positive value for the club offensively...if you can call it that.
And if you check his infield pops, you'll see one of the reasons that his overall numbers don't match George Brett's.
He has adjustments to make; his new approach, swinging the bat viciously, is leaving the ball TOO far in the air. He's getting popped up. He'll make those adjustments.
................
The other reason that Ichiro's numbers don't match George Brett's, is because he's Ichiro. The preseason question was whether Ichiro could rebound to HIS previous numbers.
If Ichiro starts swinging the bat lethargically, I'll be the first one to screen-shot it, as I was last time.
..................
As G says, a 95 wRC+ after 11 games against TOR's, that's clear improvement. Even if you don't want to adjust for BABIP-LD luck.
The things in your first three paragraphs. Absolutely -- the last two games, the M's have finally gotten some middle-of-the-pack SP's to face, ... lo and behold, they're getting several rallies a game.
Gotta give some credit to the pitchers.
...........
11 games in, there are sizzlers and fizzlers. Ichiro is a notable sizzler, but it's a lot easier to see that if we compare him to his own 2011, as opposed to suddenly deciding that "American League 3 Hole Hitter" is the new baseline.
League 2011: 19.6% line drives, .295 BABIP.
Ichiro 2012: 27.3% line drives, .295 BABIP.
............
For somebody to point at a guy with 27.3% line drives, and say "that guy isn't swinging all that well," I don't know where to go from there. What do you do? Let's talk about something else.
............
Ichiro's wRC+ of 95 is up from his 82 last year, but after it isn't yet fully reflecting his great swings.
It's 11 games. He keeps getting good pitches and putting enthusiastic swings on him, he will have a good season by his own standards.
He's not J.D. Drew, obviously.
so we should start looking better offensively as soon as tomorrow. ;-)
One can hope, anyway. Our pitchers are pulling their weight, one very ugly and painful Texas game aside.
Now that we're out of a playoff-level opening 10 games, hopefully we can warm up the lumber.
~G
it feels like we have signed tons of these guys, and most of them come in with Carlos Triunefel type hype and most never even make it out of the minors :(
However you never find Miguel Cabrera if you don't ever sign him ;) Maybe it is 812th times the charm :)
:cpoints:
If I were him, I'd be swinging that 60-oz bat until my arms were numb. Even if it left my arms dead during the game. Better that than the alternative.
The "short throw" knees and bat followthru are his only shot, IMHO.
They keep rolling the dice trying to come up with the next Alfonso Soriano, and there's an argument for that, but if they're going to buy $1-2M lotto tickets I'd rather try to come up with the next Felix Hernandez :- )
Sandy's broader point, I think, was that Ichiro's LD% wasn't likely to stay 27%...but that isn't, IMHO a lucky LD%...it's a "hot" LD%...he's had a good approach up there and gotten good peripheral results...just not as many hits as he normally would.
I don't think Ichiro's going to finish the year hitting .320...but I do think he's hit like .320 Ichiro used to hit thus far and been unlucky not to get credit for it. I think if/when he comes up short of .320 it'll be because he's aging and doesn't have the stamina to keep this level of performance up all year.
Thanks Doc,
And you're exactly right. Stress an pressure bring you back to your old swing habits. It's a tough thing to do, to change years of acquired bad swing mojo.
It has looked to me like Saunders always reverts to the guy who thinks there's a short RF porch that belongs to him. I've become pretty worried about him lately. He just doesn't look like the guy we saw in ST. Your pictures say much. He just doesn't look like a guy who can regularly hit MLB chuckers.
Carp has his 3 Tacoma games in, he's about ready. Saunders is certainly in the mix of the guy to go, because Z won't release Figgins.
Saunders may well be on his way down. Could be Liddi, I suppose.
I don't know aobut 60 oz. bats and bungee cords, but I do know that Saunders is much more dangerous when he looks like he's trying to hit everything over the head of the SS.
Figgins, Saunders, Olivo.....They can't hit.
moe
As the Mariners have swirled the drain in 2008-11, Ichiro's swings at bad pitches, AND the rate at which he connects on those pitches, have gone up --- > and his BABIP has fallen.
He was arm-swinging at lousy pitches, dinking them into play, and, obviously, not hitting them hard. This hit its zenith in 2011, with a 36% OOZ swing rate and an 85% contact rate on those. Producing a sudden drop in BABIP (along with the league-leading Diamond Gems scored on him).
..........
As usual, I politely question how many Mariner games Sandy sees.
A glance at the actual games this year tells you that Ichiro is getting much better pitches, and is attacking them with a lot more gusto. C'mon: Ichiro has been a great player every season except 2011.
The M's have faced TOR's in 9 of 11 games, and Ichiro's batting .289 with an unlucky BABIP. Check him in two weeks.
Let's see if I can summarize my position.
Doc: "Ichiro has really taken well to the #3 slot nicely. He's seeing the ball better ... is far more selective ... and he's hitting the ball extremely well. The rest of 2012 should be great."
Sandy: "But his results so far are a basic replay of his 2011 results."
Matt: "His results are suppressed because he's been unlucky."
Sandy: "Then he's been "unlucky" for 172 games in a row. At what point exactly does "unluck" turn into "un-talent?"
Doc: "But if you saw him, you'd understand."
Sandy: "I completely trust your opinion of how he looks, Doc. Absolutely. But, if Ichiro has done everything you say ... if his LD% is a *hot* LD% as Matt says, (and I agree that this is the case) ... and he's only running a .295 BABIP today ... and he's only running a .690 OPS today ... exactly what happens to his production when he hits a cold spell?
Matt: "But a single 4 for 5 day and all of your statistical arguments vanish."
Sandy: "Absolutely true. But the converse of that would be?" What if we look at what Ichiro has done just over the last 10 days ... excluding only the 1st game of the season?
May29-April 15:
.225/.256/.325 (.581) -- BABIP = .231
Sandy: "So, the last 10 games of Ichiro ... successfully adopting a new approach ... and running a sky-high LD% ... and non-existent strike-out rate, (he hasn't fanned in 8 games) ... is we have Ronny Cedeno hitting third?!? And I'm supposed to be enthused about this?
One of my favorite things about Doc's approach is his old saw: "If I was wrong, how would I know?" Doc and Matt both "see" a solid hitter with a solid approach and are happy about it. My question is this: Given what you are seeing on the field, what *production* would you be expecting to come from that? If this were Ichiro in 2002 or 2003 ... with this approach ... what would his slashline have been then? Because I believe the difference between that theorhetical slash-line and his current real-world slash-line is the difference between how much his skills have actually declined.
My question to both of you is ... at what point ... how many PAs ... how many games played ... does Ichiro have to run a sub-.700 OPS before the production trumps the eyes-on assessment? This is no easy question.
Coming into the season, I was expecting a .350 April followed by a rapid decline. I would've been prepared for a transition where Ichiro was trying something radical, (like the Ackley swing), and might be struggling, in which case there could be an eventual leap in production. For me, the current situation is the worst of both worlds. He has "successfully" transitioned, and is actually currently "hot". Yet, his production remains tepid at best. That's a horrible combo for projecting production forward.
With Saunders, you can posit that with more work and dilligence, maybe the "quiet" swing gradually takes hold and he stops reverting to detrimental instincts so readily. That's a path for eventual improvement despite immediate woes.
With Ichiro ... with everything falling into place ... and a .690 OPS to show for it ... my perspective on the positive spin essentially boils down to (and I'm not intentially being snarky here ... I just can't come up with a better analogy) ... "He's not really hitting .690 ... he's actually hitting .850 ... because he looks like he's hitting .850."
I don't mean to be short, but your summary of my position is incorrect. He's running a hot LD% and is not getting his hits on it. You seem to be arguing that this implies that Ichiro has no skill for getting hits on line drives? His stats are not a replay of 2011...in 2011 he had the lowest line drive rate of his career, the lowest K/BB of his career, the highest swinging strike rate of his career, the highest out of zone swing percentage of his career and yes...the lowest BABIP of his career. This year...the BABIP is the same but only because of bad luck. If he gets the normal BABIP on each of line drives, he would have three extra hits and be clicking along with a net BABIP of .333. The rest of the numbers I listed from 2011 are no longer the case in 2012. So...yeah...it's not the same Ichiro.
You seem to think that my position is that Ichiro's .295 from last year was unlucky...neither Doc nor I said that. Our position is that Ichiro's .295 BABIP THIS year is unlucky...last year, when he wasn't hitting line drives, his BABIP was about right. This year...he IS hitting the ball hard so we should expect a different outcome. The lack of a different outcome should tell you that your small-sample BABIP number is the problem...not Ichiro's approach.
Coming into the season, I was expecting a .350 April followed by a rapid decline. I would've been prepared for a transition where Ichiro was trying something radical, (like the Ackley swing), and might be struggling, in which case there could be an eventual leap in production. For me, the current situation is the worst of both worlds. He has "successfully" transitioned, and is actually currently "hot". Yet, his production remains tepid at best. That's a horrible combo for projecting production forward.
1) Why would you expect a .350 April when Ichiro has only ever done that once? April is his worst career month.
April OPS worse than his current one:
2003: .623
2004: .613
2008: .671
Number of Aprils with an OPS over .800: three
You're asking him to do something out of the norm (ie, hit for more than a .750 OPS in April - his average for the month is .747 - or exceed a .350 BA) and calling that normal. How is that an accurate assessment of his skillset, current or otherwise?
2) He IS going through a transition. Moving from slapping a force-out to the hole at short and beating it out because no one is on base, to swinging with runners on base and not having that option available...that actually is a transition worth noting. I'm very curious to see his hit chart in September and see how it's altered his approach, but I would have to think it's altered it some. Having your "runners on" numbers go from about a third to almost a half - before the offense even gets going - isn't a nothing change.
But if we were making the "Ichiro's dead" call based on his April OPS he'd have been dead 3 or 4 times already.
I think you're calling it too early, Sandy. Doc is probably frustrated because he had this argument on the internet in 2003, and 2004, and 2008, and any other time Ichiro starts off slowly. "Age has caught him. Dead Ichiro."
Based on last year's results, Ichiro might well be dying. So yes, then Doc goes back to, "if Ichiro was NOT a corpse, how would you know?" Two ugly Chone-Figgins-like, overwhelmed at-bats that somehow produced hits would solve the OPS explanation that you're married to but would actually be a thumbs down as far as Ichiro's life-status goes.
I don't want to re-up with Ichiro after this year. It would be easier for me to believe that Ichiro is done being productive in any way so that the Ms are not even tempted to pay a singles-hitting RF about to turn 40 some crazy $15 mil / yr salary.
I've seen all the games, and he doesn't look done, man. Projecting this as a top end after 11 games because YOU believe he should have started off with a better statline and not doing so failed the expectations you held for what a successful Ichiro start would look like...
That's not on Ichiro. You still might be right - but you're using a sample against largely TOR starting pitching and excellent bullpens that includes a crazy travel schedule, Ichiro's worst month, a lineup position and expectation change...
And then assuming that doubters of your hypothesis are just making excuses. It's a weird pitch for reason.
~G
His .295 BABIP in 2011 was not about luck, but ability. We agree.
His .295 BABIP so far is unlucky, based on his 27% LD Rate. I can accept this as a reasonable premise. I understand the rationale. But, while I can accept this "might" be the case, I completely disagree that this "must" be the case. Why? Because when Sexson and Griffey "lost it", their BABIP levels "decoupled" with their previously established levels ... and the same decoupling of BABIP with previously established levels is very common among aging players.
But, even with that, I can agree if his current LD% had a normal BABIP rate, his current BABIP would be .333.
But, my larger point is this. The chance of him maintaining a 27% LD rate is effectively zero. The chance of him maintaining a 4.2% strikeout rate is effectively zero. The chance of him maintaining his BIP rate of 92% is effectively zero. Based on these numbers AND Doc's eyes-on evaluation, I accept that Ichiro has been "in the zone" thus far.
My position is this: WHEN ... (not "if"), his LD% drops ... WHEN his K-rate rises ... WHEN his BIP rate drops ... his BABIP is going to be "no better" than .295 ... and is, in fact, likely to be worse.
If you are correct - that his "real" current BABIP is .333 ... and he's just been unlucky, then when he cools off, he drops to .295-ish ... and we get a repeat of 2011.
If I am correct - that his "real" current BABIP is in fact .295 ... and his skills have eroded, like Griffey and Sexson and countless other aging players before him ... then when his currently stellar peripherals drop his BABIP is going to tank horribly and instead of a repeat of Ichiro '11 ... we're going to get a repeat of Ronny Cedeno '09.
Neither of these results is good for the team.
What I don't see is ... what is the upside? Is it Ichiro maintaining a 27% LD rate, a 92% BIP rate and a 4.2% K-rate for 161 games ... and when the BABIP climbs to where it should be, then the production arrives?
in this case:
"My position is this: WHEN ... (not "if"), his LD% drops ... WHEN his K-rate rises ... WHEN his BIP rate drops ... his BABIP is going to be "no better" than .295 ... and is, in fact, likely to be worse."
He would probably BABIP .400 :)
Seriously though, I am sure we could find PLENTY of examples of batters that had a ZERO percent LD rate, struck out half the time and put the ball in play only half the time, yet batted .400... OVER ELEVEN GAMES.
Lets just all hope for 3 squibbers for seeing eye singles tonight from Ichiro so his LD% can go down AND his BABIP can go up and we can all just breathe a sigh of relief that the baseball stats normalized :)
Great questions, G.
Why would you expect a .350 April when Ichiro has only ever done that once?
First ... more accurately I should have said "If Ichiro is going to hit .350 in any month, it is probably going to be April."
Yes ... that goes against his career norm. However, it fits EXACTLY with what he did in 2011. The entire foundation for discussing Ichiro at this moment is directly due to the understanding by everyone that Ichiro is *NOT* the same hitter he has been for the bulk of his career. In 2011, he had a .758 OPS for the month. He didn't crack .700 for any other month. That's 5 consecutive months under .700.
My premise here is that humans, as a species, as we age, heal more slowly than earlier in our lives. For the first 9 years of his career his body could repair daily damage in 24 hours. So, he was basically as fresh tomorrow as today. But, at age 38, if his body takes 36 hours to repair or 48 ... the end result is damage accumulates instead of healing. His body will be closest to 100% on opening day. Thereafter ... if he continues to play every day, (which has to date been confirmed), then the wear and tear will exacerbate whatever actual skill decline there is.
2) He IS going through a transition
If I accept this ... then what is supposed to improve from here moving forward? His LD%? Not likely. His contact rate? Basically impossible. His K-rate? Fuhgetaboutit.
Based on Doc's assessment, he is swinging ONLY at strikes in the zone, and he's belting them for line drives. His walk rate could certainly improve. But that would require some degree of cooperation from the opposition. The fear of Ichiro is gone at this point. Heck, even last year Ichiro was IBBed 13 times. Anyone think that's happening again?
I've seen all the games, and he doesn't look done, man
And this is what scares me. That's the consensus from everyone who has watched him. He doesn't "look" done. Yet, he's still running a .295 BABIP and .690 OPS. Yes, it's small sample. Yes, I could be suffering from higher expectations of a quicker start.
But ... before the season began ... when he was slotted to hit 3rd ... my assessment was as follows:
He'd steal less, because of the lineup issues. (1 attempt, successful in 11 games).
He'd try to hit harder, (27% line drive rate)
For Ichiro, hitting harder drives his BABIP down, not up. (.295 BABIP)
He'd get fewer infield hits, (11.1% so far - similar to 2011).
I felt he'd start quickly because of the extra motivation of proving something after his poor 2011, coupled with the motivation to excel as a #3 hitter. The "mental" issues would work in his favor. The lineup variables work against his remaining skillset. The aging issues will accumulate as the year unfolds.
The issue of reading the tea leaves for aging stars is one not heavily studied. My basic take is that decoupling of BABIP with career norms tends to be the canary in the coal mine. That hit Ichiro in 2011. For me ... the upside scenario would be something like Jeter last year ... gaining back half of the BABIP plunge. But, Jeter in all honesty had more tools to play with to buy another year.
Hey. I'd be more than happy if Ichiro proves me wrong ... hits .850 in May and June and wins another Gold Glove. But, when I look at the numbers ... I just don't see how that happens.
Other than being 7 years older, what's the difference in these stat lines?
2004: 63.8% GB rate, 18.4% LD rate, 17.9 % FB rate
2011: 59.9% GB rate, 19.1% LD rate, 21.1% FB rate
Ichiro had 262 hits in 2004 with that set of "decline" stats, and then half-a-dozen more productive years. In 2011 he cratered, hard.
It was a BABIP issue. He posted a .399 in 2004, and a .295 in 2011. And you're using BABIP as your sole defining characteristic of impending doom for aging hitters. Ichiro's BABIP dropped, therefore he must be done.
Your whole theory that he is likely to crash and burn again, harder, and end his career seems based on comparisons to aging hitters who...hit nothing like Ichiro. Why not use Kenny Lofton, Pete Rose? Those guys are more like Ichiro than Sexson and Griffey for sure.
Kenny Lofton had his BABIP gutter out in 2000, at age 33. He went from a BABIP monster to having 5 straight years where it only once climbed above .300 (.306). His OPS+ marks those years? 100, 89, 102, 106, 95. Then it came back (.373, .324, .316 his last 3 years). So even when his OPS+ cratered it didn't kill his productivity, and it didn't STAY gone as you would expect from an age-related BABIP decline.
Pete Rose lost his BABIP edge in '82, age 41, put up three seasons between 90 and 100 OPS+ along with a stinker, and then left the game. He still had 3 years past where Ichiro is now, though as was somehow talented enough to still be an average hitter at age 44.
"Ichiro can't keep his value with a cratered BABIP, because he doesn't walk. Lofton and Rose took walks."
Okay. Personally that wouldn't be my takeaway. My takeaway would be "BABIP age-related declines might be more detrimental to HR hitters who are inflating their BIP numbers by clearing the fences. Losing 4 bases to a fly ball that should have been a HR hurts more than losing a single."
I would also wonder if the early LD% numbers from Ichiro are indicative of his method of combatting slowing legs and BABIP decline - squaring up more balls.
I've said before that if I was Ichiro I would investigate swinging a bat that wasn't as skinny to keep my BABIP high. Showing off pin-point accuracy is no longer necessary - serving singles to left is, and that's easier with a bigger barrel and sweet spot on the bat than what Ichiro's provides.
It looks to me like he's being more selective, not swinging out of the zone, and trying to square up more balls. That's another possible solution to "weak grounders to short due to an artificially large, player-created strike zone."
I would give him a wider bat and 25 games a year off, and see what he could do. His own choice is to keep his swing% on stuff outside the zone at a ridiculously low level.
I guess I wonder what you believe his productivity should be this year. I'm hoping for a 105 OPS+. You seem to believe this .690 OPS is the absolute best we can hope for from Ichiro because his LD% is so high and this is all he's getting out of it. If he OPS's .800 in May like he usually does, what would be your reason for that? Luck?
I mean, if this is as good as Ichiro can possibly do, and his BABIP will never recover any fraction of his high-water marks, then how in the world could he do that?
It seems your answer is, "he can't do that without the BABIP being lucky."
Guess I'll hope for the sort of luck Ichiro has always managed to find, then.
~G
I don't care if he wants to or not, he should get days off. He shouldn't play more than 140ish games, IMO. Your point on healing is one I believe in, especially for aging players. Kenny Lofton and Pete Rose were able to remain average hitters long after their expiration date because they weren't playing full seasons (and though Rose played full 162 game seasons for several years past Ichiro's current age, I wouldn't recommend it).
Early this year though, I can't tell if he's played all the games because of our schedule or not. He got several days off after Tokyo, he got Easter Sunday off, and he got yesterday off. That's 3 breaks in the first 11 games. He hasn't been given a game off yet, but the weird schedule has added to off days so far, as well. Another anomaly that makes things hard to judge.
~G
I wouldn't worry about Ichiro's playing time. If Montero doesn't start catching 80% of the games and Carp and Guti hit when they get back...Ichiro will get days off jsut to find at bats for Figgins, Seager and Wells.