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Q. Why would the Mariners want to deal, say, Taijuan Walker or James Paxton (in March) for Gonzalez, considering that those guys could be better than him anyway?
A. At such time as a Dustin Ackley proves it in the big leagues, even for a month or two, his value doubles.
The M's minor leaguers are as good as it gets. But they haven't jumped over the hurdle that Gio Gonzalez has.
The MID scenario: even if Gio doesn't get any better, he gives you 3.5 cheap WAR. There are a few guys who don't.
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Q. What's the worst thing about Gio?
A. Taro ain't going to like the way he carries his arm at the top.
The DWN scenario for Gio is for him to get injured. That's all. He already is a very good starting pitcher and he is going to get better.
... note, however, that Gio's velocity is up. He has gained velo steadily throughout his career, and he was as strong as a horse in August-September 2011.
The lower the through-slot, the better. Consider Randy Johnson's health. Human beings are designed to throw, sidearm.
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Q. What's the best thing about Gio?
A. He's one or two mechanical plateaus away from being a healthy Erik Bedard. Lead the league in K rate, despite plentiful groundballs, left hand with velocity, the whole nine yards. It's just flat fun to watch him pitch.
Gio's already at, is already delivering, 3.5 WAR per season right now, in his embryonic stages. He's a sneeze away from delivering 6.0 per year, in exactly the way Jon Lester did.
I don't notice that the El Sids and Erikkk's become the best pitcher in the league. But the UP is that settle in very comfortably at 5+ WAR ... prorated, 200 IP.
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Q. What about the changeup?
A. Throws it 9% of the time and gets splattered when he does.
Lose the changeup, kid. The rest of your game will come around all the quicker. Did El Sid throw one? Does Erikkk? Did Randy Johnson?
Dr. D would be seriously excited about Gio Gonzalez coming to Safeco and ditching the changeup. I'd be counting my 6 WAR and laughing all the way to the bank.
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Q. You'd give a "Dan Haren type package"? Ouch.
A. If you could exclude the Big Three in the minors, give Beane his choice of (say) Nick Franklin, Jose Campos, Vinnie Catricala, etc etc., I'd be all over it.
Beane is notorious for, and very good at, selecting 4-5 minor leaguers that the fans don't know about. If he took, say, Campos and Franklin as the hyped picks, and (say) Erasmo, Forrest Snow, and Chiang as the "filler," fans would bury Beane in crumpled Dixie cups. But he'd be laughing all the way to the arbitration bank, as usual.
See, you're talking about a 5-WAR player who doesn't burn your payroll stash. You want to dance with a cheap impact player, you gotta pay the man blowin' sax. C'mon. You're talking about adding a 4-5 win guy and then still doing everything else you were gonna do, also. This is a bonus addition. Taro said something about getting drastic, neh? Here are his bonus 5 WAR.
Other than the Prince derby, this is the one rumor that has gotten me enthused. Objectively speaking, I'd rather see a Gio trade even than the Darvish fantasy. With Gio you could spend money elsewhere.
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If Taijuan were the dealbreaker, hmmmmmmmm. Agonizing choice. I'd lean toward. ... whattayou think?
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BABVA,
Dr D