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20-team roto champ Cool Papa Bell goes 6-for-6, tying Cobb's and, um, Bell's marks:
I figured the Cardinals to be a real threat since they have to replace Pujols. But their GM was interviewed this week and had this to say:
Can we safely assume you will not be in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes?
“That’s a safe assumption.”
With that things are looking fabulous.
During the season people just assumed that there would be twenty teams throwing crazy offers at Prince and that he was guaranteed to get a deal that was absolutely ridiculous. As I tried to explain, the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers all would be completely uninvolved which meant the M's actually were in a great position to not only land him but get him at a reasonable price.
So far that seems to be exactly the case. There is absolutely not a bidding war going on, instead we just have a handful of teams timidly sniffing around and none of them have given any indication they will go all out for Fielder.
What we have been hearing is that teams don't have the heart to give him a monster deal and Boras' faux-cockiness is giving away the game which is that he doesn't have the type of market he was expecting.
Let's review the six-hit afternoon:
1. The Cardinals were the scary, overlooked team. Agreed. When Dr. D handicapped the field, he thought he'd be overlooking something very simple, and when CPB brought up the Cards, Dr. D's stomach did a slow roll to the left.
NL Central, good geographical location, team with $$$$ earmarked, etc etc.
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2. The Cards bow out. In this case, I would gingerly assume that they mean what they say. No reason for them to gutkick their fans this week if they didn't have to.
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3. With that, things are looking fab. Personally, I can't even grok a single team, other than the Mariners, that could get this job done. The Cubs are almost the only team that we grok to be half in it.
The usual caveats apply. This is a stealth winter. We know, we know.
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4. During the season, fans were overrating the Fielder market. I'm the chief culprit here. People were saying for two months, hey, the Yankees are out, the Red Sox are out, this guy has no where to go.
Dr. D laughed in his glove in LF. There is always somebody, guys. Check the market in December.
Except that Dr. D was absolutely wrong. The yellow-pad checklist really did have all of the suitors crossed off before it began.
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5. Handful of teams timidly sniffing around. Exactly, and if it were not for the Mariners, Fielder might wind up with a "bridge deal" and hit the market in a year or two.
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6. Boras' faux-cockiness. That is exactly what he's showing, and Zduriencik sits up on his perch in the dragon lair with narrow serpent eyes.
It's fun to see Boras' wan smile, and even more fun to see it from Seattle.
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=== Da Bakery, Dept. ===
True, Geoffy has been a bit too wrapped-around-the-axle in philosophical debates the last month or two. True, the pseudo-intellectual crowd has been scoffing louder and louder.
But you will concede that every author has his strengths. Even if you're not a Baker fan -- as I assuredly am -- you will concede that Baker has more access to Mariners' personnel than any blogger in Seattle.
You'll concede that he's an accomplished ex-athlete, in great shape, with a keen feel for the game on-field and off. You'll concede that he's been within hand-grenade range of a boatload of MLB contract business, before and after the contracts.
It's not the gospel truth, but it weighs more heavily than it would from any other single author in Seattle. Some amigo asked Geoff, bottom line, do you think the Mariners get Fielder, and Geoffy says, Gut feeling, I think Fielder comes to Seattle. (Main reason: how badly Zduriencik wants him.)
The main thing I fear, at this point, is Fielder getting angry at the situation, and doing something "irrational," like going back to Milwaukee to spite the market. We heard that Pujols, like, didn't meet with St. Louis execs and pointedly allowed them to get their news secondhand. These athletes can be prima donnas.
SSI has had Seattle 55%, Field 45% for a week or so. I'll warily slide that to 60-40.
Be Afraid,
Dr D
The only MLB Trade Rumors news today:
1. The Marlins are well-and-truly out. Supposedly.
2. Fielder wants 10 years.
..........
You'd think the M's and Boras could work something out on team options with buyouts, or somesuch.
If Fielder really wants the biggest, longest deal possible then there aren't any other competitors right now. It's just a matter of waiting until Boras accepts reality and gets serious about negotiating.
I think Boras' reputation may really be working against him in this instance. Everyone knows that he's going to drag things out, make outrageous demands, be extremely difficult, and play teams off of each other. If you're unsure if you really want Fielder and assume that his price will be sky high, then you might just not even bother with the whole charade. Much better to pursue other options while they are still available. And if every team except one decides it isn't worth the effort to even talk to Boras because they think it's pointlessly painful, then he loses all of his leverage.
I know this has been said before,
There doesn't seem to be any other good options besides Fielder. If you have 16 million to spend this year, and 36 next year, where would you spend it?
Yu Darvish seems like he is worth some money, as were Pujols, and Reyes, but what about these third tier guys? Is there any other way to spend money this off season?
I'd rather watch Mike Carp and Casper Wells and TrayyVONN, than another mediocre over the hill type who is brought in for his veteran presence, and delivers a .240 average to go with some shoddy slugging.
Even if Mariners bloggers are divided in how long Prince should be paid, nobody argues that he is on the very top shelf of free agents. He is the big slugging bat that some people want, he is the high OBP choosey moneyball bat that other people want, and his hitting is all around above reproach.
I've said this before so if I'm stringing my own noose over the branches of the Tree of Naivety then please let me know. Honestly.
Assumptions:
1) The reson for a baseball team to be 'fiscally responsible' is so that the allocation of your limited annual budget is maximized for the purposes of obtaining the most amount of talent possible in order to win the most games.
2) Premium, top-shelf talent is rare and has a larger net impact on the ability of a given team to win than the sum of his tools.
3) Prince Fielder is a premium top-shelf talent.
4) Prince Fielder's skillset is such that his services would have a greater impact for the Mariners than to most any other team and will signifigantly increase the teams ability to win.
5) In order to compete in the new look AL West against the NY Angels of Anaheim and the Boston Rangers, a genuine on-field product from the front office MUST have a signifigant offensive addition THIS off-season.
6) Any offensive upgrade that is NOT Prince Fielder would have to come via trade and would cost the team dearly in terms of premium prospects, especially in the prospect-hoarding climate of today's baseball. In essence, money would be cheaper than prospects for this front-office.
7) The Mariners have been profitable (see Forbes).
8) The attendance has been declining but the fanbase has proven, time and time again, that it WILL support a winner.
Please let me know if I went wrong anywhere or if I'm missing anything of signifigance. The only conclusion that I can draw from these assumptions is that the Mariners priority would be to sign Prince and squash any competition threating to poach. Considering this to be true, if Jack were able to get this deal done at less than 8/180 than his reputation as a Dark Knight Joker at the negotiating table will be severely underrated.
Results are not in yet, but what about the possibility of M's swooping in on Darvish, then turning around and doing a Pineda/Votto deal?
Just noodling out loud...
That could be holding up the Fielder issue. A signing like that would put some downward pressure on the Fielder market.
Personally I like the other dream scenario of just expanding the budget and signing both. Then deal from your prospects.
We'll see.
This was about the time Beltre (a Boras client) signed with the M's in '05 ('04?).
the date is etched in my brain. Of course it could be etched wrong.
The thing is as mojican pointed out, Fielder is not Sexson, not even a Sexson-plus. He is hardly a TTO bat. He's a true hitter as well as a slugger, and the two are not the same. He is EXACTLY the guy you would design as your #4 hitter, the only caveat being you'd prefer he didn't hit into so many double plays. But there's been a ton of prototype #4s that hit into double plays.
What do you guys think about the Cubs going for a shorter term deal with a higher AAV, like say 5 years, $30 million. Prince gets his big pay day, gets more per year than Pujols, gets to free agency again as a 32 year old. Plus, Theo and Co, who don't want to be hamstrung by a longer long term deal might be able to convince themselves that a 5-year deal is doable...
Had a dream last night that Prince was signed (Marlins) and I woke up unhappy for a second.
-Nick
I'd wake up unhappy for about 90 days....
The 5x30 thing seems to be the kind of concept that Chicago is hoping for, but we keep in mind, the NPV on 8 x 22 is not much higher than 5 x 30. That's why the clubs are always leaning toward more years rather than fewer.
I think by "fewer years, more dollars" the Cubs are talking about $24 or $25M vs $22, rather than $30M.
If the Cubs were to offer 5 x $30M, then (1) Prince would probably jump on it and (2) the invisible hammer would come down from Selig for hurting the other 29 teams...
Signalling, as Benihana mentioned, what years and dollars they'd go. Would expect that the ballpark figures will be on the twitter-net shortly.