This was exactly the point I was making this summer. The 2011 Seattle Mariners recieved a negative WAR out of some $55 million of their roster. Figgins, Guti, Ichiro, Aardsma, Olivo, Bradley et al. The argument that we can't spend $20+ million on Fielder because he just might someday not be worth it is belied by the fact that we spent close to $60 million on players last year who most certainly were not worth it. Of course, the result (95 loses) inherently followed.
However I, for one, feel much less confident about the odds of the Francisco, Capuano, Doumit, Snyder, Cuddyer, Willingham, "bargain bin" being worth the money than I do with Fielder.
If the M's continue to lose in the future, the problem won't be that they are spending too much on Fielder, it'll be that they are spending too much on many, many, others. One guy doesn't make or break a 25/40 man roster, no matter what the M's would be paying him
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It poses an interesting risk management perspective. The "no" on Fielder camp seem to be taking the standpoint that roster flexibility is of the utmost value up until the M's are "ready". The "yes" on Fielder camp seem to argue that in order for roster flexibility to reach its highest value you must have stars
Anyway, this has been debated ad nauseum. Sign somewhere already please Mr. Fielder.
- Ben.
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Sez Spec,
Of course, it's possible that your big free agent signing could be a massive, complete, total, not-even-on-the-postseason-roster bust, and your top-of-the-draft talent could stay healthy and coalesce anyway, and you could get lucky with some mid-grade signings and make it all the way despite that. Not that you want to bank on it, but . . .
See also:
Just so!
..... We don't need to see FA misfires as death knells. The tower bell gongs, your team rolls over, and pays Albert Belle to scowl from the stands as you lose 100 games five years in a row. :- )
Actually, teams can work around deadwood, and most good teams have lots of it on the payroll. It wouldn't be fun to pay Prince Fielder $24M per year if he pulled an Adam Dunn (or Kevin Mitchell, or Bob Horner, or Travis Hafner, or even a Jose Canseco), but neither would it be the end of playoff baseball in Seattle.
Just last year, Ichiro made $18M for 0.2 WAR .... Let's take a breath. Suppose that Ichiro repeats, and suppose that Smoak, Carp, Ackley, and Seager merely repeat the UP versions of themselves that we've already seen. Suppose that the Paxton-Hultzen kids pull Michael Pinedas on the AL this year. And suppose we sign Prince Fielder.
Would $27M worth of deadwood -- Ichiro, Figgins -- stop us in that scenario?
Has Vernon Wells, at $26M last year and $21M the next three, stopped the Angels from carrying on with their attack on the pennant?
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Or, we could look at it this way. Supposing that the Rangers got Josh Hamilton injured in 2012 - would they be done? What's the difference between Prince Fielder declining to 2-3 WAR, or his simply getting injured? You don't throw in the towel because of injuries.
This focus was precisely why the M's powerflushed the #2 left hand pitcher who ever lived. He asked for 3/$27M and the Mariners said, "Suppose something happened and Randy weren't able to pitch at that level? What then?"
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The Mariners are about to see 6 or even 8 cheap, club-controls players deliver $10 or $15 or $20M worth of value, per season, for peanuts. One Ichiro cancels one of them, right? Ichiro makes $18M and delivers zip; Michael Pineda makes zip and delivers $18M.
Of course it's annoying to pay Vernon Wells $21M and get zip. But it doesn't mean you have to flip over the Monopoly board and start a Risk game. It means that you'll need one or two more kids to come through to balance it out. Or, in some cities, raise the payroll again the next winter.
I liked the way a radio deejay put it. "Just because the Yankees don't like A.J. Burnett doesn't mean that they never sign a free agent again."
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Obviously, if you think there's much of a chance of Fielder pulling an Adam Dunn, you don't sign him. Alternatively, if you think he is (at long last) your Edgar Martinez successor, you might do something else.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Negative WAR out of (say) $55M .... count up the 8 playoff teams in 2011 and see what those figures are for all of them. We'd put it in the sidebar.
They paid Jeff Bagwell $18,000,000 and only got a fraction of a win from him. Yet they still went to the World Series. I see no point in worrying about Fielder sinking the team 7 or 8 years from now. We can cross that bridge when we get there.
Three overwhelming SP's, along with Berkman and Ensberg, carried the entire ballclub.
One of the extreme Stars & Scrubs rosters you'll see. The Mariners would emulate that by getting career years out of Felix, Pineda, a rookie, and Prince and Ackley.
One key for the Astros was, all of the supporting batters hit 75-80, not 50.
What about a overpayed Figgins for overpayed Hafner trade? He's still runs an .860+ OPS against Right-Handed pitching, Figgins could fill the Orlando Cabrera role for their team next season.
With what disposition of Smoak, Carp, Fielder etc?
After looking and seeing he's owed 13 mil for 2 more seasons and Chone is owed 9 mil for the same 2, seemed like a good price swap. If we sign Fielder, it probably wouldn't work unless you moved Smoak for Reynolds or for pitching or for whatever, Carp could move to Left. A Mark Reynolds/Travis Hafner DH would be the complicated way of cobbling together Jim Thome.
even with his slowed bat and barking shoulders, can still show you the brute strength against run-of-the-mill RHP's, like all but the top 15 guys, maybe.
Big strong TTO guy at this point, and properly deployed he can still help a club a lot, IMHO.
Clever idea, swapping him and Chone.
Fielder is a more complete hitter. Dunn has always been a TTO hitter. It just seems that this profile ages earlier and I never was a big fan of Chicago signing him into his decline phase. Signs of decline were evident in 2010.
And you get a superstar. Prince's HIT ability improved in 2012, as well.
Could be coming into his best seasons, judging by his component skills. Bet you Shandler forecasts a potential UP level that is beyond his previous highs.
HQ Forecaster coming in a couple days ... >:- ]