I have nearly written something the last couple of times I've seen Wilhelmsen.  I can't recall the last guy I watched who had such easy smoldering heat.  He makes the most natural rock and most natural (easy) knee kick and then throws the most unnatural missile. 
He smells and looks and acts like a starter. 
Greg Maddux made throwing a ball look that easy.  But he threw at 92, maybe.
Wilhelmsen's velocity is as freaky as much of what Pineda does.
If you figure that Guti's last inning with the M's has come and gone, then you figure Wells and Trayvonn are interchaneable as CF/4th OF until one separates himself.  Carp can handle the leather in LF just fine.  His "Swoboda"-esque diving snag the other night was very pretty.
And I know his average has dropped, but I like almost every PA I watch him in.  He finds the pitch he wants and puts a masher swing on it.  And his masher swings are aggressive but controlled, in a way, too.
Bat him 4th.  150+ times a year.

I can't recall the last guy I watched who had such easy smoldering heat.  He makes the most natural rock and most natural (easy) knee kick and then throws the most unnatural missile. 
He smells and looks and acts like a starter. 
Greg Maddux made throwing a ball look that easy.  But he threw at 92, maybe.
Wilhelmsen's velocity is as freaky as much of what Pineda does.

Paxton throws like that too.  He has an interesting behind-the-back start but he throws so EASILY, it's like playing catch - at 97 mph.  At least the talk of moving HIM to the bullpen has been silenced.
I would love for Wilhelmsen to be given a chance to start.  I think he's got the arm for it for sure.  But Rafael Soriano had a fastball that couldn't be touched...and nothing else, and eventually moved to the pen with great success.
There's nothing wrong with being a pen arm.  When the guy could be a plus starter, that's more of an issue, but Wilhelmsen got himself shelled in AA in the rotation.
Paxton in AA:  1.85 ERA, 12K / 3BB / 6.5 H per 9.
Wilhelmsen in AA: 5.49 ERA, 6 K / 4 BB / 10 H per 9. 
Paxton doesn't yet have total command of his breaking stuff, but it IS deadly.  Tom doesn't have any breaking stuff to speak of, and when he went down to AA to located it he couldn't.  He's got the fastball, a plus pro fastball RIGHT NOW, and Zduriencik doesn't have 2 years to leave a pro-ready arm in the minors.  It's all hands on deck right now, and that makes Tom's likelihood of starting a longer shot than it would be if we had already righted this ship.
Wilhelmsen might just wind up being a victim of circumstance - but then he wasn't supposed to be here at all, so I don't think he's complaining.  I wanted him in the rotation all year in AA to find a breaking ball and get a rhythm, but the Ms had other plans.
It doesn't mean he's locked in the pen forever - he finds a splitter and the world is his oyster.
But in the meantime, there are worse places for him to be.  And on the bright side, if anyone was ever built for the multi-inning close, it should be Tom.
~G

It is my fondest hope that what I am seeing with Carp in CF is indeed us prepping for a run at Fielder.  It doesn't mean that we'd GET him, but I'd like to see the sincere attempt.  I like Fielder better than...well everyone as an available hitter, and he's certainly better than Carp.
And I think Carp is better than Wells, and Wells/Trayvon is better than Guti.
So that gives us improvement at 3 positions just by signing Fielder.
The question is whether you can ease Fielder into DHing.  He would play a lot of 1B, I would imagine, and I don't know how much DHing Smoak has ever done either.  B-R says he DHed for one game in the minors.  One.
So there are risks inherent in assuming that Fielder will DH when he never really has before (4ish times a year is not a track record).  Fielder is also a league leader in games played every season.  Fat, "unathletic" Prince misses about as many games as Ichiro.
If playing 1B full-time is a demand of his...then you work it out.  Smoak can DH.  There is no way I trade Smoak because Fielder wants to stand at 1B for most of the season.
Now maybe we're aiming at another DH-type and want to make sure Carp can indeed play the OF before we even stick a toe in that water.  He can, so we're covered.
But I'll say again:  compared to what we started the year with, how improved would that be?
Game 1, 2011 vs potential Game 1, 2012:
Position and Season OPS+
RF - Ichiro (86) vs same
3B - Figgins (39!!) vs Seager (92)
LF - Bradley (90) vs Carp (124)
DH - Cust (93) vs Fielder (155)
1B - Smoak (102) vs same
C - Olivo (79) vs same
CF - Langerhans (89) vs Robinson/Wells (101/103)
SS - Ryan (81) vs same
2B - Jack Wilson (65) vs Ackley (124)
The CF calculation doesn't even include Guti, who has been absymal at the plate in a way that few other than Figgins can appreciate.
There aren't enough ABs on there to make projections for next year with any accuracy, but just LOOKING at it, it sure does seem like we'd have a far stronger lineup coming out of Spring Training next year than we did this year.
4 drastic and clear improvements, one improvement with 2 chances to get it to work, low-performing holdovers at glove positions (which is acceptable) and at least one player with major upside from this year's totals (thank you, Justin).  Two of the unimproved positions (RF, SS) have players in the minors who will make top-100 prospect lists and will be in AAA, so it's not like our internal improvement options are expiring either.
This year, the team as a whole (.233/.293/.347/.640) basically hit like Brendan Ryan (.244/.310/.322/.632).  BRENDAN RYAN.
That won't happen next year with that Fielder-centric lineup.
I don't know if we will try for Prince, but it's setting up well for us to do so.  The tough move to swallow for the FO would be moving Guti...but you don't pay 5.5 million dollars (and 7 million the year after) for a 5th OF no matter how pretty his defense is.  When he arrived, I said watching Guti was like watching a Charles Gipson who could hit.  Now he hits like Gipson too.
Can't have that - not when we have multiple other options.
And we need to be able to put an average offense out there next year.  This year we'll probably be 150, 170 runs south of the AL average (we're 146 shy right now with 16 games to go).
Full seasons of Ackley, Carp, and healthy Smoak get you some of the way to that, but I don't try to add that much offense by relying solely on 2nd year players.
Looking forward to seeing the plan.  Talent has been assembled...now what are we gonna do with it?
~G

than by signing Prince Fielder. 
If the money isn't already available for him from the salaries that come off the books, or they don't raise the payroll, Z has to find ways to make his salary fit.
Trading Gutierrez frees up $12 million over the next two years. Giving an extra rotation spot to one of the young guys or picking up a reclamation project and non-tendering Vargas could free up another $4 million. 
There are plenty of ways to make the move fit in the budget. There really is no excuse for not making an effort to sign Fielder at this point.
I think Carlos Beltran is the next guy Z could possibly target if he doesn't go all in for Fielder. Switch hitter that can play a little outfield. I don't think it's a move that puts the team over the top like Fielder would, but it wouldn't be the end of the world. Certainly a shorter contract for less money which seems to have become the Mariners motto anyways.

Smoak is vital to this offense because he's a switch hitter with power from both sides.
We DO need LH power, but we can't rely solely on it, unless those lefties can all hit LHP (memo: Fielder has a .800 career OPS against LHP and .980 vs. RHP, with a huge crash in batting eye to boot).  Last thing we need in the late innings is a team going to a southpaw and striking us out meekly 1-2-3.  Somebody who can break up the left-handedness is required.
Switch-hitters with 35+ HRs, last 50 years:
Mantle, Teixeira, Berkman, Beltran, Chipper, HoJo, Caminiti, Hundley.  That's it... and at least one of the last two wasn't legit.
If you think Smoak is able to do that at some point, then he's a commodity that really can't be found anywhere else.  Maybe he isn't able to.  Maybe he'll only do 25 HRs a year, but with his ability to hit LH and benefit from the park, while also being able to switch sides and hit from the right when situational relievers show up means if he's ANY kind of a hitter he's very valuable to the offense the Mariners are building.
I think he's some kind of hitter. ;)
I would do what I could to make a Smoak/Fielder thing work for the Mariners. Prince at 1B 70% of the time, Smoak at DH 70% of the time would be fine.  Giving Prince days off from the field might help the big lug going forward, and if he starts to get injured in a few years and needs more DH time, we have a 1B already on the roster.
B-R's page on Smoak indicates he's a FA after the 2015 season, btw, but I don't believe that's true.  The Rangers did us a favor with his callup date - he missed post-2015 FA by a week. 
Pay the money, keep the man.  He's under club control through 2016, and if there's no need to give him up, don't.
~G

Just saying that while Wilhelmsen's heater has the looks and velocity of a being special pitch, that doesn't automatically make him a special starter.  This is a lost year for his starting potential, so if they were gonna send him down to work on the curve and getting his release point fine-tuned and repeatable, we're looking at another delay til at least 2013 for him to get in the rotation, maybe longer. 
Keep in mind, Maurer and Walker are likely going to wind up at AA early in the year, along with Gillheeney (whom I still believe in as an arm) and Hultzen (briefly).  Paxton, Erasmo, and Carraway will be at AAA at least, and I expect Paxton to push to make the club out of ST.  They look serious about Furbush as a starter, and I dunno what they think of Beavan and Vasquez but they're getting a long look at em.
Wilhelmsen has a lot of starters to climb over, including two 24-carat, diamond studded showpieces.  If he can perfect his curve while staying in the pen, though, then he can always pull a Furbush and step out of the bullpen and into the rotation if someone goes down with injury.
Or he can turn into a stoner version of Papelbon - an outcome I would not be sorry to see. 
Since 8/15: 13 IP, 15 K/ 3 BB (2 in one game), 3 runs.
Would I let a 2 ERA, 10K/2BB pitcher work in the pen for me while he figures out pitch #2?  I understand why Jack is, I'll certainly say that.
~G

Especially as HRs are receding back to the normal water-line instead of the 90s floodwaters.
2011 (so far): 14 players with 30 or more, 3 with 35 or more.
2010: 18 players with 30 or more, 6 with 35 or more. 
2009: 30 players with 30, 13 with 35
2008: 28 players with 30, 11 with 35
...
2000: 47 with 30, 27 with 35
1999: 45 with 30, 24 with 35
If anyone's remembering a decade or so ago and thinking that's representative of our power expectations going forward...it isn't.
Many teams won't have a guy with 30 HRs, and only a handful will have a 35 HR man on the squad.
Justin's job is not to hit 35 HRs.  His job is to log XBHs, get on base and drive in runs. He still looks like a 30 HR / 30 2B bat in his prime to me (of which there were 32 in 2000 but just 14 last year), but if he was 25 / 25?  There were only 35 of THOSE last season.
25/25 is the new (old?) 30/30.  Adjust expectations. :)  Eddie Murray's power lines would look stellar on Smoak.
And this is why I'm on the Fielder bandwagon, btw.  If power is getting scarcer then guys who have it are worth more - as I'm sure the Boras Power Presentation of Doom will indicate.
~G

Problem being, of course, that signing Fielder isn't like going to the supermarket and picking up a gallon of milk. You have to convince him to come here. Other than money, what is your sales pitch?

if things don't fall into place in St Louis.  2 year deal as a DH/1B and occasional outfielder.  Fielder scares me too much when it comes to years 4,5,6 or how long the contract goes. 
Berkman provides flexibility with the roster and a shorter term solution to production now.  He's having a year that I would not expect him to have next year but he would still be an incredibly valuable addition.

this fanbase (or me) can handle yet another aging, used to be on the back BACK end of his career FA to come here to die.  Pay the preimium for a young super stud (Fielder or Upton if the dbacks still are willing to trade) or just play the kids!  
Walker, Campos, Trayvon, Wells, and Guti (we pay 2/3rds of the rest of his contract) for Upton?  Or would the dbacks laugh and hang up?

Is that it can be a synonym for "never fixing a hole in the team and hoping that a downside hitter can produce."
See: 
Everett, Carl
Bradley, Milton
Branyan, Russell
Cust, Jack
et al.
They all provided short-term contract flexibility.  It's not the kind of flexibility that helps us.
If you want to be more comfortable with Fielder, think of his contract as 4 years of a top-10 hitter followed by a potential 2 years of Milton Bradley/Russ Branyan/Jack Cust type production.
Except that Fielder and his .400+ OBPs will still provide value as long as he's not catastrophically injured.
Fielder is as good a bet for the next 4 years as any hitter in baseball, IMO.  I think he's getting in the 7/140 range for a contract, so it's just a matter of whether you want to pay that for a top-10 hitter.
It'll mean we won't be able to keep Smoak in 5 years...but I can live with that.  That's what a farm system is for, to find me more Smoaks - and in the meantime we have a lineup that isn't straight out of the deadball era.
~G

when that person is probably 80lbs over weight.  I probably would of been on your side a year ago but seeing what Adam Dunn has done coming over to the American League has me scared. 
If I'm spending big money on a free agent this year (as if they will  be interested in coming) I'd be more inclined to go after Reyes.  He'd be a huge upgrade over Ryan (who I have nothing against).
As far as farm systems to replace Smoak in 5 years I'm afraid you'd have to replace both Smoak and Fielder and that is not an easy thing to do.
Berkman is having as good a year as Fielder.  I'm surprised by that but the numbers do a pretty good job of supporting this statement.  And as far as the names listed above who you are comparing to Berkman I don't think anyone of those guys were ever in his league.  Berkman is having his best season by OPS + he's ever had.  Not a bad option in my mind. 
If the M's go out and sign Fielder I'll be as excited as anyone (it's not my money) but it's a big risk.  He'll be a blast to watch and if the M's increase their budget this year and beyond then I would reconsider but there's not much evidence of that happeing.

I look at it this way:
What if I came to you in 2016 and said, “Smoak is willing to sign a 7 year/140 million extension with us.  He’s had five straight years over 130 OPS+ and three of those over 150 (!!).  He’s top 10 in the league in slugging OBP, OPS, offensive WAR, total bases, HRs, RBIs, RC, etc etc etc.  We have no one in the minors who is anywhere near ready to provide that kind of production.  Why would we not do this?”
What would the hold-up be?  Money, years, and his age, right?
Smoak will be a FA after the 2016 season, when he turns 30 that December.
Fielder will start next season as a 27 year old.  So congratulations, he’s a FAR better bet than Smoak after Justin’s club-controlled time is up, especially as Justin has a whispered prayer of being anywhere near as offensively powerful as Fielder has been (and will be for the next several years).
Fielder ages 28-34 is a better bet than we are likely to have a chance at in the next several years in FA.  We might not like the no-limit, big-blind aspect to MAKING that bet, but it’s the big-boy table.
“What if Fielder gets injured/sucks the last few years?” is no different than “What if Felix gets injured.”  Same amount of money lost, and pitchers are more likely to die a horrible quick death and leave you with a big bill than great hitters are.  And the flip side of that question is, "What if he DOESN'T and is a monster the whole way through?"  If he's Carlos Delgado or Chipper Jones or Jim Thome then his early-30s years are gonna still astound and amaze.
O-WAR through age 27:  Fielder 23.2, Delgado 18.0, Thome 27.2, Jones 27.9
By comparison, Teixeira of the 180 million dollar deal has 15.6 through 27 and 34.4 through 31.  Another bet that I would make is that Fielder gets more offensive WAR (B-R stat) through 31 than Teix has.
If you were willing to go 5 years on Felix, knowing that several of those years were gonna get mega-expensive, then Fielder is a no-brainer.  He’s NOT gonna give you a 3 WAR drop off the year he signs his $100 million contract like Zito did to the Giants.  He’s gonna be one of the best power hitters in the league for years to come, and I can't justify passing on the pursuit just because we're unwilling to belly up to the table and look the professionals there in the eyes (or the sunglasses, as it were).
Bring your chips, Mariners, check your cards and start raising the pot.  Nobody ever won anything by getting blinded out.
 ~G

And his good-but-not-great performance against lefties isn't ideal - but not everyone can be Edgar, who hit great at home and on the road (as does Prince) but also versus either-handed pitcher type.
And Edgar had his own limitations in the field.  Fielder can play first without pulling a hamstring, overweight or not.  In fact, he plays a ton of games.  Maybe that's bad and it's wearing out his knees quicker...but Fielder is an every-day contributor, rain or shine.
Reyes is a risk too, as is Berkman.  I'm okay with the Mariners finding a risk they prefer to Fielder, but I'm not okay with them just battening down the hatches and waiting another year for the kids to mature and take our offense out of the deadball era.
Because if too many of them DON'T mature into plus ball-players, we'll still be stuck in the dead zone.
We're in transition.  We should have 25ish million to spend this offseason, more if Vargas, Guti or League is gone.
We'll have Ichiro's 18 million off the books next year too, in theory.  Figgins and Guti come off the year after that.  There's money for the kids and for Fielder too, especially since payroll flexes with attendance.
I just view Fielder as a 27 year old farm-produced monster (since it was Jack's farm at the time), and "re-signing" him is about like re-signing Ackley will likely be later in the decade:
A completely viable option for dominance.
~G

Some men are just built to be big.  Take David Ortiz for example he is a big dude, and after having a down year two years ago at 33 (all the way down to a 101 OPS+, like our crop DH's have never been that bad in recent years ;) ), has roared back for 137 and 162 OPS+ years at 34 and 35.  And IMHO Prince is more innately talented that Big Papi.  
I am a big guy (I am ashamed to admit I am at least 70 lbs overweight), and like Prince I have ALWAYS been big.  Born at almost 11 pounds and never stopped growing.  Of course my wish and desire and effort is to try to lose weight, but it isn't as easy for some of us.  My point though is that I was born big and I have always been big and my body grew up and learned big.  I am able to do things as a big guy that all my skinny friends can do (lets play racquetball sometime, I will run you off the court :)), because my body knows no physical difference.  I would be willing to bet that if examined all of my joints and tendons and ligaments and thicker because they grew supporting more than a skinny guys did.  As far as physically breaking down I just turned 30, and I run several half marathons a year, play racquetball rigorously, coach soccer (well AYSO at least :) ), work out at least 4 times a week, and am still going strong.  I have had my fair share of injuries, aches and pains, but nothing that I wouldn't call within the realm of normal for any person as active as I am.  Certainly not as many as some one fragile like Rendon (ouch I know I know low blow, sorry about that).  And I am a nobody.  Not a big time athlete that has shown NO signs of wear like Prince.
It would definitely behoove Prince to lose weight not just for his joint health, but also heart health and generally feeling good about ones self.  And if contracted I hope the M's would encourage him to do that and provide him every opportunity to.  But I don't think it is a good reason to not sign him, or schedule him for an earlier baseball death.
As an aside I think it would be harder on a person who was skinny growing up, then ballooned late, rather than a guy like Prince who was always big, but I could be wrong, it is just an assumption, anyone have any facts on the matter?