Brandon Morrow. This blog should not mention his name on a Monday.
He of the lifetime ERA of 4.47 is not fixed.
Morrow still walked four men per game when he had his breakout year in Toronto.
Morrow has a 5.12 ERA this year.
Morrow is the guy Bill Bavasi took over Tim Lincecum. This transaction would be a curse if it occurred in Boston or Chicago.
Morrow publicly whined about having his roles flip flopped and seemed to have a generally pouty demeanor when he played for the Ms.
Morrow beat up on the Mariners earlier this year in one of those Morrowesque one time games of unsurpassed brilliance. He presumably did this for the Mariner's crimes of rushing him to the major leagues, and relying on him to play well, and drafting him over Tim Lincecum, and then trading him for a better player.
Is leading his team (the one with Jose Bautista) into the American league cellar with his 9-10 record.
Contrast Brandon League:
Cooler tattoos,
Better control, League can paint the corners when he wants, and can throw his sinkerball for a strike.
Good stuff too, He hits 98 on the radar gun, has a good sinker ball, and has that fork thing as his offspeed pitch.
Has thrived in Seattle, with 3.42 and 2.82 ERAs while pitching high leverage innings for the lowest run scoring and most dissapointing offenses in history.
Does not whine, Last year, he never whined, that we know of, during all those 1-1 and 0-0 tie games where he pitched his heart out for at least two innings, and the Mariners lost anyway.
Did not whine, when he was behind the DA even though he had better stats.
Did not whine, when he was moved to closer, and had added pressure.
Is an all star.
Will be traded next July for Jesus Montero, Mike Trout or someone similarly awesome, OR
Will sign with the Mariners as the closer of the future for a hometown discount, OR
Both.
Sometimes we need to count our blessings. League is one of them.
Has it occurred, the similarities between Tom Wilhelmsen right now, and Brandon Morrow ... just before the Seattle Mariners traded him? All of these Morrow factoids are true of Wilhelmsen:
- Morrow threw an easy 95-98
- But with inconsistent location of his FB
- The fastball was impressive enough in flight, but even MORE impressive as hitters swung
- Morrow's breaking stuff was intriguing but totally unreliable
- Morrow just finished a 63:44 CTL season in SEA, with 8.5 strikeouts; Wilhelmsen's at 25:13, with 8.2 strikeouts
- velocities the same in the pen or in the rotation
- Both had extreme starter's mechanics and starter's rhythms
- Morrow was a tall, long-armed, non-Ian-Snell RHP
- Morrow with 250 IP in college and minors; Wilhelmsen 240 IP in minors (though by 2010, Morrow had three seasons as a RP)
- Both pitchers ricochet'ed back-and-forth between the 'pen and rotation, with furious internal and external debates attached
There is one gigantic DISsimilarity. The Mariners shed Morrow because they thought he was a princess.
Nobody is ever going to mistake Tom Wilhelmsen for anything but a candidate for house arrest. It's disturbing just watching the man give a TV interview. Randy Johnson on "The Joker" laughing poison is more the persona...
.......
The M's will most certainly not bow out on Tom Wilhelmsen because of makeup questions. That much is good.
As with Leuke, Pineda, Trayvon etc., Zduriencik-the-scout appears to almost favor extra testosterone, even if it comes with off-field questions attached. That's a tough concept for genteel, PC northwesterners. But pro sports is a cutthroat game...
....
Otherwise: Brandon Morrow was an inkblot test for M's fans for three years. Here's a guy with perhaps the best fastball in the game, and little else: what are you going to do with him?
The Blue Jays never groused about Morrow's makeup: they made it their job to coach him technically. And they got about the serious business of fixing him.
It took Morrow five (5) starts with the Jays, and beginning with start 6, he was an 11-strikeout pitcher with a 3.18 FIP. Wilhelmsen is also not far away from Pitch Number Two.
The rapidity of Morrow's ascent to American League TOR, jelling and achieving his potential the first month he was out of Seattle, should haunt Mariners fans and haunt the Mariners.
So you have a mulligan, and here's Brandon Morrow again. In the form of Tom Wilhelmsen. What now?
....
Rafael Soriano is an adroit counterpoint here - ::cpoints:: for that. However, I'd gingerly argue that Soriano had a sidearm, max-effort throwing motion, and little capacity for getting into the loping, 7-inning pitch sequencing that is the starter's domain.
Of course, everything is relative. You could come up with Wilhelmsens who did well in the pen, and Sorianos who pitched well in the rotation.
....
Rockies Jeff, a baseball coach, sez
Soft stuff will be the last to show itsself after his walkabout.
Makes sense.
.....
Thing is, Wilhemsen's hook is a strikeout pitch, but once every four pitches he well-and-truly hangs it.
Generally, announcers seem to announce that a pitcher "hung" the curve when (1) the pitcher throws the curve and (2) a batter hits it.
But Wilhemsen really does, visibly, hang his curve on a string when it's up and inner half. When he gets on top of it, throws on a more downhill plane, the batters tip their caps and walk away. Happens all the time.
SSI has nothing, zero, against giving Tom Wilhelmsen a year in Tacoma to work on the yellow hammer. But he has everything against trading Tom Wilhelmsen to the Cleveland Indians and watching Wilhelmsen fan 180 batters in 150 innings next year.
Don't know if the Dr. D character could run a major league team, but I WOULD SURE AS SHOOTIN' KNOW BETTER THAN TO PUT BRANDON MORROW OR TOM WILHELMSEN INTO THE BULLPEN.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I was begging for it before this year even while acknowledging that the Ms might bullpen him just out of convenience and the need for an arm there. But it looks like his AA wobble convinced them to stick him in the pen for immediate use rather than burn the last option or two (he had to immediately be placed on the 40 man because of when he was originally drafted, IIRC, and now he's not coming off it for sure) trying to make him a starter.
You're supposed to bullpen your flamethrowers who aren't working out, but most of ours ARE working out, and we'd rather have Wilhelmsen throwing 70 innings for us than 180 for someone else because he gets squeezed out by Paxton, Hultzen and others. I understand that logic. I don't necessarily AGREE with it, but Jack is not on a whenever-he-gets-here-is-fine timetable.
I think it's .500 or bust next year. If that means that we burn a FA year for Paxton the way we did for Pineda, then I think we do it. If that means Wilhelmsen is better serving the cause in the bullpen, then he's in the bullpen.
IMO, Jack is making a call that Wilhelmsen will not be one of his 5 best starters next year, but is one of his 11 best arms, and he needs the arm. Whether that's penny-wise and pound-foolish, or just the cold hard facts of the situation...I think that's the way it's playing out.
If Morrow had been a Papelbon/Soriano in the pen, btw, he'd have stayed on the team - he would have been more valuable to us than League. As far as I can tell, he got traded because we didn't trust him to stay healthy, didn't like his attitude, and thought he wasn't mentally tough enough to close or to get the tough outs as a starter.
And I still believe it was part of the Cliff Lee deal, denials aside.
But if Wilhelmsen can get tough outs, then he can be a part of any Zduriencik team.
Brandon Morrow, btw, has an ERA near 5 as a starter for his career even while leading the league in K/9 - amazing fastball or not, he just gets scored on. I like and use FIP and xFIP a lot, but I do wonder why some guys with great stuff always give up too many runs.
Felix did early, and doesn't now. Morrow is worse this year than last. Maybe he'll get better, but right now he racks up big stats while making sure his team loses too many games.
I dunno that that's not part of his princess nature. If he outgrows it, it seems to me it won't be until free agency, and a "contract year" performance from him is one I'd be very leery of.
Maybe Wilhelmsen is a second chance at Morrow, but if he is, it looks like he's being aimed at a second chance at Closer Morrow and not Starter Morrow.
That wouldn't be my Plan A - but I'd still take it. Wilhelmsen, Lueke and Moran could wind up being a new-fangled Sasaki, Nelson and Rhodes if things break right.
There are worse things.
~G
Where do you put Ruffin and Shawn, then? It seems to me that both are more than 7th inning guys. Or maybe they just haven't proved it yet?
And we'd probably have middle ground if the Mariners brought TW to camp in 2012 to compete for the #5 rotation slot.
If that worked out to a Ramiro Mendoza-style "swing man" role for TW ... some long-man outings at 3-4 IP at a time, some spot starts, I'd be cool with that too.
TW himself brings a starter impetus long term, but the Mariners' pitching staff is run like roaches. The problems are nice ta have, ain't they?
Brandon Morrow. This blog should not mention his name on a Monday.
:- )
Oh, I'm not sayin' that Morrow ISN'T soft my friend... you might have caught my pre-draft advisory on him, warning to steer clear for that very reason...
Am sure you'd agree however - it's awfully embarrassing to have another org immediately deploy him to such great effect -
...
Brandon League, without a doubt, has that "closer's" mentality of being able to shake off the mishaps and come right back at you with a first-pitch fastball.
No doubt either that this factored in to what Zduriencik's doing. He gave up net talent, in order to gain net makeup.
I'll take the good with the bad, for sure.
And if TW *is* going to relieve next year, I certainly hope it isn't in the short-man role, as such.
Would much rather see him get some multi-inning stretches, if the M's starters are ever going to provide any such opps.
A good Steve Karsay / Ramiro Mendoza swing man, 3-4 IP stints and spot starts, that can help you win a pennant. Sometimes you poach several wins, having a TW come in and lock down the other team after you're down 6-3 in the third.
I like League fine... I just think we should have gotten more for Morrow who was still highly valuable with lots of club controlled years/cheap upside. We really could have used a bat with that chip.
Good way to look at it. This is like getting a mulligan in the middle of the round. Hit a couple short into the water and you get another freebie. All things being equal? Morrow had the arm but not an arm to warrant "that" pick. Regretfully I rarely get to see M's live but I loved your descriptions of TW's curve. That is the sheer beauty of pitching!
Jeff, do you know if TW is scheduled for winter ball or rest the arm after a long season?
Am sure you'd agree however - it's awfully embarrassing to have another org immediately deploy him to such great effect -
I think what mojician is saying, and I agree is that NO, it is NOT embarassing, because he HASN'T be deployed to great effect. He HASN'T been changed. Morrow is still the same guy in Toronto that he was here. He is handsome, He looks great in a uniform, he falshes the triple digit heat, he picthes with confidence and pace, He gets lots of strikeouts, and you think he is doing great and then you look at the scoreboard and realise, "wait what, when did he give up 4 runs???". Dont let his best game of the year (the one he threw against us) fool you, Morrow has not been a good starter for the Blue Jays! THAT is what Mojician was saying!
Morrow for the Blue Jays has run a 4.4 and 5.1 ERA the last two years, ERA+'s of 93 and 83 (below average), and played pretty much .500 ball (19-17), which for an offense like theirs is pretty alarming. One could say that I am using atiquated stats, and it is true that his FIPs and xFIPS make the statistical picture a little more rosy, but I have also noticed a trend with Morrow that he always underachieves. For all the talent, and all the strikeouts and all the offense he has behind him, he should be better! And his FIPs and xFIP bear this out, his real ERA is always higher than his theoretical ones, and when a pitcher has a trend of underperforming his fips I think that has to be unsettling. BTW I was trying to look up team DER to see if the blue jays have a terrible defense and I couldn't find it, can someone provide a link?
Anyway, bottom line is no I am NOT embaressed with anything Morrow has done or will do, or anything the Blue Jays did to "fix" him. And I am extremely glad to have League (a very valuable comodity either as our closer or as a trade pice). Not to mention Chavez who had a down year in AA, but who has the power potential and youth to find success.
I know a lot of you fret over Wilhelmson's future because Morrow choked here when asked to flip-flop betweens tarting and reliever...but Wilhelmson isn't Morrow. Read: he's not a wussy little cry-baby. I think the 2012 pitching staff has quite enough options without needing Wilhelmson to be competing for a fifth starter spot...whereas the bullpen is a mess. I would use Wilhelmson as a swiss army knife...I don't think that will negatively impact his future at all. I think you get 90-100 innings out of him making a few spot starts and pitching in middle/long relief a la Brett Tomko or John Halama and he becomes the new (and improved) David Pauley. That makes our pen:
CL) Brandon League
SUR) Shawn Kelley
SUL) Charlie Furbush (if I had my way)
MR) Tom Wilhelmson
MR) Chance Ruffin
MR/LR) Pick a couple of minor leaguers
And the rotation:
1) Felix Hernandez
2) Michael Pineda
3) James Paxton
4) Danny Hultzen
5) Blake Beavan
If Beavan fails, Wilhelmson can take over...but I don't see the problem.
it is pretty risky to count on both Hultzen and Paxton starting for the Mariners next year let alone both out of spring training, and even if they do both make it out of spring training they would have similar innings limitations as Pineda does this year.
I think that Furbush has just about sewn up the #4 spot, he still has a lot of upside as a starter and just like one wouldnt want to misuse Wilhelmson as a reliever if he is a good starter, the same applies to Furbish. So I would have Felix, Pineda, Vargas and Furbush and then who ever wins the Beaven, Hultzen, Wilhelmson, Paxton battle. the loser go to the pen or stay in the rotation for the Rainers and then when we trade Vargas and or one of the origional 5 fails (I am looking at YOU Beaven), you get a nice upgrade in the roptation mid season.
Or maybe all the kids blow ST away and we end up with a Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Paxton, Wilhelmson rotation and Vargas is sent home crying in his milk ;)
Neither of them is the type that has a game that needs much refinement...you might have to limit their innings, but even if you do, that just means you don't trade Vargas yet...you keep him a little while longer and then you call up Hultzen when he gets traded in June and hopefully, Hultzen won't need much work in AAA so his innings count will stay low. Meanwhile, you've got Wilhelmson in the pen who can spot start late in the year for Paxton...and the same goes for Furbush.
I'm not convinced he ever makes it to ST.
If he does it means they offered him arbitration instead of non-tendering him.
I'm not convinced he's worth $4.5 to $5 million when we have so many able bodies to fill his role next season, or another one of Z's reclamation projects off the scrap heap of FA's for $1 million or so.
That's just my opinion, but I think what's more likely if the M's do offer him arbitration is that he's traded soon after ala Jose Lopez.
Good stuff OBF, Ghost.
OBF I wonder whether Paxton is as much of a question mark as you fear ...
If SSI's presumption be on track, the 2012 M's start with Felix-Pineda-Paxton 1-2-3, and Paxton is likely headed for Clayton Kershaw-type immediate effectiveness ...
That leaves Hultzen, Vargas*, Wilhelmsen, Beavan (arrghh), Erasmo Ramirez (per Jack's interview), Erik Bedard :- ) and co. in a 5-to-make-2...
Good points Ghost. A multiple layer of pitchers is a key to 2012 and beyond. In earlier comments I was tempted to mention Morrow's weak mental game in comparison but realizing I am seeing everything at a great distance, I didn't want to speak on 2nd, 3rd hand info. Didn't Morrow ask to relief so he could be in Seattle and then say he changed his mind? I always thought he was not too young in age but in baseball smarts and mental discipline. It would have seemed from here that Lincecum was light years ahead in that department. Thanks for bringing that up. Each individual has to be weighed beyond fastball, etc to what is best for them and the team. Baseball is a so mental. It sounds like TW has some intangible smarts to do what is needed.
I'm glad I'm not the only one considering this...he's always been one of my all time favorite pitchers. Would not mind at all if he ends up back in Seattle (a la Cliff Lee in Philly)
I would LOVE to be proven wrong, but I guess I saw Pineda as the 1 in 10 draw at the joker in the deck in terms of coming out of the minors super fast to *star* RIGHT AWAY in the bigs as a pitcher. Maybe I have just seen too many Tillmans, Morrows, Meches, Snells, the list is endless really, of guys who have dynamite stuff in the minors but either struggle for a while (with flashes) before blossoming (even Felix could be claimed to have done this) like Meche or Morrow, or just disappoint over all and fizzle away. To expect Paxton AND hultzen to pull a Pineda is a stretch I think, really to expect either one to do it may be a stretch. It could also be that I just haven't full grasped the magnitude of their talent yet. I certainly hadn't with Pindea so there is definitely room for that :)