I hope this makes sense, I'm on a couple hours sleep.
This article brings to mind the concept of utility that I learned in my youthful days studying Economics. Some Economists argue that there are sources of value that cannot be measured. In baseball I think that is faith or belief in your abilities. That team swagger that says our collective cajones are bigger than yours. I suggest the threat of a homerun carries great weight and the actual homerun itself brings with it a high degree of utils. 2 runs off 5 singles brings less value than a 2 run homerun. The former is almost a disappointment while the latter is a ultimate baseball statement of manhood. Jack Z clearly appreciates risk vs. reward and the need to carry some risk in your lineup when the payoff can be greater than the simply the runs produced. So much of the game is in the players head. The talent levels are just too close to attritube success simply to those things we can measure. Long live Jack Z.
=== Ribbie Men ===
Other comps for Wells, if he were to jell as a .260, 30-homer type: the 1980's Jays' star Jesse Barfield, the 1990's Rangers third baseman Dean Palmer and, at the extreme, check out Jim Rice's EYE in his first two years.
BB's increase as respect increases. Wells' BB will increase as the HR's pile up.
There is a very great difference between a sabermetric rule of thumb and an inviolable law of physics. "Most .300 hitters have EYE's above 0.70" simply does not carry the same authority as "Matter and energy can be neither created nor destroyed."
If you find yourself feeling uncomfortably bigoted against all hitters who run 0.25 EYEs, study the long-term career arc of Giants' hero Matt Williams. Or Joe Carter. Or a hundred other RBI men.
The avant-garde fan has (1) pooh-pooh'ed RBI and (2) swooned over EYE/UZR, and the results have not been all that pretty ... right now, we're all a bit tired of Chone Figgins' BB's and UZR. Dr. D is here to prescribe 30 homers and you are welcome to call him in the morning.
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=== Stock Grade: UP ===
The big takeaway, from Wells' month .333/.410/.667 month in Safeco, is that Casper Wells' power plays in Safeco. Get that straight!
So did Sexson's. Richie's first two years here, he slugged 39 and 34 homers, driving in 121 and 107 runs.
Had you told us, the day of the Fister trade, that Wells' homers would easily overmatch Safeco Field, the trade woulda looked a little different.
Day of trade, SSI guesstimated 50-50 for Wells to become a fulltime AL regular. Now it's got to be 70%. And the chance at posting a few Sexson, Barfield, Palmer seasons has got to be 25% or more.
***
Wells' stats look fab right now, partly because he is currently on an HR tear -- what is it, 5 HR's in 7 games or something. But then again, does Wells have to slug every tick of .527 in order to help the ballclub?
He just has to be a legit HR man. Right now, anyway, James Shields is convinced that he is.
***
Wells is not an established AL star. But he's got a whale of a great shot to become one, at least a minor star. And if he's Richie Sexson in CF, or LF-GG, then he's going to bank some serious jack.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
That the *presence* of even one 100-RBI man "legitimizes" a lineup.
We're left with a pretty simple choice of waving them off, or else asking whether they might have a light bulb on that we don't.
Personally, I would hope that every Mariner fan from 2010-11 would understand the dangers of allowing an offense to fall below critical mass ... and watching all the players "inexplicably" have terrrrrrrible years *together* ...
I think it comes down whether or not Wells can continue to hit for his kind of IsoP and where his BABIP levels off.
Wells has improved at the MLB level, but his BABIP ability is yet to be decided. He wasn't a high BABIP guy in the minors and currently is running a BABIP over .350 in the majors.
His low LD, high pop-up approach tends to lead to low BABIPs. Typically guys of this skillset run a BABIP below .300.
If his his true-talent is around a .300 BABIP it should be enough for a low/mid 700s bat. If his true-talent BABIP is below that, he probably won't hit enough to be a regular.
Wells could also improve by raising his BB rate as he gets more comfortable (higher BBrate in the minors).
And would add that the BB's rise as the pitchers begin to buy in to the HR's. Same is true of Carp: they're "mysteriously" not giving him any walks.
Like Luke told Yoda, "I'm not afraid!" .... youuuu willl beee.
***
Prediction here is that Wells' ISO is going to be real good, [provided that] he doesn't develop Jeff Clement-style contact issues.
I doubt he will. He's very quiet to the ball.
Love what Casper is doing so far, but gotta say I'm skeptical in the extreme that he'll be anything more than 100 OPS+ producer long term.
His minor league profile fairly screams that he's really a .250 hitter with a modest walk rate, insignificant speed and solid pop. Basically, he's a "polished" version of Peguero.
I know well enough that anyone on pace for 55 HRs and 0 doubles is running a line utterly impossible to maintain.
Mind you, there's nothing generically wrong with a 100 OPS+ OF (especially when your club has been running 70s and 80s out there for some time). But, I'm much higher on Trayvon becoming a 120 OPS+ guy (a couple of years down the line, perhaps) than betting the MLB BA is indicative of true improvement.
I'm no Kinesiologist -- not my expertise. But, I do know that full profiles of players include both good and bad spells. Take it from the guy who warned Kennedy was an 84 OPS+ guy when he was at 110 and Jamey Wright could not maintain his miraculous form from April ... I don't see statistical evidence of actual growth as a hitter. Enjoy the streak - because the slump is likely going to be very, very ugly.
I agree a bit with Casper.
Casper is more likely to tail off in power a bit and his true-talent BABIP is probably under .300 making him more of a platoon/4th OF type.
I'm higher on Trayvon than I was before because early on he has shown flashes of elite CF defense. But I'm not very high on his bat at all despite the strong start OPS-wise. He sitting dead red and getting feeded a high% fastballs so far.
That said, Trayvon's CF defense could be good enough that you only need an 80-90 OPS+ from him to get averagish production from the position. In that sense, I'm higher on him than before although he too still seems more likely to fit as a part-timer.