Here I wrote earlier today about the surplus of OF's and then look what Z does. 
Robinson=Real Deal.  Even if you discount some of his power numbers this year due to the Albuquerque effect (26 homers with only 9 doubles are the numbers of a plodding masher. 6 triples---and 22 in the last three years---shows that isn't the case, at all.  So lets say that some of those taters are elevation type jobs), Robinson can flat out play.  He hits .300 and he walks a ton, 104 at AA in '10, .083 in AAA this year.
He is clearly a CF so Z has shown his hand. Wells is a corner guy, Carp is a LF/DH and Guti will soon find the door.  If you assume, and it's clearly a easy assumption, that the M's field a Wells, Robinson, Ichiro OF next year and Carp has DH/LF role, then who is the other OF?   Bets?
There is no use sending Chiang to AA. He has clearly mastered that level.  He should move straight to Tacoma.  Saunders, Peguero , Pena make for (Wilson, sadly for me, will soon be gone) interesting stuff.  And then there's Halman.
We be loaded in the OF right now.
I will be VERY interested in seeing where Robinson goes. Do you send him to Tacoma just so he continues mashing the PCL?  Why?
But to bring him up, then you have to send Halman down....or DL Guti.
Z has shown his CF hand.  Two guys in two days whose best fit is CF.  Guti has lost the luster.
If you set your search parameters at max. 5 HR, .200-.250-.250 (and all of those are considerably better than Guti's numbers right now),  and look over the last 50 years you find exactly 7 OF's who have performed as badly as Guti over at least 200 PA's.  Nobody has been as bad over as many PA's since Bob Dernier did it in 1989.  Guti is simply really bad.  He's been really bad for two full seasons.  Bad stomach notwithstanding, he's showing no sign of being a MLB CFer.
I wouldn't be surprised if he gets sent down to Tacoma to find an offensive game.
Doc, What is the chance that none of these three OF guys pan out and ecome a fulltime valuable OF?  Incredibly low, correct?  Even if you assume that EACH is only a 1 in 3 shot (which is a WAY low assumption) you still get a 70% chance (Quickly doing the math in my head...correctly, I hope) that one is a real player.  If you give each a 50% shot then you're up to nearly a 90% chance.  And if each is a 2 in 3 guy, well then you're up over a 95% chance.
If each is a 2 in 3 guy, then you're nearly at 90% that TWO of them become fulltime whacking OF's.
Add an Ackley.  Add a Smoak.  Add a Carp.
We just got healthy....or will be soon.
Fister for Wells didn't excite me, until I added Beavan (Fister-lite, now in the rotation) to the formula.  But now, I'm very excited.
What do you think?  Is this better than the Lee trade? Smoak and Beavan (+) for Lee or this haul for Bedard.  I like this one at least as much.
Figure out who is playing 3rd (Figgins or Seager or Mangini or Franklin) and I bet you can name next years opening day lineup.
Ichiro
Robinson
Ackley
Smoak
Carp
Wells
Olivo
3B
Ryan
Felix chucking.
And a bunch of very excited SSI guys hanging on every pitch. 
Taking bets?
This is a good day (unless you're named Guti).
moe
 

THAT's the OF bat I wanted.  Well done, Jack.
Played his Bedard hand beautifully.  He is bound and determined to fill his outfield woes by stacking the deck until cards fall off and into the trash/trade pile.
AND Chiang is coming over in time to challenge the for the post-ichiro RF position.  Too sweet.  Dunno how much of this year is a fluke for him, but I remember Shin-Soo Choo and knowing he was on the cusp of doing something great...right when he was traded.
So I'm hoping to get one of those under-rated pieces back, thank you very much.
Fascinating trade deadline.
~G

Comment pasted from MC on Chiang (by Dodger fan):
 
Chiang is the one player going that I don't like seeing in the trade. You can't just dismiss a guy who is putting up a 1.050ish OPS in the Eastern League at 23 years old. That doesn't happen every day. In fact, no one with over 300 PA has come close to doing it in the last decade (23 or younger).
He is still vastly underrated as a prospect because of his struggles prior to this year, which are explained by struggles with controlling diabetes.
I actually agree that he doesn't have much of a future in Boston with the only real place he could theoretically fit at DH after Ortiz. But, another year from now, having proved that his hitting performance this year isn't a fluke, he is going to be much more highly regarded than he is now and would bring back significantly more value to the organization.
I'm not concerned with any of the other pieces in the trade. Fife and Fed-Ex are exactly the types of prospects you use in a trade like this. But, I have a really bad feeling that we sold on Chiang too soon. He is the best bat in the Sox minor league system.

Honestly, I like Chiang a lot more. Some of these high K guys translate, but the vast majority of them don't (also slow development). Although I see Travyon K'ed less in previous seasons and hes intriguing spaghetti as a CF. Don't expect him to pan out, but hes a high-upside dice roll.

http://forum-soxprospects.com/topic/6816/Chih-Hsien-Chiang?page=4
 
Here's a good thread Doc on Chiang.. has the stats, videos, and hometown view of the kid.. I'm interested to hear your take on his numbers and swing.
I'm with Taro, I like this player a lot more than Robinson.

http://forum-soxprospects.com/topic/6816/Chih-Hsien-Chiang?page=4
 
Here's a good thread Doc on Chiang.. has the stats, videos, and hometown view of the kid.. I'm interested to hear your take on his numbers and swing.
I'm with Taro, I like this player a lot more than Robinson.

 
Trayvon was really, REALLY raw when he hit the minors. Inner city kid who wasn't exactly swimming in hitting coaches and traveling squads.
 
IIRC he really didn't play baseball full-time til high school. I don't think he even converted to switch hitting until the minors.
 
Don't look at his first few years in the minors and use them as a gauge.  Figuring out how to switch hit in the minors as a teen when facing players years older than him in age and about a decade more advanced as far as coaching is tough work.
 
Also, nobody figured out he needed contacts til last season.  That and the slowed learning curve held back his progress til the last 3 years.  What happened then?
 
Last 3 years, ages 21-23:
 
2009: .300/.373/.493/.866, 60BB / 143K in 599 PAs, mostly A+
2010: .300/.404/.438/.842, 73BB / 125K in 523 PAs, AA
2011: .293/.375/.563/.938, 45BB / 122K in 368 PAs, AAA
 
I've heard Dexter Fowler comparisons as a switch-hitting, speedy CF without a ton of pop, but they have completely different body styles.  Fowler is a scared beanpole, Trayvon is a compact ball of aggression.
 
To compare him to another Rockies player instead...here are Cargo's years
 at the same levels:
 
Carlos Gonzalez, ages 20-23:
 
A+: .300/.356/.563/.919, 30 BB/ 104K  in 452 PAs (Lancaster, hitter's paradise) 
AA: .277/.326/.468/.794, 39 BB/ 115K in 568 ABs
AAA: .312/.385/.526/.911, 44 BB/ 73K in 460 ABs (partly in Colo. Spgs., hitter's paradise)
 
Trayvon strikes out more.  It's not a death knell.
 
I don't expect him to be a MOTO hitter, but a plus center-fielder?  He can do that.  He's not done growing yet at the plate either.  Mike Cameron struck out 160 times per 162 in the bigs and had a fine career.
 
I'd be ecstatic with that from Trayvon, and it's within his power to provide a Cammy-level offensive line.  We may still need our MOTO bat, but we are trying our hardest to solve the OF problem without spending any cash, and may just have done it.
 
~G

Good point on his background. Still, even if we were going to give him a pass on the slow development you're still talking a career 25% K-rate in the minors and a near 30% at AAA.
Typically the borderline K-rate for translating minor league success to major league success is around 22%. Cameron was at the border at 21.8%. CarGo at 19% K.
That said, some high K guys DO translate but they usually have montrous power along with BBs. Travyon does have the BBs. Ryan Howard, Jack Cust and Russell Branyan are some success cases with 25%+ K rates in the minors. They all had light-tower power.
Casper Wells has a 24.7% minor league K-rate (not high on him as a regular).
Travyon isn't doomed because of his K-rate, but the odds are against him. Chiang is more intriuging IMO. Hes started IsoP'ing .300 in a legitimate park after dealing with his diabetes (below-average K-rate).

Video from the right side. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p0IN7QY0nc&feature=related
From the left side (two years ago)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVNlWecpT2g
Looks like he takes a much bigger cut from the right side than from the left.
Very interesting comments below on Trayvon.  Mixed opinions.  Everyday, top of the order, CF with .270+ bat and lots of walks or a 4th OF limited by too many K's? I like the comment about the improving BB/K ratio. 
If he hits .280 and OPB's .360 he's very valuable.
Add 30-5-12 extra base hits and a CF glove ...Whew!  That's a nice upside.
But if he's a .250-.310 guy who K's once a game then he may well be a 4th OF.
I like his eye, I like his extra base pop, I like that he's a CF, I can live with the K's.
A guy who walks that much and K's that much is certainly a pitch taking machine.
http://bullpese hitsnbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=334:2011top100trobinson&catid=20:2011writeups&Itemid=5

A real ugly AB from the left side.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWg5B1f1ytg&feature=related
 
 
 

But getting Chiang as well in the trade is a steal, IMO.  It would be like somebody trading Choo along with As-Cab, and nobody would do...that...
Doc was talking about topspin hitters, and how Trayvon isn't one.  Well, Chiang is.  Look at his GB% (always around 50%) and his LD % (20, 16, 20 the last 3 years).
Once the Sox got him some dietary help he just exploded onto the scene.
 
“Call him Video Game Chiang,” Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks said of Portland teammate Chih-Hsieh Chiang at the All-Star Futures Game, where both players represented the Sox. “He hits the ball with video game pop. He hits the ball harder than anyone I’ve seen. He squares balls up. If he squares a ball up, and a guy is throwing hard, he’ll hit a ball 500 feet, no problem.”
“He’s always had that pop but he’s more consistent with it now. He hits line drives, I flinch because I think they’re going to kill somebody. … This guy hits the ball so hard, and it’s to all fields. He hit a ball, actually it was in spring training, he hit a ball to left-center, a lot of righties couldn’t pull it that far. It’s just unreal how hard he hits the ball.”

Now, he tends to go oppo, IIRC, which will NOT help him in the Safe.  He's not a strict lefty pull-hitter.  But now that his diet is fixed...we'll see if he can hit like that forevermore.  Glad he wanted to come around on managing his diabetes.
 
But the issue went beyond just available foods for Chiang. Until this year, he seemed at times to struggle with the dedication needed to properly regulate his blood sugar.
“It was hard, especially if you’re a professional athlete in the first couple of years,” acknowledged Chiang. “I needed to make an adjustment.”
Chiang showed a desire to increase the vigilance with which he maintains his condition. The Sox were happy to help.
“This year we got him with a Chinese-speaking nutritionist at MGH. We’ve seen his energy level and his play increase a ton. He’s changed his diet,” said Hazen. “He’s definitely been more focused on it this season. It’s paid off on the field.”

Better diet, better preparation defensively, better swings at the plate...and better results.  We might have bought low on this kid, and I'd love for that to be the case.
I'd take Raul Ibanez with a rocket arm again, thank you very much.  
~G

Adam Jones K'ed at a 20% clip in the minors. Travyon is at 25%.  Anything above 22% really hurts a prospect's chances of translating their success unless the secondary skills are silly.
The Halman/Wlad/Peguero class are a good example of how the skills tend to fall flat at MLB.

Normally I'm against guys who strike out a metric ton, and anybody below that 22% mark (or if you wanna go off at-bats instead of PAs, then it's about 25%) is not the safest bet.
OTOH, if he's Greg Halman with twice the walks that seems like a better bet than Greg Halman himself is.  It's hard to be a CF who strikes out 175 times a year, but as Doc mentioned Granderson did it.  Cammy lived in the 160s. High Ks are not auto-death, and the amount that Trayvon needs to improve to get into that Cameron range is not large. 
Maybe he can't and that's why the Dodgers gave up on him - maybe they plan to re-sign Kemp, and they like Jerry Sands better on a corner.
I'd love for that decision - or at least their decision to include him in this particular deal - comes back to haunt them, and help us.
It's more bodies for the meat grinder.  If Guti remains a corpse and Halman doesn't work, we now have Robinson in CF and Saunders still trying to recover for another shot in AAA.  Personally I think Robinson gets pushed to the front of the line, and Guti winds up on the 60 day DL shortly, but we'll see.
If LF there's Carp and Halman still behind Wells, and then whomever remains in 2013 will get Chiang and Catricala and I guess Peguero added to the mix in RF.
Jack is basically saying that the plan does NOT involve free agent outfielders.  Guti will get better or be replaced.  Wells will work out or get replaced.  We'll probably take some of our now-surplus OF and move it.
Will Trayvon work out?  I dunno.  I think he will, in an Adam Jones sense (except with more walks). If he doesn't, though, we have options.
SOMEBODY is gonna work out.
The bigger question to me is what this means in the Ms quest for another MOTO bat.  No more outfield positions, 1B blocked off, that leaves 3B and DH basically, and it's tough sledding getting a 3B who's a clubber...
Man, Rendon would make this plan awesome.  As it is I have to rely on Martinez the 5-tooler and Franklin the SS.
Though if these traded players work out with some promoted guys, we're not gonna have a lot of minus hitters - and an entire lineup of 110 OPS+ hitters can work out fine.
Let's hope Trayvon can be one and we can move on to other positions.
~G

I'd rather package Travyon in trade if we could in the offseason. The problem isn't the Ks at the MLB level, but the fact that high Ks in the minors signal the kind of batter that is brutalized against better pitching. Not a believer in that skillset at the MLB level.
After thinking it over, I think we still may have an OF problem. I'd bet against any of Travyon, Wells, Halman, Peguero, and Saunders panning out as regulars, meaning we'll be waiting to see if Chiang is for real and trying to get Guti back to being healthy again. We also hope that Carp can hang in LF.
The danger is that we could be sifting through all these OF options next year only to find out that none of them stick. I think we need a quantity for quality trade this offseason to solve at least one OF spot with someone reliable like Denard Span (ideal target given price tag).

Per fangraphs, 14.0% BB rate, 23.9% K rate, 23 dbl, 5 tpl, 9 HR, 37 SB
.297/.401/.434; 0.58 eye
I'd love to see something like that in CF.
I agree with Doc that he hasn't necessarily regressed in AAA, he's just different.
10.8% BB rate, 29.3% K rate, 9 dbl, 6 tpl, 26 HR, 8 SB
.293/.375/.563; 0.37 eye
Yeah, that looks like a conscious choice to be a different type of hitter, not "backsliding."
If he can get back under 25% K rate and find a happy medium, that would be thrilling in CF.  Then maybe down the road he can become Granderson, but he'd still be a valuable guy even if he doesn't.

Let's looks at Sickels' rankings.
In the Fister deal we pulled the pre-2011 ranked #10 (Wells) #11 (Martinez) and #17 (Furbush) prospects from the Tigers, as well as (rumored) the #7 (Ruffin) or #9 (Smyly).
Then in the Bedard trade we snagged the #3 prospect (Trayvon) from the Dodgers.  Chiang wasn't on any pre-season top-whatever lists but IMO he'd definitely be one some for 2012 based on this season.  Consider him a "teens" prospect as well.
Furbush is under-rated IMO as a "soft-tosser" when he's not, really. Living at 91-92 as a lefty is Bedard territory, and I wouldn't call Bedard a softy.  As a starter he'd have even more value, assuming he can keep the hits down.
Ruffin would be a great reliever who is ready now, and Smyly is another MOR+ level guy who cruised through A+ and is getting his feet wet in AA (on the level of a healthy Maurer, a bit below Taijuan Walker).
Martinez...I'm not a believer, but it's 3B.  He doesn't have to do a lot to be better than what we've been running out there the last two years, and he gives us another trade chip.
Trayvon is a top 50 prospect.
Jack was very, very serious about restocking the farm.  Just slot em based on what you've seen this year or know about em, and our top 20 (in no particular order) will likely include:
Hultzen with his #2 draftpick status and world of possibilities, Paxton and his 12K/4.5 BB self, Taijuan's 10.5K/3.5BB younger self, Campos demolishing short-season with a mid-to-high 90s FB that he can throw into a teacup, let's say Smyly and his low-90s sinker with great control, Maurer somewhere lower thanks to injury concerns but with good stuff and results, Shipers even with his control issues, Landazuri striking out 9 per in Everett, Angel Raga after we let him out of the pen to maim lineups from the rotation, and in relief Bischoff, Burgoon, and Pryor now that he's found his control...
And those are just the arms...and not even ALL the arms.  John Taylor, South Carolina's closer, is an interesting submarining relief arm that could move fast. Andy Carraway, Tony Vasquez and Erasmo Ramirez are all going to be easy to pass over for higher-velocity arms even though those soft-ish tossers have all succeeded at AA, the killing fields for soft-tossers who can't cut it in the bigs.  Ambioris Hidalgo is another interesting rookie-baller even though I can't say his first name.  Cam Hobson is having fun making hitters look stupid while we limit his innings in Everett. Moran had a bad year, but isn't done as a bullpen arm.  Gillheeney is a HR-allowing machine in High Desert, but who isn't?  His numbers are great otherwise.
What about the bats? Franklin, Trayvon, Catricala, Martinez, Liddi, Pimentel, both Pegueros, Castillo, and potentially Brad Miller and/or Kevin Cron from this year's draft are all trying to get spaces in that top 20. 
A top 20 that DOESN'T include Ackley, Carp, Lueke, Furbush, Wells, Beavan and some other graduates, or someone like Ji-Man Choi (lost season due to a broken vertebrae).
I would say now is the time to trade some assets...but for what position?  We just plugged up the OF with about 10 options for 3 spots.  Seager, Liddi and Martinez can duel for the right to replace Figgins at 3B.
First base and second base we're good at for a while.  Shortstop has Ryan now and Franklin or Miller later.
Trade some pitching for a long-term catcher (the Reds REALLY want to give us Grandal, I know they do...), arrange for a real hitter at DH, and I think we go to war.
The only question is how fast can the kids learn?  Howard and Chuck finally got a GM who can run this club the way they want, without ever getting crazy with free agent years or dollars, and letting players go who want to much once they hit free agency.
If we keep losing a hundred games a year it's not gonna be a lot of fun...but with the talent resources we're piling up toward filling a 25 man roster with capable players, we can't lose like that forever.
Right?
~G

Robinson, Wells, Halman, Saunders - these guys are certainly toolsy.  Taro makes a good point about K rates and the minors.  Certainly Z's brain trust - which includes Tango, knows this.  I'm going to put him somewhere between Granderson, Adam Jones and Balentien, but closer to the former 2 than the latter.
We like to throw out Balentien as a cautionary tale, but the book is far from closed on poor Wladimir.  Wladdie is still only 25 and at age 24 posted a .779 OPS for Cincy in his 125  NL PAs.  Currently he's slugging .872 in Louisville, biding his time with that same skillset that suggests he can hit ML pitching, but probably doesn't have the tools to make it worthwhile to give him a regular job there.  Robinson at CF has those tools.  I ESPECIALLY like that he took the move from the Cal League to the Southern league and owned it wth a .404 OBP with 73 walks.  We didn't see that from Peguero, or Chavez, Triunfel, Liddi or Poythress.   I see a kid who's still young punishing AA and AAA.
But here's an idea.  Toss out the blueprint we're working with.  Robinson had a .404 OBP with 38 SBs as a 22 year old in AA.  Why not make him a leadoff hitter?  The kid looks like a young Lou Brock to me, a combination of speed and power to go with a lot of K's.  Maybe less speed, but a better walk rate.

a top-10 or, sad to say, top-5 draft pick.  As of right now: 1. Astros; 2. Cubs; 3. Orioles; 4. Mariners; 5. Royals.

Keeping an eye on the progress of a pair of highs school Williamses, Trey and Nick (3B and OF respectively) and Victor Roache, 1B/OF, if we get that top-5 or top-10 pick.
I hate taking pitchers with a top 5 pick, have I mentioned that?  Really hate to do it two years in a row...
Bring me more hitting.  TIA.
~G

...after a couple bad months. :)  If he's not the answer and absolutely doesn't work out, we still have 1B locked down for a couple years while we find that out.
He won't have a .240 BABIP against righties forever.  He won't have a lot of .399 (!!) OPS months like he did in July.
And not to be blunt, but his dad won't die every year and leave him without his best friend, swing coach, confidant and, well, father.
Justin's better than his last 6 weeks.  Don't sweat it too hard.  He knows it and the Mariners know it.
And soon we'll all get to see it - which is why there's not gonna be a search for a 2012 first baseman - he's on the team already.
~G