What we hope we got:
- CF with on-base ability (not walks) and good power (35 DB and 27 HR per 162 in the minors),
- LH starter or crackerjack reliever (9.5K / 2.5 BB in minors career, destroyed AAA this year) with improving velocity
- 5-tool 3B prospect already in the high minors at 20
- Papelbon-type closer ready to help now or blue-chip starter about to hit AA.
What we might have gotten:
- LF whose poor-eye, low-average, moderate RH power approach will be devoured by the Safe
- LH reliever who gives up too many hits to be successful
- 5-tool hitter who is 0-for-5 in turning those tools into performance
- a lesser PTBNL that doesn't pan out
As I think you can tell, I'm not sold on the the 3B Martinez. That said, he's doing exactly what he should be doing: increasing his BA and ISO every year, even while being pushed hard up the ladder. He's got potential either for us or as a trade piece again, and if he IS the guy that scouts say he could be then his explosion over the next couple years could be a delight for us.
I like Furbush quite a bit, depending on his role with us, and Wells I only like in CF, and there reluctantly. .250/.340/.500 (his minor league line) would be great in CF if he could do it, but counting on opposing pitchers to hit you a lot, Fernando-Vina-Style, is less impressive to me than having a good batting eye. And we have a low-average, high-power option in Halman already, so all Wells brings over that is the ability to get HBP. Not my idea of a trade centerpiece under most circumstances.
Halman is a .250/.310/.490 career minor leaguer, btw, was at a walk every 12.5 PAs last season, for instance, while Wells put up a 12.6. Halman strikes out more, and Wells gets HBP more, but is that delta enough to trade FISTER for?
It might work out for us. But I'm gonna need non-Wells guys to work out, and for him to play CF. We're selling Fister as his high-value point, in theory, but that means we better have gotten what that version of Fister is worth.
Right now it feels like we got $1.05 back on our dollar's worth of Fister, which is a plus return...I guess, technically...
But I'm not jumping for joy. It's not $2.50, and none of the pieces seem equal to Fister's worth by themselves, which means we gave up the best player in the deal. Not the way want it to go down ideally, but sometimes it's necessary when you have a lot of holes to trade one very good player for several merely-good ones.
Now, Furbush turning into Jered Weaver, Martinez becoming Miguel Tejada and Wells pulling a Jayson Werth changes my outlook. Ruffin becoming Papelbon is just icing on that cake. ;)
But if only one of the guys we traded for works out, I wouldn't put the odds on Wells, which would leave us in the same bat-desperate position we were in before.
Which is not what I wanted from a Fister trade.
But we'll see - I wasn't sold on Guti either and before his illness he was definitely proving his worth, and Vargas was a great pickup in that deal. Carp might be too, if we let him play.
Jack made his play using one of his more valuable assets - now we see how it pans out. I choose to be optimistic for now...mostly. ;)
~G
Zduriencik (and/or his writers) crafted the statement carefully:
"We felt that today's deal provided us the opportunity to acquire several players that are at or near the Major League ready and we could control for five to six years, all of whom have upside potential,'' GM Jack Zduriencik said in a release."We believe it improves the construction of our Major League roster by adding a right-handed bat and a left-handed arm immediately.And thanks to the young arms we have in our system, we believe that we were able to add talent to our organization while dealing from an area of depth.''
acquire several players that are at or near the Major League ready and we could control for five to six years
"all of whom have upside potential,'' ... "We believe it improves the construction of our Major League roster by adding a right-handed bat and a left-handed arm immediately."
"And thanks to the young arms we have in our system, we believe that we were able to add talent to our organization while dealing from an area of depth.''
"add talent to our organization while dealing from an area of depth.''
Comments
I really liked Gut when we acquired him, but he was more proven in CF and we didn't trade as valuable an asset as Fister.
Fister is far more valuable IMO than a declining closer with a year+ left on his deal.
Maybe we're underselling Casper's D? How good is he out there?
Agreed:
But if only one of the guys we traded for works out, I wouldn't put the odds on Wells, which would leave us in the same bat-desperate position we were in before.
Which is not what I wanted from a Fister trade.
The uncomfortable part of the trade is Casper Wells' chance to fail. That's cheerfully conceded by everybody.
As to whether it could become $2.50 on the dollar...
Well, if they put Casper in CF, and he hits like Mike Morse, that's Josh Reddick easily, right?
Then you add two lockdown RP's, one right and one left, and that actually is a 'wow' deal.
I'm with you on Francisco Martinez - will believe it when I see it. No reason to reject him, as such, but the M's have any number of minors bats in his class.
***
Seems like I should do a front-page Roundtable post or three on that, G. Keep it comin' man.
Almost too good for LF / RF, but maybe not quite good enough for CF.
That is my first impression from the tapes, also ... but remember, I believe that "fringy" CF range becomes easily good enough in Safeco.
Detroit fans seem to buy into him as a CF.
***
It's the number 1 thing that I'll be watching next week: whether they look at him in CF.
Of course they couldn't announce him as a CF even if they wanted to: Guti is not phased out by any stretch.
I had written off Michael Saunders after his putrid showing in the majors, but here is what Churchill had to say from today's Tacoma game:
More impressive was Saunders' oppo shot to straight away left. Second homer to that side of field in a week. He's truly making adjustments.
He then hit another homer to left down the left field line as well as a liner the other way, going 5 for 5 on the night. He's also got an excellent walk rate since being sent down. If he can be productive with the bat, then he can take over in center allowing Wells to play left. It will be interesting to see if he gets another chance because he doesn't have much time left to prove himself in this org.
And not sure how apropos it is, but I likes me some comps I'm familiar with...
Adam Jones at 20 was in AAA batting .287/.345/.484
FMar at 20 in AA, batting .282/.319/.405
Important similarities: Both characterized as super athletic, potential 5-tool guys. Both righty. Both with BB/KK numbers that cause bitter beer face. Similarly pushed young development.
Important differences: Jones with the bigger frame, Martinez with the tougher fielding position (although again, reports that he may need to move to the outfield). Jones with a rep as having an attitude, Martinez a rep as a coachable dude.
Viewed in this light, I can see why Martinez is the guy the Tigers fans were smarting from. Notice also that Martinez went from A+ ball to AA, and his OPS went up. There's a bit of Sandy's 'learning' skill he looks for there.
Anyway, Jones now 25 posting 122 OPS+ in CF...
OK. More and more, since yesterday, I've begun to see this as a validation of Z's belief in Beavan.
He's 22 yrs old. Has show he's a workhorse (160+ innings in both '09-'10, split between A+ and AAA). He's on track right now for that many, or more, split between Tacoma and Seattle.
In a day when GM's treat young arms like they are fragile Faberge Eggs that is saying quite a bit.
He is a fastball-change up type of guy. He's throwing the FB 76% of the time this year in Seattle and the change 11%. I like guys who know what they do well and then keep doing it. Beavan certainly does. He keeps it simple and it works.
He just doesn't walk anybody. In '09 he walked 20 guys in 168 innings, 11 per 8, and he's walked only 4 in 26 (supposedly nervous) MLB innings this year. He throws a 91 mph heater that is probably deceptively fast, because of his big frame and stride, and he throws it on the black.
He lit A ball up as a 19 year old, then dropped back a bit at A+. But since then he been moved up in a hurry and got better each 2nd go aound (to begin a season) at a particular level.
So Beavan is Fister. Or thereabouts. So Fister is a tradeable guy.
OK. I'll buy in.
But....I'm not sure the return for Fister was rich enough. Like any trade, there is an air of "if only...." about it. But there are several "if onlies" that have to come into play for this one to be right.
Wells must mash if a LF (we already have a LF who projects to have a better bat) or must displace Guti in CF. (Has it been said? This acquisition sure seems to indicate that the Halman/Peguero/Guti/Carp group is about to be whittled down).
The lefty could become a dominant middle guy, or a better-than-decent starter. Or the 3B guy or PTBNL can develop. But 2 of the 4 must occur to make this a decent trade.
But, if you consider Beavan as "part" of the trade, then the risk is greatly reduced. You only need one new guy to develop if Beavan continues to show his "Fisterish/Beavan-ish" Maddux-lite stuff..
I'm willing to look at it that way.
So I'm now in (as long as Carp stays a full-time player).
But I would have been more in if Span came this way.
moe