Seattle Sports Insider

Fister for Wells: The Big Idea

Posted by

7/30/11

=== The "Big Idea" ===

It says here that --- > the Mariners view Wells as their 4th quality position player. The RH Casper Wells hitting 3-4-5-6 with LH Ackley, LH* Smoak and LH Carp.

They expect Wells to provide either (1) the 100+ center field bat that Denard Span would have brought, or else (2) an immediate 115+ OPS bat in left field. Mike Carp becomes the DH if Wells is not in center field.

Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush provide Fister replacement for this year, while Paxton and the others in the Big Four pile into the stadium shortly. Therefore the Mariners lose relatively little in the 25-man paradigm, but gain a key reliable offensive player.

=== The Gravy ===

Charlie Furbush is a big SSI two thumbs up: think George Sherrill, plus a couple feet on his fastball, plus a pitcher's frame, plus the certified ability to start in the rotation if desired.

Furbush is a very sophisticated add: the Mariners have a traffic jam in the rotation, so Furbush provides a stud LHP reliever / swing man who adds massive flexibility to the pitching staff.

Don't sell Furbush short. This is a power sidearm lefty with Sherrill-type deception.

***

Martinez and the PTBNL are, in Zduriencik's vision, the house vigorish, the guys who make the deal a big win for him.

=== The Bad Beat Scenario ===

If Casper Wells does not provide 550 AB's per year, starting now, and with quality offense attached, the trade blows chunks. The deal stands or falls with Zduriencik's judgment that Casper Wells is a good everyday player in the American League.

He doesn't have to be Ackley or Smoak, and he doesn't even have to slug .500 like Mike Carp does in his upside. But he has to hurt pitchers with his bat, and regularly, and permanently.

***

Also, if the Mariners kick Mike Carp to the curb, and this turns out to be a mistake, then Mike Carp will be a much worse error for Jack Zduriencik than --- > Shin Soo-Choo ever was for the Mariners.

If Casper Wells is merely replacing Mike Carp, then this trade is a gross blunder. (Except in the variation in which, in the year 2014, the outcome is obvious against Carp.)

I doubt this will occur. The Mariners seem to be able to judge hitting ability in just a few AB's. Carp is putting on a daily clinic in front of their eyes.

=== The Jackpot Scenario ===

Wells may be able to play center field, and hit above-average-ly, and if so this becomes the Josh Reddick deal -- a great trade even in a vacuum.

Or, Wells may turn out to be a 100-RBI man in LF, with excellent defense in a corner, and if so the deal moves the Mariners several yards forward in their own context.

=== Dr's Prognosis ===

Could Wells become a good hitter? Sure. Zduriencik thinks he already is.

Here is a replay of a home run that he hits off a changeup. Position your cursor at the 30-second mark and replay it a bunch of times. Note how supernaturally "quiet" his head and upper body are throughout the swing; he uses natural power with the swing, like Richie Sexson.

As far as batspeed, here is a snaketongue-fast double down the LF line off an inside fastball from Matt Harrison.

***

This defensive catch-and-throw gives you a sense of how light on his feet he is for a big man. Wells is the 5-tool guy: real big upper body, runs well, looks like a football player but in a baseball form.

This running catch in CF gives you a feel for what he might look like in CF at Safeco -- perhaps roughly like Michael Saunders.

This sliding RF catch sounds echoes of Jay Buhner.

***

Can Wells play center? Will he? If he's so good, why wasn't he in the bigs faster? Will Safeco hurt him? POTD is forthcoming.

Wells isn't a given to be a good regular player, in my opinion, but I like his chances and Zduriencik loves his chances. The trade stands or falls with that.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

CF vs LF is the key for me too...as is the PTBNL

We needed a hitter now, so for Fister AND Pauley we got:

Casper Wells, he of the .250 BA in the minors, who walks some, has a good OBP thanks to HBP, Ks a ton, has decent pop in his bat and is 26. As I said earlier, he's a RH and slightly worse version of Mike Carp, but in CF that's great. In LF? Instead of Carp? I think it's a mistake. He's listed as having 60% of his games played in CF for his minor league career, so I figured we'd put him at a corner, where I don't have a lot of faith in him being a plus bat. But he could do good work in center, so let's hope that's the case.

Charlie Furbush, a former borderline soft-tosser who gets a surprising amount of Ks for his mph, not unlike Jered Weaver, I guess. Hard to read the ball out of his hand, and his fastball has finally come back after TJ surgery to the Weaver range of 91-92 with the occasional spike to 93 or 94, I hear. I'd expect to move him out of the pen and back to the rotation at latest by next Spring. But as you say, maybe we have the rotation filled, and if so he CAN be a good bullpenner as well. Flexibility and talent are two good things.

Francisco Martinez, a very toolsy 3B who has yet to make good on any of those tools, but has been thrown skidding up the ladder and might still have a big breakout coming...just as soon as he fixes his eye, his Ks, his inability to hit for average, etc. Letting him slow down for a second and breathe might help, I guess.

The PTBNL makes this really interesting if it's one of Detroit't top 3 picks from 2010 as rumored.

As the Detroit GM says on a post about those rumors:
As part of the deal, the Mariners will also receive a player to be named later, who is expected to be identified on or before Aug. 20. And that player, according to Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski, is “somebody we don’t want to lose.”
...
"He'll be a good player," Dombrowski said of the soon-to-be named player. "He's not just going to be a guy that you would say, 'Oh, that's an organizational player.'"

If it's Chance Ruffin, then with Wells in CF I definitely get it. Ruffin is trying to be Papelbon, and doing a mostly great job of it. I think it's more likely to be Drew Smyly, who is another very good pitcher in high-A with a low-90s sinker, a good curve, and some kind of cutter/change. Ruffin could free up League for a trade, since he's got future closer written all over him, and Smyly could make Taijuan Walker available - or just be used himself in a later deal.

We didn't get gypped in the Fister trade if this plays out right...but Wells HAS to play in CF, which means we're bailing on Guti and don't believe in Halman yet - two understandable things.

Let's see where they put Wells and if Guti winds up on the 60 day so that Casper plays center from here out.

And tell me who the PTBNL is. Then I can get a better handle on what we were planning when we provided the Tigers with a ML battle-hardened pitcher throwing like a solid #3 and under club control for 4 years.

Furbush is good. Wells in CF is good. Either of those two pitchers would be good.

But the trade has some kinks to work out yet if the package is gonna be great.

~G

OK, Doc....

I've been watching some Wells highlight videos today, too. Looks like he can move enough to play CF. If he can be a 100 OPS guy and be Saunders in CF then he is indeed a guy to like.
The catch going to the wall in CF is worth remembering.
Perhaps Z sees him a next year's CF if Guti doesn't find a bat again (I think he may have lost it for good). Or maybe this is the kick Guti to the curb move? Any Carp lost PA's right now is really stupid.
Wells' follow through is Sexson-esque, I think.
He isn't going to hit 25 homers year after year, though. 16-20 is a very fair bet. He will strike out. He won't walk much.
But he is the key. No flexable middle reliever is worth Fister. So the M's took a loss on the thrower swap. Wells MUST be a fulltime player to make this a win for the M's.
As a .265 hitting 4th OF, getting in 350-400 AB's..he won't produce enough for this trade to make up for the 4 years of cheap Doogie.
And he isn't Span.
Z flat out rolled the dice. Wells is a .260 hitter at AA and a .240 hitter at AAA. As late as last year he hit .230 in AAA. Z has fallen for a guy with a set of tools. He's betting he can bring them together in the bigs in a way he never did in the minors.
That is a ballsy bet.
Or maybe Wells is nothing but a 4th OF but you get lucky and the 20 yr old AA 3B who hasn't hit anywhere since he was 17 blossoms. But he better be the fulltime 100 OPS guy.
Z's all in, that's for sure. Let's hope his faith in his cards is justified. I HATE losing Fister. But I'll be a good fan and trust this will all work out.
It had better.

Wells and Guti

Carp was batting 4th today (and picked up the only non-Ackley RBI.) Don't know if that means anything other than Wedge thinking he can clean up better than most the misfits in the lineup. I'd like to think it was a vote of confidence from Wedge and up to Z.
If Wells can play center, then maybe it's not Carp whose playing time is in trouble but Gutierrez. Wonder if Z is preparing to punt on Guti?

I don't like that the deal

I don't like that the deal depends on a major gamble, but we have to hope that Wells can hit in Safeco.. His skillset really isn't that great of a fit, so hes going to need to be an exception to the rule.
I wouldn't have done it.. But lets see what Wells has got. He can certainly play great D, perhaps he sticks in CF.

The grass is greener.....

Interesting. In his first MLB callup Carp OPS+ 138 in 65 PA's. Wells had a 144 over just shy of 100 PA's.
Yet it took 2 more years (and a complete dominance of AAA pitching) for the M's to decide Carp could really play.
Z seems to have made that decision with Wells w/o the AAA (or AA) dominance.
Well's was WAY impressive last year. This year he is just solid.
Z's bet is that some of last year bleeds over into the next 4.
Wells' (1st callup) grass was greener than Carp.

Rolling the dice

PRO’s
Mariner Outfield WAR Year to Date --- (-1) WAR
Casper Wells WAR in 224 Big League PA’s --- 2.3 WAR
Granted, SSS caveats apply and Wells risks getting overexposed and will likely pay the Safeco surcharge, but if he continued his current pace he would accrue 5.6 WAR over 550 PA’s. That is significant. As a comparison, Mike Wilson, Peguero, Halman, and Saunders, totaled a disturbing -1.2 WAR during their time in Seattle this season. Seeing as our outfield is sucking chest wound at the moment I like Wells’ (albeit somewhat limited) upside, I’m bullish. Our current outfield is performing worse than 3 replacement outfielders. We need help. Badly.
Digging through his Fangraphs page, I found that his lowest wOBA of his minor league time was .338 last season, accompanied by an outlier .271 BABIP. His AA numbers are particularly impressive, ISOP well into the 200’s.
He looks solid+ defensively; Tigers fans, scouts, and UZR seem to agree. If he’s replacing Guti and/or pushing Carp to DH, I like this move.
Furbush’s K/9 and K/BB are impressive. Watching some highlights of him pitching vs Boston and he looked good. Lefty in Safeco. Diggin it.
Martinez and PTBNL both have upside. Martinez is 20 in AA with a .700+ OPS.
If either of the two minor leaguers make it to the bigs I feel like we win this trade.
CONS
I can’t shake the sense that Z traded a dollar for 80 cents here. I think Fister alone will be worth Furbush and Wells over the next few years, and in a vacuum the trade seems iffy. He’s been progressing nicely and if the market wasn’t so hot I personally would have held on to him. Package him with another impact prospect/player, just so we can be happier with who is coming back our way. If Fister alone doesn’t do it, up the package till we get something GOOD.
Of course we all love rooting for Fister too, and it hurts to see him go just on that alone.
Granted we have to deal from a position of strength to shore up weaknesses, but given what Fister is worth surely we could have done better.

Bottom line: If Wells plays CF and slugs .460, and Paxton moves into the #3 spot, I can get behind this trade. Otherwise I feel like we should have saved our chips.

TJM sez

Assuming Wells is going to be the semi-regular LF and Pena the semi-regular DH, I ask again why can't Carp play some 3B? If he can catch ground balls on one side of the infield, he can catch them on the other. And if his arm is good enough to play left, it's good enough to play third. For God's sake, Harmon Killebrew played third! As much as I loved Kenndy's first half, he sure looks finished these last several weeks. As long as Smoak is going to imitate the worst hitter in the league, at which he has done an excellent job for months now, I'd sacrifice defense to get another bat in the line-up and establish an offense the team can build on. Who knows, maybe Wells will hit, too.
And the more I watch Ackley, the more I see a George Brett career as his ceiling. Brett, when he came up, weighed 175 soaking wet. With minmal homers, he slugged 450-plus right off the bat, had great speed (he had 20 triples one year and double figures three other times) and didn't get to be the blockier guy we remember until he'd been in the league a decade.
I think Carp is a legit MLB hitter and the idea of Ackley-(a revived) Smoak-Carp MOTO.
-tjm

Denard Span

I dont get where the talk is coming from that Fister for Span was on the table and the M's picked Wells + Furbush ++.
As far as what's out there, there's talk of Span for Storen with other players involved.
I think the M's did well in the trade a lefty who misses bats plus a serviceable OF and 2 prospects you cant ask for anything more for Fister

Shrill

The psychology of this deal is vastly more interesting to me than the SABR/WAR route.
Did Z jettison Fister befor he caught the current M's loseritis? What about Fister's game is so volatile that he would stand to lose value in the future? Was Fister really just tricking batters this season?!
Z is, unfortunately for the Mariners, running out of time. The higher ups need to begin turning in better looking spreadsheets to the board and I am sure that Z knows this.
He sold low on Fister. It was a shrill move coming off a damning losing streak.
Verlander, scherzer, fister, porcello, turner...almost as good as the rotation the M's used to have :-(