I'm just fine with riding Fister through the next three years of arbitration. He won't be tacking up up Lincecum's arb. dollar figures and should remain affordable. Trading Fister and loosing Bedard means penciling in Luke French and Blake Beaven. There will come a time when over the next three years the M's will be taking a serious look at guys like Walker, Paxton, and Hultzen. You might say, "Hey, Fister has become redundant. Let's trade him."
If you calculate Figgins at 1 in 1000 to take a dive then where do place Fister? If he continues to pitch well over the next few years it will only further establish his value. Trade him? Last year of arbitration? Sure why not. How about ride him all of the way through arb and get the A or B draft pick? Don't forget this is how small market teams have become successful.
Fister hasn't become redundant for the M's just yet. He's sitting on green grass. Last year Jack put the Rangers and the Yankees between a rock and a hard spot. Those are the situations a GM looks for. Trading fister to just rearrange the chairs? Careful of that greener grass. Considering the situation the M's are in, I'd be asking the world for the guy as well.
TOR, Top-of-the-Rotation Starter, means #1-2-3 starter to me. Staff ace or co-ace, potential 15-game winner on a good team.
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June 2011: the cyber-consensus is that Doug Fister might be worth a B, B+ prospect if the M's decided to deal him. Don't get too excited, says the Bottom Line on Seattle Cyber-Center. This is a Safeco pitcher, a guy who would hit the windshield in another park. Not a guy who brings back premium names.
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July 3, 2011: SSI opines that Doug Fister is a WAR/$ Tyrannosaurus.
Consensus seems to be that Fister wouldn't be worth much in trade, because the guess is that other GM's would be skeptical of Fister if he left Safeco.
The guess here is that other GM's understand about FIP, about Cy Young "makeup," and about lousy run support. :- )
Scouts love "makeup," and Fister's surgeon-cool heroism during this 3-and-10 run is exactly what they're looking for. If you don't know how much scouts love to see SP's battle when they have no run support, then ask one sometime... anybody can pitch when things are going well. The question is what a guy does when the bounces are going against him.
You've got a guy with robot-monotonous mechanics, a horse who has now gone TEN! straight games pitching into the 8th and 9th, a guy with 6 K's and 1+ walks, and you've got a pitcher with Game 7 makeup.
Fister's park-neutral stats, such as K/BB, are terrific. The Yankees know who Doug Fister is. "Don't undersell this guy. He's a battler." That's how they close the files on guys like Fister.
Doug Fister, in the first half, earned $11.7M in value for the Mariners, and he was paid $218,250.
Even if Fister dropped back to the $12M yearly performance that he brought in 2010, a team is looking at a full $50-70M worth of performance for a total of about $15-20M in salary.
(If Fister pitches like he is in 2011, his new team is going to receive $100,000,000 worth of performance from him. And it will be well aware of this fact. Everybody has a Tom Tango or Voros McCracken on staff these days.)
SSI guess was that if Doug Fister were to be made available, that he would return a huge trade package.
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July 26, 2011. MLB Trade Rumors reports that "every team that is looking for rotation help" is "drooling" over Doug Fister.
SSI crunches this as: Fister's market rectangle is wide, therefore high. He is seen not only as a bargain pitcher, but a star pitcher.
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July 28, 2011. Jack Zduriencik is quoted by an unnamed trade partner: there is "zero" chance that the Mariners trade Doug Fister.
There y'go amig-O. From zero to --- > SSI hero to --- > belle of the July 31 ball to ---> as untouchable as Dustin Ackley or Felix Hernandez...
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July 29, 2011. It doesn't make any sense to Dr. D that Fister should be untouchable. If the Mariners could trade Doug Fister for Josh Reddick, why wouldn't they? Equal exchange of young pitcher for young hitter, and the M's have plenty more pitching where Fister came from.
It makes sense to me only as a swing for the fences: that Zduriencik wants Reddick (or whoever) for Vargas plus, and keep Fister.
Talk about greed. Naked and unvarnished, as in.
***
The July 31, 2011 bazaar (bizarre?) was the anointing of Doug Fister as a TOR. Baseball's come a long ways to do that to a young pitcher who is 3-and-12. So has Fister come a long ways.
At the 145-inning mark, Fister's FIP is 3.23, lower than --- > Michael Pineda's, James Shields', Jon Lester's, Ricky Romero's and Alexi Ogando's. He's earned $13.6M in value so far this year.
***
You can't throw lefty in Fenway, much less 87 mph and lefty. Vargas for Reddick, specifically, looks unpossible. But you can throw lefty in Yankee, I'll tell ya that.
Last year, Jack pitted the Yankees/Lee against the Rangers/Lee. Maybe this year he's pitting the Yankees/Vargas against the Red Sox/Fister.
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Be Afraid,
Dr D
Comments
If I'm Zduriencik, I'm asking for a Lee-like return to trade Fister. Which means I'm not trading him, because no one will pay a Lee ransom.
This is the year to move Bedard (and hope to sign him again next offseason) and maybe Vargas too...but not Fister...
Let it not be forgotten that Mr. Fister or "the Fist" as some people call him, isn't just one of the better pitchers in baseball. He is also one of the Mariners best hitters! His slugging percentage is only surpassed by Dustin Ackley. He is also an excellent fielder, and shows great skill when he has covered homeplate, the mound, or first base. The Mariners have no excuse for suppressing one of the hottest bats and best gloves in their lineup.
My wife and I made it to one game this year, and in it, Fister had a zero one loss to the Padres, and he only gave up a point because a Padres hitter was walked on only three balls. That game, none of the Mariners showed up to hit (or do anything else), except Halman and Brendan Ryan. If Fister had a bat that game, the Ms probably would have won. :)
Let it not be forgotten that Mr. Fister or "the Fist" as some people call him, isn't just one of the better pitchers in baseball. He is also one of the Mariners best hitters! His slugging percentage is only surpassed by Dustin Ackley. He is also an excellent fielder, and shows great skill when he has covered homeplate, the mound, or first base. The Mariners have no excuse for suppressing one of the hottest bats and best gloves in their lineup.
My wife and I made it to one game this year, and in it, Fister had a zero one loss to the Padres, and he only gave up a point because a Padres hitter was walked on only three balls. That game, none of the Mariners showed up to hit (or do anything else), except Halman and Brendan Ryan. If Fister had a bat that game, the Ms probably would have won. :)
In a perfect world Fister is the one we can keep. Bedard goes and brings us a catcher in return, maybe Vargas goes and brings us a left-fielder, and we figure out who can start for us in 2012. A top 3 of Felix/Pineda/Fister is really good. The competitors for the other spots:
- Beavan, who doesn't strike anybody out but can control the zone. Young and very talented, even if the velocity never comes back from his teen days.
- Carraway - see: Beavan, except he DOES strike people out (like Fister does, anyway) and he's a stone-cold pitcher with a finance degree and an internship at a private equity firm. I like him as the underdog.
- French...moving on...
- Hultzen - no I don't think he starts immediately out of college, but I can see the M's promoting him in, say, June if he starts out hot. he'll get a chance in ST to impress.
- Erasmo Ramirez - his velocity is coming up, and his control is always great, but he gets hit too much which is making him give up runs. A couple more tweaks and he can be ready to compete for a spot.
- Tony Vasquez - gives up too many hits as well for a soft-tossing control artist, but he just COMPETES, and the hits have dropped since he got promoted to AAA funnily enough. He's still tweaking his game as well.
- Paxton - I don't think he's ready yet, but he'll be in AAA next year at worst trying to prove that he is. If he can get deeper into games, maybe he really will be ready, so he and Hultzen might be on the same time-frame.
- Robles - he injured his arm and lost most of the season, and is still trying to find even his former semblance of control. But 95 MPH lefties with nasty offspeed/breaking pitches always have a shot of putting it together and making a run. More likely an option for the pen in 2012 than the rotation, but you never know.
Scott Patterson and Jarrett Grube are still around, and we could bring them to camp next year to compete for the #5 spot.
We have a LOT of arms to throw at those 2 theoretically open slots. If we get the right pieces back for the two guys that leave in trade, I'm willing to run with it and find out what some of the kids can do.
Just get the right return - in a perfect world.
~G
he was throwing 93/94 in the 7th inning. I would say his velocity is on the way back. Maybe he's on the same training regimen that Fister is on because they both have added velocity this year.
Last time I saw him he was still around 91. Yeah, Beavan at 94 deep into games is exactly the pitcher we were hoping to pry out of Texas.
Love to see that continue. After a rough start to the year Beavan's REALLY come on strong the last couple of months. He could be back as soon as next week if we do trade Bedard (or Vargas), and we'll get a lot more chances to see him.
~G
has been traded to the DBacks for cash. The link for the Fister info is:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/latest-on-tigers-search-for-pitchi...
Is this reasonable?
A- prospect at 3B. He's only 19, and he's a couple seasons away, (maybe too far for Z's job security,) but would both teams pull the trigger?
Not to mesh with our hitting needs, anyway.
If they’re not coughing up Brennan Boesch or Alex Avila (and they’re NOT) then what are they offering?
Casper Wells? Might as well run Carp out there and see what he's got, they're basically the same player line-wise. Carp's probably better - he doesn't stand on the plate and rely on taking a fastball to the ribs in order to get on base.
And we're not waiting 4 years for Castellano to become a big leaguer. If the Tigers are trading with us for Fister and a reliever, I'd have to think it'd involve a third team to get the majors-ready hitting we need.
Unless of course they're tired of Boesch or Avila giving them good production for pennies. If they are, send em our way for sure...
~G
Would Z deal them both?
As Doc sez, it does make for an interesting "auction cubed."
All the rumors say that Z's price for Fister is "very high" so it will be interesting to see what Detroit can offer or if a 3-way deal can be struck.
Uh...Don't trade Doogie.
I will be a broken record on this one.
From a saber standpoint ... James once observed that tall, lanky, (high strikeout) pitchers tend to be buffoons athletically and buffoons at the plate. Randy Johnson being the archetype.
Supertall pitchers tend to be good at nothing other than one sports motion, that being their pitching motions. And even that may need ten years of practice...
Interesting that Fister, being so tall and lanky, moves relatively gracefully. Huh.
Do the Mariners have a #6 SP who provides a stoploss? The answer's a resounding YES.
Blake Beavan may not be a plus starter, but his game is hyper repeatable, and one that takes advantage of Safeco.
Means a lot to know that Beavan's a solid fill for #5SP next season.
***
Would be curious to know what your thoughts are as to Paxton not being ready to compete in April 2012. Or you mean not ready in August 2011, after shedding *two* SP's? :- )
Nobody wants to trade Doogie, including Jack ... it says here that we can rest assured Doogie stays...
unless...
You're talking a Cliff Lee return and even more... which is also a very pleasant scenario...
Haven't looked at the Tiggers' org, but first question would be what they're sellin' that we're buyin'...
As to the Sox: Grizzly's note on the NYY-Bos rivalry echoes like a Buddhist tower bell... Erikkk jumping into the postseason series there, talk about a nuclear missle launched from Cuba...
Am I remembering wrong, or hasn't this happened a few times?
Didn't Rickey once do this? Wasn't Jarrod Washburn interested in so doing?
Erikkkkk out for a Reddick type :- ) then back to Seattle, a quiet town where he's treated exactly as he expects to be treated, on a reasonable $$$ deal... we keep the spect, don't miss Erikkk since we're not playing to win anyway, and grab him back for 2012...
Me likey...
Only drawback, Erikkk's workload late into the 2011season...
From the Mariners' standpoint... not 1-for-1 baby...
:- )
Castellanos certainly is a high-profile spect, and probably one of the better low-minors properties out there... if there's a deal with the Tiggers, he'd have to be on the short list as part of a package...
As G says, we can be pretty confident that Zduriencik is wanting ML-ready talent. This was even the consideration in the Washburn trade, vis-a-vis Luke French...
But good catch Rob, as far as Tiger commodities to keep an eye on ...
and they would get a reliever other than League. Rumor here.
Appears to be a big, multi-player deal like the Putz move, and we came out OK on that one, but who knows . . . Fister is a big piece to give up.
Only Detroit name that has surfaced is big LH starter Charlie Furbush, who has been pitching in relief in Detroit: minors stats, majors stats. Consistent 9+ K/9 and less than 3 BB/9 in the minors. Missed 2008 with TJ.
Looks like maybe Jack will trade two of his starters, but apparently get one back.
It's Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush and another player.
I don't get it.
Don't like it.
Furbush is interesting, but he has poor mechanics and isn't as proven as Fister. We basically traded a reliable young TOR starter for a high risk dice-roll at a TOR starter.
I'm not convinced that Casper Wells is anything. Pauley out for no good reason.
It looks like Fister didn't have a ton of trade value.. If that was the case, you should have kept him.
Furbush is LHP who Ks more than his stuff indicates and his gopherism should be aided in Safeco, but I don't get the unneccesary gamble. Fister was a sure thing.
It looks like Fister didn't have a ton of trade value.. If that was the case, you should have kept him.
Exactly my take. I'm bewildered and VERY disappointed. Clearly Jack thinks he knows something, so I hope he does.
Hes gambling on Furbush panning out.
Casper Wells scores really well defensively too, but I'm not sure how much I believe in the bat. Looks closer to a 4th OF/platoon type.
Word is that, in addition to Casper Wells and Charlie Furbush, we're getting AA 3B prospect Francisco Martinez, and a PTBNL who could be a "pretty significant name" according to Larry Stone.
Not knowing anything at all about these guys, at least we're getting more than those 2 initial pieces... right?
Wells k's 3 times for every walk. Show me a young, high-K, RH power hitter, and I'll show you a batter who will likely get destroyed by Safeco.
Seriously, you guys who know more than I... has there been a batter who succeeds at a high level with that kind of eye? I mean that's where Wells has been his whole life. Mark Reynolds is in that territory, but his career is borderline.
I guess in Wells you hope for Cameron or maybe even Buhner-type production, that would be his ceiling. Mark Reynolds with better hit ability.
My hope with Wells is he has enough power to clear the walls at Safeco, and a strong enough mental makeup to not feel beaten watching his home runs die on the warning track.
So...as I said in the other thread...it's a third base prospect who can't hit for power or draw walks, an outfielder who can't make contact, and a lefty who can't stay healthy or avoid the long ball. For Doug Fister.
Horrible...HORRRRIBLE deal, Jack.
See, when I said Casper Wells earlier, I was kidding. His value comes from having a little pop in his bat, which he will lose at the Safe, and from getting on base by getting HBP all the time - his eye sucks.
Carp is the same guy, only LH with a better eye. What are we seeing in Wells that makes him more than a 4th OF?
And Francisco Martinez, the guy who aspires to be Alex Liddi? Yes, he's been rushed through the Detroit system (AA at 20 despite not being given enough time to master even one level yet) and yes, he has tools...but really? He's not a good fielder either, so don't think he's some slick-glove wizard at 3B who just needs to hit a bit to contribute.
Furbush can really pitch...sometimes. He's got great potential as a starter if he can stop being hit so much, and is a reliever at worst. But Fister is far more reliable and neither is a fireballer. I would rather have Fister + Carp than Furbush + Wells, so Jack must believe Furbush is on the cusp of something wonderful.
Of course, so is Fister.
Don't get it. Maybe both we and Detroit will look back at this as a favorable swap of pitchers, like League and Morrow (possible).
Maybe Wells is a mensch who is about to become Jayson Werth (also possible).
Maybe somebody else will give us a hitter for Furbush but wouldn't for Fister, so we're getting our ducks in a row for that trade (less likely, but whatever).
Maybe the PTBNL is Castellanos (it's not).
But right now, I don't get it. So I guess I need to trust my talent evaluator who just gave up 4 years of Fister for his left-handed, less-reliable cousin, a 4th OF, a 3B prospect who is unlikely to pan our and a PTBNL.
Sorry, Carp - somebody's taking your spot again. Maybe we'll let you DH for a coupla days until Wily Mo comes up.
We'll see how it pans out, I guess.
~G
Hey, Fister is a wonderful pitcher. He's really good. And we get a pitcher not as good and Casper Wells, who gets Safecoed. And you already have Mike Carp clubbing the ball.
Has Z lost his mind?
I am depressed!
There must be a Part Two. Z has another trade, doesn't he? Pleeeeeeeeze?
Wells for somebody else? Right. That has to be part of it. Wells did show some ability to walk at AA, but hasn't shown much of that in the Majors. Well, none of that. He prorates out to 24 walks in a full season. Sheeeesh, that's worse than the 28 that Peguero shows.
Wells is not Carp. And, didn't we just have a Z/Wedge love affair with Peguero? Have we abandoned that one?
He did hit well in is call-up last year (100 or so PA's), but he's showing 4th OF skills right now. Do we need one of those?
Martinez has walked 80 times in 1300 MiLB PA's. He's young, but has not shown much ability to hit for average or power siince his first season in the Venezuelan Summer League. Is he Seager? Not likely.
Furbush has two MLB starts. For Fister?
And the only significant name that I can imagine the Tigers giving up later is Victor Martinez, after the season.
Yuck!
This whole thing makes me sick to my stomach. If Fister's value were low, then KEEP him! Or trade in the offseason. I just don't get it, unless the PTBNL is Superman.
Had never heard of any these guys until this morning.
Furbush looks like Vargas-plus-Ks and that's a good fit for Safeco. Obviously, they thought the Fister-Furbush delta (that sounds oddly scientific, doesn't it?) might be small and that the chance to add bats made the trade worth it. Z's comment also indicated that Beavan's performance made them willing to trade Fister.
Wells looks like a solid upgrade over Halman and Peguero (talk about not walking a lot). K rates don't look too scary to me for a guy with decent power. I'd think he's more likely to take ABs from Guti (and Halman, obviously) than from Carp. Cust is gone and AK fading and/or gone -- Carp gets their DH time and will share LF with Wells.
I don't foresee Wily Mo with the big club after the Wells acquisition, but I could be wrong.
Wells may get the most ink/pixels due his MLB splash last year, but he doesn't necessarily seem like the key to the deal to me.
Martinez seems like maybe the one Z views as the main guy. The Tigers obviously loved the tools to have run him all the way up to AA at 20 without big numbers to back it up. The Z-crew must think he's got a good chance to bust out. Baseball America had Martinez as the #4 guy in the Tigers' org.
Jon Sickles has an analysis up. Preseason he had these guys 10, 11 and 17, but Furbush (who was 17) would have moved up to a C+ and thus in the same range as the other two.
I think the Z-crew likes Furbush better than that (in Safeco) and ranks Martinez more like BA (tools) than the other ratings.
Of course, the PTBNL will be a factor, too.
It does seem to be a riskier trade than it ought to have been, given Fister's level of peformance and salary status. Z was really in need of offense, obviously, and had been stating how hard it was to get teams to give up bats.
Shannon Drayer says:
Source says PTBNL in the #Mariners #Tigers trade is indeed one Detroit's top 3 picks from 2010 draft. Can't be traded until signed for 1 yr
Safe to say not Castellanos, so that would be:
Chance Ruffin RHP
Drew Smyly LHP
Which would be Sickles' #7 and #9. So that's 4 guys who would be in Sickles' top 12-ish (since he says he'd move Furbush up to C+).
Changes the complexion quite a bit there. Obviously, Wells is just a role player in this thing.
If the PTBNL is actually a top draft pick and we have to wait to get them til after early August...either of those two would add something to the depth chart.
I still don't like this deal because now we're going to be forced to justify the Fister trade by giving playing time to Casper blinkin' Wells...who sucks.
Not thrilled with this deal but not too bummed..
I think we ended up with:
1) A 2 WAR corner outfielder who is cheap.
2) An exciting prospect in Francisco Martinez
3) Pretty sure we're getting Drew Smyly based on the rumors going around. That's a Jason Vargas type lefthander. Maybe with a little more upside.
4) Above average lefty specialist (don't believe in the delivery of Furbush, not gonna be a starter IMO)
It isn't a great return, but if Martinez ends up maximizing some of those tools, we could easily end up on the better end of this deal.
Going forward I stick Wells out in LF and let him get everyday at-bats. I platoon Carp and Pena at DH. I think that DH platoon could be cheap and solid for the next couple yrs. We can also get Carp some extra ABs, by letting Wells play some CF, and sticking Carp in LF
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Thanks mucho!
Jeff