Sorry Doc,
But I just cannot let this one go...you say that tipping points are accepted in climatology...I suppose one could argue that the changed in solar insolation caused by things like the Milankovic cycle shouldn't casue huge swings in global temperature and ice cover so there is a tipping point there...but in the current climate debate, there is not general consensus that the tipping point theory holds water (that we are in fact headed toward a point where it will get too warm and pass a point of no return). This is important because if you believe in tipping points...you believe in drastic government actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions and doomsday scenarios are legitimate threats to be used in the political gamesmanship. If you don't...you take a more measured view of the appropriate response to global warming. :)
As to the rest of your point...I do think that certain Mariners have given up offensively...especially Franklin Gutierrez, Chone Figgins, and Justin Smoak (for now). You have proven absolutely correct in suggesting that Guti would die at the Safe...but I think he also died because he was a marginal AL player two years ago who could hit at THAT level, but as pitching improves, his hitting gets worse a lot moreso than average...he was living on the edge...and now he's off the cliff.
The bottom line, I think, is that the Mariners need to avoid guys who might be 3 WAR players in 2007 or even 2009 if that WAR is based on speed, defense and just enough offense and focus on BIG TOOL hitters. Guys who have legitimately unique hitting skills. Monster power crossed with good pitch recognition. Or Tremendous batting eye and line drive stroke...that sort of thing.
EA sez,
One thought that has been sticking out in my brain lately is how one of the media pundits talked about the run of good pitching that's been around the last year and a half and how it could be that the cycle of baseball is turning back towards pitching. It seems like half the guys coming out of the bullpen these days are throwing 95+ and it seems like starting pitchers that throw 95+ seem to be cropping up all over the place too. Is this a result of improved strength training regimens? ...
Doc has made the point that hitters are really the defense and the pitcher is on offense attacking the zone. Has modern conditioning gotten pitching to the point where it is on the verge of overpowering human reflexes? How would this affect decisions on how to build a roster? Or is watching the M's feeble attempts to score runs biasing me towards visions of a new deadball era?
I took a quick spin through the F/X velocities the last few years, and it seems fastball velocity is up. By a lot.
As recently as 2005, the #15-16 velocity staffs in baseball (Rays and Rangers) had staffwide fastball averages of 89.9.
But in 2008 it was up to 90.8, in 2009 the median team Cincinnati was 91.0, and last year the median staff (again Cincinnati!) was up to 91.3 mph. On average.
This year, not even having gone through the summer yet, the median teams (Jays, Royals) are fully 91.5 mph. On average.
***
Of course, it's not that a 91.5 fastball is impossible to hit, or that an 89.9 fastball is easy to hit. It is that these numbers reflect a massive, and industrywide, surge forward in the quality of pitching.
That 91.5 vs. 89.9 difference, over the last six years, is at least equal to the gains made by The New Doug Fister. How much better is Fister now, than he used to be? That's how much MLB pitching seems to have improved, across 300-350 pitchers.
If you're lighting up the gun at 90-94 now, rather than at 88-92, how much better is your slider? ... and how much easier is it to get batters "in between" on your changeup, since they're more passive against your fastball?
I'd have thought 91.5 vs 89.9 was the kind of difference that separated MLB from AA, or even A+, minor league baseball. Here it is, separating MLB 2011 from MLB 2005.
***
Personally, I've had the queasy feeling all year that --- > the Mariners seem to be facing All-Star starters on a nightly basis. Maybe, this being the AL West, they actually are. But it just seems like it's constantly Alexi Ogando and then Derek Holland is throwing 95 lefty, and now it's Haren and Weaver and ... the M's have played almost 100 games and it seems like 80 of those have been against staff aces.
Then after an Alexi Ogando blows them away, they face the microphones, going, we just have to get better...
I believe that there are a lot more star-quality SP's right now than there were a few years ago. As a completely separate issue, steroids are now apparently well under control.
.
=== Tipping Point, Dept.===
As a sociological phenomenon, this was first described in the real estate market: suburban whites "tolerated" a certain number of minority households in their area, but at a fairly predictable point, "too many" minority households caused "white flight" and the neighborhood would then morph quickly.
Since then, "tipping points" have been recognized in physics, in climatology, etc. The concept is that at a certain high-leverage moment, a small change can produce huge results.
The mainstream media, seems to have hit a tipping point a few years ago. The New York Times moved suddenly from profitable to unprofitable. I think that you could trace this mainly to a few puzzlingly-minor developments.
And what is the Tipping Point on Mariner ticket prices? On whether a ballclub's chest collapses and it throws in its pennant cards, losing 11 games in a row and preferring not to play "challenge" games any more? As soon as there's no pressure left, the Mariners will start hitting again. B'lee DAT.
***
What if the intersection of (1) improved pitching and (2) Safeco Field's conditions have converged to create a tipping point that unbalances the game too much toward the pitchers?
Perhaps Safeco Field played to feasible conditions as long as offense was, generally, high? But that once you bring a refrigerated baseball into it, or a string of Alexi Ogandos, or whatever, you cross a Tipping Point and batters become disheartened?
***
The Mariners played a couple of years in the Kingdome, and then they simply created a high wall in right field. They addressed the unfair conditions. I believe Chuck Armstrong was there for that; check me.
A few years later, Cindy and I came in one day and they had also simply moved home plate 10' away from left field.
You could move home plate in Safeco out by 6-8 feet, and it could make a big difference -- you might scuffle back onto the right side of The Tipping Point, and create a fair battle between hitters and pitchers.
***
Failing that, you better warp your lineup wayyyyyy over into the Raul Ibanez stylin' section of the mall.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
That section of the mall is too small. Too little selection. Even if those guys have the necessary style, I'm not convinced they look the game the way do. I might have Ibanez's style, but as well as it fits Safeco, it would still fit those other parks too. Seattle wouldn't top my list even if I was a hitter in that mold.
Especially now that it's rapidly developing a reputation as a park that has a big hand in destroying hitters....which, by the way, hurts their earning power.
As great as the "greatest park in baseball" is, it has created a huge problem for the Mariners, IMO. I think I would go to your post and highlight, capitalize, bold and italicize and bigger font, etc. the section about "creating a fair environment".
You can't operate in a scenario where you can't bring in talent just because it doesn't fit your park. The fact of the matter is your dealing with human beings. They have egos. They want to win, but they also want a legacy. If I'm Ackley's agent, I say all the right things to the press while preparing him to bolt from Seattle at the earliest opportunity. Why? Because I doubt he grew up dreaming about this game playing in an environment where he is penalized because of the park he plays in. And although on his own, he may not suffer the effect of the park specifically as much, my feel is that his numbers will suffer because of the players around him. And the more the players around him are penalized by the park, the more he is.
Unless you can get four or five more of him, this "greatest park in baseball" is killing your chances. Why in the world would a hitter of Fielder's caliber ever want to come to Seattle? He may want to win and the Mariners may want to win, but if they don't, it's not a small hit to his legacy. Why not just go to Texas or Anaheim, where the stadiums are more fair AND you can win. We may discredit the idea, but if Fielder has a chance to hit 480 bombs or 600, the difference matters.
It's past the time to change the park. Well past.
It seems that comments in the past from the M's have been quite dogmatic about this issue, and in my opinion at least it *has* to change. Free agent hitters will not (are not) inclined to come here, all things being equal; soon pitchers will be in the same boat, because they can run a 1.29 ERA and still not put up the "W's" they crave (as humans, and humans with an ego, as noted).
Look at the Mariners since Safeco opened, and your are seeing a steady erosion of hitting, and it's not all because the M's are completely futile on that side of the ball. Look at the Padres in the NL, operating under pretty similar conditions - everything has to break exactly right in order for them to compete with the way their park is set up...same with the M's. There's a razor thin margin for error on the fielding side of the ball, and eventually the 1 run games and the inability to hit, and the frustration catches up and results in...11 game losing streaks.
Bleah. If the whole league is starting to put up better pitchers in general, our park-effect that favours pitchers is going to push our advantage in that area out of the realm of being an advantage. If you're going to run up against a guy who can put up a 3.00 ERA (to use that measure as a crude example) in Arlington, how much better is that same guy going to seem in the Safe when he's facing our hitters who have been demoralized by the environment long before he gets here?
I think the park can be an advantage and its just been terrible roster construction in recent years (and a Figgins implosion)
It also seems as if Z is bringing in pieces that can succeed in the park. Ackley, Pineda, Smoak, Hultzen, Vargas, Seager, Ryan are all good fits for the park with their swings. These guys, along with Felix, are the core.
They've got a ton of holes, but its bad timing to start building the park away from your advantage. You'd likely see the hitting get slightly better and the pitching a lot worse.
I think Z needs to target hitters through trade primarilly. Pineda for example could likely bring back a young MLB proven bat that fits the park. I wish we would have talked to the Yankees about Felix pre-season, but thats no longer an option at this point.
So...basically...you wish we'd had zero fun at all this year...failed to find the face of the franchise...missed out on the peak years of a slam dunk hall of fame Clemens-caliber ace...lost our pride, our identity and our soul...to get some nice prospects from the Yankees.
O.
K.
I agree that the pitching has gotten better. However, not only have we seen an increase in velocity, but the number of pitchers using a changeup has gone up in a big way.
I think that along with faster fastballs, the incorporation of the changeup by so many pitchers has led to a decrease in offense league wide. In the past, pitchers always had a curve or a slider. Not many were using the changeup. Now, almost every good pitcher has one, and those that don't are working on one.
Also, I have to agree with Taro. Can you name a way we could fill 6 holes on this team by trading one player? I can.
Trade Felix for 4 top notch prospects and use the $19 million he's due the next 3 years to sign 2 more free agents. 6 holes filled by trading one guy. You can trade Pineda, but you may be able to fill 2 holes with the return.
I suggested on a message board that one scenario trading Felix could net you this:
Jesus Montero - DH, Gary Sanchez - C, Dellin Betances - SP, Slade Heathcott - CF
Then, with that $19 million you sign 2 guys, in my example I used Erik Bedard and Carlos Beltran for the next 3 years.
Insert whatever names you want, but adding 6 quality major league players to slot alongside Ackley/Smoak/Pineda without increasing your payroll one cent is the type of move this team is going to have to make at some point if it really wants to build a contender.
Losing Felix would hurt, but we have Pineda/Vargas/Fister/Hultzen/Paxton/Beavan/Walker already in the system (once Hultzen signs), and then adding a top pitching prospect like Betances in the trade?! We're not lacking on pitching, we would survive without Felix. We won't survive without an absolute game changer trade to add some offense.
I think the Yankees would have gone nuts in talent. Gardner+Montero+Betances+Sanchez.
Granted Montero is starting to look like a bust and Sanchez could be anything, but the rest of the deal would have still made a killing for the Ms. Gardner alone make you win that deal.
Its a moot point though. The Yanks no longer have as desperate a need and Felix won't have the same kind of trade value as he did pre-season. Now, I feel hes more valuable as an M.