Seattle Sports Insider

Doug Fister Is a WAR/$ Tyrannosaurus Rex (Padres 1 ...)

Posted by

7/2/11

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=== Doug Fister's FX ===

If you're a right hand hitter, the dotted circles on this chart are there to indicate what the break on a normal ML pitch looks like to you. (A pitch with no spin, no air resistance, thrown in a vacuum, or whatever, would hit exactly at the intersection of the X and Y axes.)

The colored starbursts indicate where Doug Fister's pitches were breaking, on Saturday.

The F/X system was probably mis-reading the "four-seam" fastballs, but forget about that. The point is the "marginal" break that Fister gets on his FB and changeup. The RH batter reads two-seamer, swings at the aqua circle, and the ball bores in wayyyyy towards his back foot. If you watched the game, you saw a bunch of weak chops into the San Diego camera well.

Fister's curve was "spiking" into the dirt, breaking so much that he couldn't throw it for a strike. Long live weight training, I guess.

=== Release Point ===

In the chart below, the sky-blue starburst indicates a normal RHP's release point. Fister's is somewhat higher ... and much to the side, toward third base.

VALUE Tyrannosaurus Rex.

***

Doug Fister, in the first half, earned $11.7M in value for the Mariners, and he was paid $218,250.

Whoever trades for Fister will get two-three months' of free TOR performance this year, and four more years of club-controls performance out of him.

Even if Fister dropped back to the $12M yearly performance that he brought in 2010, a team is looking at a full $50-70M worth of performance for a total of about $15-20M in salary.

(If Fister pitches like he is in 2011, his new team is going to receive $100,000,000 worth of performance from him. And it will be well aware of this fact. Everybody has a Tom Tango or Voros McCracken on staff these days.)

What happened to this kind of argument? In terms of net value, Doug Fister is worth much, much more than (say) Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Matt Kemp, or Andre Ethier, all free agents after 2012.

The topical argument for trading Michael Pineda ... that is a separate discussion. But if you're going to convert pitching value into hitting value, why not cash in $40-$70M of net value on Doug Fister to do it?

And keep Felix and Pineda together.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

On the trade front

If dealing one of your aces becomes a serious option ... why wouldn't you deal Felix before you traded Michael Pineda?
With the cost savings, you could purchase Prince Fielder... hey, you'd be most of the way toward signing Albert Pujols.
Which would you rather have: Michael Pineda and Prince Fielder, or Felix by himself? Any roto champ knows the answer to that one.
***
But, of course, people wouldn't do that, because they understand Felix' value on a visceral level. Soon they'll understand Pineda's on the same level. :- )

Buy him out

I would buy out Fister's arb years now and tack on his first year of FA. And trade Bedard. A relatively cheap, bona fide innings eating #3 (with upside) will be more valuable to the M's over the next four years than the risky and expensive Bedard.

I wouldn't trade Fister. With

I wouldn't trade Fister. With the added velocity, hes now a TOR starter. Hes probably underrated on the market too, and hes a guy you're confident can stay healthy.
I'd want to hand a long-term deal before he figures out how good he is.

Durability for me, also Felix

Durability for me, also Felix is probably worth a lot less than Pineda now in the market. Only a few teams can trade for Felix, and with NY no longer needing SP there probably isn't a deal out there that makes sense.

All those 5-for-1's dried up, eh :- )

Last time the Mariners DIDN'T offer Felix to the market, they were deluged with "any five players" calls.
***
On an intuitive level, Felix "feels" injury-proof to us as M's fans ... since the forearm injury turned out to be nothing.
How do you quantify, though, the idea that Felix is not going to get hurt, and other pitchers are...

As a consolation for the 3-10 record maybe :- )

Ya, it's a funny thing... if there's an argument for dealing Bedard, Felix, or Pineda, it is probably Doug Fister.
But as argued in the column, it's possible that Doug Fister has more trade value than any of them. And Bedard - Felix - Pineda are guys you could win a WS or two with...
There are options all around, naturally. I'd like to see how your variation works out, Grizz. If Bedard is back and throwing good 3 starts from now, maybe a Mesoraco type deal is out there...

LOL - I'd definitely buy low

If he is somehow unaware that he's throwing lockdowns every time out ... or unaware that he has serious upside FROM HERE...
I definitely would buy low. :- )
I think that Doug Fister can get MUCH better than he is right now. His slider, on June 2, was low in the zone and it went from "by far his worst pitch" to "his best pitch." I don't think Fister has figured out his Orel Hershiser game, will agree there.

Vargas was named a non-All-Star All-Starwas

by Buster Posey:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6732605
Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners. He doesn't possess the stuff of Felix Hernandez orMichael Pineda, but he has become a reliable part of the Mariners' rotation, and in shutting out the Padres on Friday night, Vargas lowered his ERA to 3.57. In his past six starts, he's thrown three complete games and hasn't thrown fewer than six innings in any outing.

And he's just our 4th-best starter, 5th with a healthy Erik Bedard. He's not a free agent for 3 more years, as well. Felix is the staff ace and getting paid like it starting next year, Pineda is the #2 being paid basically nothing, Erik is our #3 while being a FA after the season, Fister is our #4 with 5 years of club control left (IIRC) and Vargas is our #5 with 3 more years of club control. Yowtch.
By FIP:
Felix: 2.82 (5th in the AL)
Pineda: 3.08 (tied for 8th)
Fister: 3.08 (tied for 8th)
Erikkk: 3.50 (19th)
Vargas: 3.58 (21st)
So we've basically got 5 of the AL's top 20 starters pitching for us. Last year's AA starter of the year (Beavan) is in AAA now and finally has his head on straight (4:1 K: BB ratio, 3ish ERA, 7.5 K/9 last month...basically Fister-ish). We'll see him in a day or two for pitching for Erik.
We had 5 pitchers in the AA All-Star game, most in the Fister/Vargas mold - led by Andy Carraway, but Erasmo is doing well too. Big thank you to Lance Painter for helping those guys without wicked heat still carve up lineups.
Hultzen will be joining our farm system in about 6 weeks. Paxton just got bumped up to AA and will start there in a couple of days. Gillheeney may not be far behind as he's been laser-sharp in the Cal League with just the HR bug biting him - the same bug that bit Carraway last year and has disappeared this year in more spacious confines.
Whatcha wanna do? We aren't gonna have a full-court press for rotation spots til 2013, probably. Do you trade Vargas a year early rather than a year late? He's not a FA til after the 2014 season, while Fister has 2 more years of club control than THAT. If one of em gets injured their value drops to zero.
Meanwhile, none of the up-and-comers are fireballing whiz-kids, Paxton and Walker aside. Carraway and Beavan are in no one's top-100 prospect list, just as Fister and Vargas weren't, so they won't bring you huge returns until they're doing what Fister and Vargas are doing.
So if you can't get what you need just in free agency, then your most attractive trade possibilities are to cash in arms. Either you spend the Paxtons and Walkers of the system as headliners...or you use one of your club-controlled guys who are putting a hurting on the major leagues. Pineda is the most valuable commodity in the organization, but I'm assuming he's untouchable.
Fister is pitching with him stride for stride and Vargas is a complete game warrior with limited downside.
How valuable are they, and when do you decide to cash them in? The offense is on pace to score, what, 50 more runs than last year? We all realize that pro-rated we're STILL 50 runs worse than the next-worst AL offense was last year, right? It's nice of Oakland and Minny to hang out in our neighborhood for the block party this year, but we're 70 runs below league average at the HALF-WAY point so far. Without Greg Halman of all people we get no-hit last night. Smoak is starting to crack under the pressure of knowing he has to drive in every run - and so hasn't driven in a run in 2 weeks.
Adding an Alex Gordon to this team makes everything easier. Do you give up a WAR T-Rex to make that happen?
I don't see how we can avoid it, honestly. Fister and Vargas have been amazing, and I love them. And without giving one of them up I'm not sure how we get this all turned around quickly enough for the guys that are left.
Not without emptying out some serious farm pieces, anyway. So I guess it's take your pick: keep both of Vargas and Fister or keep Paxton and Walker and Seager and some others.
Neither option is perfect, but we can't run an offense like this any more. If I could trade Fister or (preferrably) Vargas for a young crusher in LF and then sign Prince Fielder, I would do it.
How much better does this offense look with Ackley/Fielder/Smoak/Ethier (or Gordon or Kemp or whomever) at its core, with Halman splitting time in CF, Seager/Kennedy at 3rd and Olivo behind the plate?
Could we win a couple of these phenomenal pitching performances then?
If you get an offense potentially 5 or 6 deep instead of 1 or 2, then the 4 remaining starters might have a shot to win some ballgames. And maybe the new #5 could too.
I would investigate that option with all available alacrity.
~G

Fister's trade value is

Fister's trade value is probably signficantly below Pineda's, and hes honestly a much better bet to stay healthy over the next several years.
If you're going to trade from strengh I think it has to be from the volatile Bedard/Pineda pair. Both Fister and Vargas can be locked up cheap long-term and are safer bets to retain value than those two. They also probably don't have the trade value those two have.
Bedard in particular really needs to get his trade value up quickly once he comes off the DL.. I'm hoping the injuries don't scare teams off..

Beaven

Things get even easier for Z if Beaven looks credible today. If Beaven acquits himself well as our 6th starter...then you DEFINITELY have to trade one of our current five. Because behind Beaven, you've got Paxton and Hultzen who'll be here in 2012. Holy cow what a lovely problem to have.

Agreed

Well said G.
If the M's are going to be good in 2012-2015, starting pitching will have to be the driving force based on who is now in the majors and the best talents we have in the minors. I plan for success and presume that I have a surplus in starters. The key to a starter surplus, is that I can be flexible about who I trade, versus who I keep. I am disinclined to trade Felix, despite his salary, because he's the teams identity. But if Boston blows me away with what they offer AND it clears $18M off next years payroll, I definitely consider it.
If someone wants to bet on Erik Bedard's ability to win games in the World Series, I trade him. But if I get a better offer from someone for Doug Fister that places a premium on cost control and health, I make that trade. Maybe the Dodgers give me Kemp and Ethier for Pineda and Halman to control costs. I make that trade without a second thought.
The fact is that the M's have put the worst offensive team on the field for two years running and it has not be a product of bad luck or injuries. They just flat out suck. Look for the M's to have an average offense this year was going to require most of the following to work out: Olivo to not get killed by Safeco (+), Justin Smoak to demonstrate the scouts were right (+), Dustin Ackley to prove the scouts were right (+), Jack Cust to not be a BABIP artifact (-), Adam Kennedy to surprise (+), Gutierrez to bounce back (-), Ichiro to continue proving he was the model of consistent excellence (-), Michael Saunders to prove the scouts were right (-), Brendan Ryan to demonstrate his glove warranted to carrying a 75 OPS+ (+), Chone Figgins to bounce back (-), and Milton Bradley to bounce back (-). I count five pluses and six minuses. Maybe that is a little worse than we could have hoped for, but I would say that a lot of those bets were long shots.
My point in short form is that this offense was bad by design and will remain so without swapping some starters for some position players. My point is not that doing so will work with perfect fidelity, merely that I think it is much more likely to work than sitting on our hands hoping that we get three out of Carp, Saunders, Peguero, Halman, Gutierrez, Seager, Kennedy, and Figgins to warrant 400 at-bats in 2012 and 2013. I'd rather swap out one of our starters and hope that one of Hultzen, Bleavan, and Paxton warrant 150 IP by 2013. You could reasonably argue that all three of them are better bets than all of the position players I just listed.

G-Money's Offense Philosophy

I think it was G, who commented re: Anthony Rendon, that bats impact bats are going to be the rare commondity in this post-steroid era.
Watching Atlanta's young starters, and seeing Beavan come out of the gate carving up the Padres, you'd be hard pressed to disagree. Also seeing the impact a talented bat like Ackley can have against other team's aces...
So yeah, I agree with others here, that the time is coming soon when the M's should be converting Arms to Bats - or at least one arm in to a bat or two. As to who that should be, hoo boy that is tough. As a soft-tossing lefty with one of the best changeups in the game, it would be difficult to give up Vargas - his injury risk is super low. And with Fister, they could be your Maddux-Glavine type combo going forward. Well maybe a notch below, but similar in terms of results and durability.
Felix makes the most sense to move from a financial stadpoint, but he's an all-timer and the heart of the franchise now. Put it this way though, if this were the Oakland A's, Felix would be the one going, no question.
I guess I'd have to agree that the chip to move would be Pineda. Biggest return on the market; biggest risk of injury. Still, if I'm Z, I wait until the offseason, assuming the M's are still in it past the deadline. And I only pull the trigger for a big time young bat.
Bedard on the other hand, I think is super valuable to the M's, in part because of his injury history. How many other top-10 pitchers are actually affordable? If you have depth in the system like the M's do, then Bedard on the DL is no big deal. In a way he brings a combination of outstanding results, low cost, and roster fungibility.

Maybe...

While I agree that Fister and Vargas look better from a health perspective, they also have the least to lose. If Fister starts struggling with elbow or shoulder fatigue, what happens when he loses his razor sharp command?
For me, the only M's pitcher that isn't a big risk going forward in Felix: demonstrated good health to date, takes his profession seriously, could loose A LOT in terms of stuff and still be well above league average. I mine where do you put the over-under for Felix's WAR before retirement? 50?
While I think the cost of a player is an important factor in value, GMs do not trade Hall of Fame talents for cost reasons very often (Miguel Cabrera comes to mind). The Gary Sheffield's and Richie Allen's of the world do get traded on occasion, though that is because they are a pain in the sitter, but for cost reasons.

That's a big check

So...Beavan can pitch for this team...why exactly do we need to hold onto Bedard? Or Vargas?
I don't want to move Pineda even though I do understand the logical reasons for doing so...maybe he's the one who'll burn out and you can get a gigantic haul for him..I get that. But if we can get something good for Bedard and run Beavan in his rotation spot now...then we can trade Vargas next season just as Paxton or Hultzen is pitching his way onto the ballclub and then we can trade Pineda when he gets a little closer to his arb years as Hultzen or Paxton jumps in there.
Point is...with our depth, there is ZERO excuse for ever...EVER...losing one of our great starters to free agency for no gain. THey should all bring back juicy bats in trade.

It's not surprising that Fister is underrated

Look at Dan Haren, doesn't Fister kind of remind you him, tall, mediocre velocity fastball, great command, good GB%, but Haren has managed 7+ K/9 for his career, often getting into the 8s. He got traded for Joe Saunders and bullpen help. But since you're talking about upside, I think Haren is a good place to look.

That rotation

And 1 starter made it, while I'm sure Dr. D will be peaved that our #2 was League of all people. It's a bit frustrating that Philadelphia got 3, San Francisco got 3, and nobody is even noting that the Mariners rotation got snubbed, maybe we can send Doug (no way they'll let Pineda pitch there this year) since Felix isn't going to be able to pitch.

Generally though,

The reason to wait to trade until the offseason is to expand your market, but so many teams are close (17 are within 4 games of the division lead) the bidding war could be pretty awesome, not to mention, Michael Pineda could be the beginning and end of a discussion for someone from the floundering teams like the Dodgers. Not to go down the fantasy path too hard, but Pineda for Kemp would probably be almost automatic for the Dodgers considering the awful situation they're in, it lets them theoretically improve the franchise while letting go of a player due for a huge raise next season (not to mention due another 3 or 4 million this year).

A disorienting embarrassment of riches

I've been a Mariners fan ever since I spent two years in Seattle since the mid 90's. I have to say that I find all this talk about dealing from the strength in our pitching disorienting. I can not recall a time when the Mariners had such an embarrassment of riches on the mound.
Beavan's performance last night was reassuring, and may just be the latest good news in support of a trade now scenario.
My preference would be to trade Vargas, and to trade for an outfielder under team control for at least a few years.

Beavan, Fister, Bedard

Keep Fister. Hold on to him and kick and scream about it.
He's a horse. He's a #1 on a bunch of teams and he's cheap for a long time.
Keep him. Trade Bedard if you have to and go with Beavan or Pauley or Wright.
But don't trade Fister.
Being pitching rich is different than being OF rich or SS rich.
Build around your 5 year cheap and wicked staff.
I'm not quitting on this year.....but I'm not trading long term cheap big talent for some 3B.
Stay the (pitching) course. Trust in Carp this year. Trust in Halman this year. Trust in Seager, perhaps. but don't trade fister.

From a chess standpoint

It's heresy to acquire resources and then fail to exploit them...
If a chess grandmaster were in Zduriencik's shoes, he'd be in a cold sweat at the prospect of Bedard leaving as a free agent...
Fortunately, Zduriencik's track record is indeed that of exploiting resources. Remember that his trade of Washburn came as something of a body blow to the ballclub that Washburn left. But Z wasn't going to lose him for nothing.

Negotiating with Erikkkkk on the 15-day DL ?

Usually they don't want to talk contracts with players mid-season, unless forced (though Ichiro's deal was concluded midseason)...
I fancy that with Erikkk on the DL, it's the perfect opportunity to nail down whether he's going to be here in the future...
At least if I were in Z's shoes, I'd be trying to clarify that, and if Erikkkk were loath to sign for $8M per or so, then this little piggy ran off to market...

Haren kind of an interesting comp

Definitely a guy who works off razor-sharp command of several pitches...
I consider him a guy who features the cut fastball, the one Fister is trying to develop, which puts Haren in a different basket, the Halladay basket...
But, set aside the cutter issue, you can see lotsa similarities. Interesting suggestion.

Maybe since Felix will be ineligible

I guess times have changed. Back when I was a kid, Michael Pineda was just the kind of guy they loved to have in the All-Star game. Great story, great show.
Hey, in the 1980's they mighta started Pineda.

#1 for a buncha teams

He certainly is better than any starter on a number of teams...
Cheers up tired ol' Dr. D to see the SSI/MC community get behind Doogie as solidly as they have... he is such a cool story and such a cool ballplayer, but isn't the kind of guy to shed his label easily...

It might be unprecedented

For a team to trade a 25-year-old 300-game winner -- for the reason that -- it thought it could improve itself that way.
Still, the fact is, Felix returns you a superstar bat immediately (in terms of salary replacement) and he returns you the five young players you get in trade.
Objectively speaking, even I think the WAR/$ return is overwhelming. Not to say I'd deal him.
***
I mean, suppose you could get a Prince Fielder, plus four Smoaks and Ackleys?
But it never happens. :shrug: Just noodling.

In a vacuum it might seem dangerous to presume SP depth

A lot of other teams have found that SP depth can evaporate quickly.
But THIS team in THIS park can afford to bet on development. Blake Beavan is the latest example. It's just too easy for a pitcher to succeed in Safeco. And there are just too many near-ready arms, Hultzen, Paxton, etc.

I plan for success and presume that I have a surplus in starters. The key to a starter surplus, is that I can be flexible about who I trade, versus who I keep.

Great paradigm, that.
Jack's a trader, and he's got options here, so we're expecting a lot from him...

Believe that we can't recall it

Because it's never existed, never anywhere near existed...
Not only do you have the five stoppers, you apparently now have a solid 6, and you have a legitimate three-four SP's on the farm who threaten to make top-100 lists... just sick...
Your preference to trade Vargas is, it seems, Geoff Baker's also. On Live!, he's talked about Fister being a clear playoff choice over Vargas.
Also, isn't Vargas a year closer to FA than Fister?

Problem being

The problem with extending Bedard is the 2012 payroll. We can wish for and project a big increase in payroll all we want but the likelihood of a payroll increase next year is scant. There is $$ coming off the books but a lot of the current players - starting with Felix - are in line for raises next year. The club is going to have what - $12-$14 million to spend in FA? Signing Bedard for $8-$10 million of that means hitting the scrap heap or betting on trades for offense again.

Depends on the (Monty) haul

If somebody's willing to give me what's behind curtain #2 AND curtain #3 to get Fister and his 120 OPS+ and control through 2016, I have to think about it. He's the sweet spot between Pineda (fabulous performance, yet-to-be-demonstrated health and stamina, lots of club control) and Vargas (health and stamina, pitches late into games but hits FA sooner and not as consistently dominant even as Fister).
Vargas is also a lefty while Felix, Pineda, Fister and Beavan are all righties, and Bedard will (likely) be on the FA market soon. Paxton and Hultzen are lefties so we wouldn't necessarily have an entire rotation of righties for long, but Jack likes lefties in Safeco.
I love Fister. I'm so very happy to see him succeeding, and the dude is everything you'd want out of a guy with his skillset. Such a bulldog.
Now, the As had this happen with Aaron Harang several years ago, when he'd been interesting but not nearly what Fister has been so far this year. They had a surplus of arms, though, and dealt him for the big bat they needed...
Jose Guillen.
THAT'S what I don't want to do. No overpriced 3-month vet rentals for 6 years of a demonstrated talent.
But you aren't gonna get Moustakas for Doug Fister, even if Doug is in line for 15-20 WAR over the next 6 years. Bats are inherently more reliable than arms. You'd give up 6 years of Fister for around 3 of a major league bat, at least in my opinion.
If it was 3 months ago we might have had Alex Gordon, but he's gonna be hard to pry out of the Royals now.
Still, there are some options.
This is not the sort of trade that comes up a lot. Most teams do not have a surplus of cheap, Major-league-conquering pitching that they can afford to deal, so the parameters of putting a Fister on the market aren't really clear. I would think a healthy Bedard would be the normal trade option, followed by Vargas, then Fister because his value is so hard to peg. You'd THINK he'd be one of the most valuable trade pieces in the sport, but by simply going on the market his value gets diminished. After all, if he were 20 WAR just sitting there for a bargain price, why would we be trading him? So he must not be what he looks like.
Now, the interesting option to me is trading Bedard and League, and then sticking Vargas in the pen to close, but with Jason's lack of experience there and no overpowering weapons, I don't think we'd go that route. If a guy can go 9 innings no problem then you don't usually ask him to close.
But it would be selling high on League as an All-Star with a year left on his contract, and would help fix our too-many-starters issue.
As would moving Paxton to the pen a la Papelbon. We DO have options that don't involve trading our current starters.
I just think for a major-league-producing bat we're gonna need to trade either our young guns (Paxton or Walker as the headliner plus a couple of pieces, minimum) or a current rotation member.
We can't keep everyone, and by passing on Rendon for another arm, we created more of a logjam rather than alleviating the issue. That call plus our lack of other plus bats coming up any time soon kinda forces our hand.
A trade IS coming. It's just a matter of who stays, and who goes.
~G

Bedard and League = ?

Interesting G, interesting.

What would a Bedard and League bundle be worth to a contender?
For the right prospect...I'ld do that in a hurry.
Putz is the reliever template of the modern era. We know what happened there.
Unless he throws for the Yankeesa and bamboozles batters with the cutter, I'm am, by nature, untrusting of closers.
interesting bundle.....

Harang for Guillen :shudder:

That's why Dr. D's compass principle is, "make sure you're happy with what you get back," even pay a little more for it, and you'll never regret the deal.
Rather than buy a house you're not quite happy with, get the one you're thrilled about, even if you have to stretch your budget.
Which is why I'd NEVER have regretted the Erik Bedard trade. The intent was noble, a bona fide SP Dominator, and there are no guarantees in life. Was much happier to see Jones + ?? for Erik Bedard than, say, Jones for a Joe Blanton and scraps.
***
This one's a Golden Law. Never give up the best player in a deal. If you're trading Doogie, it's got to be for somebody you are DROOLING over ... Justin Upton, Devin Masoraco, Jesus Montero, whoever your target is.
Fortunately, Z has pressed this very principle. While the blogs recommended dealing Lee for bundles of low minor leaguers, Zduriencik was RUTHLESS in targeting Montero/Smoak.
Stars & Scrubs baby. Elite talent wins.

Bedard + League :- )

What would a Bedard and League bundle be worth to a contender?

Slap. Me. Silly.
A team that needed an ace and a Rolaids nominee ... there's just no telling what they'd cough up. If anybody even had the --ML-ready-- marquee talent you were after.
But it seems the M's like Brandon League a lot more than SSI does. He's awful to watch, but objectively speaking, he has collected a save or two. :- )

Fister left yesterday's game with a rib injury...

going on the DL...
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120407&content_id=28083828&vke...