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Q. Seven innings, one run. Why would he ever get knocked out? What does a bad Blake Beavan game look like?
A. Why did Fister ever get hit last year?
These guys don't get lots of strikeouts. Sometimes the grounders go through holes. And sometimes it's Adrian Gonzalez at the plate.
We're not saying that Beavan's a plus starter, but he can go out there and pitch a tough game. He'll be ahead in the count, 0-1 and 1-2, and the fastball will come in there located. So his defense, and the park, will prevent some runs.
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Q. There's no upside, you say? Why not?
A. Unless you are Bartolo Colon (explain that one to me!!) you are not going to get swings and misses with a predictable 92 fastball. Noooo wayyyyy.
Beavan's 84 changeup is quality, it dives a lot, is tough to square up .... but it does NOT get hitters fishing out in front.
Here, check out the dive on Beavan's changeup...
r high-K or high-GB guys coming in to put out fires: it feels like you're in control of the AB, like if you do your job you can "force" an out.
But David Pauley is a guy who relies on his defense, a guy with a starter's arsenal, and he's doing all right. Jamey Wright is also a guy with a starter's rhythm, a starter's game, and Eric Wedge simply decided he'd take outs any way he could get them.
Even after one game, I like Beavan better than Chris Ray or Aaron Laffey, and maybe better than Jamey Wright.
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Back in the 1990's, I used to be very fond of the Steve Karsay / Ramiro Mendoza type swing men ... give you the spot start when you needed it, give you three innings out of the pen when you needed it.
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In a dream scenario, Beavan adds 1-2 mph in the bullpen, and keeps his location... you know who threw 94 into a teacup? Shawn Kelley.
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:shrug: One more average-solid, reasonably effective major league pitcher who is being paid the minimum. What else is goin' on today? They got fireworks at Cheney?
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BABVA,
Dr D
Or, let's say Beavan comes up with a big forkball, or something. On that day, I shall dance the Futterwack vigorously.
Interesting that he credited a new curveball that the Tacoma pitching coach taught him with his late surge in AAA this year...and then they didn't throw it. I guess they were keeping it simple for him but it is encouraging that he's got a curve. Maybe we will see it next start.
Drayer said a couple things: one, that he used to throw 100 but they reworked his mechanics to focus on command, as you observed, and two, that his coaches in Tacoma think they can get him up to 95. So the ' dream scenario' is a very real possibility.
Doc...doesn't the fact that Beavan is a 95 mph arm CHOOSING to throw 92 imply that...if he needed to rear back he could choose a bit less command for a bit more speed? I would call that potential upside since he can vary his game.
Make him teach the Putz forkball to Beavan and bump Blake's potential up a few notches. He can give it to Carraway and Erasmo while he's at it.
We've already got one coach giving everyone the cutter - why not another for the fork?
~G
Brandon McCarthy, we just saw today, is an example of what happens if a guy has command of a 91 fastball and then adds even a single positive offspeed pitch.
Beavan does have the solid velo and the command, and he's one offspeed weapon away from that Guthrie / McCarthy territory...
Wonder why that forkball isn't more popular...
And Bard, catching him for the M's, musta caught some of his Rainiers games, right?
Yeah, now that you guys mention it, the addition of a strikeout offspeed pitch might not be as much of a pipe dream as I was thinkin'...
Really hit me today, how much Brandon McCarthy is Beavan, add a 12-6 curve...
Had nooooooo idea.
It does start to sound like the Jeremy Guthrie scenario is the reasonable ambition.
Not that Guthrie would crack this rotation :- ) but I'm a huge Guthrie fan. Won BABVA a roto title his splash year - caught him a game on Extra Innings and had to have him at any cost.
You really start to wonder what a team would do if it had eight good AL starting pitchers. Seems like the Yankees had this happen a few times in the 1990's.
But his CG is so disengaged these days that the high-90's have got to be long gone.
Guys like Clemens, Ryan, etc., drop-and-drive and get so much power from their weight travel... Beavan is using nothing but arm...
Brooks had a very low SD on his fastball velocities. The lack of CG travel acts as a very effective brake on his velo. Think of a guy shooting a basketball while seated in a folding chair: if 15' is his longest shot, then 15' is the max...
All the above, having been said...
I'm mesmerized by the idea of taking somebody with a Brandon Morrow arm, and telling him, "just flip the ball into the catcher's mitt at 91 mph."
Trying to think of precedents... could be that Bartolo Colon evolved something like this over the years. But that's not a great comparison. Tough to think of somebody who did exactly what Beavan has done.
I am guessing we don't see more forks and circle change-ups and the like (the dive and run pitches) because those pitches are nearly impossible to throw for gimme strikes and you end up being Brandon League (i.e. feeling you can't throw it for a called strike early in counts and then everyone will know his fastball is coming for a strike).
And they'll tell you that there isn't much difference between the two.
The groupthink is that the fork and change are so similar there would be no point to Beavan learning it (the change is already his #2 pitch).
That ain't what I see on TV, though. Clemens' and Fassero's and Finley's and Dempster's and Nolasco's (and League's!) forkballs aren't to be discussed in the same conversation with changeups.
I guess Beavan will bop along with that average little changeup that gets topped for groundballs. Maybe the yakker will come around, as with McCarthy.
by teaching them the split finger fastball. Bruce Sutter was out of baseball (for all of a couple of hours) before he set out to learn the pitch. Sutter said the key to the pitch is you have to have abnormally long fingers. The other issue is that it puts a lot of stress on the forearm and elbow of the pitcher. Great pitch if you can throw it.
And ya, have heard that about the forearm and elbow.
It's funny - League doesn't look like that kinda guy, long fingers and whatnot. But probably the stress is a lot different for relievers.
Still, back in the day, the forkball was something an SP would throw 8, 10 times a game only, get three or four strikeouts with it...
But yeah.
That sticky hands help too. I remember hearing Sasaki had really sweaty hands or something, which probably helped his splitter too.
Sasaki is visiting in a couple of weeks... He can teach his splitter too haha.
IIRC, Saski said there were two keys to his forkball. 1) Jamming the ball as far back in to the crotch of his fingers as possible, fingers splayed wide, and 2) Throwing it as hard as he could.
So maybe it's not the long fingers so much, as getting spread between your fingers. Piano players who start young can spread their fingers way wide... It's just like doing the splits or touching your toes, you gotta do lots of stretching, and it's best to start early. My guess is most ballplayers never spent any time stretching their fingers out.