1
Interesting that they have been putting Liddi at SS in order to get Seagar time at 3B.
POTD Kyle Seager
=== Input - Crunch - Output Dept. ===
Kyle Seager has the following similarities with David Bell:
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Kyle Seager has the following similarities with Chris "Yoda" Snelling ...
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- Identical "Keep the bat in the zone forever" LH swings
- Short to the ball, long through the ball, unusual extension
- Resilient "hit the inside half of the ball" approaches
- Single-digit HR's, but lots of long doubles and triples
- Hit left hand
- A few biscuits away from 6', 200"
- Unimpressive arms and legs; super impressive abdomens and hips
- Cement-hard .400ish OBP's that survive league transitions (first game)
- .320/.400/.450 slash lines based on near-1.0 EYEs, "surprising pop for a little man," and 70 HIT ability
- Good baserunners, don't count on many SB's
- Dirt Dog mentality
- Hit out of quasi-crouch, very alert, quick, super aggressive
- Even right down to the low "broom sweep" wait for the pitcher, the bat pointed up at the sky at setup ...
- ... etc. etc.
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=== SABR Caveats ===
As sure as we're typing up this shtick, somebody will want to come in and age-comp Snelling and Seager.
It's a fool's errand. In terms of age and level, here's a wormhole of difference between an international teenager and a College World Series star.
The age-arc similarities are that both Seager, and Snelling, immediately hit for AVG and BB's no matter where you put them.
Both were going to be able to slug .500 against overmatched competition, but neither projected to .500 against equal competition. Not in my opinion.
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=== Keeps the Bat In the Zone a Long Time ===
Seager is the very definition of this principle. Ackley gets credit for it, but he's only above-average in terms of KBIZLT -- Ackley loops the swing for power.
As you slo-mo this home run by Seager, watch how he is very short to the ball and long through the zone, with great extension.
That's what they're talking about with this swing mechanic: keep the hands back, keep the bat hinged until the last possible second -- while it's hinged, it is in a sense on a plane with the ball. (We'll explain why that's true, some other time.)
Then, once the bat unsnaps, the hands are already on a plane similar to the pitch's plane (wherever that is) and the extension of the forearms and bat create a plane that matches the pitch's plane for a much longer time.
When coaches teach (chime in RockiesJeff!) KBIZLT, they say things like "pull the knob inside the ball," things like "be short to the pitch and long through it," or the really cool one, "hit the inside half of the ball."
You know how Carlos Peguero's bat is tilted 45 degrees, even on a home run? Not that.
Go through these super slo-mo's and you'll see, even in 2009, that Seager was born with KBIZLT.
***
This was a big key to Chris Snelling's offensive game, and it's Kyle Seager's secret, too.
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=== PWR ===
It's tough for a guy who is (1) short to the ball, and (2) short to the doctor's measuring stick, to (3) hit very many home runs. You've probably noticed that Seager's bat wrap is the opposite of Ackley's.
Which is okay. Ichiro also does not wrap the bat. Chris Snelling certainly didn't. Some HR hitters don't.
And Seager gets GORGEOUS weight transfer -- his core is Manly-Man powerful and Seager gets some serious juice to the ball. Chone Figgins, he ain't. Rest assured, Kyle Seager is a lot closer to Nick Franklin than he is to Chone Figgins.
Just let's not forget that Seager is like Brendan Ryan's size. Size matters. Dustin Ackley is a 1-in-100 freak. Can't see it for Seager.
But gap power? That's a given. This kid puts some steam on his swing.
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=== Capt Jack "Remains To Be Seen," Dept. ===
Two things we don't know about Seager, that were critical talents of Snelling's:
1. Snelling had the tremendous desire, the sheer joy for the game of baseball ... that left him unintimidated, focused, and aggressive.
2. Snelling had a real Edgar-like gift for keeping his hands back on breaking pitches. Ackley has this. Generally, KBIZLT helps a lot with this, but who knows whether Seager has a special gift here.
If you were to spot me these two question marks?, then I'd follow on by saying that Kyle Seager IS Chris Snelling. Going to a Rainiers series this weekend, those would be the two specific things I'd check.
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One difference in Seager's favor: Kyle Seager is as light on his feet as Legolas walking on top of the snow. He positively floats around the bases.
Snelling ran very heavily. Maybe this will be a difference as far as the DL.
=== Dr's Prognosis ===
Earlier I had brushed Seager off.
But now hold on. We hadn't looked at the swing, and hadn't looked at the Tacoma transition.
... the intersection of (1) his diamond-hard OBP league transitions and (2) the KBIZLT swing and (3) the obvious Snelling similarities, up and down the clipboard ...
For me, those create a Hold 'Em card flip at a new Chris Snelling.
(Had Snelling been healthy, he'd probably have been a lefty Edgar -- the younger, smaller Edgar, the one without the HR's. As it was, the dog-chewed, tattered Snelling retired with a .360 OBP in the bigs, just bits and pieces here and there in a tragic career.)
I dunno whether Kyle Seager is Chris Snelling II. But I know that we get to watch and see whether he becomes Snelling.
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=== This Year, You Ax? ===
1) Well, he came out with Ackley, same time, same conference, same school, so I've heard...
2) Ackley had 900 AB's, all in the high minors, and was ready after 600.
3) Seager has had 1200 AB's, only 300 in the high minors (this year, where he was real good).
4) They seem to have comparable dispositions, as it relates to taking on better players. I would half-expect Seager to show an Ackley-type snarl on reaching the AL.
Supposing that Seager rips up Tacoma for three more weeks ... it would be rushing him to let him jobshare 3B in Safeco, but it would be a sensible rush.
Note that Chris Snelling himself would have been a Mariner at age 20. Lou Piniella wanted him right then right there, if he hadn't blown out his knee.
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My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
2
Seager has a hand load of approximately zero. He just moves the bat forward. No load, no coil, just position hands in one position, then start swing from there. That makes it extremely hard to hit home runs if you're not a very large, muscular dude (say, Frank Thomas sized), and Seager isn't.
He basically steps forward to "fake" a hand load and starts his hands at his back left shoulder. When he gets all of it he can sneak one out of the park here and there, but no, it will NOT be a regular occurance.
And if he hits 50 doubles (his 550 AB pace for this year) then nobody's really gonna care about single digit HRs. That would make him Wade Boggs, basically, who had no HR power and nobody cared a whit.
Now, he's never gonna have Boggs/Raines-level batting eye, but there are worse things than being Tim Raines Lite.
Not having to load his hands means he can catch up to most pitches without a problem. He's got a good swing plane, as you mention, and he lets the pitcher's velocity do a lot of the work, which was always Tony Gwynn's approach.
It's a simple approach. I like simple things in baseball. Seager has a good eye, a good swing, good bat speed, good time in the zone, good results againt both lefties and righties...
He's a lot of good. I don't know that he's great at anything, but I also don't know that he has to be.
I don't need him to be Boggs or Gwynn or Raines. I only need him to be the good version of Kyle Seager. That would be miles better than Figgins is right now.
And for reference:
Lonnie Chisenhall, #25 prospect for 2011, ages 19-22:
.271/.344/.451, 32 doubles, 5 triples, 19 HRs per 550 ABs, .56 batting eye. Rated the best 3B prospect not named Moustakas (though Lawrie's making a case too), just called up to the bigs after 250 AAA at-bats (1470 overall). Top hitter in the Indians system.
Kyle Seager, not rated, ages 21-23:
.321/.401/.470, 42 doubles, 3 triples, 10 HRs per 550 ABs, .78 batting eye.
Lonnie turns 10 of Seager's doubles into HRs, Kyle hits more singles, they both walk about the same. You'd think Kyle's line was skewed by High Desert...except he's hitting more doubles this year, and his average and slugging are nearly identical, even if he did hit a few more HRs in the Cal League.
IMO, he's got the same chance to turn into a 100 OPS+ hitter in the bigs that Chisenhall does, if not more. Now, I'm not a huge Chisenhall believer, so maybe that's not saying much...
But Seager's legit in my book. He'd be our 2B of the future if we didn't have a perennial All-Star blocking the way.
Sometimes a Richie Sexson can get legitimately blocked by a Jim Thome and still be a good player in his own right. A Todd Walker/Placido Polanco type at 3B would be a godsend at this point. He'd have more value for someone else at second, but for us? There's a reason 6'5 Liddi is getting reps at short in order to get Seager more comfortable at the hot corner.
3B is Kennedy's until September, IMO, but after that...Seager's trying to put his name at the top of the list going into Spring Training 2012.
~G
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What I meant with David Bell: 5-10, 170; not much of threat to put a number in the "HR" column starting with 2 or higher (only one time in 12 seasons, and that was exactly 20); but pretty much a lock for 40+ XBH, mostly doubles; never struck out much (career K% 14.2, almost exactly what Seager has done in the minors).
But the main thing: offensive profile of a middle infielder, not a shortstop, and so always either having to play second (and usually blocked there) or scramble to justify himself at third.
I'm no good at analyzing the physical stuff, so I didn't mean that their swings or approach were similar.
If Seager hits like healthy Snelling, that's obviously a different kettle of fish. As G says, not Boggs level, but plenty adequate for a role player at third. And he can also play 2b and could probably handle LF if they trotted him out there. He's not slow.
OK, so here's a guy who was 5-11, 175 and played 2b, 3b, LF and even 380 games at first, and had a career OPS+ of 107 and career RC/27 of 5.1 maxing out at 16 HR. But he had a freakish eye ratio (1.36) and never struck out more than 10% of the time. Seager is good, but won't match that.
Maybe another ex-Met (5-11, 185) is a better comp. Played 889 MLB games at third with a career OPS+ of 104 and career RC/27 of 5.6, but had more high-teen and 20+ HR years than Seager will have (but, now that I look at it, some or all of such were probably chemically enhanced).
Seager's best bet is probably somewhere between David Bell (career OPS+ of 85 career RC/27 of 4.3) and those two guys. And G's Todd Walker (6-0, 180) mention is another good one (career OPS+ of 98; career RC/27 of 5.3), though he never got more than spot duty at third.
Main question was: Can Seager contribute at 3b? And it looks like the answer is yes.
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Absolutely. I mean I'd rather have his skillset at 2B, but he's not displacing Ackley, who's gonna be a monster, and sliding him to 3B is perfectly acceptable. Without regard to swing differences or handedness, I have Seager in the Todd Walker/Placido Polanco/Freddy Sanchez mold.
Walker: .290/.350/.435, .74 Eye, 36/4/13 per 162
Polanco: .302/.347/.409, .80 Eye, 31/3/10 per 162
Sanchez: .297/.335/.413, .43 Eye, 39/3/9 per 162
Their OPS+ numbers? 98 for all of em. That's what an approximate 100 OPS+ doubles hitter looks like, with a bit of a peak for the prime, which is what we'd have Seager under club control for.
So if Mattingly/Raines/Gwynn is the upper class of that division, and Walker/Polanco/Sanchez are the middle class...what's in between?
I include Brian Roberts as the ultimate version of that middle class, since he hits a few more homers while racking up doubles, but his decline phase should take him back to about where Walker and Polanco are.
I don't know that I would say there IS an upper-middle class. If you're a freak, then you're a borderline HOFer or better with that skillset. If you're not then you either start hitting HRs or you top out at Brian Roberts.
IMO, anyway.
I mean:
John Valentin - similar size and skillset, but hit 18 HRs per 162.
Orlando Hudson - firmly in the middle class of this batting type
Scott Hatteberg - 31/1/13, 101 OPS+. See Hudson, Orlando
Adam Kennedy is the bottom of this class with his 89 OPS+ career, because he just doesn't hit quite as many doubles as he needs to.
It's hard to hit > 40 doubles and
But it's a good, productive neighborhood to be in, whether at 2B or 3B. A perfect roleplayer-on-a-contender neighborhood...
~G
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The Bell = 0 thing was just TIC ... didn't mean to dis' your question. ;- )
Ya, we all realize that you're talking about workmanlike, very reliable/predictable, underrated infielders without big ceilings. :daps:
Thanks *mucho* for the starter kit. Just the three vids needed...
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Infielder with mediocre range, no HR's, easy to label that guy huh?
... and there's a lot of rationale behind that. Scouts look at a smallish 19-year-old and ... he may look WunDerBar! out on the field, but the 30,000-foot view is that with no power, he's just a dime-a-dozen org player as a pro.
Problem comes when a kid's specialness goes overlooked. Franklin's epic swing and age/results, Seager's HIT ability, Pineda's velo x command.
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Agree with you on the Walker / Polanco comps, and the Chisenhall comp was most info-taining :- )
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The knock on Seager is his range at 2b ... steady hands, few mistakes, but not super quick compared to some MLB gloves there.
If you've got the arm, then your mediocre 2b play becomes --- > plus 3b play. Teams been doing that for a hundred years.
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Ordinarily you want to keep an eye on PWR in the corners, but (1) that doesn't apply if you are REALLY talking about a top-20 OBP, and (2) Ackley's power at 2b somewhat balances an OBP-first player at 3b.
At the moment, I'm intrigued by Seager at 3b, and I'm not sure that wouldn't mean a trial this year. They've got to get data on Seager before they have to decide on Nick Franklin, Carlos Triunfel, etc.
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We don't need more stars to win the WS, though obviously, if we can luck into a couple more that would be very nice. But we have enough marquee talent now. What we need is the scrubs. If you folks are right about Seager (and I'm leaning more and more toward thinking he's got a shot to contribute...I look pretty wrong on my calling him Bloomquist with a better eye) then there's one big scrub right there. Plus, Seager would translate well in Safeco...hitting low liners and grounders like a dwarf lumberjack...no reason Safeco would damage him...which makes the .280/.350/.400 line he puts up worth something more like .300/.370/.440 in a neutral park. Seager as our cheap, effective replacement for what we thought we'd get from Figgins? That'll play nicely. We still need Halman or Carp to work out (I'm about to write off Peguero here...he needs to go down to AAA and learn to hit inside pitches) as our LF/DH and we need to go find another bat from outside the org to fill the other LF/DH slot...but we're getting closer.
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At 3rd base no less? Sign me up!!!!
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*Clooney is obsessing over the perfect number of players for absolute victory*
"Ten oughtta do it don't you think? You think we need one more? ...You think we need one more. All right, we'll get one more."
*Brad Pitt stares off into space, head on the bar with a martini glass by his elbow, weary of the back and forth*
I think we need one more - and I think it needs to be a bat.
I don't think Smoak + Ackley + scrubs gets it done. It requires the staff to both be perfect and to stay healthy. Sometimes that happens. A lot of times it won't.
Smoak + Ackley + Fielder is a slam-dunk lineup with this staff. Shore up the pen a bit and call it a day. Odds of it happening are about 5%, but it would instantly make us a contender.
Ethier, Kemp, Pence are all interesting possibilities. Sizemore might be a buy-low situation for a homecoming. Kubel might be an Ibanez-level add, though many wouldn't consider him a star - his salary would require him to be one.
I just don't think we can realistically compete with a two-man MOTO, even if our pitching is fabulous.
Maybe with a Hultzen addition our staff is so Genghis Khan that no one can stand before us, but the Phillies and the Red Sox have both offense AND pitching, and pitching is a strength in the whole division, not just on our team.
We need one more...hitter.
~G
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It has to be Halman. I'm afraid Guti is about to follow the path of Rocko Baldelli and his Mystery Illness and spend several years in misery trying to figure out what's wrong. Doc's stated his similar belief before, and I agree.
So we NEED a backup center fielder with starting potential.
Halman has to be on the 25 man next year or pass through waivers, so we need to give him a couple hundred at-bats in the second half to see what he's got to offer and how soon. He's our only Guti insurance.
If he doesn't work out and Guti continues his death rattle at the plate then we can add a new CF in a year or two, but right now Halman is basically a Must.
Peguero can be sent down for two more years, and should be. Or traded.
And Carp should get LF/DH time (this is assuming we don't trade for one) because he's in the same roster situation as Halman, just with more limited position options.
If and when we wave the white flag on the season the kids need to play - A LOT. Here's hoping Zen Halman maintains his newfound presence at the plate.
~G
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You're not going to be able to trade for a defensively capable CF...Halman is that already and if he hits...he's a better bet than Guti to produce.
I think Ichiro/Ackley/Smoak is enough offensively if you can find a bunch of 100 OPS+ scrubs. If Halman, Carp, Seager and Olivo are 100-ish OPS+ guys...and you add the two-man MOTO and the one-man lead-off wrecking crew...that team scores 800 runs and clobbers the west in 2012. Of course, if we have a chance to add a real thumper to protect Smoak (right now he's getting nothing to hit and is still somehow slugging it out for a 140 OPS+...what happens if he has protection?), then yes, I want to do that and I think that would make us a 100+ win team assuming the scrubs work out. But I don't think you HAVE to add a thumper to win the west. It just requires a bunch of other things to go right for the less impressive model to work.
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Jeff, excellent article. I have been gone so writing a short reply. Yoda could have been really fun to watch. It was shame his flame burned so quickly. It is great now to watch youth with such solid fundamentals. You are right on with KBIZLT. One thing I really push along with what you had said is in the squaring up to really extend through the zone and hit the inside of the ball. Kids want to pull, pull, pull. Next season in high school, as with college this season, baseball goes back to fundamentals of smaller ball and not the power stroke. I love watching a kid take the outside pitch to the opposite field. That only happens when the bat has a long hitting area. In a similar way, back in the 70's when I played a lot of golf, two of the best ball strikers was Jack Nicklaus and Lee Trevino. They had two of the most consistent hitting areas of anyone in golf. Baseball is no different in the physics required and applied.
Great thoughts again!! Thanks.
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That's a clear indication that the M's are taking him seriously and are thinking about how he would fit in the majors. They could have easily left him at second since the guy they have there is a total non-prospect and much better suited to short than Liddi.
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Seager smashes a homerun and brings his batting average up to .548.
I didn't think he was much of a prospect, with his upside being a league average player for a few years. However, his hot hitting since his promotion has made him a lot more interesting. If he really can do a Snelling impersonation then he'd be a huge asset.
Thinks look to be really falling into place. If Seager can be counted on to be a regular, I just don't get how someone can look at our 2012 roster and think we are still in the process of rebuilding.
C- Olivo1st- Smoak2nd- AckleySS- Ryan3rd- SeagerLF-CF- Gutierrez/HalmanRF- IchiroDH-
There are really only two holes, and the M's can easily fill those with free agency or trades (remember Jack brought in Cliff Lee and he has more trade chips now). Our rotation is stacked, with more help on the way in the form of Paxton and Holtzen (if he signs). The team looks perfectly positioned to compete next year.
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How good is Seager defensively at 3B?
The big difference between Walker and Polanco is that one was lead glove and the other a GG-caliber defender at 2B and 3B.
Polanco was an Ichiro-level player when he'd hit for average in his good years. He was also consistently a 3-4 WAR player in the other years. The guy has been an impact player and very overlooked.
Todd Walker was generally a league-average player.
If Seager can be Polanco, he could end up having a better career than Justin Smoak. He'd be extremely underrated as a prospect.
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Couldn't tell ya Taro, except that by default a converted 2B is presumed to be a plus 3B, given that he has enough arm to play there.
You also have James' principle that defense is primarily work ethic ... a principle echo'ed by Zduriencik last week re: Ackley. Even if a rookie's defense isn't good, he can *become* good.
If he wants to. Which is the rep, at least, that Seager has.
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1. Snelling had the tremendous desire, the sheer joy for the game of baseball, that left him unintimidated by better players and by unlikely situations.
2. Snelling had a real gift for keeping his hands back on breaking pitches, a la Ackley. Generally KBIZLT helps a lot with this, but I couldn't say that Seager is gifted in this respect.
If you were to spot me the above two question marks, then I'd follow on by saying that Kyle Seager IS Chris Snelling.
Going to a Rainiers game this weekend, those would be the two things I'd be watching...
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If they're not able to come up with a CF from among the current jardineros...
Nothing wrong with converting any given middle infielder. Probably Kyle Seager could run with Michael Saunders. In the videos, running the bases, Seager is VERRRRY light on his feet.
Triunfel might be a candidate for this. Or Nick Franklin, if they decide they don't like his glove at SS.
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How many flaws and slumps does that one fix. LOL.
Seager and Snelling were born doing it.
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Allowing you to give Nick Franklin and/or Carlos Triunfel that extra 300-500 AB's in the high minors...
As far as DH/LF ... One big-money bat, somebody like Prince Fielder or some cleanup-hitting LF, and then you can let The Field fill the other spot.
And other talent continues to collect ... let's say Pimentel or Carp or ? become a pleasant surprise, you'll find PT for the guys who pan out.
***
Ya, you can definitely see the X's and O's taking shape. No surprise that the plan looks a lot better after Pineda, Smoak, and Ackley are confirmed as young stars.
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One difference in Seager's favor: Watch Seager's home run trot. He's as light on his feet as Legolas walking on top of the snow. He just floats around the bases.
Go check it out. It's fun to watch him run: he looks like he's running in 0.8 gravity.
(This, along with vertical jump, is what NFL combines assess when trying to assess pure overall athleticism.)
Snelling ran heavily. Maybe this will be a difference as far as the DL.
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That's a ton of love, and probably juuuuust a bit high. I'd give Ackley a 65 tops, and that's not diss'n' Ack-Ack Attack one bit. Seager & Snelling are definitely a step below that.
While I do think Ackley's ceiling is a lefty-Edgar with slightly less pop, he's still slightly below Edgar in his hit tool. Edgar's a 70 hit tool. Gwynn, too. Ichiro probably. Ackley's a step below all of those guys, and Seager's a step below Ackley. Still a decent player, that has a chance of being a league-average regular, but I guess I'm not sold on either Snelling OR Seager having a 70 hit tool...
Just sayin'...
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Good point Jeff. At most levels there are very few born with it. So my goal is never emergency cures but teaching proper techniques. From that starting point, then in a slump, you have something to go back to and continue to build upon. Otherwise, who knows, maybe the slump is just reality! To watch someone do it right....that is fun! Just too rare!
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I'm WAY with you guys on a Halman extended CF trial in half #2. We've seen Guti at his best. As such he's a heck of a player. but the huge question is whether he can ever find that again, or even approach it. I'm not so sure. Playing Halman this year gives you a look (at least) at your insurance CF and it may allow a superior talent to develop. Win, Win, that.
Seager guys, dirt tough, who bang out 30+ doubles, have above average eyes, and have a glove/arm combo that gives you great versatility have long fascinated me. I'm surprised nobody mentioned the all-time example of that template which would be Pete Rose. Hey, Seager will be no Rose (I'm assuming he's smart enough to not call his bookie from the dugout) but is of the same template in many ways. Rose, by the way, played in All-Star games at 4 positions. I could see Seager as a 3B OR in LF...if we acquire/develop a 3B (Franklin?). He's a valuable commodity and his versatility and HIT/EYE combo means he will absolutley play a while in the bigs. I'm willing to bet we see him this year. Sept probably.
I still really like Carp. Always have. He'll hit for somebody. Hope it's us.
Mike Wilson continues to whack at Tacoma. I refuse to cross him off the list based on the limited shot he had this year.
And, as a DH, Limonta seems to be a prospect. Won't tater the ball.....but he hits for average and walks a bunch. Sept. for him, too, perhaps.
26
what is your definition of HIT tool? Just the ability to get the bat on the ball, his ability to spray the ball all over the field, does plate discipline and power come into play? Reason I ask is because to me a 65 means above average but not elite. If you just mean his ability to get the bat on the ball and put it in play id agree with a 65 grade. However if you meant everything, from hitting the ball, to showing a good eye at the plate, to showing some power then ill disagree with you.