Supposing that you had an imperative to
(1) Re-sign Bedard, because he'd sign for 50c on the dollar, and because you want to win playoff games rather than appear in them, and
(2) Bring in as much hitting as you would without re-signing him. How would you do that?
You'd have to trade Fister or Vargas (or Paxton!) for a club-controls hitter that would bring a big WAR/$ value --- > compared to a FA signing.
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I don't know. If you're a cash-strapped team, would you rather sign Erik Bedard in a bidding war ... or would you rather have 3-4 years of Doug Fister at club-controls discounts? For somebody like the Royals or Padres, Fister is the only option, right?
And I can see Tom Tango calculating that Doug Fister, over the next 3-4 years, is a more valuable commodity than Erikkk as a FA signing.
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Getting a big hometown discount from Erikkk, and then parlaying a young, good SP into a club-controls hitter .... how do you assess that option?
Here's our pitching contract situation:
- Felix - through 2014
- Pineda - through 2016
- Vargas - through 2013
- Fister - through 2015
- Bedard - through 2011
Vargas and Felix are both about to get more expensive. Maybe we do use the majority of our FA funds on Bedard. But we also have the following arms in system:
- Hultzen (assuming a signing), lefty who could be ready in a couple of months to a year.
- Erasmo Ramirez, RH who can come in with ridiculous control and be a #5 pitcher shortly.
- Andy Carraway, another RH control pitcher but one who is taking easy laps around AA
- Mauricio Robles, lefty who strikes out 10+ per game through AAA and is coming off an injury - might move to the pen.
- James Paxton, lefty who is currently striking out 12+ with bad control but should be at A+ or AA by the end of the year.
A couple years away they also have Maurer, Wilhelmsen, Walker...
That's a decent selection of potential #3-#5 guys for a team that only needs one in the next 3 years - or none if Bedard is back.
If we sign Bedard, and expect Hultzen to come up before 2014 (which, uh, yeah...) then we've got to trade Fister or Vargas.
And since Bedard has status as an ace that neither Vargas nor Fister has, he can probably get more in trade. If we wanted to re-sign him in the offseason that's certainly one way to go, but it doesn't prevent us from trading Bedard in July.
If we'd drafted Rendon, then you could make the argument that signing Bedard to lock down the rotation is a better option.
Once Ackley gets here, though, there aren't a lot of potentially-plus hitters left in the upper minors that you could expect to help us soon. We have other role-players that could come through, but it'd be a great boon to get another plus hitter in here.
If we can't re-sign Bedard then we lose him for nothing after the season. No draftpicks, nothing. If we're trying to win this year, I get that, but then somebody else (like Walker) is going out the door to improve the offense. We NEED offensive help, this year and in future years. And some arm is leaving us to make that happen.
I still expect it to be Bedard, assuming success and healthy follow him into July. ~G
Comments
That occurs if you don't offer him arbitration, right?
Am under the impression that the system would take 2011 and 2009, editing out 2010, which would leave Bedard as a type A free agent, right?
... which of course is why you're thinking in terms of using him yourself, G, and using the savings on offense. Probably is the Prime Computation, yeah.
Fister had 2.9 WAR last year, which was $12m on the FA market. He's on pace for 4.0 to 4.5 WAR this year ... $15-17m worth. I'm sure that a lot of GM's would assess this version as the one they'd get going forward...
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Cots has Fister as making the minimum, and his ML service as 2.06 years after this season ...
Meaning 2012 is club-controls, and then 2013-14-15 as arbitration years, correct?
Have no idea how to calculate the likely arb awards, so somebody please correct me here, but ... in years 3-6, Brett Anderson's salaries were $1m, $3m, $6m, and $8m. That sound about like Fister's salaries if he keeps pitching like he is now?
Giving some team, roughly:
$16m for $1m next year
$16 for $3 in 2013
$16 for $6 in 2014
$16 for $8 in 2015
$65m for $18m overall
Here is an article that, because of this "Net Value" factor, concludes "Even if Adam Jones was a free agent after 2009, given their respective abilities and salaries, I wouldn’t trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard straight up. The fact that the Mariners then control Jones from 2010 to 2013 makes this an obviously horrible trade."
>;- )
In other words, the consensus is that any two years of a cheap, average player are worth more than two years of any superstar even making a discount, as Bedard was presumed to in that article. We believe that this exact logic still prevails on Fangraphs.
We quote that because (the superb) Tango site also emphasizes this "Net WAR/$" logic ... and most of baseball considers this logic to be valid on the face of it.
The logic forgets to adjust for the fact that other club-controls players replace the ones leaving. This is a fatal flaw to the logic, and is the reason that real GM's continue to trade young players for stars, despite Fangraphs' protests. (In hindsight, the 2008-13 Jones' net value had to be reduced by the amount that his young CF replacement -- here Gutierrez -- would have.)
MLB governments can print money. The M's government is about to print a lot more with Paxton, Hultzen, and Walker.
The Fister money isn't worth much to Seattle, but is precious to some teams.
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All that said, not many teams have max'ed out their rotations. :- )
Fister (and Vargas, and Paxton) are going to bring a whale of a cost savings to some mid-market team, and you'd think that converting one into hitting would be a strong option.
Because they WANT to capture the fact that a pitcher is not healthy.
I believe it's over the last 2 consecutive seasons, not just the last 2 seasons you played, and the categories Bedard is being judged on are games pitched, IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, and Ks.
Bedard is not making top 20% in many of those categories based on this season and last season. He's not an A and I can't see him being a B either.
So unless I'm wrong all we're talking about are his last 3 months' worth of starts. Now if you'd like to bet that Bedard's shoulder can hold up and he's a more battle-tested pitcher than someone like Fister, that's okay. My personal rating goes Fister/Bedard/Vargas right now, so if somebody wanted to give me the same deal on Vargas or Bedard I could see keeping Bedard and re-signing him. He seems to like it here.
But Vargas doesn't have name cache. It doesn't matter how good he is, it matters how good you can sell your team and your fans that he is (in large part). We traded for Rey Sanchez in 2003 at the deadline, and he was basically a .300 hitter for us. It was still viewed as taking the weak way out at the deadline, which it was, and demoralized the team.
When the Astros trade for Randy Johnson or Carlos Beltran, it means they're serious, and both their fans and their players know it. If the Reds trade for Vargas instead of Bedard, people will question how serious they are - including people in the locker room, funnily enough. Doesn't matter if they had equivalent WAR or pitching potential. MLB isn't the same sort of star-driven league as the NBA...until the trade deadline. Then name cache matters. Bedard has it, Vargas doesn't - awesome sunglasses promotion aside.
I'm not opposed to keeping Bedard, but it's my feeling that he brings more in trade value AND Vargas is several millions cheaper through 2013 than Bedard will be. We need both money and prospects to get where we want to go. And on the downside, if Vargas goes on the DL he's only running us a couple mil and we have internal options to replace him. Bedard will be an 8 mil a season pitcher minimum, IMO, if he throws 170+ innings this year the way he's been throwing the last 6 weeks.
He's not gonna make 5 mil this year - his incentives should he have that season are higher than that. Why would he take another pay cut? 8-10 mil a year is what I'd expect to pay for him.
I need that money for a bat, and since his trade value should be higher - for some silly reasons, but higher - than a Vargas or a Fister, then I trade him now. Fister I trade in 2 years after we make the announcers compare him to Seaver 97,000 more times and he has a top-20 ERA performance or two. ;)
And he wins some more games. The dude is 12-25 career - forgetting WAR/$ for a second, how do you convince the 24 other guys on your team that he can help them win when he demonstrably doesn't win? Erik Bedard is a 15-game winner who has led the league in Ks before and been top-10 in ERA twice. He has the resume that Fister and Vargas don't have.
Bedard goes.
~G
I have a post written but it wants to smash it all into one giant paragraph, just like it did with my other post. What do I have to do to get it to look right? Adding tags doesn't do anything.
Without a doubt, the sex appeal factor enters in. IMHO that was the key to the Lee deal. People were giddy over him, fortunately for us... compare Washburn.
Vargas' sex appeal is -10. Folks will presumably take him as a schlub benefitting from Safeco. Hence the Fister suggestion, where you can tantalize with upside (the velo uptick). But yeah.
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Have seen in several places, the claim that Bedard's 2010 is edited out, but that's just surfing the 'net. If you're pretty sure it's included, that's type B definitely, right...
Reason I resist, is that Bedard is precisely the Stars & Scrubs factor that allows fungibility at lower roster slots, allows winning in the playoffs, etc. As am sure you also recko'nize.
G's looked like that, and then I refreshed, and then it was formatted properly for no apparent reason. (?)
HATE to lose posts from you guys, much less have you discouraged from contributing. Will send along this P.R. as a priority.
If you paste in and the system doesn't format, CPB, will fix it through my own word app.
Or we make a trade for a star. Vargas + Seager + Walker should get you 80% of the way to anything you want. You use Walker instead of Paxton because he is the one who was ranked as our #4 prospect BEFORE dismantling the MWL as a teen this year.
They're not my "rules of engagement" I'm just telling you what I'd expect. :) Franklin's struggling a bit to start the year, especially against lefties, and Liddi's value isn't as high as it should be, seeing as he's 22 in AAA doing basically what Mike Moustakas did before his callup, same position and age this year. Walker's value is highest for low-minors trading, and then you'll want a piece or two from the high minors as well as a #4 starter now. Seager is holding his value very well.
IF we make a deadline trade (or off-season trade) for a thumper of some sort, that's the kind of package I'd expect to go out, with potentially another piece in a relief arm or whatnot. If we move Bedard instead (or Vargas/Fister I guess), then there are some interesting hitting options on the table from places like Cincy, Cleveland, the Yanks and the Bo Sox (though the Sox emptied a lot of what I'd like to get A-Gone).
I hope to add more long-term offense at the deadline either way.
~G
Personally think that if you package Vargas and Taijuan Walker you are putting a market-setting offer on the table already.
A young, club-controls AL starting pitcher, a hyper-glam prospect, those seem like the 1-2 components of a trade for even Albert Pujols.
That's the classic salt-and-pepper for the blockbuster: cheap, solid ML contribution right now, and big upside down the road.
But, of course, no telling what kind of craziness GM's talk, when they're months off from the deal deadline. We remember Justin Upton.
Getting rid of a top pitcher during the season is not a good way to boost your chances of making the playoffs, and I highly doubt Z would do that. And we can't trade him in the off season since he's a free agent.
So Fister or Vargas are the only current starters who might be traded. They would bring back A LOT, and I'm sure Z will see what he can get for them as he should.
We also have a some interesting minor leaguers who are expendable, like Alex Liddi, who could be added to a deal to get an even better player.
However, I don't think that trading away pitchers is something this org needs to do. Everyone seems to think that the M's are overflowing with starting pitchers and has to get rid of some, but I don't think that is the case. Right now we only 5 quality starters who are Major league ready (the five guys currently in the rotation). If one of the gets hurt, which should be expected since pitchers are so unreliable, we'll be forced to use a scrub like French.
The situation isn't much better for the beginning of next season since the only other guy who might (MIGHT) be ready help out is James Paxton. That leaves only 6 starters if Bedard is re-signed (which he should). That still leaves us thin (although better than the vast majority of teams who struggle to find 4 quality starters) and so the team should not be aggressive in trading away pitchers until some of those young guys actually get to Triple-A and produce.
As for our offense, I think people are still letting the impression formed from the start of the season affect how they look at this team going forward. This team is already dramatically different than just two months ago and so it should be better going forward. Further, there is a lot of good talent that should improve by the time next year comes. Take a look at the Opening Day lineup the M's trotted out:
Ichiro
Chone Figgins (terrible)
Milton Bradley (terrible)
Jack Cust (bleh)
Justin Smoak
Miguel Olivo
Ryan Langerhans (junk)
Brendan Ryan
Jack Wilson (terrible)
That's a really weak lineup that was miserably unproductive. But take a look what the team could do next year even if they don't make any trades and only add one free agent who can easily fit in the current budget:
Ichiro RF
Dustin Ackley 2nd
Justin Smoak 1st
Prince Fielder DH
Franklin Gutierrez/Greg Halman CF
Carlos Peguero/Mike Carp LF
Adam Kennedy 3rd
Miguel Olivo C
Brendan Ryan SS
That's a dramatically younger lineup that should be far more productive. If you combine that with an elite pitching staff, you should have 90 wins in the bag.
- Cool Papa Bell
But I'm not trying to get a 3 month rental for that. If you want 18 months+ of a player, you pay more. We paid Jones + Tillman + Butler + Mickolio + Sherrill for 2 years of Bedard. I don't expect THAT much to go out again, but we would certainly give up glam pitching prospect + #4 starter + something for a year and a half of Carlos Quentin or the like.
~G
As for our offense, I think people are still letting the impression formed from the start of the season affect how they look at this team going forward. This team is already dramatically different than just two months ago and so it should be better going forward. Further, there is a lot of good talent that should improve by the time next year comes.
We labeled this offense a joke, and at such time as it ceases being one, it's going to take an act of Congress to get us to change our minds.
Yet it's precisely the 120 ERA+, 80 OPS+ situation that should always change midseason, and change a lot.
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Would love to see Fielder here. What do you do CPB about the market price for pure DH's (e.g. Ortiz) and the fact that Boras is going to want to score 1B money?
nm.
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Is Quentin specifically an actual name going out onto the trade market?
you need to go remove the stuff after you disable the rich text. I'm basically doing then entering twice then another to start the next line, and it's working out. I dunno if the is helping it recognize the carriage returns I'm putting in or what, but it works.
Just gotta clean it up once you type it, until the fix comes in.
I noticed I left off Adam Kennedy from the second lineup so go ahead and add him somewhere.
Is there a lag in when a post shows up for anyone else?
If you trade away a starting pitcher in a month, who do you have take his place in the rotation?
And turned down the White Sox when they tried to undercut him on a 4 year deal last year. Quentin is gettable, especially if the Sox fall out of it quickly. So are Kemp and Ethier from the Dodgers, and Kubel and a couple others from the Twins. Pence is gettable for a king's ransom, a la Upton, but I don't expect that. Beltran and Reyes. Pretty much anybody off the Cubs, though how many you'd want is another matter, but there are ML bats to go get if we wanted to go that route.
And how do you argue with him? He's every inch the batter that Mark Teixeira is. Yes, he won't have a positive impact with the glove, but he won't have a negative one at DH either. The question is whether we'll go 18-20/mil a year over 6-7 years for The Prince to play with The King. Survey says no, but I'd love to be wrong, because it would make us instantly feared. I don't see us keeping Bedard in that scenario either though - 10 mil for Bedard + 20 for Prince = budget crisis for the Ms. So again, I trade Bedard, sign Prince, and start whaling away on making the 2012-2020 Ms into a dynasty.
But since it's been an hour I guess my first try vanished into the ether: G-money, if you trade a pitcher in a month who would have replace him in a the rotation? (Is anyone else having horrible lag times before their comment shows up?)
Until I go through and hit the approve button. Seems to go away for any given poster after a few comments.
There are 500+ sites in the picture, so thx for the patience :- )
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When I find an 'unpublished' post, I try to respond after approving it, so it will bump to the top.
Anybody with a post getting lagged can give me a quick PM, with the thread, and I'll approve and reply.
You undoubtedly win the bidding war, since the pure-DH salaries have been markedly suppressed...
Not since Safeco opened have the M's had a bonafide superstar LH slugger, and there is no telling what his OPS+ would be...
My position:
I think G asks the absolute correct question. Is Bedard the smart choice to trade THIS YEAR? IMO, he is. The reason -- there are two options, trading youth or trading experience. Experience is more expensive, so most of the arguments tend to focus on the $ or $/WAR factors. And those are good things to consider. But, for me, the primary factor that tends to get lost in the static is ... do you *KNOW* what you've already got?
In this particular case, I'm talking about the offense. The argument has been raised that you should not judge where the offense stands at this instant because it has morphed so much since day one. Great argument. But saying it isn't the same as the April offense is NOT the same as saying - "it's good" - or even "it's better". To make those claims, one must extrapolate the production of a BUNCH of rookies forward. That's a fool's errand. Heck, I wouldn't give a plug nickel to anyone attempting to projecting the production of Ichiro and Figgins for the rest of 2011. And therein lies the reason that trading Bedard (as opposed to Vargas/Fister) is the ... more reasonable path (at the moment).
My position is that you shouldn't be jumping to trade long term vs. short term pieces unless you have *HIGH* confidence that the trade you are making is "likely" to pay off. For this to be the case, you need to have high confidence in the forward projection of the rest of your roster and you need high confidence of a major boost in production at the position you're acquiring.
The second point there is why I believe SP acquisitions tend to pay larger dividends in terms of pennant chases. When you acquire an ace, he replaces the #5 pitcher. The WAR change can be drastic - even if only over 1/3 of a season. For offensive pieces, the waters are a lot muddier. For the 2011 Ms, the floated scenarios mostly focus on DH. While Cust is a disappointment - his 100 OPS+ is average, and bringing in (say) a 135 OPS+ guy is really not going to make that much of a change. If you continue to get 40 OPS+ from 3B and CF your offense is going to continue to stink.
Additionally, even if you trade away the #5 SP, (Vargas), he gets replaced with your #6 ... someone the club already assesses as less valuable as a starter. The mathematical point is that in trading something of value, you are almost certainly losing some value. How much is another arena of uncertainty.
The problem with attempting to push the Mariner offense upward is that the club already has 3 new bodies (Peguero, Carp, Halman), attempting to improve the OF/DH production. The results are unknown, but the early returns from all three have been generally pleasant. The weak link in the OF at this point "might" be Ichiro. And the weakest link in the infield is Figgins.
The big headache for Z at this moment is that you cannot ever learn what you're going to get out of Halman, Carp and Peguero unless you give them enough PT to answer that question. And every scenario with the Ms making a 2011 playoff run I've seen *assumes* that Ackley comes in and adds something to the offense, (though the 2B position has a year long OPS of .721... second only to 1B).
It has been suggested that Kennedy move to 3B, which would mean Ackley would effectively replace Figgins' bat. But, Figgins' glove at 3B this year has been plus ... so again, we're talking about juggling offense and adding uncertainty to the defense. (And the massive increase in team ERA+ happens to coincide with a massive improvement in team DER ... so I for one do not consider this an idle concern).
For me, the ultimate example of this uncertainty is Peguero vs. LROD. In April, many viewed LROD as a potential offensive savior. He had some early success while others were struggling. He was coming off an exceptional AAA performance in 2010. Pequero was viewed by most as organizational filler and the reaction to his promotion to the big club was generally shock. As of this moment, Peguero has a 125 OPS+ (.799 OPS), while LROD has swooned to .562 (62). Each has 87 PAs.
For me, the 2011 season for the Ms has a feel oddly reminiscent of the year that Philly opted to trade away Abreu to the Yankees. The Phils were not competitive that year UNTIL they tossed Abreu overboard, (49-55 on July 31st but won 85). What happened the next year is they ended the Atlanta reign as NL East champs and have been an NL juggernaut since. Instead of trading youth for experience, they opted for the other option. They ended up playing great for the rest of that season anyway.
The known fragility of Bedard and the risk his arm could implode at any moment is just one more reason to get as much as you can out of him while the getting is good.
Presuming that in one month, you've got a setup man that Wedge likes. You could get that RP back in the Bedard deal, perhaps, Mark Lowe style?
Right now, Wilhelmsen is up to 4 IP, but only has a 10/9/3 k/bb/hr in 14 innings. Not throwing great at the moment.
Obviously the #5 SP right now is the issue. Trade Bedard, then .... OH NOOOooooo! News hits, that Michael Pineda has a stiff arm, and .... there's the 2011 pennant race, flushed down the toilet.
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Hey, let's just do Paxton :- ) ... 60 K vs 1 HR in 43 IP.
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Right now the Rainiers look like they have three SP's performing well: Blake Beavan, Fabio Castro, and Luke French, in that order.
Have an inkling that the M's actual choice would be Aaron Laffey.
So I count six candidates for an ML start, other than James Paxton ... not that you're going to confuse any of them with Erik Bedard.
nm
I think you have to trade Bedard this year. Fragile SP on a one-year deal for a rebuilding club with an insanely strong SP core and weak everywhere else. Its any guess how long hes going to stay healthy. I wouldn't hand the guy a multi-year deal.
Hope that he continues to throw bullets into July and try add some more young talent to the club. If hes still killing it, he could end up being one of the most attractie options on the market.
If you're lucky you'll get Bedard as a FA anyways and he won't cost you a draft pick to sign.
We are in the thick of a pennant race. Not only that, but this rotation could be devestating in the playoffs. Just because we had low expectations before the season started doesn't mean we have to stubbornly stick to the pre-season script of trying to unload veterans for young talent. Our goal should be to reach the playoffs and we can do so by adding a player like Carlos Beltran who won't require a lot of talent so long as we pay his salary.
Further, we have plenty of young talent, both close to being major league ready and coming up through the pipeline. The team is not riddle with holes like people seem to think. We have catcher, 1st base, 2nd base, 3rd base (if Adam Kennedy is resigned), centerfield and right field covered next year plus several guys who could cover left or DH (Peguero/Carp/Halman). This team basically really only needs to add one key player (at either short, left or DH) to the lineup while the pitching staff is basically set. That is not a 70-win team that needs to be overhauled, it's an 85-win club that is very well positioned to strike into 90+ win territory with a couple key additions (the type of additions Jack has already shown he can make).
The M's should not be looking to bail on this season. They should be looking to fight their way to the playoffs and giving up Bedard or another starter would be a step backwards from that goal.
OK...We MAY have to trade Bedard this year, if he won't extend. I can live with that, but tradeing prospects this year seem a poor move. We have $12M of Silva/Milton salary coming free and we have young, promising guys at almost every position, minus catcher. Minus putting Figgins arse on the pine, I'm standing pretty pat, right now. I'm letting Smoak and Ackley and Carp and Halman and Peguero develop. If we could trade away part of Figgins' salary for something else, then we free up those several millions, too.
And back to Figgins....Assuming he IMPROVES to .200/.250/300...There is still only one 3B since 1960 with more than 100 PA'S who has performed that badly...Dave Roberts with the Padres in '74 went .167/.246/.252
If he gets to .220/.300/.320 (IF?), he becomes on of 32 3B since 1960 (with 300 PA's) who have performed at that level, which is WAY elevated from his current performance.
I'm shaking my head.
moe
...any of the arms currently at the AAA level. If in the event that one of the Mariners starters goes down for a couple of weeks I would much rather see them reach down to AA and tap Jarrett Grube or even Erasmo Ramirez to fill in. Those guys at Tacoma are a trainwreck.
Lonnie
Carlos Peguero having come up and shown that while he may not be completely ready for Major League "TM" pitching, he's close and making adjustments and could be ready soon. This could be a big factor trading to a "High Class" team that never really rebuilds but is always trying to reload, even when they're cash strapped ::cough:: Mets/Beltran ::cough, cough:: Dodgers/Ethier/Kemp ::cough::
That somebody might be me.
In his first 90 PA's, the dude is slugging about .500 -- in Safeco -- for a 118 OPS+. The guy is already helping, and if he ever hit .270 he'd knock in 100 runs a year.
... whatever they are, none of them look very comforting as replacements to these five guns.
Don't care for Beavan either, eh Lonnie?
Another knight shows up with lance to tilt at cyber-windmills ... :sniff:
Zduriencik started flipping those twist cards early this year, and Peguero (Carp?) Ackley Kennedy seemed to have flipped face cards -- at least in terms of repairing a terrible offense --
And the transition is miles ahead of schedule. Seems like a long time ago that the kibitzers howled in protest over the 2012-oriented (Pineda, Cust, Bedard, etc.) decisions.
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What do you do though CPB if somebody offers you a franchise ML-ready catcher for Bedard?
Which is something like allowing an SP to remain in your rotation with an 8.00 ERA. Whatever the guy's salary is, he doesn't stay in your rotation.
Something's gotta give.
...the likelyhood of something being done with Figgins? I'm a little out of the loop this season and haven't read too much definitively on his future. One notion that has gained traction in recent years that has really grated on me is doing away with power at the corners, as a necessity. In my mind, regardless of how one thought Figgins was to pan out, a long look should have been given to giving yet another traditional slugging spot away. Especially with nothing coming up (for sure) in LF.
Count me in as someone who really enjoys Peguero. He reminds me of the 'B major' sluggers I used to play against in slow pitch days. What a swing! And yes I would rather see someone letting it go than the paralysis by analysis that seems to happen to our other prospects. Does he flame out? Who knows? Dude hits seeds when he connects and that is currently being under-sold on the net..
Ichiro's OPS in May? .508. So far in June: .466.
The fact that this team is in contention without significant contributions from our high priced veterans is certainly amazing. But it begs the question - is it time to trade the golden goose?
Me - I'd move Ichiro, Figgins and Jack Wilson to San Francisco for Barry Zito and Pablo Sandoval. The salaries essentially match, Zito doesn't have a spot in San Fran's rotation even though he has pitched at or above league average for much of his time there, and he would be a particularly nice fit for Safeco. Sandoval the switch hitting third baseman upgrades the position with a club controlled young player.
Then I'd do Vargas and Seager+ for Beltran and the rest of his salary. 3 month rental, yes, but a big upgrade in right or left. =)
Crazy talk, I know. But I'd shake things up in an effort to get both younger and better.
Before we get too wound up with the playoff talk, we have to consider the odds that Pineda and Bedard can throw the 200 innings a pennant run and playoff seriese will require of the team's #2 and #3 starters. Given that last season saw Bedard not throw a single regular season pitch (after seasons of 81 and 83 innings pitched) and Pineda completely gassed after 120 IP, I think there are long odds on either of them throwing much north of 160 innings.
Team OPS: 637
Opponent OPS: 665
Right now the team is getting pretty lucky. I think its more of a mid-to-high 70s W club that is very volatile either way because of unknowns (could suprise or end up being worse). Either way, I think you just have to trade Bedard. The focus should be on the long-term and losing Bedard doesn't doom you in the 2nd half especially if you can land a young C like Mesoraco.
By keeping Bedard I think you waste a golden trade chip. He may not even stay healthy in the 2nd half, is one a one year deal, and won't be worth any draft picks as a FA. He could be worth a TON on the market if he continues to pitch like this into July. You can still sign him as a FA if you trade him.
But we need him to pitch Game 7 of the WS!
I am joking... but only half joking. With that rotation and a ~10-15% offensive improvement this team could be a bear in the playoffs. It's really hard to bail on a historically great rotation.
Still, I don't doubt that the offers will be very tempting...
This team is going to do a lot better, and it already is starting to hit for dramatically more power. Saunders is gone and Wilson barely plays any more and they were sink holes. Once Ichiro starts hitting again and Figgins and Cust are dumped, things will go to another level. Smoak was carrying this club at the beggining of the year but got ice cold once he moved to the 3-spot. Once he rebounds this offense could really click, at least relative to the last 8 baseball months. Throw in a legit bat at the deadline and we will have all the offense this club needs.
Catcher is the only position this org doesn't have anyone with real promise at let alone near major league ready. I'd have to consider it even though I'd be very reluctant.
Remember how Billy always said he used the first third of the season to see what he had, the second third to find what he needed, and the final third to bury the rest of the division? They always had those 15 - 20 game win streaks starting in August. Of course he had the basics in the big three starting pitching. I'm just happy we're in a position to see how we can fix this team and make a run at September. A lot better than watching 101 losses.
Maybe, but it depends on how some of these guys pan out. If the offense does improve, the pitching/defense has to maintain exactly as good as they are to even remain a .500 team. The SP has been legitimately great, but expecting them to continue this over a full season is asking a lot. The bullpen will almost certainly regress hard beyond League-Pauley.
Texas has been extremely unlucky based on their OPS/OPS against and their 3 best players have been riding the DL and not even hitting well yet.
Realistically, this isn't the year IMO. You are pleasantly suprised if the team contends, but the focus needs to be beyond 2011. Bedard is your strongest trade chip (with little value beyond 2011 as he is a FA that won't be Type A) and the team still desperately needs some young position player talent.