The Paxson hip...
.
=== Caveats and Quid Pro Quo's Dept. ===
We're going off templates and scouting reports. And a little video, except for Cole, on whom we've seen more than we'd have liked.
SSI doesn't believe that McNamara and Zduriencik would have "vibed" their choice to their own employees, much less to outsiders. In our consulting days, we didn't have any luck reading senior management's poker faces. They'll get down to contract day and then they'll shock you.
Post-draft, SSI is going to be optimistic about this admin's selection. For example, if they pick Cole, we're going to assume that they believe that they can rework his delivery. If they pick Lindor, we're going to assume that the workouts were off-the-charts crazy.
.
=== 1 ANTHONY RENDON, 3b, Rice ===
THE KEY IDEA IS: He released his med reports and, even if he didn't have power, he'd be the lowest-risk pick.
We thought for a while that Boras wasn't going to release the reports, and then we had this scenario in mind:
- Somebody drafts Rendon blind
- Boras negotiates the deal and slaps the tragic report on the table
- Team demands discount
- Boras demands record-setting money
- Team refuses
- Boras holds Rendon out, to let his shoulder heal, and score big money in June 2012
I'd have taken Lindor over Rendon in that scenario, if for no other reason than not to roll over for that kind of compost.
But: okay, it's a shoulder muscle, maybe even one that needs to have a tendon reattached. Like we say, if Rendon is going to sign, then I'll take him even without the power.
Would like to hear G-Money's take on the torn muscle/tendon; Dr. D wouldn't think you were talking about long-term power loss. (Hang in there, G - we'll get the posting bugs worked out!)
.
WHAT WOULD BE FUN ABOUT THE PICK: The 3rd college high-OBP superstar ... all dovetail-shuffling out perfectly on the infield. Funny thing here? The 1970's Dodgers that drove my Big Red Machine batty, they had a rotation like this one, and offensively they had the 10-year infield around the diamond. Adding a few OF bats was no problem and bam, there's your dynasty.
Rendon, Ackley, and Smoak, with a Juggernaut rotation, that's the basis of a dynasty.
.
=== 2 TREVOR BAUER, RHP, UCLA ===
THE KEY IDEA IS: Bauer is a lower than average risk for injury, not a higher than average one.
***
You know what? There was a time when AVG, HR, and RBI were the best tools to use when comparing hitters. Then, there was a time when OBP and RC/27 had shown up and people refused to accept them. We remember for a while in the 1980's, Rickey Henderson was considered a mediocre-to-good player...
There was a time when pitch counts (per game) were the best tools for measuring pitcher workload. But pitch counts per game, One Size Fits All, are a much more crude stats tool than were AVG, HR, and RBI.
There is a much better tool for figuring out Trevor Bauer's health: ask Trevor Bauer. Think you can take it from there? Think Ichiro.
***
We hear the scouts' objections: his pitch counts, his long toss, his FB and hook won't play in the pro's, his motion is max-effort, yada yada yada.
It is the Tim Lincecum debate all over again (and if there is one subject that SSI is qualified to comment on, we suggest it would be the Tim Linececum debate). Trevor Bauer ANNOYS a lot of people - it is as simple as that. Both as a human being, and as a platypus on the mound, he is hugely irritating. So people find reasons to reject him.
I'm open to the arguments against Bauer. It's my carefully considered opinion that the arguments are shams - rationalizations for rejecting a player that people simply have a lot of distaste for.
Some scout even said that he doesn't have a curve ball. What would you think if scouts were telling you that their main problem with Carlos Peguero was that he was a punch-and-judy hitter? Check 1:45 and 6:15 on the first video on this page.
Hultzen is being talked about for the #1 and the #3. What does Danny Hultzen have that Trevor Bauer does not have ten times as much of? You want a Billy Beane polished college arm with pitchability and a K/BB ratio? Then why in the world would you pass [Danny Hultzen Squared] to get just [Danny Hultzen]?
.
WHAT WOULD BE FUN ABOUT THE PICK: (1) I love Japanese pitchers. Tell me this guy isn't DiceK Next Generation.
(2) Oh, and the interviews. I loved Mike Marshall. I love true rebels.
Lady GaGa types "bravely" tell a room full of cheering, like-minded kids that they won't stand for intolerance - that isn't rebellion any more; it's marketing. Now, take the guys who will cheerfully tell their best friends to take a hike - Mick Jagger, Kurt Cobain, Mike Marshall, Ichiro - if they have to sit by themselves alone in a locker room for ten years, if their greatest fans decide to leave, that's just fine by them.
I also enjoy brilliance - the sense of basking in the radiance of a human being far more advanced than you are. At his specialty, of course. The charisma in that case is immense. Have you enjoyed this about Ichiro?
(3) Oh, and seeing if he's going to gain velocity, like he said he would.
(4) Oh, and watching a pitcher throw eight different quality pitches, as in this video. You can see his pitches break in ... I don't know how many directions. And he says he does not throw the two-seam sinking fastball - he throws only rising 4-seamers, angling for strikeouts in every AB.
If Trevor Bauer were drafted by the Mariners, he would probably become immediately my favorite baseball player of all time.
.