Q. What does SSI consider a Z-Axis Lefty?
A. A left hand pitcher with a 90-92 fastball, a superb changeup, and command within the zone.
See, the plate is the X-axis. The knees to the diaphragm, that's the Y-axis. But the back of the strike zone to the front of it, the depth in the zone, that's the Z-axis.
Batters don't stand there and swing at a pitch in 2 dimensions. Visualize a little light dot that appears for .1 second, and you have to swat it, and it's not appearing on a window; it's appearing within a refrigerator-sized box. Got it?
Hitters talk about the Z-axis more than the other two. "I gotta let the ball get deeper." "He added two feet to his fastball." "He pulled the string on that one."
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Q. Who are the LHP's who throw 90-92 and pitch off good changeups?
A. I count two, those two being Johan Santana and Cole Hamels.
... you see where this is going yet? :- )
Santana 2009-10: 90-91 mph, with 30% changeups at like +2 run value (see 2009 esp.)
Hamels, whole career: 90 mph, with 30-35% changeups at +1-2 run value
Staring at Hamels, the light bulb came on. ALL this guy does is move a 90 fastball around the zone, pull the string on a real good change ... and lifetime he's 8.6 K's, 2.3 walks.
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Q. Does Danny Hultzen have what Cole Hamels has?
A. (1) He was generally conceded to have the best command in all of major college baseball.
(2) He was also generally conceded to have a plus-plus change. "Hultzen's change is the best offspeed pitch of any college pitcher" said one scout. "The best changeup I've ever scouted," said another scout.
(3) 138 strikeouts in 90+ innings, said college hitters. (Or whatever it was.)
(4) Haven't seen anything on the video to contradict this.
Yes, Hultzen seems to have Cole Hamels' toolbox.
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Q. Describe the offspeed stuff?
A. There are pictures of Hultzen turning his hand way over on the change. It's reported to have great drop and fade. The Jamie Moyer "deadfish" change, one of baseball's best strikeout pitches.
Vargas has been using this, although the separation off his FB/cutter is only 6-8 mph. With Hultzen it's 10 mph, easy.
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College reports on the slider are dubious. But McNamara said that it's major league plus right now.
I'd rather see Cole Hamels and Erik Bedard focus on the two pitch game -- and use the slider once in a while back door to RHB's, or in the dirt to LHB's.
But, whatever. The slider is good or it isn't, doesn't change the Cole Hamels comp.
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That's...briliant analysis...I completely missed the comp to Hamels and modern Santana...this is a very impressive series, Doc.
I was very surprised, and a bit upset...I'm glad my first reaction was "maybe someone else willn understand this pick?" I didn't spend the whole evening steamed...I have a strong belief in McNamara and his team.
Hultzen doesn't have the fastball (hes about 2mph lower on average) or offspeed that Hamels/Santana had. He K'ed less than 10 per inning in college when his velocity when back to norm the past couple months.
I think for Hultzen to reach TOR status, he needs to get back to that 90-95mph velocity early in the season.
Hultzen comps:
Upside: Lefty Carl Pavano. Very similar velocity, extreme strikethrowing with above-average command. Plus changeup, okay slider. If Pavano were lefty, he'd be pretty good (especially in Safeco)
Dowside: Brett Cecil (2010). Similar toolset to Hultzen. LHP. Plus changeup, average slider, average command, above-average control. Broke down this season with velocity and command.
Most similar current prospect: Mike Minor. Minor throws about as hard, maybe slightly harder. He has a plus change, but also an above-average curve. Slightly better prospect, but very similar.
Always cool to get cpoints from the top math guy in the blog-o-sphere, you and Graham.
Whoops, just forgot somebody no doubt... ah! like the Purple Pirate...
And congrats on your 8-0 run to start SSI Smackdown. Patriots undefeated season? :- )
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Your first couple of counterpoints though ... don't know how to respond. It's as if you didn't read the series. Should I paste it in as a reply? ;- )
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1. What sense does it make (for us, through the video available) to even evaluate Hultzen's changeup, much less to say it isn't legit?
2. Recommend you check Fangraphs on Hamels' average velocity. And Bedard's, and the young Zito's. 90 mph is PLENTY for this kind of pitcher.
3. The late-season delta is an interesting little snippet to try to counter the Bedard Syndrome with, but...
Why did Hultzen fan a bunch of guys in 2010, when he was 88?
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I'm wrong about a bunch of stuff, but no way was I wrong about Pineda ;- ) and this one is also shooting fish in a barrel. If Hultzen has 70 command and a 70 change, he's not going to need 93 mph.
2. And the change is his 3rd pitch.
3. 89 mph from a RH is equivalent to 86 from a LH, too.
4. Now I know you didn't grok the series ;- )
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For SURE the Z-Axis RHP is a completely different subject.
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Brett Cecil is:
1. A 3-pitch guy in the Whole Package family
2. With a dubious run value on his changeup
3. With OUT Bedard-like location on the FB
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Nicest finish I can think of .... congrats on your 8-0 start in SSI Smackdown.
:- )
Only responding to the Hamels/Santana comps. Both those guys average over 92mph on their four-seams (the early year data doesn't seperate two-seams for Hamels which he doesn't thow anymore). Santana threw his four-seamer over 93mph in his prime.
Hultzen late season four seam would average 90-91mph. If he had a Santana/Hamels class changeup, his Ks wouldn't have dropped so hard in the 2nd half. He needs that velocity.
I realize Pavano is righty. A lefty prime-Pavano would put up better numbers. I couldn't find an exact comp for a pure lefty. If Pavano threw with his left hand, he'd be the closest.
Both throw four-seams and sinkers that average around 90-91mph. Both have plus changes (although not Santana/Hamels/Lincecum class), both throw sliders. Both are above-average command types that would rather thow give up a hit than a BB.
I know Hultzen also has a curve, but haven't heard high reviews on it.. The Vid was pretty much four-seam, sinker, and changeup.
Cecil is the downside if Hultzen's command wilters a bit with less rest (which is pretty common), but was still an average SP last season. Overall very similar toolbox. Cecil had a plus changeup last year, but is breaking down physically this year.
Which is what we want amigos to do: to find a comp who wasn't any good.
But since when did Brett Cecil have Bedard-like command of his fastball?
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If a pitcher isn't LHP, and doesn't have 70 command, he does not compare here. Hultzen without command is a waste of time.
Does Hultzen have Bedard-like command? Price had great reviews for his fastball command in college (with better numbers in the metal-bat era) and it didn't translate originally to the bigs.
Price has now developed plus command this season, but it took awhile. Price is actually a funny case of why I don't trust scouting report on breaking ball quality. He was advertised as having PLUS PLUS slider with a mediocre changeup. The slider turned out to be so good that it has a terrible run value in bigs and he barely throws it anymore. His changeup is his best secondary pitch now, with the curveball a 2nd.
Because his game will not work the same way if he can't hit four edges of the strike zone.
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Sabermetrics are about analyzing results over tools, and Hultzen's K/BB was crazy in major college - without a big fastball.
I don't believe for a second that he was consistently 92-95 -- if he had a big fastball, the scouts would have had that on the marquee. All the scouts ever did was complain about his velo. Now you're saying he was really James Paxton, but that went under the radar? :- )
The motion looks like 85. He's got ordinary velo, and that K/BB came from somewhere. Where?
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There are some things that scouts get wrong and some they get right. They weren't going to have Cole's velocity wrong. They weren't going to have Ackley's HIT skill wrong.
It's not feasible that they have Hultzen's command or change wrong. The cross-checking, the details on the drop and fade, and the videos rule that out.
especially when you (meaning me) doesn't know a whole lot about Hultzen.
Another name to throw out there is Tom Glavine. I know he was a mid 80's guy towards the end of his career, but he threw harder during his peak. Sandy can speak to Glavine much better than I can, but Glavine made a career out of his two pitches with plus command.
when he threw 92-93 mph in 2004-2006.
Maybe he was the only guy ever to be both :- )
I actually really like that comp. I think Hultzen will get more Ks and probably give up more hits and HRs though. Hes also a higher injury risk.
Trying to think up of the perfect comp, but the best I can come up with is a lefty Pavano..
The one thing that draws me back are the high BABIP and decline in Ks in the 2nd half. It suggest more control, than awesome command (which is why Pavano came to mind).
Hultzen pitched in a pitcher's park, but still gave up a .308 BABIP against college hitters. Bauer is the guy that obsesses about not giving up good contact and had a .253 BABIP.
While maintaining the Bedard pitchability, and --- > the game is broken.
Changeups look too much like FB's coming out of the hand. It ain't like throwing a slider.
Seriously, no exaggeration. You take the young Zito (I just fancy including him and Bedard as Z-Axis-er's; could be wrong) and give him 95 mph and the game becomes a joke.
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It's funny - going down the top 400 pitchers, I don't recognize a single 94 mph lefty who had a deadfish change. Santana may be unique.
A hazy memory of Wilson Alvarez is the closest I could think of, but... seems he was more 89-91 and don't recall how good the change or command was.
91 mph with a plus-plus LH change, that's blinkin' rare enough.
Scouts are talking about Hultzen's change as being the best in this year's draft class...the best in college...the best they've scouted in a long time. Not just a plus change...a plus plus change with Sherrill-class deception and arm action. You're looking at the wrong comps on this one...making a bad assumption about his change-up based on the K rate drop.
Not all 9 K college pitchers are created equal. Hutlzen gets his 9 Ks in the toughtest college division and with a game that will get BETTER in the big leagues than in college...NOT worse. It's a lot easier to keep the metal bats, no matter how they're made, in the zone longer...they have larger barrels and most college hitters swing them more slowly...meaning Hultzen's change will fool fewer ACC bats than it does MLB bats. As well, umps in college suck. Period. Hultzen will benefit from better umpiring and get the Moyer strike zone.
A modest prediction. If his velo is really just 90 mph...and he throws the same change-up...he'll fan 8-9 per game in the big leagues with it assuming he stays at all healthy.
...IS OUTSTANDING IN COLLEGE, taro. The college average BABIP is usually about .350.
Bauer is ridiculously good in that area...and may turn out to be better than Hultzen...absolutely I'd consider him before I took Hultzen (as weould Doc...he put Bauer at 1b and Hutlzen at 1c)...but don't claim that Hultzen's BABIP was bad...it was well above college average.
We remember folks watching Pineda's slider live, in March, and calling it poor... grading the curves and sliders is one of the toughest things...
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Am sure that when Price was given credit for great command, that was within the context of "great command for a high-90's pitcher."
It isn't real tough to grade command for a 90 mph pitcher, IMHO.
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Will give you the last word Taro. Believe I've probably gone point-vs-point with yer plenty 'nuff :- )
Hultzen had the worst BABIP in the Virginia rotation.
Roberts, Wilson, and Winiarski all had BABIPs under .300 (two of them under .290).
Dude was getting blasted. :- )
I obsesed about Hultzen a couple month ago, and I just did not see a Santana/Lincecum/Hamels level changeup in the video. Its plus, but I'm not seeing plus/plus.
That said, deception, arm slot, and plane can add to a pitch's effectiveness even if the break and fade aren't top class so its hard to say definitively that he won't develop a plus-plus change in the future. Thats why you see guys like Cole getting knocked around, and Bauer untouched.
Hultzen does short-arm the ball.. Whats your take on his deception Doc?
His strikeouts weren't down at all, strength of opposition adjusted.
Last outing - three-hit shutout, 12 K's, 1 BB (seven IP)
I count 36 strikeouts in his last 27 innings (12 per game). Those four games were Miami, UNC (Ackley's team), ACC championship, and the NCAA regional. A fade?!
Virginia's schedule and stats
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His strikeouts go from 15 a game early, to 12 per game (over a "sample" of 4 games) as he faces the CWS elite ... and we're building an entire anti-Hultzen argument off of that?
He finished with 148 K's and 17 BB's in 90-odd innings. This "late season fade" debate is not a good use of time.
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:- ) :daps:
Seriously, it reminds me of previous Junes when scouts would move a pitcher (like Daniel Bard) from #3 to #15 literally because of the pitcher's last single game.
Except that Hultzen isn't having off games; he's kicking booty in the playoffs.
Just pointing out hte possibility that its more control than command. Better command usually leads to low BABIPs at the lower levels.
The velocity declined about a month and a half ago and the K/9 went in stiff decline after that (I remember clearly because I was following him closely). I'd have to count up, but he was somewhere around 10 K/9 since then. Had a good last outing sure, but the K/9 definetly dropped hard.
Middle ground on that point.
No concern about late-season velocity loss with 6 days rest in a shortened season combined with a rise hit rate and drop in K/9?
It puts his velocity and stamina into question. You don't know what you're getting until you plug him into a 5-man rotation.
I'm not saying Hultzen's command is problem, I just think its unlikely that its a 70 tool "right" now.
He'll likely have good command right off the bat, but he will throw strikes before giving up a walk. Its probably a mix of command+control right now.
ASSUMING that we had quality data on his velo trend, which we do not ... almost all pitchers deal with fatigue at some point or other.
ASSUMING that Hultzen's velo went from 93 to 90, which I highly doubt, then :shrug: UVA rode him hard and he pitched through it. We're talking like we've never seen a tired pitcher before.
Unless he's injured, he'll show up next spring nice and fresh.
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Bauer, he of the unique training program, apparently gained a little in velo and that's great. We're all ticked we didn't get Bauer, amigo.
Assuming your arguments were correct, and Hultzen needs 94 mph to get K's .... your wish is granted.
Last outing, 12 K's in 7 innings, so you've gotta be thrilled that he's back to 94 at the end of the season. :sigh:
His velocity loss is based off of scouting reports. He came in throwing very hard in the spring making me push for him at #1. I didn't see him in person, but its been mentioned by several different sources.
I guess I'm just not over the Bauer over Hultzen decision yet.. I would have liked Hultzen fine at #7..
I'll drop it Doc. I'm clearly doing more bad than good at this point. We should be getting pumped up about our new #2 pick, not bummed..
The pick just hit me really hard this year and I've yet to recover.. I haven't been able to watch Ms games, but I was on the draft like a fiend since April.. Was hoping the Ms would gamble on Rendon or go for Bauer at SP and it looked like Rendon was 99% in the bag..
It seems there isn't much left to debate about, so I should just start looking at the positives with Hultzen.
And if you weren't holding down the counterpoint on Hultzen, we'd be in danger of groupthink. :- )
No matter how good a Cole Hamels lefty that Hultzen is (or isn't), the elite college hitter and the DiceK Squared guy are painful to miss out on.
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As a side point, I wonder why five (5) teams passed on Rendon. The last decade's drafts have been jammed with college hitters at the top, so we know that the template has huge value with MLB teams. In other years, the Coles and Hultzens have never tempted teams to miss out on the Ackleys.
Something about Rendon specifically that five teams (as a group) didn't care for.
Hultzen kept the sophomore slugger off balance, mixing an effective slider with a fastball that was hitting 95 mph. Baltz went 1-for-4, but struck out the three times he faced Hultzen.
“You read about him and you don’t understand how effective he is until you get in that batter’s box,” Baltz said. “With a guy like him you got to swing early in the count. He located his fastball all night and had a good slider, good change up.”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/4/danny-hultzen-dominates-v...
I could definitely buy the Z-axis concept for Glavine. (Heck, I could buy it for almost the whole Braves rotation during their Golden Age).
Of course, we didn't have pitch-by-pitch velocities back in the day, but I would argue that Z-axis pitching is going to manifest "almost" exclusively in HR-rate, (which the Braves dominated in - during the steroid era no less).
Leo simplified pitcher approaches - and Glavine's was the Prince of Predictability. It was going to be low and away. You might have to guess FB or Curve, but you didn't have to guess location ... because not only did Javy Lopez and Glavine know where the pitch was going ... so did Skip Carey, the fans, the peanut vendors, and most importantly ... the opposing hitter. I mean, at age 25, he won the CY while posting a 0.6 HR/9 (7.0 K/9). The next year, he had a HR rate of 0.2!?! His K-rate that year dropped to 5.2, but he didn't miss a beat, because he gave up a total of 6 HRs in 225 innings. (Bedard gave up 7 in April alone).
A common comment back in the day on TBS was "he changes speed so well". They said it of Maddux and Glavine constantly, (not so much with Smoltz or Millwood). But, think about how HARD that is.
How difficult is it to hit the same spot with the same pitch ... but throw it a couple of MPH faster or slower? I'd suggest a true Z-axis lefty would tend to be very economical with his pitch counts - an anti-Bedard. That definitely describes Glavine.
Fascinating concept. Am sorry that I missed Glavine's career. That's quite a visual ... a ball traveling in on a single clothesline, but at different speeds...
Sabers are just now getting to where they are less unfriendly to the idea that a pitcher can affect his own HR/Fly rate. But when this idea first came out, our initial reaction was that Jamie Moyer could do so.
Any pitcher who works the back and front of the strike zone unusually well, is going to be prone to getting bad swings from the offense... if Glavine and Maddux didn't do that, nobody ever did...