Seattle Sports Insider

Be Afraid: Fist of Fury Dept. (2)

Posted by

5/30/11

Q. Is there any chance that Fister could raise his velo to 90-94 on a consistent basis? :::DROOOOLLL:::

A. Tell you one weird thing: Prior to Monday's velo jump, Fister had just been left out for 113 pitches and a Blown Quality Start (BQS) last time around. Here, let's chart it:

113 pitches, BQS - last start
110 pitches, 8.0 innings - the start before, the 2-1 win over the rodent Angels
107 pitches, 8.0 innings - the start before that, the 4-hitter over Cleveland that League blew

So Hargrove had run Fister out there an extra inning three times in a row -- and then Fister came out prancing into the gate like a thoroughbred racehorse who couldn't wait to run.

Q. How much is due to his motion?

A. Doug Fister has one of baseball's great pitching motions.

On TV tonight, they had a side-by-side of Fister with Jim Palmer. The motions were indeed quite similar, except Fister's was superior. I'll guarantee you.

Earl Weaver wrote in Weaver On Strategy, "Jim Palmer has one of the smoothest, most fluid motions in the history of baseball." It was not as smooth as Doug Fister's is.

And at Fister's height? For a man his height to control his movements like that? It's tear-inducing. A few baseball players look like ballet out there. It's artistic and, for me, watching that level of physical perfection is one of the joys of baseball.

I could go to a football game just to watch Tom Brady stand in the pocket, y'know? It's unpossible, not only his movements, but his attitude. Same with Jack Wilson playing shortstop. Same with Doug Fister. They're heroes in battle, not caring whether they live or die, caring only about doing their duty for those around them.

The Mariners' collective comeback has been heroic, marked by individual heroism, notably that of Felix Hernandez, Doug Fister, Erik Bedard and Jason Vargas. (Michael Pineda's obliviousness to the talent around him is another subject.)

Q. By the way, is Fister's height off the ground -- not his closeness to the hitter -- a real factor?

A. Most ML pitchers release the ball from 67 to 72 inches off the ground. Fister releases the ball from 72 to 84 inches off the ground.

I'd say a typical ML release point is 5' 10" off the ground, and I don't often see them over 6' 0". Fister's averages 6' 6", and sometimes it's 7' 0".

Remember, the 1960's mound was about 5 inches higher than currently. And Fister throws from about 6-9 inches higher than Michael Pineda does.

Q. Is Fister still good in those extra innings?

A. He was dog-tired in the 8th on Monday. Look at the velo chart again. See the velo collapse in the last inning?

But he was still good, yes. It would have been a perfect inning other than for the defense.

Earl Weaver used to consistently leave Jim Palmer out there for one extra inning. He'd tell Palmer, "I know that you're not as good as you are in the first inning. But you're still better than the relievers I got."

Eric Wedge did precisely this on Monday, and it would have worked, except for the defense behind Fister.

........

When we snuffed RRS, Snell, French, Olson etc. and plumped for Doug Fister, the main reasons at the time were:

K/BB within his template
Mechanics --- > projected command
MAKEUP

Fister, totally out of bullets, with an infielder having quit on the game behind him, tore into the Orioles like a Rottweiler defending a steak. He got three bouncing ground ball BIPs and a strikeout.

Slap me SILLY do I love watching this man pitch. Wow! This is what a baseball pitcher should be. A physical freak with a spinal surgeon's demeanor.

Q. What's the point counterpoint? What's the DWN scenario from here?

A. There's no way to put one together.

If he throws his FB on the black, if he drops the hammer, changes pitches - changes speeds - throws strike, he will be effective.

Fister gets splashed when he misses a little over the plate and gives up HR's. His FB can be tater'ed when he's out and over. If you can picture him centering a lot of FB's, fine. I can't...

Q. Percentage chance that Fister throws 90-94 from here?

A. Not good. 20% maybe? But boy, if he does.

Fister's averaging 90.0 now, though, compared to 88 in previous years. And he's got the curve, and the slider in to LHB's.

The Fister one plateau back -- the early-May Fister -- that guy would fan 6.0 men a game and have a shot at being a premium finesse (2.00 BB) pitcher. I'll take that one. You can dream about the 93 mph Orel Hershiser.

What's Fister make, again? He's earning $19M pro-rated. 'Course, Jose Bautista's on pace to earn $63M.

Be Afraid,

Dr D

Comments

Rocky I Montage

In case you didn't see it, in the Geoff Baker writeup of the game:
"I have been putting in a lot of work in the weight room," Fister said. "I've spent a lot of time lifting, conditioning and throwing. So, yeah, I feel a lot stronger this year. I'm in good shape. We'll see where it takes us."
So maybe that's where the durability and increased velocity come from. Roger Clemes comes to mind as a guy who benefitted from a rigorous training regimen (in addition to a little magic pixie dust).

We'll see where it takes us, indeed

Ominous punch line. Thanks for the link GL (and thanks for the laser-targeted questioning again, Geoffy)...............It is too good to be true. I'll believe it when I see it. Because if Doug Fister threw with the authority he did Monday, you amigos have no idea what he'd become...But with his oiled-graphite delivery, if Fister is really in the weight room with the M's new state-of-the-art doctors... there is no reason on paper that he should not be able to build arm strength...As mentioned, Fister has been left out there for fatigue innings several times in a row, and each game he comes back stronger... that is the Bill James "pitcher abuse" theory, that stretching a pitcher out is GOOD for him...If Doug Fister is throwing 90-94 next outing I'm going to be watching the game through a film of tears.Well, j/k. :- ) Actually it would be Joe Maddon watching the game through a film of tears.

If the velocity stays, WOW.

Good stuff on the inter-tubes

I don't know if you've see these articles, but they are interesting and very relevant to Doug Fister, pitcher training, and Felix.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-velocity-loss-phenomenon/
http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2011/05/31/doug-fister-velocity-strikeo...
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-felix-hernandez/

Am really quite surprised

That Doogie's velo increase was caught on Driveline's radar. Us being out here in Alaska and all. Wow.
***
The Velo Loss article was a terrific read. Not least because the guy stated most of my beliefs about pitcher training :- )
It's understandable that ML teams would want to treat a $100M pitcher as if he were lace china. But I bet you it's exactly that, which is risking their investments. Keep a guy on the shelf all winter and for the four-day cycle, and then ask him to go out there on Day 5 and execute the physically near-impossible.
***
IMHO the entire Baseball Prospectus Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) paradigm was a sabermetric cousin to this error. Be gentle with your expensive arm, now...
The main principle I believe in is, don't let the guy throw after he's gassed.

Driveline is located in Seattle

Driveline is in Seattle, so they probably do catch a few M's games.
I think the issue with training and baseball is that it has been done poorly many times without sufficient respect for the need to sustain flexibility. People see Ruben Sierra and then throw the baby out with the bath water.

Ah :- )

That would explain it.

Fister's velocity WAY up today

First two IP, throwing an effortless 91-94 mph in the warm weather referenced by Dr. K.
92 to paint, 94 out-and-over as a challenge pitch (e.g. vs LH Dirks). ... Fister has used the ladder pitch, but not inside the strike zone and not outside 1/3 to lefties. He thinks he's Tom Seaver out there :- )
Sequence vs. Dirks: 0-1, then 0-2 on a challenge fastball fouled straight back (classic overmatch foul tip), then the called 0-3 on a 92 jam pitch thrown directly into Olivo's glove.
:gasp:
The velocity has not cost any movement or much location thus far, but he did shake off Olivo and then give up the base hit on that chintzy little 88 slider that I don't like. Stow the slider, dude.

Fister is starting to look

Fister is starting to look like a TOR starter. This has to be your best call of all-time, Doc.
Fister was a non-prospect just a couple years ago. Nobody could have predicted the velocity spike, but the pitchability is off the charts.