If he can stay at 3B. I don't know that he has enough to play as a 1B. Maybe he does, but for me it's like Poythress - that bat at 3B would be great, but he can't play it, so it's 1B/LF/DH for him, which changes what we need out of his bat. Poythress is trying to make it worth it as he clubs doubles all over the field this year, but asking a 3B to show first-base power numbers is always hard.
Still, Cody holds some interest for me too. :)
As for Rendon... I can't imagine him getting past us, honestly. I can see the Pirates going with an arm instead, based on their hitting situation with Alvarez, but Rendon runs a 4.2 to first base from the RH batters box, plays gold glove caliber D, had more HRs than strikeouts last year...
He's the plus version of David Wright who should be ready to go next year. Maybe we let that go by, but I doubt it. Not when we've got a good staff already and a huge dearth of ML ready hitters. His team's caution with his shoulder injury (mostly to protect him in the draft) isn't a concern to me. His ankles are fine. And since he needs a zone 5 feet wide to hit most of the pitches being thrown in his general direction (as no one will challenge him) he's still doing fine in that department in my estimation.
You don't draft for need necessarily, but when the best player in the draft lines up with a major need for you, I don't see passing it up.
I just hope we get the opportunity.
~G
paracorto asks: what's up with Anthony Rendon's injuries?
The Rice 3b (well, so far in 2011, Rice DH) currently has a shoulder strain, previously he had two ankle injuries (same ankle). Ankle is completely healed, and both were "freak accident" type injuries not considered recurring.
The shoulder strain has kept him from throwing from third base. Originally, it was just supposed to be for a few weeks, but it is going on three months now. Supposedly there are no long-term issues. Impossible to know, but it seems that part of not playing him at 3b is an overabundance of caution (which, given the millions of dollars at stake for the kid, is understandable).
The combination of the injury and reduced SLG has diminished his glow, but my sense from the reports regarding the Mariners is that they still view him as their first choice. He only has 4 HR in 48 G, whereas last year he had 26 in 63 G. But he already has 65 walks. For those just tuning in, the NCAA changed the rules and made college bats considerably less "springy" -- resulting in diminished offensive numbers for almost everyone.
This year's line: .333/.535/.522. Last year's line: .394/.530/.801.
=====
John Sickles of minorleagueball.com has a mock draft out, which also includes the supplemental round.
1. Rendon to Pirates
2. Gerrit Cole (UCLA RHP) to Mariners
3. Danny Hultzen (Virginia LHP) to D-backs
4. Jed Bradley (Ga. Tech LHP) to Orioles
5. Bubba Starling (KS high school OF) to Royals
6. Trevor Bauer (UCLA RHP) to Nationals (but considered as high as 3)
Since he goes through the supplemental round (60 picks), his mock gives a sense of who might be available for the Ms at #62.
There are four injured or recovering-from-injury guys that some of us here have "hoped" (or "wished") would fall as far as #62. No dice on any of them according to Sickles. Andrew Susac, Ore. St. C, gone at #19. Josh Osich, Ore. St. LHP coming off TJ, gone at #27. Matt Purke, TCU LHP who was the "Trevor Bauer" (guy who could challenge Cole for top college arm) at the start of the season before imploding with shoulder issues, gone at #38. And Jackie Bradley Jr., S. Car. CF who led his team to the national championship as a sophomore but now has a wrist injury, gone at #35.
Based on Sickles, G_Money's darkhorse favorite for the #62 slot, IL high school OF Charlie Tilson, would still be there. As would OBF's nominee, another Beaver -- RHP Sam Gaviglio. And my own nominee (but only if Rendon is not the #2), Nebraska 3b Cody Asche. Asche is one of the few with better offensive numbers with the new bats.
=====
A Pittsburgh blogger has the party line from the Pirate brass, but still concludes that they'll pick either Rendon or Cole.
Comments
If Pirates pass on Rendon:
95% chance of Rendon; 5% someone else.
If Pirates take Rendon:
70% chance of Cole; 30% someone else.
But still subject to change.
Spectator says something interesting:
"Impossible to know, but it seems that part of not playing him at 3b is an overabundance of caution (which, given the millions of dollars at stake for the kid, is understandable)"
If I'm not wrong he's also a Boras client, so there's little doubt they're trying to protect (or hidden in the worst scenario) the jewel. I don't know, I don't know really. He showed in the past to be a great talent, a REAL all round player in the Longoria type, perhaps even better. But I remain extremely cautious about his athletic fragility. Freak injuries ? Sure, but they happened in quick sequence in a three-year timespan and I do not like that in a young athlete, especially that kind of injuries (ankle, shoulder) in a position player. Some analyst has just begun to write he's slipping backward and there's still almost one month left, so I suppose any club interested in Rendon is going to investigate deeper his physical situation before paying what could be one of the largest bonus ever.
I absolutely expect them to try to protect Rendon, and for whomever might draft him to look very carefully at the medical charts.
But Rendon broke his one ankle by stepping in a hole on a terribly maintained warning track, and broke his other in a freak run-down injury.
He strained his shoulder stretching. That sounds the fragility alarm a little, but it's never happened to him before.
After his first ankle injury he came back at full speed and strength, and he's at full speed again - his lower body is working fine.
I don't believe his power shortage this year is because of his shoulder, I believe it's because he can't get anything to hit. The steroid version of Barry Bonds might be able to see one pitch an at bat that's within a foot of the plate and hit it for a HR, but college-age mortals with power-deadening bats can't do that.
I am not worried about Rendon at all...but it's not my 10 million in bonus money that we're talking about. I think Rendon's gonna be in the Wright/Zimmerman/Longoria class of hitter, with a chance to surpass even that.
Longoria hit 11 HRs with metal bats in his best college season.
Zimmerman hit 6 in HIS best season.
Rendon hit 26 with the same bats.
I'm not worried about his power shortage with the new bats and the shoulder tweak any more than I was worried Longoria wouldn't hit for good enough power.
I'm hoping the Pirates are worried though. Be VERY afraid, Pittsburgh, don't take the risk.
~G
Rendon's shoulder issues make his prospect status really hard to evaluate.
How much of the lost power is because of the shoulder and how much because of the metal bats? How about the increase in Ks? Is a guy who sustains a major injury due to stretching, going to be able to stay healthy over 162 games?
The BBs are still there, the defensive ability is still there, and we've seen him hit for power before this season. I'd take him over Cole 100 times out of 100 and hes still #1 on my board for now (although the injuries have me shaky on that).
Cole is the guy I'm hoping we avoid. Seems very overrated because of the early Strasburg hype.
"Is a guy who sustains a major injury due to stretching, going to be able to stay healthy over 162 games?"
That's the key question IMO. The latest buzz is rotator cuff.
That "buzz" is because Jason Churchill decided to speculate in an ESPN article that Rendon had a torn rotator cuff, then deleted it. It's like trolling, only for more readers due to controversial comments. Simple rumormongering that's given dubious credibility by having a national publication backing the baseless supposition.
Spare me Jason's medical musings. It's not like hiding it would help Rendon's draft stock, since he's gonna be gone over by outside experts anyway - which means it would have to be a newly formed diagnosis. If Rendon has a torn rotator cuff and no one's figured it out yet then everyone on Rice's medical staff should be fired.
They won't be because they didn't miss it. Though if Rendon could hit like this with a torn rotator cuff then he'd absolutely be my choice for our #2 pick. Anybody who can still be a formidable hitter with only one good arm is my choice with two healthy ones.
But Jason could have said he might have bone spurs or be suffering from early arthritis with as much basis as his "torn rotator cuff" theory. Before the Ms draft him, they'll know if it's a concern - and none of those things will be.
~G
that it's possible that Rice already diagnosed him with a partially torn rotator cuff, and decided to let him swing but not throw. Adrian Gonzalez went through that last year I believe, and was fine because as a 1B he wasn't throwing the ball anywhere. It wouldn't hurt Rendon's long-term prospects.
*shrugs* It's not a concern to me either way, I just dislike Churchill's "I wonder if it could be" approach. I can do that - I just talk on message boards to amuse myself. He's supposed to be a journalist.
~G
I heard on the Pirates board that the agent chooses whether or not the medical records are released and that Boras never releases those records for draftees. Does anyone know if thats the case.
If that's all it was, a guess that the rotator cuff might be involved, that would deserve to be rebuffed. A quick-delete was probably wise for somebody trying to build national credibility.
If Rendon is really 'a fast David Wright' or 'a better Evan Longoria' or whatnot, I'd be tempted to take him #1 even if I thought he'd be out a year, which it would not... even if it were a rotator cuff, you're looking at surgery this summer and his being 100% well before next spring...
We don't notice that it cost AGone (or Sexson) any money... exciting 'buzz' though I guess...
So Boras likes to hide medical reports? Surely that doesn't mean that teams have to draft players and give them contracts without physicals?
M's last big international sign did get his contract first, and then have to renegotiate after the physical, though...
G, I always respect very much your opinions and points of view and without any doubt I'd say to agree with your thoughts about JAC and PI. Missing any official information at present I stay with my serious doubts about Rendon stamina. Of course his skills are so good that he might deserve anyway to be drafted that high. I still believe he's too risky but if I'm wrong the future prize would be fantastic for any team. Can I imagine what a mix of Longoria/Zimmermann/Wright could be ? Yes, I do and I really hope to be wrong and that he's going to become the cornestone of the M's lineup for many years.
It's hard to say he'd be a faster David Wright (even though I was guilty of it before) because even though foot-speed wise he's faster, Wright is a 78% base-stealer and has a shot at the 300-300 club. I'd say he's a better fielder but Wright's won 3 gold gloves. And Wright's power numbers are about what I think Rendon can put up.
David Wright is just a phenomenal baseball player. He makes me angry every time I see him, because the Mariners took Michael Garciaparra one pick before Wright was drafted. *laughs*
David might not be the first pick in that draft if there were a re-draft today - Mauer and Teixeira were both in it. But he'd be in the conversation. If someone wanted to take that draft and do it over there would be a huge debate on Wright at the hot corner versus Mauer's failing knees and Tex's slightly better bat at a non-glove position.
Wright is on track to be a hall of famer at one of the least-represented positions: 3B. Sayin someone should be "better" than that is a ludicrously high standard. What, being David Wright somehow isn't good enough now and he should be Mike Schmidt? Like I said, I've been guilty of hyperbole on Rendon, but I don't think the Mets hot-corner man is a bad comp.
I think Rendon is a David Wright - a heart of the order hitter, a gold glove defender, a good baserunner, a team leader...with maybe an extra tick of ability in a couple of those areas.
And unlike a Nick Franklin that we're hoping can contribute in a few years, I think he's on the Zimmerman/Longoria "500 plate appearances and put him in the bigs" timeframe.
Which is one of many reasons that I want to draft him. :) The shoulder doesn't take the shine off it at all for me. If he'd had a wrist destroyed on an inside pitch or something I might be concerned, but his shoulder issue isn't a thing. Bagwell had arthritis in his shoulder so bad he couldn't throw at the end of his career but he could still hit.
Rendon's a hitter, and hitters hit - and this injury isn't serious.
~G
Heard parts of an interview that Mitch and Sandmeyer had with Rendon. Usually Mitch is a good interviewer but this time he just didn't have his research done prior.
Rendon is a very likable, humble guy who did a good job of handling himself with somewhat idiotic statements. They didn't ask him about his injuries but focused on how he is not having a very good season and could the bats be part of the reason.
Apparently Churchill is saying that Rendon is no longer at the top of the draft board. I think scouts from other organizations are taking liberties with Churchill's relative lack of experience dealing with the inner workings of the draft. A month before the draft reporters should take every comment from a scout with a grain of salt.
Hoping we still draft Rendon. What a concept it will be to have to draft a position player who is both good defensively and offensively at the top of the draft.
If Rendon has really some physical troubles my personal choice is Trevor Bauer - without any doubt. Smart pitchers usually make history.
I do not want to be misunderstood but just to make clear how serious can be ankle injury
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/05/11/angels-morales....
Ankles are very delicate and that kind of injuries can be troubling for sportsmen (Marco Van Basten had to quit playing soccer in his prime, just to make a well known example, but we could remember Robin Ventura as well)
Once he retired just to walk around without a cane. But he still posted plus numbers even with his leg decaying under him. Jason Kendall busted his ankle in a horrifying injury and has played many more years on it, as a catcher no less.
But Rendon says he has no pain, he runs great...we can't see him play defense but that's because of his arm. He's not limping around the basepaths, that's for sure.
Kendry needed cleanup surgery and has not taken the field since. Rendon is sprinting around like a gazelle. Ankle surgery can definitely be a tricky thing, but once it's done unless the bone died it's just surgery with a defined recovery time and prognosis based on recovery. We've already seen the results on the field to know his legs are fine.
Will he be more prone to ankle injuries later? Depending on how ripped up those tendons and ligaments were, maybe. But the bone issue is done with at this point. Maybe he needs some chips or spurs removed later.
Mickey Mantle had bad knees, Mauer has bad knees, Ventura almost lost his leg...
I don't care as much how Rendon feels at 35, to be honest with you. I just want to know what he can do for us for the 6-7 guaranteed years we'll have him...and I think it's a lot. :)
~G
I'm at the point where I could see either Rendon or Bauer at the #2. Bauer more of a sure thing, Rendon with a tad more risk+upside.
Please DO NOT draft Gerrit Cole though. Glorified closer. Hes had 3 years to figure out low A hitting and it hasn't happened.
I'd want to be very careful with this draft. 5 years ago there was an "amazing" pitching draft as well, with just one lone college bat worth drafting high.
The order:
#1: Hochevar - has sucked
#2: Reynolds - has sucked
#3: Longoria - the lone plus-plus college hitter is tremendous
#4: Lincoln - sucks
#5: Morrow - bullpen, rotation, mostly suck with lots of Ks
#6: Miller - sucks
#7: Kershaw - HIGH SCHOOL arm, made good so far
#8: Stubbs - outfielder who's been all right, actually
#9: Rowell - high school 3B who's been atrocious in the minors
#10: Lincecum - 2 Cy Youngs and a World Series ring
#11: Scherzer - decent starter, not a frontliner yet
--------------------------
That looks a LOT like this draft. I expect 2 HS bats in the first 10 picks, Rendon, and the rest are pitchers. The most under-rated one currently is the guy pitching like Lincecum, Rendon's a near-clone of Longoria with better college power, and the "consensus" top arm...
in 2006 it was Miller in college or Hochevar who'd held out for more money, and in 2011 it's Cole. Both Miller and Hochevar have spent 5 years epically flopping around with similar profiles to Cole.
I want either the bat or the freak - Rendon or Bauer. We skipped on the freak last time to our lasting regret. As I continue to be underwhelmed by Cole's results with his supposedly-dominant stuff...
I'm definitely getting 2006 deja vu.
~G
I wonder whether 'Z' is also playing a stealth or even misdirection game here. Not wanting to show who he wants to draft, Z tends to play his cards close to the vest. I can see Z not wanting to let other teams know who he plans to draft.
"it's just surgery with a defined recovery time and prognosis based on recovery..."
That's probably true for me, you and any normal people working behind a desk or driving a car. Here we're talking about the highest levels in sports and even if baseball is not exactly a contact sport there're still many stressing situations especially involving articulations (knee, ankles, shoulder, elbow). Mickey played a whole career with just one leg and a half and obviously I'm not much interested in what Rendon is going to do in ten years fron now but if -- and I repeat IF -- his injuries are a symptom of a particular athletic fragility he might face serious troubles in ten months instead. Hope to be completely wrong both for the kid's fortune and for the pleasure to watch a great baseball player for many years.
I'm thinking the same.. This reminds me of the year we took Morrow over Lincecum.
None of the college arms interest me beyond Bauer. It is traditionally the WORST return rate of any type of prospect including highschool pitching prospects (as the '06 draft shows).
Cole is riding the early Strasbug-hype. Hot fastball, no command, ineffective secondary stuff, questionable mechanics. His projected draft postion is based more on scout justification than actual prospect status IMO. Hultzen had a shot, but after his velocity regressed a couple weeks ago (and seeing the poor mechanics), hes no longer even in the discussion. The rest are just not as interesting. Mediocre combination of stuff/results.
I would honestly rather draft Dylan Bundy than Gerrit Cole. Better secondary stuff, better results, better command, comparable fastball. His mechanics are awful and I don't want a highschool SP at #2, but he is one of multiple guys I'd rather pick than Gerrit Cole.
There are guys like Bubba, Lindor, Bundy, or Springer that could end up being elite players in the draft, but you want to limit the bust% at #2.
I really think the top 2 at this point are clearly Bauer and Rendon. I want to land either one.
Peter Gammons writes:
There is no consensus on the best college starter, as there was with Stephen Strasburg in 2009. UCLA's Gerrit Cole was the preseason poster boy, but he has been outperformed by teammate Trevor Bauer. Some think the Pirates will take Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen. Georgia Tech's Jed Bradley is a sure top-10 selection. Connecticut's Matt Barnes will be in the top half of the first round. And all of a sudden Kentucky's mammoth Alex Meyer has come fast, out-pitching Vanderbilt's Sonny Gray last weekend with the stands packed with scouts.
As for Rendon, keep in mind that Rice plays for a national championship every year. (Go Rice!) Coach Wayne Graham is like 130 years old, and he has no problem having his players play at 80% with pain or run his pitchers into the ground - see Owls 2004 draft of Humber(#3), Niemann(#4), Townsend(#8)
http://blog.chron.com/owls/2011/04/video-rendon-discusses-shoulder-injur...
I see Rendon as playing hurt, but no one seems to think he can do long-term damage to the shoulder. I keep hoping he falls to the M's at #2 so we can have a second Rice Owl on the roster, and the first fielder since Jose Cruz Jr.
Bauer another complete game 13 Ks.
I'm trying to figure out why Bauer shouldn't be #1 or #2 along with Rendon. It's almost exactly Lincecum redux.
Funny thing is, I keep reading that he's undersized, but the dude is listed at 6-2. I guess if league average is 6-3, then technically he is, but c'mon.
Bauer's 7th complete game in a row.
9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K
Ks a little low for his standards, but thats nitpicking. Cole has been solid the past couple starts though still not striking guys out.
He has accepted the burden of very sophisticated mechanics, and he's getting it done every single start. That's impressive.
He's firing a .275 Weatherby elephant gun with more accuracy than Cole with his 30-06 deer rifle.
It looks like your boy Trevor Bauer is a hot commodity these days. Good call there. With any luck we snag Anthony Rendon and fore go the eeny meeny miney moe process with the pitching, which is the reason that this draft is highly reguarded as one of the stronger draft classes. BBA is still sticking to it's guns on Cole, which may be a little hard headed at this point. Fingers crossed for Rendon though, which looked impossible a month ago. Two weeks and counting.
keeps one's focus above the ebb-and-flow variations of the day.
And sometimes it's just stupid. :-)
Nevertheless, I stick to my lonely guns. In my opinion, Cole has more upside than Bauer and, except for 2 or 3 outings, has had a better college season. He actually may be the underrated one now.
[I'm envisioning Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley next year for the Lions -- and that's what Taro and G-Money will be like, pouncing on me like I'm Eli Manning with a twisted ankle. :-) ]
That being said, I have always said Rendon first if he's there, and I am warming to the idea of HS position player if Rendon is gone and/or determined to be too big of a medical risk (therefore bypassing the college pitcher argument altogether).
Cole HAS a great arm. I don't think he's gotten the most out of that arm, and I see him having a rocky road to success in the bigs, but that could be COMPLETELY wrong. Upside Max Scherzer, downside Luke Hochevar, basically.
I would take at least three prospects before Cole, based on what I've seen to this point:
1) Rendon, aka David Wright
2) Bauer, aka Tim Lincecum (lite, but who's all of Lincecum?)
3) Starling, aka clean Josh Hamilton
It's not that a decent chance of getting Max Scherzer is a BAD thing. And if Cole gets by us he's not getting a lot further - I don't see him slipping out of the top 5.
But I prefer hitters to pitchers, and I think Bauer can be ready NOW while I think there's be a time delay to Cole at this point.
If we draft Cole, then I will defer to you and hop on the "Cole's under-rated and a total dominator" bandwagon and cheer for the best possible outcome.
But I'd take other guys over him. Hopefully the Pirates don't, so we don't even have to debate it. ;)
~G
I'm trying to figure out how I should even think about Rendon. Depending on how you explain his health and performance in 2011, he could be anything from a star to a bust. Hypothetically, suppose that Rendon's 2011 is representative of his ability, and that injuries, for instance, are not driving his disappointing year. If that's true, what type of hitter are we projecting? Is that a slower Ackley, with maybe a little more power and defense? .300/.400/.450/15HR? Just trying to see what it would mean if assumptions of the pessimists are right. Is this a good way to be thinking about it?
Jim Callis: I'm not going to have the best answer to this, because I don't see how a team could think that the shoulder strain hasn't impacted his bat speed and swing. If he were in pro ball, Rendon would have sat out and gotten healthy and been fine. In college, he has gutted through it at less than his best to help his team. I'm not a doctor, nor a scout, but I'm believing in the 100-percent healthy Rendon we saw as a freshman and a sophomore. That guy was a stud.
Sounds about right.
Sports is about entertainment, and while I'd love to have the quick return of a college kid like Rendon, Lindor is the guy I want on my team.
If you have never read this BA article, please do so. Whether the Ms draft him or not, I will always root for him as he is my kind of player, and more importantly, human being.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/high-school/events/aflac-all-americ...
Bauer 14 Ks, 8th straight CG.
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 14 K
Cole with another medicore outing yesterday. The #2 pick has to be either Rendon or Bauer. You don't want to overthink it.
in the last month.
Rendon, then Bauer, then Starling for us. Since we're drafting #2, we never have to get to Starling, but if we don't WANT a pitcher, then Starling's my other bat preference assuming Rendon goes to Pittsburgh.
If I was a betting man now, though, I'd say Hultzen will go to Pitt and we'll have our pick of all those guys. Bauer's a machine this year, just a flat-out machine. I'm leery of any pitcher with a pick that has great hitters available, but I would still smile if Bauer's name is called. He's incredible.
~G
Gotta take the best player available. Bauer or Rendon. I really want one of those two and would actually feel safer with Bauer.
Starling has great upside, but high risk. At #3 he would be interesting, but I wouldn't want to pass on either of those guys for him.
Not just with the Lincecum simulation, but also in that he's a modern-day Mike Marshall between the ears.
I want Rendon, but that's the minor point. The major one is that I don't want the M's to take somebody other than Rendon or Bauer.
Agreed, Doc. Just nab one of 'em. I think Bauer is an even safer bet than Rendon, but if healthy Rendon is still #1 on my board.
Tremendous article on Bauer. His obsession over analyzing pitching, his competitive nature, his perfectionism, and not fitting in during highschool:
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_18164611
"I think I'm more of a scientific mind," Bauer said. "My dad is an engineer, and that's how I grew up, so I look at baseball as a science. And I'm a perfectionist, too. So I look at it as, `How am I going to perfect at this?'
"When I'm out there and I give up a hit, it's like, that's not acceptable. I look at it from the scientific view, whether it's delivery mechanics, the way to sequence pitches, how the ball spins based on the seams. I'm always trying to master those nuances. That's what excites me. That's what gets me going as a person.
"I'm not superstitious at all,": Bauer continues. "The `Baseball Gods,' the eye-black, the whole wearing the same sliding shorts while you're on a roll, getting rid of your hat, whatever all that stuff is, that's never clicked with me. I just don't understand how wearing the same hat when you're in the dugout is going to affect what's on the field. I'm not a believer in it. I'm more of a scientist out there, looking to try to master the game, be as close to perfect as I can."
"It's amazing now," he said. "I can watch baseball games at the big-league level and I can say, 'OK, it's a 2-2 count; if he throws a fastball away, he's going to get a hit; if he throws a fastball in, he's going to pop up; if he throws a breaking ball in, he's going to strike out; if he throws breaking ball away, he's going to roll over it.' The majority of the time, it happens."
Competitiveness and perfectionism:
"There are some things I wanted to do this year, and I think I've done a few of them, but the one thing I haven't done - call me crazy - is strike guys out as well as I should've,"
"They put the ball in play 19times today - that means the defense had to make nine-teeeeen outs," Bauer said, in disgust.
"When I get in situations like that, I get the ball back and before I step on the mound, I just turn everything off, and I get locked in," Bauer said. "I hate giving up runs. I haaaate it. If a guy hits a home run off me, fine, whatever. Not fine, but I can deal with it. When a guy gets on base, and someone gets a hit to score him, I can't stand that. When guys are on base, I get locked in on the me-you, me-against-the-hitter mentality. I hate losing. In those situations, I'm going to beat you. When I do it's a release. I was so locked in, I have to come back to reality. It just kind of ... comes out."
Another aricle:
http://www.foxsportsarizona.com/05/28/11/UCLA-ace-Bauer-wants-to-be-a-Di...
His coach:
"Those were the two best curveballs I've been around. Zito has the best left-handed curve I've seen and Trevor has the best right-handed curve I've seen," Savage said.
"He's got multiple swing-and-miss pitches. I can tell you this: He's as good as I've seen with two strikes. Deception. He sequences pitches. You're talking about throwing the same pitch out of the same tunnel and making every pitch look the same. He's really into that. He's a firm believer of connecting this pitch to the next pitch to the next pitch. I think that's why he gets so many swings and misses. You saw a pretty complete guy tonight."
Molding himself on Tim Lincecum:
"Right about the time I was learning about momentum to the plate and using arm action was the time he (Lincecum) came up with the Giants. So I looked at a guy who was 5-10 on a good day and when when he came up throwing 97-98 (mph) out of that frame and I said he has to be doing something right. So I watched as much video as I could on him and tried to pattern myself after him.
"I personally think he has the best mechanics in the big leagues. He's the most efficient. I don't buy into the over-torquing. The more you torque and use your body and the stronger muscles on your body, the less stress you put on your arm. I actually think that's preferable to the guys who are using mostly arm."
Wow. Some of those quotes could be from Greg Maddux.
And some of the comments about him read like comments about Randy Johnson back in the day.
Forget his quirks, which draw ire just because they're different, and anything different in baseball is bad, dirty, unforgivable. No, Bauer adds to that a gamesmanship that incites fury. He sneers, he scoffs, he taunts. He chuckles at himself for making a mistake. He gets into it.
High School Musical? The kid pumps heavy metal in the UCLA clubhouse, to the dismay of his teammates.
I want this guy. He'll have a dual role as pitching coach before he reaches arbitration if the M's are half as smart as this guy...
At least not at #2.
It's great that he can pitch 135 pitches Every. Single. Game. After. Game. After. Game.
But why does he have to if his stuff is so unhittable? Where are his ruthlessly efficient 100-pitch demolition jobs? He doesn't have any.
Double-digit Ks every single time is cool, but it bugs me that he seems so enamoured with racking up the big K stats that he throws a ginormous number of pitches every game. And it bugs me that his coach lets him. And it bugs me that with the weak-sister bats, he can't just get guys out without thowing all those pitches.
Maybe it translates to MLB, but it doesn't strike me as "sure thing."
And Lincecum is a gymnast -- Ichiro on the mound -- Bruce Lee, to use Doc's example today. It's fine that Bauer wants to be like Lincecum, but how does that make it a "sure thing"? He's four inches taller and 20 pounds heavier.
I like his smarts and stuff, too. But if I were a smart college kid who stood to make millions, I'd "re-brand" and hype myself as "Timmy 2.0" too. And, seriously, the answer to every question is "no worries -- he's Timmy 2.0."
I'm not saying it's all hype, but I think there's too much chance to take at #2. Maybe in other years, but not when we'd be passing on other top-level talent to take him.
Sorry. Not meaning to sound snarky, but I don't buy in at #2. Like everyone else, I hope it will all be moot and we get Rendon.
Any more than (say) Franklin Gutierrez could become Ichiro by imitating him...........That said, one interesting sound byte here Spec... UCLA's coach complains that Bauer is constantly fiddling around with hitters, cat-and-mouse, "using 7 pitches" to torture them when 3 would do... he's sitting there rolling his eyes, going "C'mon Trevor, just put him away wouldja..."I can buy this to a certain extent... it's the difference between a coupla offspeed nibble pitches vs. a ladder fastball or a heater that saws the hitter off (well, okay, guess you can't saw college hitters off)...Nobody is Lincecum, but Bauer offers quite the mad scientist cooking up 175 strikeouts in his lab ... :- )
I'm just anti-Bauer at #2. And I'm against the notion that Bauer is gold-plated and Cole a giant risk. That's the notion that I keep reacting to.Cole has (I think) Verlander-level stuff (and I'm not the only one who thinks so) AND fewer than 2.0 BB/9. This in his "off year." Find me that combination in more than a handful of guys.In his "off year" he cut his BB/9 IN HALF from 3.8 to 1.9.In his "off year" his ERA is 3.28, which is lower than Verlander's season before he was taken #2 overall (3.49).G had a nice post that seems to have disappeared, in which he acknowledged that both Cole and Bauer were risky, and that's the kind of balance that I haven't seen enough of. He prefers Bauer, and that's fine.I, myself, am warming to the idea of Lindor as Plan B. (Plan B only to activated if Pirates take Rendon or there is a very bad medical report.)
The flavor-of-the-month syndrome goes more and more epidemic as the draft gets ever closer...What do you like about the Lindor choice there Spec?
Yeah - it's funny. Young Randy Johnson used to do exactly the same thing. He wanted to strike every single batter out and he didn't care if it took 160 pitches to do it.
Yeah, in one of the interviews that Taro linked... Bauer had fanned like 14 (?) guys and he was emphatic. "How many strikeouts did I leave out there? Eight, ten?""If I get 18 outs and the defense gets nine, that's less chance for them to make an error."Which Chone Figgins would just love hearing in Bauer's first ST, you know :- )The guy is just a laugh riot. What I wouldn't give to watch a pitcher who lived for K's ... a guy with a Dizzy Dean attitude and a Mike Marshall brain.
Bauer is more like Bedard or Moyer stylistically than Lincecum. He purposely avoids solid contact. High Ks tend to lead to high pitch counts as well, and when you're throwing 8 CGs in a row that'll lead to a lot of pitches.
IMO this is a good thing. As he goes up the ladder, more batters will start making contact with those pitcher's pitches and the pitch counts will naturally go down. His pitching is well fit to succeed at the MLB level because he tries to avoid good contact.That approach is much more likely to succeed at the big league level than chucking strikes down the pipe with little speed differential.
Cole's low BB rate isn't a representation of command, it just a representation of here-it-is-hit-it type control. So far the college hitter have managed to hit him. He has the worst ERA on the UCLA rotation and has given up the most XBHs. A 3.28 ERA is below average in the new bat-age. Strikeouts haven't changed much, but hits and XBHs are down.
Verlander ran a 13 K/9 in his walk year. Cole is barely above 9 K/9. Verlander had great mechanics, Cole has a high-risk motion. Verlander had more speed seperation in his offspeed pitches and he had strikeout stuff. The only similarities are that they are both RH and throw really hard.
I'd cap his upside at Max Scherzer and thats if he can figure out more speed separation between his offspeed pitches. Even if I knew I had a 100% chance at Max Scherzer, I would not take that at #2. And Cole is more like 30% shot at Max Scherzer.
Its nothing personal Spec.. I'm just not that high on Cole as a prospect. The guy is putting up the worst numbers in UCLA's rotation, is high-risk to get injured, has command issues, and serious problems with his offspeed. If velocity were all there were to pitching, we could trade David Aardsma straight-up for Cliff Lee.
I prefer Bauer by a sizable margin. He is the only pitcher I'd consider at #2. Bundy has talent worthy of being top 3 (more than Cole IMO), but dreadful mechanics make him too high-risk.
But yeah, ALL pitchers have inherent risks. Bauer is throwing a lot of pitches and is in love with the strikeout, no argument at all.
He's also the filthiest pitcher going right now. I agree with Taro, Cole's ERA in the new dead-bat college era is not stellar. His walks are down because he's not afraid of anyone taking him yard and he's pumping the pitches into the zone...but they're HITTABLE pitches.
Nobody's hitting anything Bauer is throwing. I would probably take Bauer or Hultzen before Cole - I really do get a Hochevar/Scherzer vibe from Cole, and that's a lot of risk, and a lot of delayed gratification even if successful, for our #2 pick.
Maybe Cole stays healthy, Bauer throws his elbow to the backstop, and even if Bauer had been the "better" pitcher he's not the one with the most impact. Mark Prior was the "best" pitcher in the 2001 draft but not the one with the longest career or most impact.
I want the bat. I want the Pirates to do what the Pirates usually do - screw up the draft. Pedro Alvarez doesn't really have the pop to play first base, and I hope they're figuring this out and will maximize that pick by leaving him at 3B, skipping the "injury risk" that is Rendon, and going with an arm. Take Hultzen, he's a polished pro.
But if they don't...I'd rather not take Cole. I don't hate him, and I wouldn't scream in agony or anything. I just don't trust him.
I didn't trust Taijuan Walker either, and that's working out fine right now. Give me a redraft of the 2010 draft and Walker goes higher. The Mariners seem to know what they're doing with the draft process, so unlike with Bavasi I'll believe they know something about Cole that I don't, if we take him.
But I don't expect to take him.
~G