G-Money sez,
6 IP, 12K for Mister Paxton tonight - all swinging. 5 ground outs to one fly out. On the year in A-ball:
1st outing: 5 IP, 4 hits, 4BB/6K
2nd outing: 5 IP, 5 hits, 4BB/3K
3rd: 6 IP, 6 hits, 4BB/10K
4th: 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 3BB/7K
5th: 6 IP, 3 hits, 2BB/12K
I agree with Spec - promotion definitely coming. Probably up to AA, skip the Cal League entirely once he feels stretched out, in command of his pitches, and comfortable.
So, like...now. ;)
~G
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=== Call 'Im Up, Dept. ===
Definitely Paxton has showed the star-class stuff that the SSI crowd expected out of the box. Early on, the control issues (and rust) were evident. Pheenom stuff and a little rust - that was the best case scenario, and the M's got it.
Now K-Pax has already kicked off quite a bit of the rust. Well, that took 'im long enough, eh?
He could go to AA for his next start. Will be interesting to see how long the M's wait on the AA promo. What's the benefit to waiting?
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=== Houston, We Have Confirmation ===
That's one easy, but indispensable, hurdle passed for K-Pax. Houston, we have visual confirmation that James Paxton is the fast-track Probable Star that he looked like this March.
All systems go, so far for 25 starts this year, and then the M's rotation next April.
Modern college pitching stars don't need 50 starts in the minors. They need 25. Paxton is probably going to be ready for the big leagues next spring. The spectre of a second Pineda lurks, gentlemen.
Well, not that good, but y'know.
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=== Upside ===
Here are 36 seconds on Paxton's pre-draft stock. Here is SSI's March series on Paxton as a prospect. Here is SSI's series on Paxton's gorgeous pitching motion, filmed by our Johnnie-on-the-Spot hero Lonnie Mathis.
At one time, Paxton was being considered for the top 10, because he was touching 98 mph and there was the very real possibility of a CC Sabathia career.
He had 115 strikeouts and 20 walks as a senior, and Paxton has one of baseball's great pitching motions. You are not talking about Taijuan Walker here.
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The ONLY reason that Paxton was available to the Mariners was because --- > teams did not know what the layoff would do to him. Now they know!
If MLB teams had known what they know now, Paxton would have been right back in the top 5-10 picks in the draft. Hey, if he were in this year's draft, showing what he has now shown, he'd be argued with Cole and Bauer and Hultzen.
C'mon. Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen is projected #3 overall, this year. He throws 90 mph. Do you pick Hultzen over James Paxton at 96 mph?
.
Let's say you had a little common sense ;- ) and you did take James Paxton #2 in this year's draft. You think you could sign him to the contract he currently has?
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=== 2012 Rotation ===
Easy for a fan to say, "well, we'll worry about 2012 when we get there." But a serious business plan doesn't work that way.
At the trade deadline -- better yet, this winter -- if he can get Jesus Montero for a pitcher, Jack Zduriencik has to be thinking about what happens if Mark Mulder is in his March 2012 training camp.
You can't just say, "well, it's a nice problem to have," and pass on some Jesus Montero or somebody, because you're thinking lazily.
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We'll leave it to somebody else to figure out a Way Draft Business Plan for the 2012 rotation if -- probably when -- James Paxton is one of the American League's 12-to-25 best starters next year. In this case, the trade would probably occur over the winter...
Supposing that a grateful Erik Bedard is running a 3.00 FIP and he wants to give the M's a smokin' deal? What's the 2012 rotation?
Let's say you have these conditions this winter:
Throwing one of the six TOR's* overboard for nothing, just telling Erikkk "G'Bye!," is not my idea of exploiting that chess position.
How do you exploit it?
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Life's good,
Jeff
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assuming he bought into a hot Paxton and assuming he signs off on a hometown Erik deal...
We imagine would be to package St. Louie's choice of Vargas or Fister with ? to get Pujols ... :- )
Would have to be done during the season, though... and might require trading owners as well as players...
Presumes that a rookie's place is in long relief...
Earl would bury the kid in the minors for two months in 2012, bring him up into the bullpen for two more months, and enjoy the insurance it provided him to have 6 impact SP's...
Not sure if kids like Paxton accept that any more, whether you'd get crying over what it does to Paxton's mechanics and rhythm etc...
The Pujols route being a 10, and the Weaver route being a 1 on the aggressiveness scale :- )
They're leading their division so they'll be focused on taking advantage of thier one last chance at glory. If anything they'll add a big name player.
But I would have him in the bullpen this year, with him sliding into the rotation when Pineda gets shut down in September.
The Pujols stuff isn't going to happen and he's not a fit for this team anyway. He's not a west-coast kind of guy, we already have a first baseman, he's going to cost approximately fifty-five jillion dollars per microsecond, etc.
I would call Paxton up and plug him in as my closer. Now. Right this instant. And then I would work on stretching him out to start next year.
I was among those wondering why Paxton was assigned to Clinton to start the year instead of AA (I don't think anybody wanted to traumatize him at High Desert). I thought, "Soft landing to shake off the rust." and left it at that. It seemed a sufficient reason. But take a look at this:
"The catcher [Steven Baron] and I were on the same page," Paxton said. "I was mixing the curve and change and keeping those guys guessing." -from David Heck's coverage of his last start.
Recently, I've come to see the value of a catcher's game-calling. Dr. D pointed this out in his Gimenez/Vargas piece but I've seen precious little of this aspect of the game expressed anywhere else. Save in derision in the form of denegrating CERA.
I've even seen Harrison Crow, an author I've come to respect, express the desire to dump Olivo, start Gimenez, and bring up Bard as a backup based soley on his hitting numbers on THIS year. As if the pitcher/catcher aspect were de-coupled from a catcher's value. (Not to mention track record, but I digress...)
Washburn threw Kenji under the bus 'cause he didn't like throwing to him. Rob Johnson sticks in the bigs because pitchers love throwing to him. This is a BIG part of the game that is getting overlooked and should be considered as a part of Olivo's value.
So getting Paxton and Steve Baron on the same page had to have been a critical deciding factor in deciding where Paxton was to have been assigned to start the year. I'm starting to realize that there are 2-3 aspects in a decision such as this that I'm routinely missing.
Obviously that comment by the author of this blog was tongue-in-cheek. Assume sarcasm not stupidity.
Not sure where you got that. This is not the first time I've heard Ms fans clamoring for Pujols though...I was responding to that general line of thought.
Don't forget you have another guy who they thought so highly of they brought him all the way from low-A to the Majors.
Wilhelmsen hasn't shown too much so far this year, but he also stated that he's never had a chance to find his rhythm and was anxious to get on a starter's routine.
You don't give a guy a shot like that unless you think pretty highly of his arm. And, even though he's older, he's still under club control just like any other rookie.
The Red Sox and Yankees already have expensive first baseman locked up for years and they are the only teams with more money to spend than the M's. The competition for him won't be as fierce as it might seem for a player of his caliber and whether he truly isn't a "West Coast kind of guy" can't be known until he actually turns down a huge offer from a Western team. Money talks, and the Mariners have TONS of it.
Maybe the front office would consider upping the budget for the right guy...maybe Pujols is that guy. But they might be leary of adding expensive veterans after their experiences with Bavasi and even with Zduriencik (Guti, Figgins, Bradley...). If the payroll stays at current levels, we don't have TONS of money to throw at Pujols. 26 mil or so comes off the books this offseason, but you've got Gutierrez making more next year, arb3 League making more now that he's a closer, Felix going from 10 mil to 19 mil...the good news is that our rotation other than Felix is cheap if you pass on Bedard (but if you don't...he'll cost more than he does this year)...the bad news is that we have a lot of work to do fixing the offense and I don't see how you justify spending every ounce of capital you've got to acquire a guy who plays the same position as your cheap club controlled superstar.
... in one reply.
First, apologies for my snark, apparently I was cranky this morning. However, TWO posts refuting the Dr's sarcasm simultaneously violated two of my major pet peeves.
The first being the incessant 'gotchya' need to point out where others are wrong that leads two posters to point out how a proffered idea was incorrect -- despite it clearly being offered in jest.
And the second, more egregious in my opinion, is the habit of couching opinion as fact. We are not St. Louis, we do not know the future.
And since this discussion isn't adding anything to our discourse, back to lurking I go.
- Ben.
The point is that there is no reason what-so-ever for the team to stick to it. Yes, if the team insists on acting like a mid-market team they won't add Pujols but it shouldn't be assumed that that will be the case and we shouldn't let the org get away with it if they do.
The skepticism towards adding Pujols is mostly just the cynicism M's fans have acquired with the penny pinching and incompetence of the last 8 years of this org. Just because this team has refused to pay for elite talent doesn't mean that we are Cincinnati and can only get players like Carlos Silva.
...oy...I can see how that might be the first assumption given the tendency for that to exist around the Mariner blogosphere, but that's not what I was doing...I never try to play gotchya with Jeff...because Jeff likes that even less than you do and I agree with him...it's one of the big reasons why I don't bother even reading USSM.
I do humbly apologize if that impression came through from me though...I didn't read Doc's original post as anything other than an attempt at humor...but I did want to comment on what I believe to be a high improbability of St. Louis trading Pujols in the middle of a pennant race and the lack of a fit here in Seattle even if they did. Consider everything I said retracted though if you think it was inappropriate.
...in service to your point, I do think the Mariners will likely increase the payroll as soon as the team starts winning with its' young talent and the fans start returning. I think they view the smaller budget as temporary (while we wait for a more coherent on-field strategy to emerge). But Even if we increased payroll 50% to 120 million, Pujols is likely to get 25+ mil/year IMHO...and that would make him 1/5th of our payroll...whcih...hasn't worked out well for anyone else who's tried it.
And this is why I think Bard isn't on the MLB team - the M's put a lot of stock in having someone reliable/good teaching the kids at AAA.
-----------How do you exploit it?------------
When pigs fly perhaps. Let the course of events happen first, and then I'll start beating my head against the wall on dollars vs. production. Really though all it takes is one of Bauer, Cole, or Hultzen. Then we'll let the beatings begin.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110525&content...
The 22-year-old left-hander scuffled a bit and fell in an early hole before finding his groove. He allowed a one-out single in the second inning to Jeremy Cruz, who scored two batters later on Marcus Nideffer's triple to give the Kernels a 1-0 lead. "I was still trying to find my curveball a little bit," Paxton said. "I left a couple fastballs up in the zone and guys got to it.
"The RBI hit [by Nideffer] was a good piece of hitting. That was my former catcher at [the University of Kentucky], so I thought he had a pretty good idea what was coming. It was low in the zone, but he put a good swing on it."
Jesus Campos' leadoff double in the third, however, was Cedar Rapids' last hit off the native of British Columbia. Of the final 12 outs he recorded, 10 were strikeouts.
"The catcher [Steven Baron] and I were on the same page," Paxton said. "I was mixing the curve and change and keeping those guys guessing. The curveball was working real well; they couldn't get to it. The fastball was working well too. I was putting it in right location where they couldn't get any good wood on it."
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When he's got the touch, his curveball is outstanding. Outstanding. I actually love guys who throw 92-94 with their FB not being their best pitch. Especially lefties. See Bedard, Erik or Gonzalez, Gio. Gio's arsenal is actually fairly similar to Paxton's, though he likes to work up in the zone instead of down. I wouldn't complain at all about getting his results out of James, though.
Now, most A-ballers can't hit a plus breaking ball, so I want to see him against guys in AA who CAN so that we know just how good his command of that pitch is, but for now? All systems are go. Maurer's already left Clinton, and I don't think Paxton will be far behind - though they're talking about sending him to High Desert per Churchill's site, I believe he said.
Which I would find interesting...but he keeps the ball on the ground enough for that to work out as well. And if they can't hit it, they can't go for extra bases either.
~G
Hot teaser in Larry Stone's blog:
I can tell you that in speaking to a lot of people for a story I'm working on for Friday's paper, there's growing excitement about the long-term potential of Paxton and his Clinton teammate, Taijuan Walker, last year's No. 1 pick.
Something to look forward to in tomorrow's rag, anyway.
Fascinating point.
So you keep Baron in A ball for two or three years? :- )
All five SP's staying healthy ...
But the thing is, K-Pax is going to be ready in pretty short order, and none of our current guys are going anywhere soon...
Except perhaps Bedard, whom they could probably secure at great advantage...
That'll be great ... but 92-94 with a shellshocking hook, like Jon Lester early on, is also quite pleasant...
Erik Bedard was 89-90 yesterday, rather than 90-92, and the precision took Erikkk's game UP, not down. So much for the "he's lost too much velo" consensus early on...
I'm with you G -- Paxton sounds like a thinking man's pitcher and the news just keeps getting more and more bubbly...
Not looking forward to the tone, which within the first sentence contains a "No Rooting In the Press Box" stance about Paxton's LONG-term potential.
There is nothing long-term about James Paxton.
But ya, the quotes will be interesting, no doubt... maybe you can link us up when it's online, Grizzly ...
Or free Safeco dog and coke, if back to commenting you go :- )
...........
Personally I'd believe a Seattle Pujols (type) contract when I saw him holding up a jersey on TV, and not 5 seconds before...
Cliff Lee wanted to be here, waited for the discussions, and the M's pole-axed them while still seething it their mother's milk, as it were... if you don't want to spend for Cliff Lee, you don't want to spend for anybody, in terms of externally-grown MVP/Cy candidates...
........
Cool Papa's one of the few any more who even BOTHERS pointing out that the Mariners could spend $20, $40, $50M more per season if they cared to...
Having done my four tours, 8 years since 2001, complaining about the committee's refusal to "get carried away" about pennant races, am glad to hand off to Cool Papa, Geoff Baker and others...
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Just for fun, all small samples:
Paxton, age 22, A Ball: 2.22 ERA in 28.1 IP, 7.0 H/9, 5.4 BB/9, 12.1 K/9
(last 3 outings: 17.1 IP, 6.2 H/9, 4.7 BB/9, 15.1 K/9)
First 5 pitchers taken in last year's draft:
#2 Jameson Taillon, age 19, A Ball: 3.38 ERA in 24 IP, 9.8 H/9, 1.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9
Rated #11 prospect in the land, pre-2011 by BA.
#5 Drew Pomeranz, age 22, A+ Ball: 2.09 ERA in 38.2 IP, 6.3 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, 12.6 K/9
Rated #61 prospect in the land, pre-2011 by BA.
#7 Matthew Harvey, age 22, A+ Ball: 2.87 ERA in 47 IP, 8.0 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 10.0 K/9
Not rated by BA pre-2011
#11 Deck McGuire, age 22, A+ Ball: 2.64 ERA in 47.2 IP, 6.4 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 7.9 K/9
Not rated by BA pre-2011
#13 Chris Sale, age 22, A+ to AAA Ball: 2.61 ERA in 10.1 IP (2010), 5.2 H/9, 5.2 BB/9, 16.5 K/9, Earl Weavered into the pen
MLB: 40.1 IP, 7.8 H/9, 4.5 BB/9, 11.4 K.9
Rated #20 prospect in the land by BA.
Paxton will be in A+ (at least) in the next couple starts, I would think. How's he holding up compared to the top of the class he was drafted in?
Not a bad get, I have to say. Kept a million in the budget to buy him off with and let Boras blink first. So stoked to draft him and sign him...
And now James looks like he wants to see AA by year end and then we'll see what Spring Training '12 holds.
~G
"... 89-90 yesterday, rather than 90-92, and the precision took Erik's game UP, not down ..."
And this, to me, sums up what I feel it the biggest flaw in pitcher scouting and rhetoric ... the fixation on MPH leads to instant dismissal (by most) of pitchers like say ... Vargas. While the list 99 MPH "flame outs" is actually much longer than people realize. (Rocker and Wohlers were two examples of flash and burn closers).
I think what gets missed in the big picture is that if you can CONTROL your pitches (location, location, location), you don't need triple-digit heat to dominate. BUT, if you have the control of a guy who throws 88 *AND* you can throw 96 ... well, then you get Pineda results.
What I have long felt is that "some" of the hardest tossers actually throw the break out of their pitches, and the extra velocity only helps them against certain hitters, (the sterotypical slider-speed bats).
There was a kid who pitched against the Mudcats last season (when I went to see Ackley) who hit 106 on the gun!!! In case you're thinking the calibration was off, the other pitchers on the night were all low to mid 90s ... what you typically see in most AA games. (I forget his name). But, he had no control, and he had no movement. His stats were pedestrian.
I know you think League needs to mix up his pitch "selection". I think he needs more to mix up his pitch location. But, I also wonder if League is simply "too" consistent with his velocity ... that it's not just that he's throwing his FB 100% in 'behind' scenarios ... but that he's throwing it low and away at exactly 95.5 mph. I think you can change *ANY* of the variables, (location, speed or pitch type), and improve results. I also think most successful hard throwers have some 'natural' movement on their FB ... and when they 'slump', it is often because (for whatever reason), they lose that subtle movement.
Rivera's cutter ... Hoffman's changeup ... hitters could go up looking for NOTHING but those pitches and still fail. Per fangraphs, Rivera through his cutter 92.9% of the time for the 2009 season ... and had a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves. Mind you, 2009 was also his career high in HRs allowed for the season (7).
But, I really do love the concept that you CAN improve by lowering velocity ... in those cases where a pitcher is losing movement and/or control to generate that velocity.
But, I've often felt that Bedard needed to 'back off' just a hair ... as I think his injury problems have been aggravated by too much time spent at the fringe of his physical limits. That concept of reaching back for a little more 'occasionally' rings true to me for most pitchers. Outside of closer types, I don't think the human body can just repeat true 'max effort' again and again without the body falling apart.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2015167726_frida...
Many juicy Pedro Griffol quotes:
"Erasmo Ramirez is pretty interesting. The reason I say that, the other day I saw him at 92 to 95 (mph). He doesn't just control the baseball, he commands it. He's a very,very durable kid. He's not only a guy who can be a consistent winner at the big-league level, but an innings guzzler. A nine-inning guy. He has the potential to be a 7, 8, 9 inning guy, and those are hard to find. When you have a kid like this, who's young, durable and powerful, and commands the baseball like this, he's pretty interesting."
SS Carlos Triunfel: "I really like what he's doing. He came in at 194 pounds; ,last year, when he got to Arizona, he was 218, 219. I give him credit: He came in at 194, and the other day he weighed in at 194. It makes a difference. He goes side to side extremely well. He's always had a great throwing arm. His plate discipline is getting better. It's not exactly where it needs to be. He looks great."
Erasmo gets lots of praise there. I do wonder why he's not striking more guys out with low-to-mid-90s stuff if he's moved up to that now, but with him being in the zone SO much maybe it's hard...and 6.5 per 9 isn't chopped liver. If we could teach him to walk one extra guy a game just to drop his hits and up his Ks, though, I'd love it. Erasmo is a fun one to watch.
I love that Grifol uses the phrase "electric" to describe Guillermo Pimentel's bat - three different times. *grins* Apparently he's impressed by it. If HE can ever command a strike zone, look out. Man do I want to see him hit short-season with serious improvement in that area.
Good words for Tenbrink (whom I still believe in) and Triunfel (not so much, but this helps his trade value). Seager is getting time around the infield because he's not displacing Ackley, but with the word being that Seager gets his AAA callup when Ackley goes to the bigs, the Mariners obviously like Kyle a lot as well.
Nice things said about Carp, too, but with Peguero being useless now that he's been booked as having two very large holes in his swing (and a huuuuge strike zone thanks to his height and his habit of swinging at everything) I want Peguero and Saunders to both go down and work on fixing their issues.
Let Wilson or Carp play.
And the stuff on Paxton is great.
LHP James Paxton: "His walks are a little high, but he's throwing 90 to 95, and sitting at 92, 93 with comfort. His breaking ball is a strikeout pitch, and his change is becoming a pitch he can go to as he develops. He gets a lot of swings and misses. His pitch count is always high, because he gets so many swings and misses. It's hard to pick his ball up, and he has the stuff to go along with it. He's a pretty interesting kid." Note: In prospect speak, "interesting kid" is high praise. Paxton has a 2.22 ERA in five starts for Class A Clinton with 38 strikouts and 17 walks in 28 1/3 innings.
Can't wait to see what happens as the walks decline. Go-go James Paxton!
~G
If he's getting bored, it's not messing with his strikeouts. ;)
6.1 IP tonight, 4 hits, 1 run, 13K to 2 BB.
Season in A-ball: 2.70 ERA in 50 IP, 40 hits (1 HR), 73K/30BB.
If you're counting that's 7.2 H/9, 13.1 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9, with a .226 BAA and a .380 BABIP. Can't wait to see what happens when he walks a couple fewer per 9, sheesh.
~G
Since 5.24 update: 35 strikeouts, 13 walks and 0 homers, in 22 IP over four games.
That's the equivalent of 14 strikeouts and 5 walks per complete game.
As with Lincecum in college, the walks are little more than a reflection of the fact that nobody ever puts the ball in play.
That's exactly why I'd rather see him facing more advanced hitters. 14 K's and 5 BB's, pitching against the air so to speak, isn't what he needs to be doing, IMHO.
No one in the MWL can hit his breaker. How's he supposed to get better if nobody can make contact with the pitch and show him where he should and should not throw it?
He's done in the Midwest League. The sooner he gets promoted the better, IMO. When Gillheeney goes up to AA, they should have a space in the Cal League for him...though I'm not against him dropping straight into AA either.
~G
This is just getting silly. Batters can't even make contact with him. Promote him.
Paxton was sent to Clinton to work on a specific task, like having the same release point for his fastball and breaking ball or some such. The M's decided it was better to have him work on a technical issue in a setting where it wouldn't damage his performance too greatly and create too much of an incentive to lapse back to his flawed mechanics that deliver better results in the short run.
Just a guess...
... and the year's layoff plays in to the marshmallow-soft "just get in a nice rhythm, kid" approach.