Nice to see other people just have a roughed out rule of thumb for weeding quickly through prospects to see what jumps out. ;)
Tenbrink, for all his (significant) struggles this year is still showing up, even as he underperforms and wrestles with swing alterations. There IS potential there, even if somebody wants to grump about his age or current stat line. I was sorry to see the start of the year be so rough for him because at 24, he's got to have the breaks go his way to get a shot. Hoping for a better 3+ months from here out.
And to throw a name on here from last year (he had 39 games there, Vinnie Catricala has had 42 this year in the Cal, so it's a comparable sample size):
Ji-Man Choi, AZL 2010:
---------
XBH BB Total
18 21 39
--------
BB/K K% SB CS 3B
.70 22 10 1 2
It's the AZL, so the stats have to be taken with a decent grain of salt, but his brush with the Cal League (3-4 levels higher than the AZL) showed him to be totally unfazed at that level either in his cup of coffee.
Did I mention he was a perfect fielder behind the plate and threw out 50% of basestealers in (very) limited opportunities? And that whole package of XBHs, eye, wheels for a bigger man, and potential defensive ability is why I'm holding a spot in my top-5 minor league hitters for him to show up and take. Pimentel, E. Peguero and Castillo all get to show what they've got in a few weeks too.
Surprised to see you do K% off of ABs instead of plate appearances, though - any reason you choose that way? Franklin's K% off Plate appearances is 17%, for instance. Now I tend to use K% as a function of ABs because it's a nice rule of thumb that anything over 25% is below waterline, and it's an easy ratio to remember. Just wondering if you do it for any other reason.
Thanks for the spotlight on the minor league hitters. Always like em. :)
~G
Just messing around with some numbers.
I like to look at extra-base hits + walks. It's just sort of turning OPS into a counting stat, and sort of takes the philosophy of "singles are easy" or, at least, more random than extra-base hits. And a walk is a 100% chance of getting first, as opposed to the 30% chance you get from putting the ball in play.
Anyway, it's a pretty good screen for who is likely to produce offensive results that affect the scoreboard. The top 10 in the organization shouldn't really surprise anyone:
| Player | XBH | BB | Total |
| Dustin Ackley | 18 | 35 | 53 |
| Danny Carroll | 18 | 29 | 47 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | 16 | 28 | 44 |
| Alex Liddi | 22 | 20 | 42 |
| Rich Poythress | 19 | 22 | 41 |
| Mike Carp | 24 | 16 | 40 |
| Dennis Raben | 24 | 13 | 37 |
| Nick Franklin | 15 | 22 | 37 |
| Nate Tenbrink | 14 | 23 | 37 |
| Kyle Seager | 18 | 17 | 35 |
Four other guys are having good offensive years who don't make that top 10: Carlos Triunfel, Denny Almonte and Jake Shaffer becuase they don't get enough walks; and Vinny Catricala because he has an extraordinarily high number of singles (while Tenbrink has an extraordinarily low number of singles). But all four get consideration anyway.
Then I look at three other factors: eye, speed and glove.
Nine of the guys have eye ratios above 0.4, which is sort of an arbitrary cut-off for guys who ought to be able to hold their own in the majors. Here they are re-racked for eye ratio, with K% also shown. Guys like Carroll, Tenbrink and Tui are drawing walks, but also whiffing, which can be a red flag, but not always:
| Player | BB/K | K% |
| Ackley | 1.35 | 13 |
| Franklin | 0.69 | 20 |
| Seager | 0.65 | 15 |
| Catricala | 0.61 | 17 |
| Tui | 0.59 | 28 |
| Tenbrink | 0.59 | 32 |
| Poythress | 0.56 | 24 |
| Carroll | 0.51 | 32 |
| Carp | 0.42 | 23 |
For speed factor I look at SB/CS and non-fluke number of triples. It's just a quick-and-dirty way to get a judgment. It does appear to me that guys who rank high in triples in the minors tend to be among the best prospects, because they have to be both stinging the ball and showing some athleticism. Danny Carroll is by far the dominant guy on the basepaths.
| Player | SB/CS | 3B |
| Carroll | 24/4 | 1 |
| Franklin | 7/1 | 4 |
| Almonte | 7/6 | 4 |
| Tenbrink | 6/0 | 5 |
| Ackley | 6/3 | 1 |
| Tui | 5/1 | 2 |
So Carroll, Tenbrink and Franklin are bringing the most speed factor among the 14 we're looking at. Carroll only had 25 SB all of last year, but he had 38 in 2008. Tenbrink had 23 SB and 10 triples last season.
Finally, glove factor is primarily a matter of whether the player could hold down a "glove" position in the majors:
Franklin and Triunfel at SS -- likely (Franklin maybe more likely)
Ackley and Seager at 2b -- likely
Carroll and Almonte at CF -- likely
The other guys would have to play corner positions or DH.
====
So, not surprisingly, Ackley and Franklin are above the rest, showing potentially strong all-around impact.
The others all have some concerns, although Seager as a 2b prospect would be hard to argue with. We just won't be needing a 2b prospect unless something happens to Ackley. Seager does, however, profile awfully similarly (30-ish doubles, 10-15 HR, 15% K rate, no speed) to the third baseman who played every day for a team that won 116 games.
Seager = David Bell?
Not what you desire at 3b, but better than what you get sometimes.
Triunfel is back in the "solid" category (17 XBH) if he can play SS
Then you have Carroll. Really, the 32% K rate is the biggest concern. Everything else looks surprisingly good. And as a guy who can play CF with speed, some pop and some patience, he's definitely leapt the highest on my list this year.
Another guy moving up is Catricala. Even though I think his overall numbers are inflated by High Desert and high BABIP, he's way less whiff-tastic than many of the other guys in his peer group.
And then the "player to watch" -- the suddenly walk-obsessed Jabari Blash, who would be having an awesome year if he were hitting, but he's not.
Comments
K % I just get from fangraphs. I like baseball-reference better because it's easier to work with, but I have to use fangraphs, too, because they have BABIP and K% and some other things that b-ref doesn't have for minors. I find that they are usually a day or two behind b-ref in terms of updating, but that doesn't matter so much for what I was looking at above. b-ref is great because you can look at the whole org and whole teams on one page.
By the way, if anyone wants to do that, you start here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/affiliate.cgi?id=SEA&year=2011
You can click on any of the teams or any of the players to get the specific stats.
When you go down to "Organizational Batting" or "Organizational Pitching" it will be alphabetcal (Ackley is #1 just by last name, coincidentally), but if you click on any category at the top of the table (doubles, OPS, SB, whatever), it will re-order them to give you the organizational leaders.
It's very cool, and I don't know of any way to do that on fangraphs. But, like I said, certain stats you have to use them both now that minorleaguesplits is no longer there (although the archived splits are still available, they are not being updated I don't think).
====
As for Choi, absolutely -- a big fan. Choi@C = Ackley@2b (at least that's my hope) in terms of putting an impact bat at a "glove" position.
Psyched to see what Pimentel can do, too. 7 doubles, 6 triples and 6 HR in less than 200 ABs. Love those triples; don't love that he had more triples than walks. But he was just 17 . . .
Just wondering if there is another organization that would not give a guy with 41 homers over the last 150 (or so) AAA games a call up.
Like the XBH + BB idea Spec... tough to find an online DB that will add them, but, that's just the kind of thing it's fun to sort B-ref.com's org minors data for. You bring up all the org hitters and sort them by, say, TB, and boom a couple names jump out, like Catricala's...
I like to look at extra-base hits + walks. It's just sort of turning OPS into a counting stat, and sort of takes the philosophy of "singles are easy" or, at least, more random than extra-base hits.
50 cpoints
......
Your article reminds of a BBA "Best Tools In Org", except on steroids bro'...
Seager and Catricala are definite saber prospects... Bill James once said, "major league organizations listen entirely too much to what their scouts are telling them, and entirely too little to how their players are performing"...
At SSI we like both the scout and saber lenses, but Seager and Catricala have that saber lens soundin' the alarms... here's rootin' for 'em...
Over his last 150 or so games - we ain't called him up either. ;)
~G
Halman has played in 4 AAA games this year, 15 PA's, 3 hits, 2 doubles. A call-up is hardly deserved.
He did get called up last Sept. after a 33 homer AAA year. He went 4-29 with a double, while with the M's.
Doing some checking, I did find that Carp got a Sept. call-up last year (I had forgotten). He went 2-7 with a double.
Carp was also called up on June 7th of '10 and then sent back down on June 27th, the day the M's reacquired Branyan.
After retooling his swing and approach, Carp has blistered AAA , over two seasons.
I know there is some belief in a resurgent Cust, I'm hopeful, too. I do think, however, that Cust's upside right now is Carp; ergo, give the AB's to Carp.
37 dingers over last season and this. Not getting any love in Chicago, although looking at what Derrick Lee and Carlos Pena has offered, I can't see how he could have done any worse. He's 28-29, but wasn't Pena himself a pretty late bloomer?
Anyway, nice post, Spec. Hard not to be intrigued with Carroll.
Spec, I agree, this is a nice post. I've been pointing out for a while that getting 4-5 players (or positions, in a platoon deal) above the 40 x-base hit level is pretty dang consistent with creating a potent offense. (You can do it with 4 in the NL).
Right now the M's have one who is on pace to exceed that, Smoak who is looking at 63 x-base hits. Cust (who I want to dump, ironically) is looking at 38.
You don't have to hit it over the fence, but you need to hit it too the fence 40 times.
Walks and two-baggers add up.
to call up Ackley for the Yankees series. What a better situation to draw fans to Safeco and interest in the media ? And Seager to Tacoma playing 2B