Ms would have to trade for a long-term piece if they're going to give up young talent.
Theres not enough position player talent in place to contend this year IMO. Maybe next year, but the team has several holes. SS, 3B, LF, C, DH, and maybe CF depending on Guti. Ichiro may be declining.

The question is, do you want to use them on a player this year or roll them over to something else later? 
I'm with Taro on this - THIS year it's tough to make a dent in this problem unless the player is a multi-year solution.  I'm not trading for Jose Reyes, for instance, even though he bumps our SS production by approximately 60 points (or the difference between an average batter and Albert Pujols).
He's a FA next year, and I'm not expending Franklin + Wilhelmsen + Campos (for instance) for 3 months of Reyes (though his Type A status ameliorates the problem slightly).
Would I trade that for a year and a half of Ethier (who would be my preferred target as well)?
I might, actually, if I could extend him at something less than Jayson Werth (who would be my comp to him out of recent FAs, except Ethier is younger) got. 15 mil a year is gonna be what Ethier gets, though, so either pony up or let him roll on by.
I would absolutely consider a big bat solution for the future if we were willing to throw down the dough - and the gauntlet as it were. Ackley/Ethier/Smoak 2-4 in the lineup fixes several ills, and a Rendon drafting cures more.
...But we can just wait a year and a half and sign Ethier for that price anyway, and keep the prospects.  We can sign Reyes after this year, and keep the prospects (or use them for something else).  Our record is bad enough that we won't lose a first rounder to sign anyone.
Currency you never use might as well just be mattress stuffing, and prospects have value before they have a chance to fail, so you risk losing the value in a crop by hanging on to them for too long.
But it's still a limited amount of currency, and you need to determine what you want to spend it on.
We need an Ethier, IMO - someone who cannot be found in the system but who is desperately and urgently required in the lineup.  If you could slap a 130 OPS+ patch on a 70 OPS+ hole, that's awesome.  That's one-third of the way to contention.
Ackley, Rendon, Smoak and Ethier would be a tremendous 2-5 to build around.  Get a half-way decent SS in here (or hope Triunfel can hold it together if you trade Franklin), have F-Gut come back to his own, and patch up the catching situation and we're golden.
Ethier (and Rendon) makes everything easier.  And I would make a trade now to solidify a hitter like that in LF for a long time.  But just because we have tradable commodities doesn't mean we should use them THIS year to solve THIS year's lineup issues.
Not if it doesn't solve next year's lineup issues too.
~G

I agree with your idea. If we're going to trade for an impact talent it would need to be for 3 years+ or a Cliff Lee type no-brainer.
I don't like Ethier in particualr though. Hes poor defensively and very Ibanez-ish overall. Above-average, 2+ WAR type, but not an impact guy and about to escape his prime. He wouldn't fit in LF at Safeco and would be a pricy DH.
Reyes and Fielder fit more in the impact mold, but like you say they are FA after this year and you don't want to be trading for rent-a-players this year.

I like the idea of Brett Gardner. I think that a very logical fit. The Yankees need SP and the Ms need a long-term, cheap LF that can play CF for Guti-insurance.
Gardner is the perfect Safeco player. BBs, defense, lefty, OBP.
It would likely cost Erik Bedard+. but would be well worth it.

My guess is Gardner costs at least Vargas (that was the trade I proposed over at MarinerCentral).  That's a trade I make.  I don't think Bedard is very valuable.  He's still a 17 pitches per inning starter that can't throw more than 100 pitches a game.  His performance is not back and it may never come back.  He presently has the 107th ranked ERA out of 140 starters with 30 or more innings.  His FIP is rated 123rd.  The most rosy view is xFIP, which projects him to be an average (xFIP which 'fixes' his high homer rate).  Sure he's likely to improve if he stays healthy, but is that a bet you make?

Gardner is a MASSIVE upgrade over Saunders/Peguero. He was one of the top OF in the AL last year in WAR.
I think you may be right about Bedard though. I would trade Vargas for Gardner as well (kgaffney's suggestion). That a trade that seems to make sense for both sides. Don't know if Vargas would do as well in Yankee stadium, but it seems like a good fit.

Keep on making me look foolish with a complete game shutout.

And you'll be lovin' every minnit.

You can get an awfully soft WAR by taking 25 runs through fielding and another 10 runs through a BB spike.  ;- )
Ask our 3B... he convinced everybody he was a 50-runs guy .... whoops, what was this guy supposed to be doing for us again? 
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Gardner had one (1) year with sparkly WAR, as Figgins had one career year.  That's another soft aspect to his resume.  This year, with fielding and OBP down a bit, he's on pace for about 3 WAR.  ... league-average bat, probably good defense.
Not saying that Gardner's worthless - just saying I'd be real careful about paying for All-Star production there.  Figgins burned us, but good.
If you're going to commit to a MOTO outfielder, make sure it's 5 WAR hard on the barrelhead...
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He gives you 6.0 RC/27, which is fine I guess, but all you need is one slip (say, ummm... the NL/AL transition!) and there goes all your MOTO'ability...
Second half last year, he was 270/350/433, and could easily visualize that being his Safeco line going forward...
Not chopped liver, but for what Ethier will cost, I can't challenge my org to get me a 270/350/450 corner outfielder?
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If Capt Jack judged Ethier to have upside remaining, that would be reasonable.  Shandler thinks Ethier has some .300-35-115 years in him.
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Sure, but I don't think Figgins' decline should count against Gardner. I agree with your main point though that another 5+ WAR season isn't very likely,
Would agree hes more likely to settle in the 3+ WAR range, but thats a very valuable piece with several control years remaining.

Sign me up.  I'm there.
As you noted, he's a fit for the park, aside from being a fine ballplayer.

Trading Vargas?  Am I reading that right?  We've got a guy who is establishing himself as a #2 or #3 arm who (considering his skill set) may throw like this until he's 96 years old (see Moyer) and we're going to trade him for Brett Gardner?  Ish!  Eeeck!  Yuck!!
We have some interesting pieces who may develop into LF'ers.  I would much rather see what a Peguero or Wilson develops into out there than trade a Vargas. 
BTW...We gave up a guy who may well be better than Gardner when we traded Carrera for nutin' last year.   Arrrrgh.  Hated that then...hate it more now.
I am becoming more intrigued with Johan Limonta all the time. He's tearing up AAA right now and has hit .297-.302-.331 and OBP'ed .376-.377-.384 over the last three years (AA-AA-AAA).  He's 27, I know....but didn't play pro ball until he was 22.  He doesn't hit the ball out very often...but he's hit 43-30 and 41 doubles over the past full three years (not counting '11).
Wally Joyner and Mark Grace-lite!  Or, being more local, Bruce Bochte.
But, back on track, I'm playing the Felix-Pineda-Fister-Vargas hand as long as I can.
 

Ethier, ranking in all of MLB by OPS (qualified hitters):
2011: 44
2010: 30
2009: 43
2008: 26
So you have a guy who would qualify as the best bat on his team, maybe second best, for most teams in the league, and patch the gaping wound in the OF, and the complaint is "His D is kinda ugly so he can't play LF for us?"
That offense has been produced consistently (not a one year spike like Beltre, but consistently) in a pitcher's park.  His handedness is also suited to our park, which means that transition won't eat him alive either.  He's under 30.  And thanks to the divorce disaster with the Dodgers and their ownership situation he's probably available.
There comes a time when you're being penny-wise and pound-foolish.  Is he the perfect ballplayer?  No.  Wanna bet on Grady Sizemore or someone instead? Hey, guess who's outhit Sizemore for his career...
Some kid named Ethier.
Ibanez was laughed at, derided, and wanted out of town on a rail at the earliest opportunity.  He was the only reliable hitter we had.  Ethier puts up the same stat line every year.
I dunno if you would be satisfied with a 6.0 RC/27 and 130 OPS+ every season, but I would have tears streaming down my face at the gift from above to have that stat line from another player for 4-5 years.
I have a RF who is the "total package" of defense, offense, baserunning, etc...and I can't hit him in the MOTO and he can't drive in any runs.  Gardner plays better D than Ethier, no question.  He can't hit MOTO either.  Is he cheaper?  Sure.  Would he be better than what we have? You bet.  But LF and DH are our only power positions available to add heavy hitters.  Do you want Randy Winn, or Raul Ibanez+ out there in LF for you?  What are your needs?
The pitchers can handle their own run prevention right now, and we have CFs who can cover a country mile.  Neither of those groups can drive in runs though.
Get me someone who can, be it Ethier or someone else.  Aiming the target at pretty defense has our offense in a triangle choke hold and attempting to tap out.
~G

This team desperately needs offense, not defense, and getting a guy with a career .372 Slg% won't get the M's to the playoffs. Such a guy sure as heck isn't worth one of our best players. At the very best that would be an even swap which wouldn't get us anywhere. We need a big bat, and we need to acquire it without giving up any key contributors.

I haven't really been watching the games this year. It seems Vargas added a cutter that has been extremely effective and his peripherals have improved.
Vargas-Gardner may be pretty even actually if you consider Vargas improving and Gardner regressing a bit. Both are good Safeco fits. Its an even trade, but I would definetly prefer Bedard+ given Vargas long-term value after looking over Vargas again.
I like Gardner as a Safeco target. I think people are hesitant because Figgins aged early with a similar type skillset and has been a disaster. LF isn't a spot where you want to slap a lead-footed slugger in Safeco.

He's cheap, decently productive, plays good D...
But a 105 OPS+ LF with good D isn't what I need.  That's what's in RF.  And if we're really lucky what's in CF with Good Guti.
How many of those do we need?  At what point can we put the glove down and consider the bat?
If we have a gold-glove in CF and RF, can we pleasepleasePLEASE have a Manny Ramirez in LF?
Ethier isn't a Manny-level offensive talent - few are, even unjuiced Manny.  But an Ibanez hitting 5th for us would be extremely helpful.  Bone had a great arm but wasn't the greatest fielder.  Him hitting 5th after Griffey and Gar still mattered to that offense.
Ethier hits 40 2B/3B and 20+ HRs per 162.  That's at least Ibanez.
Ichiro/Ackley/Rendon/Smoak/Ethier/Guti could be an amazing lineup for us.  And I like a lineup that doesn't require everyone to be at their best to still be effective.
I understand if Ethier is considered too expensive, or even not a "good enough" hitter somehow, but I am absolutely NOT against a bat-first LF.  I don't want Ackley, Smoak and hopefully Rendon to have to be 90% of perfect just to move the collective inertia of this offense.  And if we don't get Rendon this offense definitely needs HELP - more than a Gardner can provide IMO.
~G

I'm against a bat-first LF type because they are usually overpaid in regards to toal overall production. In Safeco inparticular the D in LF is about as important as the D for a regular CF.
An above-average offense player with great D is worth a lot. RIght now wwe have exactly zero position players on the roster that are putting up that kind of production.
Ms could really use a mashing DH to complement the OF as well.

Anybody know what the "standard" number of innings a good pitching guy generally throws in MiLB is?
Pineda...obviously a phenom, threw 404....but Vargas only 414 (and 51 of those were when he was sent back down in '09).  Fister threw 421.  Felix was WAY developed...he only threw 306 and Bedard 353.  Check out Vargas' development in the minors.  He basically skipped A+ and AA (9 starts and 3 starts...Heck, he only had 8 starts in A ball...His first call up was straight out of AA ball in '05).  then he understandably struggled in his first AAA season (7.43 ERA/1.83 WHIP) then he improved dramatically in season #2 (4.48/1.48). those were in '06 anbd '07...both years he pitched in the majors, too.  But, over the last three years in Seattle...His ERA and WHIP have dropped each year.
Heck...he came up at 22, just like Pineda.  but the record shows that Vargas improves, given experience at a level.  I don't think this is a flash-in-the-pan Vargas....We're seeing his natural pitching progression.  He has learned his craft, learned it on the run, in fact.  Now we're enjoying the results.
By he way...Moyers, THE Vargas template, basically skipped a class, too (his was AAA....only 42 innings before he was up). Then he learned his craft...and got WAY better.
Vargas for Gardner would be a loss of huge proportion.
In '91, would you have traded Moyers for his guy....???? The ages and trajectories of the Vargas/Gardner match these guys fairly well (hey, it was a quick search)    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kellyro01.shtml
...B-R suggests Mookie Wilson and Randy Winn are better comparisons.  If you knew you were going to get the 7 seasons that Winn had after he turned 27 then it would be an interesting proposition.  Although, even then, a Winn is much more replaceable than the Vargas we see now.  I think that's the Vargas we will continue to see.
BTW, Kelly was Gardner-type...was with the Yankees, too...
Not a terrible type of comparison.  Of course we know what Moyers became....but the form chart indicates Vargas is that type of horse.
 

But if we fill LF with a decent-bat, good-glove player then there's nowhere left to put a bat-first player EXCEPT DH.  
We wouldn't do it til after the draft, so at least then I would know if we got Rendon to add a plus bat at 3rd, but we passed on a V-Mart type solution at DH/C and other than a Fielder-type I'm not sure what other path we'd take to get that bigger bat - and he'll cost a metric ton.  More than he weighs, even.
We only have two "masher" slots available with Ichiro here through 2015 at least.  We haven't found a DH solution since Edgar was here.  I wouldn't mind playing a rotating bat out in LF, using a guy like Ethier half in the field and half as a DH.  Pull him for a late inning defensive presence, that sort of thing.
The Tigers are getting good production out of V-Mart by only letting him play every 3rd or 4th game behind the plate, and might be able to get a full contract out of that - which is what I wanted to do. 
But the talk of total production and the idea that a theoretical run saved is just as good as an actual run earned doesn't quite hold water for me.  Not when I'm watching this offense at the plate, and seeing the demolition being wreaked on opposing offenses by our starters recently.
We have 5 plus pitchers in the rotation - and if I asked any of em whether they'd feel better about having Ethier at the plate and in LF than any of our current options, do you think they'd say, "Man, can't use Ethier, his glove is pretty bad and I might give up more runs..."
Personally I'd think they'd light up like the sun at having a bat to score runs to get them wins and would practice throwing groundballs to help him out.
~G

Youse guys have got me back onto the Straight-and-Narrow Stars & Scrubs path...
Thanks for the reminder, and agree that any big acquisition should be as bat-first as earthly possible, as Justin Smoak was...
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But the talk of total production and the idea that a theoretical run saved is just as good as an actual run earned doesn't quite hold water for me. 

You do have a way with words, dude.
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You were thinking of the 2010 Vargas in your trade 'proposal.'  I see exactly what you're saying in that case.
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Our problem isn't that we have 100 OPS+ GG defenders that we need to switch out for 130 OPS+ lead gloves.
Our problem is that we have several 60 OPS+ RL starters in the lineup that we need to switch out for good players.

I really don't want an Ethier/Jason Bay type (Ethier is a lesser Jason Bay, close to Ibanez). Those guys tend to have overrated skillsets, tend to be overpaid, and are horrific fits for Safeco. RH pull hitters with lead gloves in the OF.
I imagine Ethier will cost somewhere in the $14-18million range per year and hes just not worth it. Hes an above-average DH, but can't field. It is better to pay the extra for a pure DH like Fielder in that scenario or go cheaper.
If you could land someone like Seth Smith cheap thats one thing, but Gardner is a much more logical fit for this team. Hes a better player, a much better fit for Safeco, and cheap.

I'm actually a little suprised at how good Vargas '11 skillset looks so far. Ditto Fister. I haven't been paying as close attention, but this SP is very good and should be around for a while.

Only reply might be:  that we're not confident the M's will trade several 60 OPS+ starters, and not confident that a 92 team OPS+ is enough.
A big bat would cover for areas not fixed, and would provide impetus towards a solid offense, rather than a makeshift one.
But yeah.

I agree with the between-Bay-and-Ibanez comp, but as a lefty he's FINE for Safeco.
That point aside, I hear you on the larger point about needing 100 OPS+ hitters with good gloves instead of 60.
But we need SOME hitters who can own good pitching if we plan to get anywhere in the playoffs.  Ethier holds his own against power pitching and destroys the weaker stuff.  Flyball or GB pitching makes no difference to him.
I don't mind if you don't want him SPECIFICALLY, but Smoak can't be our only RBI man.  Not unless you want him to be the roided-up version of Gonzo to power the lineup.  Seven 100 OPS+ bats plus Ichiro plus Smoak looks great...until the 100 OPS+ guys bottom out because the difference between an average hitter and a bad one isn't actually that much.
And Gardner isn't cheap as far as what it'd take to get him - he's got lots of club control, which makes him VERY valuable, and not just to us but to the Yankees as well who need SOME cheap players to ameliorate the roster devastation that the aging A-Rod/Posada/Jeter/etc are about to wreak on New York.
I dunno what Ethier will cost, but i agree he's not coming cheap.  If you could get him for 14x5 you'd be doing well. We'd need more payroll in 2013+.
Or we'd get 1.5 years of Ethier at LF/DH to give us a stopgap to find ANOTHER hitter, then take his Type A status, draft some new players and spend his money somewhere else.
The LF market next year is not strong, IIRC, and the DH market is, as always, filled with very expensive players or fading ones.
*shrugs* I'm happy to add a Kubel at DH or a Gardner in LF...but adding both just Civic-izes the lineup and REQUIRES us to hit on the kids.  It forces us to build a MOTO from within.  Ethier + Kubel or Gardner + Fielder are both doable - and of the two I'd prefer the Gardner/Fielder duo as well.
And again, I'm a big enough believer in Rendon to be willing to jump on a Kubel/Gardner pairing with a MOTO of Ackley, Rendon and Smoak.  We DO need better players all around, not just big bats.
Smoak just can't be the one to do all the heavy lifting, IMO, that's all.
~G

I don't expect to lose ALL the minus-bats, so we need some plus ones to compensate. To give us some margin for error.  Thinking, "Oh, all we need is a decent hitter like Chone Figgins/Jack Cust/Jack Wilson at SS" is what got us here in the first place when they failed to actually BE decent hitters.
~G

While I agree, I think the park pretty much demands a pitching/defense oriented team and I don't think LF is the most cost-effective solution for adding a bat. 1B, DH, 3B (to a lesser extent) are the better positions in Safeco for bats.
We've got Smoak, but we need a killer DH like we used to have with Edgar in Safeco. Figgins kills us at 3B if hes not going to hit at all.

and I deeply resent it.

My bad on Ethier. LH makes him pretty much a young Ibanez. Probably a 2-3 WAR player going forward for the next few years.
Hes not worth the money for that kind of production though. If the Ms are going to get a bat at LF, I think it needs to be a superstar type that can both hit and field.
I agree the Ms need more plus bats, but I just don't think a poor glove in LF helps us unless we can find a cheap solution.

Very concise, very non-ego'ed out, always at the right angle when disagreeing, always zig-zagging us down the field.
Wish I could say the same about your 6-and-0 start in the SSI league! :- )

Thanks Doc.. That strong start is a bit lucky. Wish I would have picked up Fister. :-)

Sorry Doc. ;)
And yeah, I agree Taro, LF is NOT the most convenient way to add power.  But we added it at 1B, we've missed on it at DH for 7 years in a row, our 3B hits worse than most SS and is under contract for at least 2 and a half more years...
Left field is it, m'man.  At 3B it's Rendon or nothin.  At DH, I'm not sure who the plus hitter there would be - most players DON'T want to play a strict DH slot.  Ibanez hated it too, thought it besmirched his manhood not to play the field or something.
So we either need a LF/DH share, or we need to pay Fielder, which we're also not likely to do.
Ethier is a top-30 bat (via OPS).  He's apparently either not good enough in the field or with a bat to justify his expected funds in 2013+.  A trade of Bedard is limited to playoff contenders, which limits our pool of contenders.  Cleveland's using the OF I'd be interested in, and I'm not a Lonnie Chisenhall guy at 3B (not that we could get him anyway).
And we can't really wait a couple of years for the next Michael Saunders to pan out or fail - we need a boots-on-the-ground contributor ASAP.
I dunno - we can shuffle the catching situation or work F-Gut back in for CF or call up Ackley at 2B, but the immediate impact isn't likely to come from there.
We'll talk again after the draft - Rendon changes my opinion on the dire need for a plus hitter in LF. :)
~G

Batters need to input X number of pitches, so that they can recognize spin in the first 10-20 feet ... with X going up or down per talent level.
X seems to equal about 5,000-8,000 or so pro pitches, as a rule of thumb, for the average guy.
.........
Pitchers don't need the info-jack.  They're working on their own sports movements without much regard to what's happening around them.
How long does it take for a bowler to crack a 200 average?  There's no set amount of time.  "Career Arc" is fundamentally a construct for hitters.
Many historical pitchers were very good at age 19.  Such as Felix.  Tim Lincecum could have stepped off the UW diamond over to Safeco and thrown a shutout in the majors.
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