Not sure I agree with you on ticket impacts.
My take on "significant" ticket selling ... it is based "primarily" on *PERCEPTION* of what is coming tomorrow rather than what happened last month.
You argue that Pineda "kept the hope alive". Except that the club ATT/G is only 19,697 at the moment, (it was 25,749 during the 61 win 2010 season).
In 2006, the club adds 9 wins (78), compared to 2005, but lost 3000 fans a night.
In 2007, the club won 88 and averaged 32,990, (adding another 10 wins), and gained back 2,500 per night.
In 2008, they tanked. Attendance did drop, but season ticket sales were based off the previous two seasons of gains. So, even a May collapse left them averaging 28,762 while winning only 61 games.
In 2009, they won 85, surprising everyone during the Griffey victory tour. Attendance DROPPED 1,600 a game. Why? Because after winning 61, nobody believed 2009 would be good.
In 2010, again down to 61 wins (25,749 per game). Worst Safeco attendance ever. But, coming off the 85 win season, season tickets kept up interest. This time the May collapse hurt more.
But, in 2011, "expectation" was the club would finish last. And the club has average 19,697. That's a drop of 5,000 per night. Are you arguing that would've been 6,000 a night if Pineda hadn't arrived? Because I don't believe it.
Remember, the highest attendance was NOT during the 116 win season -- it was during the following year.
My take on ticket sales is this. Regardless of when you bring up Ackley, the "primary" impact on ticket sales will be realized in 2012 ... not 2011. MOST fans gave up Seattle before the 2011 season began. The winning streak was nice. But, what was the ACTUAL attendance after the 5 game winning streak - and after taking 2 of 3 in Boston?
At home, vs. division rival Texas on May 3rd (with a 13-16 record entering the day), 12,759
May 4th: 13,896 -- a Pineda Wednesday night start
May 5th: 14,205.
Felix gets a bump in attendance every time. But Pineda isn't going to lure Soccer Mom out to the park on Bridge night.
The best thing for 2012 ticket sales will be a strong showing from guys like Ackley and Smoak and Carp in September. Selling tickets for 2011 was largely done by April 1st. Selling tickets for 2012 will largely be done based on performance during September and what (if any) lineup changes there are to go along with the youth movement during the off-season.
You get an .800 OPS out of Ackley in August and September ... and get 30 HRs from Smoak this year ... and maybe get Carp to come in and smack a dozen dingers by year end ... THEN, the club might be in a position to think about bringing in a big bat from FA at a position of need (VMart?) and get a ticket bounce.
Sometimes the math just doesn't work out for Dr. D...
Sez Sandy,
I don't pretend to understand the entire arb system ... but IIRC, Ackley signed a 6-year contract. So, regardless of when he comes up, isn't he ALREADY signed through 2015? Doesn't that sort of negate much of the SOP impact of Super2?
From my perspective, the situation with Ackley is that (assuming he is a SUCCESSFUL MLB player), the club will likely be looking to renegotiate a longer term deal in 2014 ... like they did with Felix. If he flops, of course, the whole arbitration concern becomes a non-issue.
Great point about the contract -- he did sign a 5-year contract.
However, the first year was his first partial year after the 2009 draft -- in which he didn't actually play at all. Year two was the 2010 minor league season, his debut pro season, split between AA and AAA. This is year three.
First question that comes to mind is whether it's even possible to negotatiate a contract extension with a Boras superstar who is in year 3-4 of his major league career. Does anybody know of any precedents whatsoever?
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G sez,
There were accelerators in Ackley's contract, bonuses for reaching MLB faster. So even though he's got a major league contract, they'd still owe him more money if he comes up faster.
I just bought tickets for going out in June. Their tickets are fairly expensive. Filling the place instead of whatever we're doing now would help pay that paltry extra price.
Ackley went 4-for-6 today, taking his OPS over 1.000 for the month of May. I still don't expect to see him until June but I wouldn't mind being pleasantly surprised.
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Let's see, Ackley has been paid $7.5M for his service through this year, next year, and 2013 ... that $7.5 can increase to $10M "depending on when he reaches the majors."
The details as to when Ackley earns his extra $2.5M aren't going to be available... but the bottom line is that he's going to be paid very well for non-arb years...
...........
A player needs three full years of service time before he gets his three years of arbitration -- except for the 1/6 of players each year who come up earliest, called "Super Two" players.
Assume that Ackley did not reach the majors until July, avoiding Super Two. He would then have to negotiate 2014 under a club-controls situation, correct? Whereas if he came up right now, he would likely have arbitration in 2014?
..........
Boras seems to have set up a situation in which a May 2011 callup of Ackley costs the Mariners both an arbitrated 2014 and some part of $2.5M as a "raise" for 2011.
Delaying Ackley's callup by another (say) month seems to avoid an arbitrated 2014 and some mysterious accelerator that would nick the M's for (??) $200,000 - $500,000 (??) immediately.
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=== Third-Order Logic Dept. ===
Which is puzzling. This makes it appear that Boras has created a double discouragement against calling Ackley up now.
You'd think that the greedy, second, cash penalty for early callup would --- > be an overreach and would usually just wind up losing the Super Two arbitration awards. ... right?
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But, of course, Scott Boras has done this before. If accelerator clauses in real life resulted merely in fewer Super Two arbitration cases, he's much too savvy to shoot himself in the foot like that.
It's a question I'd like to ask Zduriencik. Why would Boras risk his Super Two arbs with these accelerator clauses?
We can presume the answer would be, "He doesn't," but I'd like to know how. Perhaps Boras times the accelerator clauses so as to avoid conflict with Super Two? Maybe accelerator milestone 1 this year was Opening Day and milestone 2 is like the All-Star break?
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=== Some Money Spent is Money WELL Spent, Dept. ===
On the other hand, there is the question of what Ackley's month of service time would be worth to the Mariners.
Superstars make $4-5M per month.
A fangraphs author would pencil out Ackley's expected WAR during his early month and shake his head, "no go." But it might not be so simple.
A run in September, after you're 58-75, isn't worth as much as a run in May, when you are in the race. Neither is it worth 10% as much. Stick that in your Fangraphs pipe and smoke it, baby: these May runs are "high-leverage" runs. Verrrrrrrry high leverage. Read me the attendance last homestand, again?
Jack Zduriencik would tell you that the overall impact of Michael Pineda's April was not merely 7 runs gained or lost, equating to $3.4M or whatever. Zduriencik and Wedge would tell you that the impact of Pineda's April was to keep the season alive. To keep the ballclub's, and the fanbase's, hearts pumping.
There are those who judge the 2011 season to be hanging on the question of a fast infusion of offense. If Zduriencik and Wedge believed that Ackley (or any Rainier) could kick-start an offense, then Ackley's contribution in context could be similar to that of a superstar making $4M/month or more.
Life is rarely simple enough to be reduced to a formula with three variables in it... computers can't even drive cars, much less manage businesses...
.............
Of course, there's a bleacher section that scoffs at the Mariners for trying to win at all in 2011, that condemns them for every resource put toward 2011 at any expense to any future year.
But Ryan Langerhans and Milton Bradley and Michael Pineda (and, unfortunately, Jack Cust) can vouch for Jack Zduriencik's 2011 intentions.
..............
On the other hand, you'd have to be non-human to --- > have no feelings at all about whether Scott Boras wins. Having gone through the grinder already, who wants to hand him a big win on Dustin Ackley?
Siigggghhhhh.
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Per Cots:
Dustin Ackley of
5 years/$7.5M (2009-13)
- 5 years/$7.5M (2009-13)
- signed Major League contract with Seattle 8/17/09
- $6M signing bonus
- $1.5M in guaranteed salaries
- may earn additional $2.5M in salary depending on when he reaches majors
- drafted 2009 (1-2) (North Carolina)
- agent: Scott Boras
- ML service: 0.000
BABVA,
Dr D
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Comments
I know the Mariners have a reputation for penny pinching in times of trouble, but I don't honestly think this is a case like that. I doubt they would consider 2-3 milllion dollars plus another 1.5-2 million dollars in escallators to be a huge setback financially when spread out over several years. No...I think that they're holding Ackley back because they want him to work on his defense in a low stress environment. I also think this is why they're holding back Mike Carp. Defense in LF needs work so they're polishing him as much as they can there. I wouldn't do that in their place at this point...not with 2011 hanging by a thread and 2012 hinging on seeing what we have to start with over a nice large clump of ABs...but I think that's what they're doing...they're micromanaging out of a love for pretty defense.
I think their insistance of sticking with Ryan has more to do with that than anything as well...they figure if Ackley is only OK on defense, they need good glove men to his left and right.
...I woudl immediately do the following:
- DFA Ray and J. Wilson
- Demote Wilhelmson to AAA to stretch him out so he's ready WHEN Bedard blows out his arm by sneezing too hard
- Demote Peguero - he's not ready
- Call up Ackley, Carp, Gutierrez and Lueke to replace those four.
My line-up would be:
vs. RHP:
RF) Ichiro!
3B) Figgins
LF) Carp
1B) Smoak
CF) Gutierrez
DH) Kennedy/Cust
C) Olivo
SS) Ryan
2B) Ackley (let him get hot int he bigs before he moves up to the two hole)
vs. LHP:
RF) Ichiro!
3B) Figgins
CF) Gutierrez
1B) Smoak
LF) M. Wilson
C) Olivo
DH) Rodriguez
SS) Ryan
2B) Ackley
and I've have a 6-man pen featuring (from the bottom up) Cortest/Laffey/Lueke/Pauley/League/Wright (CL for now)
I want to see them keep Ackley down until hes shown that hes mastered AAA. Hes had a couple hot weeks and is at a solid 800 OPS. You want to know if hes mastered the level or if its a hot streak though before throwing him at the MLB level.
Luis Rodriguez needs a long look at the MLB level right now. Him and Mike Wilson need ABs to see what they've got (even though I'm not too high on Wilson).
I think the Pineda decision was Z's desperation to hold onto his job after a 100-loss season. The extra couple starts don't mean much in the big picture, but the lost year of control certainly does. Would rather be conservative with Ackley.
a) I think showing that our pitching is ready to go to war starting immediately means more than just a couple of starts or a few million in extra arb costs and year 7 which he might survive to pitch through.
b) I think you don't need a gazillion at bats in AAA to know that Ackley has mastered the level. It's not "hot weeks" like a surge in BABIP...it's "thermonuclear detonation...as in the power is way up, the K/BB is way down, the BB/PA is way up, the BABIP is back to NORMAL (not above normal like it could be a fluke) etc. Even a numbers guy like me agrees with Doc on this one...I understand your point, but in this specific case, I don't agree. YMMV
Up and down, in and out, through July.
Not saying they don't want to win, but I don't think they're sweating a lot about the first-half record.
Carp vs. Saunders vs. M.Wilson vs. Peguero -- Ryan vs. L-Rod -- Lueke vs. Cortes vs. TW vs. Pauley vs. Laffey etc.
Note that Wedge said they were bringing in Gray "to see if he's a fit" -- almost like it was spring training.
The second-half team -- with Ackley, Guti, Kelley and whomever they like out of the various trial runs -- I think they will want to "gel" and make a run to set them up for next season.
In that regard, a few weeks plus-or-minus on Ackley don't matter much to me. He'll be here when we have the 2012-and-going-forward roster in place.
I also expect that they will see if they can extract anything from another team for Ja.Wilson, and when Ackley will comes up will depend on that, too. They may need to play "chicken" for awhile, since other teams won't give up value if they think he'll be released.
I'd argue that the control years are even more important for fragile type SP because you want to go year-to-year with those types. Pineda now gets expensive a year earlier and if he is healthy for year 6, hes no longer on your team because you wanted 2 extra starts in a rebuilding season.
Ackley might be ready, but what if he isn't? His OPS right now isn't far off from 2010 AAA line. The Super 2 situation just pushes it into a situation where you can afford a 2-week wait. Z is on thin ice though, so I wouldn't be shocked if Ackley were called up early like Pineda was.
I get the impression that tonight's use of LRod as the starting SS was a clear trial run at seeing what a roster without J. Wilson would look like. It wouldn't surprise me if we see it again tomorrow or the next day. Ryan is a very known quantity in the field at SS, LRod a bit less so. He looked just fine there tonight (minus the one sailing throw). A Ryan/LRod tag team at SS is a very nice option, as Doc has suggested. So..you don't really need J.Wilson (go figure). And an Ackley move up is the result of that! Kennedy would then play 1B/2B/3B AND be a versatile guy you might just resign in the offseason.
Over/under on the Ackley promotion? Let's say May 30.
Place your bets.
I'll take the under. Well under.
Art of LAAofA drew the line in the sand on Boras and they saw their two targets go to their two biggest rivals. Coincidence?
I would call up Ackley tommorrow; maybe Boras would give us a rebate on Rendon ;-)
My take on "significant" ticket selling ... it is based "primarily" on *PERCEPTION* of what is coming tomorrow rather than what happened last month.
And if so, the Mariners' horrific attendance would reflect the fanbase's loss of hope.
One thing the M's can't afford is another season flushed down the drain early. IMHO the fan base here is just not sophisticated enough to come to the park because Taijuan Walker is looking good in the low minors...
The M's brass needs some on-field results ASAP -- their opinion, not mine, as reflected by the Cust, Pineda, etc decisions...
I get the impression that tonight's use of LRod as the starting SS was a clear trial run at seeing what a roster without J. Wilson would look like.
Wouldn't that be sweet. Hadn't thought of that.
In some cases we don't doubt that such handshakes have occurred... y'owe me one, bro'...
With Boras, ummm... :- )
I was very pleased to see L-Rod and Kennedy starting today...Jack Wilson needs to go. Immediately if not sooner. Kennedy homered today and those back 2 backers were the ballgame.
Kennedy needs more PT against righties, L-Rod needs more PT against all comers with Ryan getting most of his starts against lefties and in games when the groundballers who need the most help are pitching, and we need to see what we have in Peguero and M. Wilson...as well as Carp...as well as the various reliever options...as well as Ackley. And soon.
I know very little about this one...except that he's got a rubber arm, is a journeyman, and has a career 34/14 K/BB and 6 HR in 54 innings. Think he can help this club?
POTD comin' up.
But did everybody see that Shawn Kelley threw a good inning tonight? Now there's a short man.
You're still not hearing me, Doc. The 2011 season was lost (to the bulk of the fans) before it started. NOTHING the club did in April was going to change that. Oh, if Bradley had hit .900 and Saunders .800 ... and the club was 18-10 instead of 13-15 at the end of April, there would've been a little buzz. But, "most" fans would shrug and say ... "I'll believe it when they're up 5 games in August."
As for the rest ... The choice on Pineda was based on a simple reality ... you need 5 SPs in modern baseball. Coming into 2011, the Ms had a pitching situation that was ... difficult. They brought in a number of desperation reclamation arms into camp. They *ALL* failed. Pineda wasn't on the opening day roster due to a hope of winning THIS year. He was there because he beat the living crap out of every other rotation candidate the club auditioned.
Cust was brought in right after Bradley got arrested. And then Guti went on the DL. So, Bradley ended up playing a grand total of ONE (1) game at DH. If Guti is around, no way is THAT happening. If you ask me, the reason Cust wasn't DFAed along with Bradley and Langerhans is because the club is waiting to get comfortable with the idea that Guti is going to be playing regularly this year. The Guti injury *FORCED* the club to do a number of things in April that I am certain were not in the original design.
Wouldn't surprise me to see Guti and Ackley arrive in the same car.
But, I'm not under the delusion that the club is under the delusion they have a shot at winning anything THIS year. I think their moves have been primarily about what is best for the prospects. I think the Peguero maneuver is interesting, in that he was up, then down, then up again so quickly. I suspect he admitted to being a bit overwhelmed the first time around - (which seemed to happen to Leuke, also). It's not unusual for a kid to be a little awestruck during their first taste of the bigs - (which is why the September callups are standard - it mitigates the 'first time jitter' stage for many of these kids). I expect Lueke will return shortly, also.
I suspect when Ackley comes up, he's as likely to put up a near clone of Cust's slashline for 6 weeks before he settles in.
I would argue that (when Cust goes - and he WILL go soon) - that the club will have in short order gotten rid of its 3rd, 4th and 5th best bats on the team. The concept that it is reasonable to assess dumping your 3/4/5 best bats ... on a team with an 85 OPS+ ... (while retaining the rookie with the 40 OPS+ and recalling the rookie with the -6 OPS+) is because you're trying to win *NOW* ... strikes me as ... I'm sorry, I cannot come up with a word that wouldn't come across as insulting.
I stated weeks ago that Ryan is continuing to play short because Jack Wilson has been a dead man walking all season. The club knew REGARDLESS OF PERFORMANCE that Jack Wilson was going to be the victim when Ackley comes up in Spring Training ... and therefore, any idea of playing Wilson at short (outside of an emergency) were pointless, regardless of what impact it had on the 2011 record.
I look at the team and see every move in a context of ... "what is best for the prospect?" I see the injuries forcing the hand of the club down paths it would've rather not gone. But, even there I see 'long term' over short term decisions.
I think a (very minor) factor in Pineda up is that offense is weakest in April. Let the kid get in some innings when the air is heavy and the hitters haven't locked in their timing. Let the kid bats find their timing in Tacoma ... no pressure ... take your time.
I see them 'trying' to stagger the rookie callups - (influenced by injury, though), so they can concentrate on one newbie at a time.
I think the Mike Wilson move was a reward for being a consumate organizational guy ... (just like the club rewarded Tui with a week on the bench after a stellar ST when Ichiro got hurt).
SOMETIMES, you reward guys, not because you expect them to succeed, but because it is the right thing to do, and it builds a sense of community. And when Wilson goes back down, (and he will go back down), he can tell all the AAA players it was the best couple of weeks of his life.
The thing is - you've GOT to fill your 25-man roster, regardless of what is best for your prospects. So, you rent your Kennedys and Langerhanses until the time is right for your prospects. And you develop your prospects as "best you can" ... not knowing ahead of time how quickly player X or player Y will adapt. I think the "slow" moves tend to be DFAs, simply because there is no recovery if/when the prospects tank. You can juggle optionable players, but once Bradley or Jack Wilson or Cust is "cut" -- you cannot unring that bell. So, those moves tend to happen slower than fans would like.
...and he will definitely be replacing Ray.
So that leaves our pen at:
CL) League
SUR) Wright
SUL) Laffey-Taffey
MR) Kelley
MR) Pauley
LR) Gray
Then if we get Lueke back, we can either go back to a 7-man pen or cut Gray...but there's real depth there now.
I don't think Z thought his club would be LIKELY to win the west in 2011...but I do think he's trying to teach his ballclub that they have to FIGHT TO WIN...even if they're currently short-handed...and you can't get your guys into the fight if you hold back the help they need when he's ready just to save some green. They called up Pineda with the club because Z wants his club to fight to win...to be winners even if they can't win the division yet.
....Most of you know it, but because no one here has said it I'll give the shout out. Ackley last 10 games.
2:1 eye
.425 AVG.
.510 OBP.
.625 SLG.
1.135 OPS.
Keep her comming kid.
There's a big difference between Pineda and Ackley. Pineda only needed to be kept down for three meaningless starts instead of 2+ months; and more importantly, it was about retaining him for an extra year not about being cheap. 3 starts for 33 starts, that was the exchange.
Ackley is an entirely financial based decision. Whether the M's call him up tomorrow or they wait until August, he'll be under their control thru 2017. In fact, whatever time he spends in the minors this season *reduces* his overall Major League time under the M's control. They're getting less Major League production value by leaving him in the minors. The only benefit to keeping Ackley in the minors is the $2.5 mil or whatever the M's will save if his callup is late.
There is no excuse for the M's to be cheap here. They were the *worst* team in the league last year, and it was legit - Felix won the Cy Young, Ichiro was productive for 162 games, Fister/Vargas exceeded all expectations, the bullpen was one of the best in the AL. Worst in the league was the actual performance level with everything going right, and their weak areas were the *easiest* on a roster to improve. What did the front office do in the off-season? Absolutely NOTHING!
They could have significantly improved this team with minimal effort, and instead chose to sleep through the winter. The very least they could do now is field the best possible team from within the organization.
The rip on Ackley was he couldn't hit LH's. He's now improved his line against LH up to .275/.444/.450, even better than against RH's. He's got 33 BB's to 24 K's. In the month of May, he's hitting .359/.475/.594. If the defense is a concern, then he can be DH and wedged into the already existing rotations at 2B and LF.
The M's 4-5-6 hitters are currently Cust-Olivo-Kennedy. Peguero and Wilson are competing for starting LF. Saunders could literally end up with the worst offensive season by an everyday player this decade. There's no reason for a player like Ackley to be wasting away in the minors over a callup bonus.
3-for-5 (HR, 2 singles), May OPS up to 1.120. Tied with Smoak in HR now.
more importantly, it was about retaining him for an extra year not about being cheap. 3 starts for 33 starts, that was the exchange.
Perhaps we ought to take note of the fact that mega-hype rookies never arrive in the big leagues on April 15...
The moment that a Buster Posey or Stephen Strasburg or Dustin Ackley (or Michael Pineda) fails to make the Opening Day roster -- after torching ST --
His agent is on the phone yelling and calling baloney and the GM is protesting that the kid needs this or that. Even the Nationals' GM was forced into "seeding" the papers with bogus reasons that Strasburg would not be successful in April.
...........
Teams could call up all their rookies on April 15 if they liked, but they'd be slapped with a blizzard of grievances from the union and they would lose those grievances.
Hence the eye-rolling newspaper arguments on EVERY hyped rookie, where the clubs lay the basis for winning grievances. They go to extreme lengths to establish this underlayer of sincerity on the delayed callups.
............
If you wanted to rip Pineda off a year of FA, after he obviously deserved to be a big leaguer, you'd have to keep him down a good part of the 2011 season. He might be coming up now, and the M's might be 10-31 now and mailing in the season.
3 starts against 33? It was more like the first 1/3 of the 2011 season, vs. all of the year-7 season, when Pineda might be throwing 88 mph rather than 98 mph.
..........
There is also the question of simple fairness. Michael Pineda is one of the best pitchers in the big leagues. It's just not fair to freeze him out.
Except for that, agree 100% :- )
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As G-Money said, you've had him this long at 2B ... and now by an amazing financial coincidence, you feel that it's the next three weeks that are critical to his defensive readiness? :- )
What is amusing, to the distant observer, is the amount of energy that teams expend in --- > trying to publicly establish the on-field basis for their freezing out talent that obviously should be in the bigs.
The Mariners have never cared what the public thought about what they do in terms of roster decisions. They issue statements only as they pertain to something like this ...
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Jack Wilson, by the way, is bopping along at -14 runs per season UZR.
Replacing Jack Wilson and Adam Kennedy with Ackley costs the M's ZERO defense -- it probably GAINS them defense -- and they know that.
The hip cyber-debate is over how much defense Ackley would cost them. It's a shibboleth. Ackley is young, quick, instinctive and the M's infield would be better with the cat-quick Ackley than with Jack Wilson or an aging Adam Kennedy.
..........
But, as G noted, in three weeks, Dustin Ackley's defense will suddenly be "better than people think."
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They want Ackley to get his "reps" so that he doesn't make a few bonehead plays in the spotlight and damage his progress defensively (and offensively) by starting to "play scared" with the glove.
Wanting to get him "real-time" "game-speed" decision-making skills in a variety of permutations (that you can't re-create in drills) is not the same as saying "we still need to figure out if he can play second in the majors."
Plausible, anyway. But still probably only part of the "cover story." :)
But what do you do with G-Money's point? :- ) Why is this next two-three weeks the key?
He's going to get a couple of dozen game chances. He wouldn't be similarly-served by taking a couple hundred grounders a day with the big league crew?
In three weeks he's gonna be Ready with a capital R. Wonder how they know that he won't need another three weeks after that...
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They figured out over the off-season exactly how many "reps" he would need in order to ensure that he would be "game-speed-ready."
By pure coincidence, they concluded that early-mid-June would be pretty much right on. We can't deviate from the schedule now . . . "We've got the paperwork right here."
How do you disprove it? :)
and neither can Scott Boras :- )