=== Fister's Plus Fastball ===
Fister's heater is a plus pitch in its own right.
You heard Dr. D whine all through 2010 about Fister leading the league* in FB percentage thrown, but as much pressure as the catchers put on that 88 heater, it was the gift that kept on giving. It still had an excellent +0.7 runs / 100 value.
Fister's fastball is "plus" because of his supreme command, its downward plane, and all that. But just recently we've discovered that tall, overhand pitchers like Fister add an apparent 4-8 mph (!) to their heaters because of their release points and angles. Read this: The Best Optical Illusion in Baseball.
Ian Snell threw 93 and got smashed because, at his low release point and with his short stride, he threw an effective 88. Fister's the opposite. 88-89 from him (or Chris Young, or Jeff Neimann, a BABVA roto claim) is equal to 93 from another pitcher.
..........
Don Wakamatsu brilliantly realized, very early, that Doug Fister's fastball was FAR better than its 88 gun reading suggested. He mentioned its angle and location. He was right. What he seems not to have realized was the 88 vs 93 optical illusion. (Obviously the M's didn't realize this vis-a-vis Snell.)
So, no wonder that the Tigers were defending Fister's FB as though it were David Aardsma's. And no wonder that when he finally starts changing speed off it, they're in trouble.
.
=== The Change ===
We almost forget that Fister got to the bigs on his parachute change. His lifetime run value on it is 1.7 runs saved per 100 changeups thrown, making it easily a "plus" ML pitch.
Unfortunately, Fister only threw it 14% of the time last year, because Rob Johnson and Adam Moore were infatuated with watching Doogie move his FB all around the strike zone wherever they held their mitts.
But now come on. That's THREE real good pitches? Orel Hershiser said, "command two pitches, win. Command three pitches, dominate."
If Doug Fister now has three BTA (better than average) pitches, and if Miguel Olivo knows how to use them -- as so far he seems to -- then Fister is shortly going to become a ver well-known major leaguer.
.
=== Cinnamon Latte Dept. ===
A chef once argued with me that coffee with cream was a "superior" beverage to plain black coffee.
I thought he was being a gomer, but suddenly he brought me up to speed on the fact that more complex flavors hold one's interest better over the long term. Coffee with cream is a richer, more complex flavor, he pointed out.
.
In 2010, Doug Fister was pitching a verrrrrrrrry simple game. Hitters didn't strike out because they had very few variations to defend.
In 2011, hitters have had a vastly more complex game to deal with. And it is showing in those curve ball results. C'mon. 19 of 23 strikes? Not one hit into fair territory?
Now all of a sudden he comes back fastball and the ball is by them, for some strange reason...
.
=== Strikeouts ===
It's not often that one game has overthrown my evaluation of a pitcher like Tuesday's just did. But Doug Fister, add 25 change curve auto-strikes a game, now that is a different subject.
Are the Mariners willing to view Fister as an Aaron Sele -- with a better fastball, and add a changeup? We hope so.
.
No matter how good a pitcher looks, he's not going to be an impact pitcher at 4 strikeouts per ballgame. Fister's impact is firmly capped by his strikeout rate.
But! With Miguel Olivo calling for that yellow hammer, Doug Fister has now fanned 12 hitters in his last 13 innings. And it looks to me like not much of an accident.
I don't say that Doogie is going to fan 8 men per game, Greg Maddux style. But if he fans 6, he is going to make a lot of money in this game. 'Cause that dude can pitch.
.
Eyes slideways,
Dr D
I love watching a pitcher with "tall" mechanics that can execute the fastball/curveball/change attack. All three of those pitches coming from a high release point - sheesh, you can just see how confusing it is to the hitter.
But Fister isn't our best starter, or our second-best. If Bedard comes around with his ridiculous luck and HR/F rates Fister won't be better than him either. And have I mentioned Jason Vargas has looked both unlucky and sharp this year?
A guy with sneaky FB that he can paint anywhere and offspeed offerings that get strikes at will can do just fine in this game. I like that early on we've changed from more reliance on the curve to more on the changeup. I think there are more Ks in Fister's game. He's gonna get shelled when he doesn't have his FB command...but how often does that happen?
His game is set up for ease and longevity. In a stadium where it's hard to hurt him with the HR, and with a bit more off-speed to go with his plate-painting FB, Fister may be around for the long haul.
How much better can it get than having a guy with 2 plus pitches as perhaps the #4 guy in your rotation? If you can get 3 WAR contributions from the back end of your rotation and have top-line starters, all you should need is a BIT of offense to make some noise.
I know we can't manage a lot of offense yet, but the rotation should show a lot better as we move along and plate a few more runs - and Felix and Bedard get better results from their stuff.
It should still be a very interesting year.
~G
Vargas notched a QS in 21 of 31 starts last year (68%). Fister did in 13 of 28 (46%). If we can bank on similar performances, these two are definitely championship caliber 4-5 starters. Don't need anything more, just enough to give you a chance to win some of the backend rotation games in the regular season.
Felix is the ace of aces, Pineda should be fine as a #2.
Bedard is really the wild card. If he falls to 5.00 ERA pitching or gets hurt again, the M's are at a severe disadvantage. If he's pitching like his days in Baltimore, the rotation can go up against any other rotation in the AL.
That maybe the same thing can be said of Aaron Laffey, his peripherals look strikingly similar to Doug Fister so far (with the exception being that all of his pitches have a positive run value by fangraphs). This is still admittedly very early, and coming a day after he got to rack up his swinging strike rate (he got 6! last night) against a lineup that was likely swinging for the fences with reckless abandon after going from an 8-2 deficit to a 13-2 deficit while Laffey was in the game.
Still, it's nice to have seen Laffey hold it together while half the bullpen can't seem to stop falling apart.
In 2001, the blizzard of wins was really due to the fact that the M's 3-4-5 starters were so much better than the average team's.
It didn't help them in the postseason, but a really good 3-4-5 can be the basis for long winning streaks in the dog days of summer.
............
Of course, the 2001 M's had the best offense in the league, too -- #1 in runs scored and #1 in runs prevented, IIRC. But the 2001 M's played well very consistently. It didn't have Pedro one day and a meatball the next day: it had lockdown pitching every day.
A terrific BOR can cherrypick you a lot of wins over other teams' meatball starters.
Yesterday was a tantalizing one-day echo of 2001: the Tigers fielded a questionable SP, Phil Coke ... the #5 starter Fister threw like an Opening Day starter ... a few batted balls landed between fielders ... and the M's victory was ridiculously easy.
M's might not be as far away as people think. It shouldn't be that hard to get a 90 OPS+ going.
.
Well, not as hard today, but still - the Brendan Ryans of the world are working counts like crazy. Our patient score is off the charts. We can't DO anything with it because we've got a few too many slumping/sucky hitters, but the basics are there.
Swap out Wilson and Figgins for Ackley and Rendon and see where you get. If the starters get their luck normalized and get back to last year's production level - or better - then yeah, we won't be that far away.
Right now, the team is just too weak at the plate to overcome any bad-luck bounces that affect our pitching. That tends to lead to long losing streaks when your streak-stoppers like Felix have bad games.
But there's nothing inherently wrong with our strategy, and it may bear good fruit far sooner than later. We just need some luck to go our way for once to get that ball rolling, and then for better hitters to adopt this approach with more effective results.
That ain't impossible. It's a long season, and it can't rain all the time.
~G
Yesterday was a tantalizing one-day echo of 2001: the Tigers fielded a questionable SP, Phil Coke ...
Interesting you should mention Coke. He's my fantasy baseball MVP.
Forget Lincecum, Verlander, Masterson, Dunn, Markakis, Ichiro....
If I beat BABVA in one or both games this week, it will be thanks to Mr. Coke's contributions to my effort. Not sure I could win without him!
Same thing with Tim Lincecum. He leaps 10 feet off the mound, does the splits and delivers a fast ball strike that literally leaps out of his hand. The distance between release point and home plate is less than other pitchers. Also Fister has gravity on his side. That overhand fastball drops a little quicker than it does for most pitchers.
I want to cross-reference this with the article Doc cited here.
Especially in light of the fact that Scott Patterson actually is in the Mariners organization -- though he was demoted from Tacoma to Jackson for no good reason (other than to make room for Manny Delcarmen and the like). Not because of his stats.
Learn something from Fister's success -- Reject Ray, Promote Patterson!
In spite of O's before Hoes heroic domination of BABVA in the AL-only league last week, 265.70 to 184.72, it is with great humility that we acknowledge we couldn't get things done despite being heavy favorites in the 20-team league. Chinese Democracy entered the week with 12 scheduled starts, but rainouts and bad performances cut that down to 9 actual starts resulting in a 208.83 to 213.08 loss. Furthermore, it's worth noting that the major cancellation on the final day - Sam LeCure of Cincy - was a strong candidate for negative points if he had indeed started.
Chinese Democracy now looks to beat "SBS White Sox" for recovery in the standings, and vows vengeance in the next matchup against BABVA - which is apparently the final week of the season.
Amen! Promote Patterson. Check out his winter league stats here. http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&sid=l135&cid=693&y=2010
Note some of the other players with stats not as good as Patterson. Guy can't catch a break. Patterson is a baseball fanatic and a fan favorite. Just check out stories on him playing wiffle ball with kids during rain delays and going through player cards with fans at his table during fan appreciation luncheons. Send him up and see what he can do. Worst case - he is no better than the last man in the rotation. Best case he is an improvement. Just my 2c.
2 more scoreless innings for Patterson, dropping his ERA to 1.74, and still yet to yield a walk or a HR in 10.1 IP, with 9 K.
Justin Miller just opted out of Tacoma, so let's hope (for Martin and whiffle ball fans everywhere) that Patterson at least gets back to AAA.