Q. How was the fastball?
A. Harder and wilder. Rather than being 94-98 with plus-plus command ... this time it was 97-99, even 100!, with only plus command.
Yes, that considers the variations between guns. That ball was getting on the Royals every blinkin' inch as fast as the Big Unit got it there.
That was Randy Johnson velo. Not "nearly" Unit velo. That was Randy Johnson velocity. The 1995 version.
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Q. Was it too wild? Why do you say the command was "plus"?
A. No, it was still plus command - considerably better location than you'd get from, say, the young Josh Beckett or Dwight Gooden.
I know you think I'm guessing :- ) so lemme give yer an example:
This is the walk to Dyson in the third (Pineda only walked two in the first 5 innings, including this one). It's just an example.
Notice very carefully -- on the DVR, too -- that Pineda attempted to locate EVERY pitch. There were no challenge fastballs. This was the strategy:
Felix always had the confidence to over-challenge. Pineda pitches the entire game this way, carefully avoiding pitches that might be hit for distance.
The only ML pitchers who try to pitch this way are guys with plus command. When Pineda walks a couple guys, bear in mind that his walks are different: he is not giving in.
..........
Notice also that on a 3-2 count, Pineda screamed the pitch in there at 100 mph !! and HIT the knees. The ump gave Dyson a walk. Now that is pure baloney. 3-2 and that's not "too close to take"?
Doug Fister would join a monastery to throw that pitch one time in his life, and to the press, it's nothing more than a walk - evidence that Pineda isn't ready. :- )
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Q. How was the 85-89 power curve?
A. We discuss it next article. 25 hammers, 19 strikes, 0 hits. vs. a stacked lefty lineup. You think you can take it from there?
Among the great RHP's who threw two pitches, both of which were shaped just like Pineda's:
We won't even go into all the Walter Johnsons, Don Drysdales, Sam McDowells, Herb Scores and Smokey Joe Woods 'cause lotsa people think human reflexes were different two or three generations ago...
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Q. What does SSI judge the 12-6 hammer, objectively speaking?
A. Believe me, if it were on a lesser pitcher, it would be plus.
On Pineda, with that 12-6 hammer coming off a 98 fastball, it's not a 60-70 pitch; it's been 80 the last two games.
Yes, Mr. Scout, Michael Pineda's slider has been plus-plus-plus -- with the third plus.
...........
Consider this: Sunday, his yellow hammer averaged 86 mph and topped at 89 mph. That is Jason Vargas' fastball. Think about it. With a hard late 12-6 snap.
Sunday, he threw it 25 times, 19 for strikes, 0 base hits, 28% swinging strikes. Against a lefty lineup. What the deuce do you want?
He is getting Erik Bedard results with it. The only reason people don't /cosign on the brilliance of his 12-to-6 hammer is that they were told not to.
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For twenty years, we listened to hitters complain about Nolan Ryan's, and Randy Johnson's frisbees: "It's as hard as a fastball. That's not fair."
Has anybody noticed that Pineda's hammer has fastball velo?
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Q. Is that unique?
A. No, a few other SP's legitimately throw hammers in the 85-88 range: Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Verlander, David Price, a couple others. Felix's power slider hits 89, as does Pineda's.
I don't notice that any of them have small strikeouts totals.
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There was some lefty hitter about the 3rd or 4th, Pineda whiffed him on a slider, the guy started his bat before the ball was out of Pineda's hand. The ball popped a parachute and the LHB screwed himself into the ground, strike three.
Any change of speed, off a 98 fastball, and the hitters are done before they get there. C'mon. This is baseball 101.
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Q. Gotta give some weaknesses if it's a pretend crosscheck.
A. Namely: he tired in the 6th inning, which is too early. He fell behind a few counts, because he almost never centers a pitch.
In the 6th, his velo dropped off to 93-95. So sue him. He used up all his 98's and 99's. But then issued his second real walk of the game:
And, after the IBB to Butler, boom, it looks like he walked four guys....
He reached back for one last bullet, a jam pitch to Ka'aihue. It hit 97. Groundout, end of inning, and Pineda was done. 94 pitches.
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Q. Okay, let's say for the sake of argument that SSI does understand Pineda better than any other cyber-rats. What's next, then?
A. IFF Michael Pineda executed exactly these pitches, for 25-30 more starts, then he would be one of the ten best SP's in the American League and maybe THE best.
There is a difference between Bob Gibson and Michael Pineda: Gibson did it for 500 starts and Pineda did it for three.
But that doesn't mean that Pineda is throwing any worse than Gibson did. Of course, you could say the same about other guys who came and went. Bobby Witt comes to mind. Kerry Wood. Juan Guzman.
We're not guaranteeing the Hall; we're pointing out a simple fact. That Michael Pineda has pitched three games and pitched like Bob Gibson in all three.
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Q. Will he execute these pitches?
A. If he doesn't get hurt, then I don't know why he'd suddenly lose his command, do you? He's had it since he was 18. It's who he is.
Right now, Michael Pineda is J.R. Richard or Doc Gooden, three starts in.
B'lee DAT.
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Q. Will the skepticism continue?
A. After March 16, Pineda gave up a few runs in ST and we got into a big argument... suddenly it hit me, and I wrote, "You know, I'll just let him throw a couple wipeout games and everybody will forget these arguments."
I guess if people want to continue to question Pineda, the best thing is just to watch him pitch, what?
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Mike Hargrove his ownself watched Ichiro and concluded, "4th outfielder."
Sometimes folks need a year's statline: Show me the 200 IP, 17-5, 3.25, 180 strikeouts and then we'll talk star. They recognize talent by looking at accomplishments.
But there are scouts, smart and decisive, who can tell a star by watching him perform. Many of these, including Jack Zduriencik, knew that Michael Pineda deserved to be in the big leagues.
The M's might be losing games, but I know three AL West teams that are verrrrry unhappy campers about Seattle's #1 and #1a killers right now.
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Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid,
Dr D
Looking like a monster. The Ms could lose 95 games this season and it won't matter if Pineda and Smoak continue what they're doing.
For the first time in a while, our prospects are panning out.
Now why did you draft Phil Hughes over Pineda, Doc (from the guy that drafted Cuddyer over him)? :-)
I'm simply astonished by how Pineda is dominating lineups in his outings. Never never dreamed he would have been so good so early. It's even hard to imagine what kind of impact he's going to have when his pitches repertoire is fully developed. Amazing.
Cause he be MINE! :) I'll take 25 more starts just like these first three, thanky.
And if I hear about this 9,000 times over the next five years I'll fully deserve it.
Gather round and hear ye a tale of sordid, unvarnished greeeed...
1. The week before, in Justin's draft, there were guys like David Ortiz, Jorge Posada (as a C!) and Ricky Nolasco available in rounds 6-10.
2. I'd stuffed my roster with guys I thought were falling 25, 50, 75 slots.
3. And the Yahoo draft "suggester" still had Pineda and Bedard nowhere in sight. 80-90% of picks were players visible in the top 20 lines of the Yahoo auto-picker.
4. So drafting rounds 11-12 (mixed league) I took both Pineda and Bedard around the corner. Had my cake and ate it too.
.................
In the SSI league, Phil Hughes was the #7 starter overall -- equivalent to guys like Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver, because our points system over-weights W's and QS's, and Hughes pitches for the Yankees. PECOTA also foresaw a big year for Hughes.
I took Hughes in round 6, far later than the other top-10 AL starters went.
................
Drafting last in the AL-only league, with double-picking #12/13 etc, rounds 7 and 8 came up and I wanted Pineda/Bedard... but I had no outfielders whatsoever, and took Damon and Nishioka on the turn ..... gambling desperately that I'd again get to have my cake and eat it too.
...............
With TWO picks left and Matty up at #10 in round 9, both were there for me and for the first time in the draft I was going to draft in two seconds each...
Matt took Pineda and I broke down in hysterical sobbing.
................
Did get Bedard and Ka'aihue, who was pegged by PECOTA as a top-25 overall in our points system, and Dallas Braden (LOL) and J.D. Drew even 25 picks after that.
Matt read my blog. That was the last I saw of the 2011 roto championship.
Anybody want to buy a pencil for a nickel?
................
It's probably been 5+ leagues since I drafted a Mariner, but in two leagues the BABVAns did wind up with Pineda and Bedard in 3 of 4 opportunities. That 4th one, Matt took my 2011 SSI championship away from me.
:sob:
Is the one that should be at the top of Big Blog.
Among other benefits, the blog-o-sphere would then enjoy Pineda's emergence without inhibition, as opposed to apologizing for his dominance and asking Authority's permission to believe that Pineda is great. The stuff I read around the 'net (in comments) after a Michael Pineda start makes me queasy.
These years-long debates linger only because folks stay married to out-of-date opinions.
:50 cpoints:
In the original 20-team keeper league that Taro is consistently at the top of, I took Pineda in the fairly early rounds last year after reading one the POTD's here. What tipped the scales for me was his jump in SIZE. I gambled that he would maintain his command and if he did, he would be a total beast. Nice to have that pan out.
Doc, you have #1 waiver priority and you still have a monster team.. I'd say your fine. What if Pujols get traded to the AL? Its game over.
It looks like its going to be a dogfight in your division.
Matt's team is pretty dang good. He led the league in points in Week 1. The Pineda and Hafner picks are golden.
Since this thread drift is pretty strong ...
Thanks to a little help from my friend (Taro), I managed to squeak out a slim victory in week one, where I went to bed with Ogando losing, CC winning, and figuring even a save by Rivera wouldn't be enough to bail me. The NDs for both SPs was huuuuuge.
But, my real comment is -- I REALLY don't like the Yahoo interface. Ogando started the year as an RP - so I had to make a choice a week ago whether to plug him into one of my RP slots. I gambled on that and won. (fair enough).
But, in reading the rules for how pitchers get classified as SPs ... I found somewhere in the help file that a 3rd start gives a player the SP "tag". The Sunday start was the 3rd for Ogando. I was hoping to move him into my rotation and start using my 3rd closer. But, as of Monday morning, he's still only shown as an RP.
I also messed up, thinking I could set my lineup Monday morning for this week, only to find out that I've got to set it Sunday night, (before the games are complete, I guess).
At this point, I'm wondering if Ogando is EVER going to get the SP tag. (grrr)
In any case, I didn't come into the league with any expectation of being very competitive, (not NEARLY enough research time to come up to speed to swim with these sharks). But, it's irksome anyway when the game system gets in the way of being even nominally competent.
(You must understand - I played at Sandbox back at the turn of the century - and back THEN, I was used to DAILY lineup changes that were allowable up to 10 minutes before the first game was played).
Actually, looks like Ogando *is* listed as a SP, RP.
RP's get a decent amount of points for the season, but it's very hard to predict when those points will happen. Ace closers have lots of weeks with 35+ points and lots of weeks with below 13 points.
Since this league is H2H, you don't want to roll the dice if you don't have to. If you have the ability to get SP points from a RP slot, you always want to do it. Of course, most teams don't have that luxury.
Hey Doc...I am now *VERY* glad I didn't try to get greedy. It was between Pineda and trying to get fatter offensively with a primo DH/1B or a big OF bat...I decided that you were coming up, had a huge mancrush on Pineda and he wouldn't come around to me again, but the OF would...so...narrowly avoided having a really terrible rotation and instead...have a pretty good one. :) The one thing I don't like about my team...it's not set up to make trades. I have no multi-position flexibility at all (aside from DeJesus) and only one extra SP and one mediocre extra RP. Meaning...this is going to be a boring year for me (not much trade action) and I'm screwed injstantly if one of my big cogs goes down for a long time.
I'd agree that a starter scheduled to appear twice is a better option than a closer, (which is why when I was forced to choose last week - I went with Ogando). But, a starter with only 1 guaranteed start vs. a closer ... that math isn't so cut and dried.
In any case, I'll be setting my lineup by Sunday this week, regardless.
Someone like Ogando, pitching for the Rangers, is definitely worth the risk. Obviously, any one-start week that results in a loss is probably going to net you negative points, but a bad outing from a closer hurts just as much as a loss from a SP (and oftentimes BSv's also lead to L's).
Saves are completely unpredictable. Cleveland went 4-2 last week, and still their ace closer only pitched 2.1 IP. Even when a team is hot, you can't predict if there will be save opportunities and that's really the only situation that a RP will be netting enough points to compete with a start.
Your everyday 6 IP, 2-3 ER, 4-6 K quality start is going to be worth 20+ points. No RP in any given week can be assumed to score that high. If you have a SP who can be reasonably expected to score a QS in most starts (and I think Ogando qualifies), he should be active over your third best RP.
Obviously, if you don't have a quality SP to step in, you do whatever you can to field a full active roster. But if you were to put Ogando on the trade blocks, have a feeling you could get back any closer in the AL you want - but again, probably wouldn't be smart to do that type of trade even if it was available.
Yes, closer appearances are erratic. But, the notion that starter production isn't also erratic is false.
In a 1-start week, a starter can get over 30 points. He can also get -10.
While you are not guaranteed a closer will appear a certain number of times - barring injury, closers will appear about 60 times a year. That's a tad over twice a week (on average) given a 27 week season. The "average" week is 2 appearances.
But, when I compare my BEST starters stats (from 2010 - Lackey) to my current 3 closers stats, here is what I see for their "average" points per week.
Rivera = 12.12
Paplebon = 12.47
Fuentes = 9.37
Lackey = 13.06
The difference between Rivera & Paplebon (327 and 336) and Lackey (352) is VERY small.
Starters average about 1.3 starts per week. So, knock 1/3 off that SP average - and the closer weekly average is HIGHER than the SP weekly average.
All that said - the choice of closer vs. SP should be a week-to-week thing (assuming you've got players with an option). If the closer's team plays 7 games and the SP only has 1 start, it would have to be a REAL juicy start for the SP for me to go that route. If the SP is facing a high octane offense, or if he is on the road ... more considerations for lineup sloshing.
In the end, I got smacked last week because Lackey's start got rained out - and they opted to skip him, so my one of my 1-start SPs became a 0-start SP.
Is that...a siren? A fire truck? Perhaps a squad car? Nope...nope...I think it's...yep...it sure is...that's the WAAAAAAAMMMBULENCE.
Are you really moaning and groaning about losing one or two bullpen appearances and a start? There are guys in this league who've lost THREE PLAYERS. :) For long periods! :)
That's how the game is played, my man.
... was intended to be primarily about the interface at Yahoo, not the impact on my score.
My gripe wasn't really about whether Ogando or a reliever was in my lineup this week - but that I didn't see the SP tag on Ogando until Tuesday ... (wasn't there Monday morning when I checked, which was still too late to do anything about it). So, I didn't even get the option to make the choice.
Players get hurt. I get that. (VMart hits the DL a day after I choose to bench Weiters ... oh, well - that's the game, as you correctly note). Such are the realities in a weekly lineup setup.
My opinion of the Yahoo interface and setup was poor from day one and just continues to get worse. That's especially annoying when I played at a free sight a decade ago that was far superior.
And I would agree that their system was better. I don't like that I can't make daily line-up changes...but...I think that's actually a setting the commish can pick prior to the season even in Yahoo...though...correct me if I'm wrong. But I do agree that Yahoo has an interface with some irksome features. It's still better than any of the other free fantasy sites available today and the game is still inherently fun. I was just teasing you though...all meant in fun.