Geoffy bats for a 320/400/600 slash line on his analysis of the M's roster decisions impending.
He covers not only the Strat-O-Matic logic, the WAR-vs-WAR type thinking that you'd see covered anywhere else ... but also extends his reporting to capture the things that an actual shot-caller, such as Jack Zduriencik, will be thinking about:
- Strat-O-Matic indicators based on pure performance
- Political realities (you couldn't admit a Cust mistake* in April in the conference room)
- Clubhouse realities
- "Mission statement": losing 88 vs 105 and the attendance issue
Gutierrez and Aardsma are coming back, and every move you make has serious drawbacks. How would SSI deal?
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=== 6-Man Bullpen ===
This ballclub does have the best #1 starter in the American League, might have the best #2 starter (Pineda), probably does have the best #3 starter (Bedard, who if healthy could easily lead the league in FIP), has one of the better #4 starter/run prevention mechanism in the AL in Jason "Safeco" Vargas, and has a #5 starter running a 150 ERA+.
If this ballclub can't go with six relievers, no club can.
We didn't say two relievers. We said six. Six relievers are a lot, especially when Tom Wilhelmsen and Jamey Wright can throw 100 innings each.
........
So: When Guti returned, my preferred solution would be to cut Aaron Laffey.
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=== Aardsma for Ray ==
They're the same type of pitcher -- wild fastballs in Safeco. They're the same role (Ray has been pitching the 8th). It's a seamless swap.
It was an interesting experiment, the idea that Chris Ray's wild fastball might achieve the same effect that Aardsma's did.
It hasn't:
- 2011 K rate -- Ray has 0 strikeouts total, in 5 different games
- 2011 O-swings -- Only 21% swings on "balls," compared to 25-27% usual for him
- 2011 Z-swings -- Fully 78% launches by batters on strikes, compared to 68% normal
- 2011 SW% - A piddling 5.2% swings and misses
- 2011 SF% - Ray is throwing tons of split-fingers in his desperation to get a few swings and misses
SSI doesn't care about one painful inning. It does care that Ray isn't fooling anybody, and that Ray was an SSI Best Bust before he ever got here.
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=== Gutierrez for Laffey ===
Laffey being another SSI Best Bust before the season began .... Laffey's ERA, K, and BB are fine. His pitch-by-pitch breakdown tells a different story:
- O-Swing % - Only 17% swings and fishes (27% being normal in the big leagues)
- Z-Swing % - 77% (66% being normal in the bigs)
- Contact % - 96% (!!!)
- Swing&Miss% - 1.5% (grrooaaaaan)
- Fastball velocity - 86 mph
Don't let Laffey's first couple of lucky games fool you. He can no more pitch now than he ever could, and in the long-term, you've got Luke French who does exactly the same thing but much better.
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=== Alternatives ===
If the M's want to keep Laffey, that's fine by me -- he's a long man who won't do the M's much harm. If they want to keep Ray, that's not at all fine by me. He is being put into situations in which his pitching determines a 5-7 vs 4-8 record in the morning.
But the M's have three RP's throwing good: League, Wright, and Wilhelmsen. They can powerflush anybody else.
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JOSH LUEKE is a perfectly reasonable send to AAA. You can take it from there. Lueke just isn't throwing his best. That's what AAA is for, on guys like this.
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TOM WILHELMSEN would also be fine to send out, especially if it's to the rotation in Cheney. The man is a born 225-IP rotation horse. Another day on that one, Sir Paul.
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DAVID PAULEY, if he has options left (?), would not be a critical part of a post-Aardsma bullpen, in view of Jamey Wright's scorched-earth policy. Aardsma and League have the 8th and 9th, obviously, and Wright/Wilhelmsen can get the critical outs in support.
It sounds funny, but League, Aardsma, and Jamey Wright could set up a clear 1-2-3 in the mold of Sasaki, Rhodes and Nelson. They're not that good, of course, but the roles could be set just as decisively.
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Zduriencik actually has five (5) good options to shed bullpen deadweight ... two of them negative (banish this guy before he kills again) and three of them positive (let's get this guy going in Cheney).
And none of the five are key to his ballclub's ability to hold on to leads; that is League, Aardsma, and Wright's job.
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=== 7-Man Bullpens ===
Clearly, Gutierrez comes back for either Saunders or Langerhans.
.........
SSI WOULD SHED LANGERHANS, because (1) it doesn't believe in him as a part of your next winning ballclub, and because (2) right now, Saunders is exactly the same thing as Langerhans.
Langerhans had a 2:24 EYE in spring, if I recall correctly, and in the regular season he is on pace for 250 strikeouts (!) over 550 AB's.
But it might be a bit of a tough political sell: Langerhans has three homers, and they're big homers. "Look what Ryan did for them, and look how they treat him."
Langerhans is actually leading the ballclub in WAR, at a whopping 0.3, and if you want to ride Langerhans, it's no big deal to send Saunders down for a little bit.
.........
If it were Strat-O-Matic, I actually might shed Cust and make Saunders the nominal DH. This is because of Saunders' apparent progress, and because of getting a good long look at Cust in Safeco. Russell Branyan, he ain't.
Saunders at DH, the fungible Langerhans as #4/#5 outfielder, and you're positioned to move young players in when appropriate... it would set up future moves verrrrrrrry nicely.
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BABVA,
Dr D