Was more trying to state the case that he's NOT Branyan/Cust/Dunn/Thome/Ortiz in his sheer volume of walks. Maybe if he proves that dangerous in the bigs with the long ball he will be, but I think Smoak is gonna be more of a TTO guy than Poythress.
Which is why I gave Greg Vaughn and Richie Sexson as guys without QUITE as extreme TTO numbers that might be emulated. Even when Richie was cranking 40 bombs a year he wasn't walking like the true TTO guys we've seen recently. And I think Poythress has a few more singles in him to potentially raise his average and drop his TTO potential (at least as I see it).
I'm just saying his patience points are more likely to be in the 70 to 80 range than the 150 of Thome in his prime. Greg Vaughn ran 90-100 or so (more of a TTO player), and that would be plenty for me. Sexson's 80? Fine too.
But he's gonna need to keep up the threat of being a 30/30 man (HRs and doubles) or better to make that happen. Otherwise he's aiming at a Lyle Overbay career: still not bad, but definitely mediocre for the power position he'll be playing.
~G
G-Money sez,
Don't see Poythress as a TTO guy, though I do like him....
I just don't think Poythress walks enough to be compared to the Dunns and Big Hurts of the world.
Poythress is right at 155 games in the minors, which is a cheerful little happenstance, since it is exactly the number of games that 5x5 roto chumps use to calibrate "full season." B-Ref.com gives you totals per 162, but 5x5 book salesmen give you HR's per 155...
In those 155 games in the minors, Poythress sits at:
- 155 games
- 130 strikeouts, 72 walks, 33 homers
- 35 doubles, 0 triples, .532 SLG (and a lot of road HR's too)
- .302 AVG
- .377 OBP
Kind of a matter of taste, I guess, whether you put 130 K, 70 BB and 30-35 homers per year in the TTO category.
I definitely do, but recently the Mariners have been treated to some of history's all-time most extremeTTO guys, such as Branyan and Cust...
HQ's remark that Poythress has a 'mature approach' at the plate --- > bears. Could easily be that Poythress works the count, but makes more contact on 2-2 than does a Russell Branyan.
.......
It's definitely true that a lot of HOF sluggers had spectacular EYE's in the minors. Even Jay Buhner, who wasn't quite HOF caliber, had twice as many BB's as K's in the minors, if I recall.
Poythress isn't being sold as 100% of a Hurt or McGwire here. If Poythress were a 1-for-1 comp to Mark McGwire the way that Ken Griffey Jr. was a comp for Willie Mays, then SSI would have him well above Ackley and Pineda on the prospect list... as opposed to #5-8 somewhere...
There are degrees of competence within each hitter family.
........
That said, I would remind that a whole bunch of ML cleanup hitters ran less-than-McGwire EYE's in the minors. Manny Ramirez his ownself had a lot more K's than BB's in the minors, despite the huge OBP in the majors.
Poythress isn't Thomas in terms of the BB:K ratio, but the issue remains pitch recognition as such -- not the same thing as EYE.
We remember Inside Pitch telling us that we were going to be disappointed with Jeff Clement, because Clement had poor pitch recognition (as opposed to a poor EYE).
I don't know what Poythress' pitch recog is. No clue whatsoever. The fact that his BB:K ratio is ordinary, in and of itself, doesn't worry...
.
Comments
Just going from memory, your Sexson comp is purty blinkin' close, as far as the volume and ratio of TTO's...
If we were to say that of every 10 Poythresses you promoted from A+ to the high minors...
0.5 became franchise players
1.5 became Greg Vaughns / Richie Sexsons
1 or 2 became Overbays or something
6-7 were fringe ML or no value at all
We'd probably be pretty agreed, and if it were accurate you'd have a whale of a prospect there. Get a few dozen of those lotto draws and you've really got something :- )
Just to be clear: I am viewing the following as positive for Poythress and Johermyn Chavez.
I may be wrong, but I believe that the Z regime has a very, very strong (if not virtually iron-clad) preference for LH and SH batters at the corner positions. One of the first things Blengino said was (paraphrasing) "we went over the roster and were just amazed at what a bad fit the team was for the park."
Since then, I believe that almost every player destined for a corner fielding spot has been LH or SH: Figgins, Branyan, Smoak, Kotchman, MB, Carp. Draft picks, too: Seager, James Jones, even Mickey Wiswall.
There are two exceptions that I can think of: Poythress and Johermyn.
So there are two ways to view it:
1. They did their due diligence and decided that these guys bring something extra that overcomes the presumption (namely, some ability to hit in a non-typecast manner); or
2. They were brought in primarily to run up glossy stats in the minors and then get flipped to another team for something else.
It may well be a combination of the two, but when you see a RH corner guy that the Z-crew goes out and gets (as opposed to fall in their lap, such as Liddi), I think it means something more than that he was just the next guy down on the checklist.
Most of our power-clubbers don't walk as much as I'd like. Poythress and Chavez are the two who might get to, IMO. And Raben, if he can survive that microfracture surgery along with his other ailments and keep swinging a bat.
Carlos Peguero and Alex Liddi both have huge-if-inconsistent power but Peguero cannot cut down his Ks and Liddi seems to be topping out in the eye dept. Halman will never, ever walk. Kalian Sams and Mario Martinez are non-prospects. And guys like Guillermo Pimentel are too far away from even seeing a good breaking ball to judge.
We only have a few straws to draw for a TTO guy (now that Smoak should be in the bigs for good).
Poythress has a better eye than Chavez, but we'll see if either can be the Richie Sexson to Smoak's Thome impression at first base.
Luckily for us we play in the AL so we won't have to trade our Sexson like Cleveland did.
Though we could...
Let's just get one first. ;)
~G
I believe we view them both as having plus-plus power potential (aka Buhner/Sexson level 35-40 bombs). Beltre-level power cannot withstand Safeco. Sexson-level power laughs at it.
And we NEED a RH masher or we're gonna get mowed down in the important innings by a bullpen lefty. Thankfully Smoak is a switch-hitter (and natural righty) so he should provide some relief from that problem, but we could still really use that other RH bat in the middle of the order (*cough* Rendon *cough*).
With this pair, though, the first guy that Jack believes is proving he does NOT have that kind of power - and the ability to harness it consistently - gets flipped. He doesn't mess around with prospects that he believes have topped out at less-than-useful. I'm surprised Halman's still here, honestly - the offers must have been low.
~G
Zduriencik has an obvious wide bias towards LH'ers in Safeco and SSI is at least as biased as he is...
But, had Texas not caved on Smoak, our big blaster would have been Jesus Montero, so Capt Jack is not being an absolutist about it...
Like the interpretation that the M's went for Poythress in round 2 only because they thought he had a real shot to be something special enough to defy Safeco gravity ... as Sexson was, for a few years...
Zduriencik has been quoted as saying, the pennant winner will need ONE right hand threat...