And FWIW (also not much) I agree with how the college prospects currently line up on your list. Any idiot would want Rendon if they can get him. I'm hoping there's an idiot or two in the Pirates org who realize their dearth of good pitching prospects in the upper minors is more important than all the pitching talent they've stockpiled in the low minors and bites on Cole or Purke, but it's a slim shot.
Otherwise, at #2 I would expect us to go with Cole over Purke or Gray if the draft were tomorrow. Gray is short, which apparently means worthless, and Purke has a motion that makes some people wince. Cole looks like a #1 starter, throws like a #1 starter...he appears to be the safest choice of all the arms, and potentially the best as well.
I think Purke's stuff may be nastier and he likely has better control of it, but having your #2 pick blow his arm out is the fear of everyone who drafts pitching that high. And it's not like Cole is somehow in another universe from his cohorts.
He and Purke are very good talents. Neither is a David Price / Stephen Strasburg.
Still, I'd love a really good #2-#3 starter who might be ready in a year or two to join the ML rotation.
With our apparent signing of Paxton, that'll be another arm for the mix. The more top arms we can find, the merrier.
~G
A handful of interesting developments:
- Erik Bedard returns to face MLB hitters for the first time since 2009 -- and strikes out the first two batters he faces. Seven-pitch inning. Very good news.
- Also potentially very good news: James Paxton, the one-time supplemental first-rounder who dropped to the 4th round in the 2010 draft has apparently finally signed. Paxton lost a lot of time due to injuries, eligibility, holdouts, etc., but when he last pitched for real -- at Kentucky in 09 -- he whiffed 115 and walked only 20 in just 78.1 IP. He was throwing mid-90s back then, but supposedly had dropped to lower-90s/upper-80s in his pre-draft stint in independent ball (he had been declared ineligible to play at UK in 10). No one really has any idea what he'll show up with, but the ceiling is very high if he can recapture what made him a 1st-rounder. And he's a lefty from Canada, just like Bedard, so it's a particuarly big day for southpaws from the North.
- New bats (less springy aluminum) were supposed to cause endless headaches and reduce power in college baseball. And, Anthony Rendon was supposedly hampered by a second ankle injury. No biggie. Rendon smashed two HR off USC over the weekend and is off to a .393/.514/.643 start (7 BB, 2 K). Mariners are probably going to have to hope that the Pirates are reeeeeeally spooked by Scott Boras (not likely).
Which brings us to the other candidates for the #2 pick:
- Matt Purke was scratched from his start due to a blister.
- Gerrit Cole pitched an inning on Friday and was rained out. He came back on Sunday and went 5 scoreless frames before being knocked around in the 6th: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K -- he's at 17 K/2 BB in 14.1 IP so far.
- George Springer is not adjusting as well as Rendon: he's 3-for-22, 1 HR so far against (mostly) non-top-flight opposition, with 7 K and 4 BB. Teammate Matt Barnes is doing better, with 20 K and just 4 BB in 13.0 IP.
- Finally, Sonny Gray has been in-between. 12 K and 6 BB in 10.0 IP.
Doc asked for my ratings (FWIW, I'm not anybody), but for info-tainment purposes: 1. Rendon; 2. Cole; 3. (for Safeco) Purke; 4. (for Safeco) Springer; 5. Gray. EDIT to ADD: "Wild Card": Bubba Starling (see discussion). That being said, they've been babying Purke quite a bit so far, and that will need to be watched.
Comments
Wouldn't be surprised if Bubba Starling is in the mix when all is said and done. Seems like he can do just about anything. He's already a top 5-10 pick, and his stock could significantly rise if he puts up some results.
Yikes, on second thought - I now see your list was top college players, not candidates for the M's 1st pick
Yeah, we were talking about college guys, but I think Starling is absolutely gonna be a contender for the #2 pick. Cole and Purke are very good pitchers, but not uncontestable #1 selections, and if we want a bat instead then Starling's going to be in the mix.
I like Starling better than Springer from the little I've seen of each, so if Rendon's out then currently Starling is the next hitter down the line for me. He's an Eric-Hosmer type hitter, and Eric went #3 in his draft. And Starling might be able to stick in CF, which gives him a shot at being extraordinary.
Josh Hamilton was the first pick in 99 for a reason. Huge kid, tons of power potential, runs extremely well and can glove in CF? Please. Starling still has some lower-half stuff to work out in his swing which you can see in the videos of him, and being that tall he's gonna strike out a lot.
If he has another year of progression like his last one, I'd take it with no quibbles whatsoever.
~G
I just didn't put him in the top 5 -- yet. I've been following him for awhile, and I'm aware of the upside. I guess it's the combination of him being so raw, the top college players being so polished, and the need to buy him out of his football/baseball scholarship (Boras, again, of course) that makes me think he's unlikely to go to the Ms at #2.
Also, there was a quote from Z (somewhere on Churchill's site) where (without naming names) he said they were focused on an infielder, an outfielder and a handful of pitchers. I assumed that meant Rendon, Springer and ColePurkeGrayBarnes etc. It's possible, though, that he meant Starling instead of Springer.
I have Springer up there based considerably on Doc's warm recommendation, but I don't exclude the possibility of Starling passing him.
That being said, it increasingly looks like #2 might be Cole's to lose. He's certainly doing everything that you want in a stud starter.
Well if you were including HS players, Spec, then I'd go Rendon, Cole, Starling, Purke, Gray as my current top 5. Keep in mind that Purke is quite a bit less experienced than Cole (Purke was a freshman last year and is only draft-eligible because he'll be 21 close enough to the draft to make the jump as a sophomore). I could see Purke potentially passing Cole as the year goes on, but at the moment I have Cole as the #1 pitcher in the draft.
I just hate taking pitchers this high in the draft. Hate it. If there's an all-world hitting talent and an all-world pitching talent available I take the hitter if at all possible just to avoid getting nothing out of the pitcher due to injury. Ask the Pirates how their 1st round pitchers from 1998 to 2002 turned out. 5 arms in the first round, one the #1 pick in the draft, and nothing to show for it. I want a dominant player from this pick. Starling could make this hard on us - and I'd welcome that.
~G
Even though he's a high schooler in a draft stacked with accomplished college players, and even though he's extremely raw at baseball .... I think his makeup and ability make him one of the safest picks. Top 10 QB in the country, top 5-10 MLB pick as a hitter, 1st round MLB pick as a pitcher, Division I basketball starter. It's one thing to be a standout baseball player, it's also impressive to be a two sport star; an elite three-sport star is an entirely different level. Players like this are few and far between, and the success rate is almost a guarantee.
I think I'm actually in agreement with you on the exact order of that top 5, and with Purke and Starling having the highest likelihood of increasing their stock (for the very reasons you mentioned).
Unless there's significant movement in the top end player values, the #2 pick should really come down to Rendon, Cole, Starling, or Purke. There is enough frontline talent this year that you do not need to compromise on ceiling, or take a risk with someone like Gray or Jungmann.
Especially if his options are the Mariners and my local State U. down the road (where my son is a freshman) -- I can't lose!
But I guess I'm wary that his stock seems to be rising based on "YouTube legend" status rather than actual baseball games. His season doesn't even start until March 28.
I watched Cole and Purke dominate at the College World Series, and Gray appears to have just as good of stuff (better breaking stuff), only the "stature issue" keeping him behind. And Doc and others had Springer as #2 in the whole draft at the end of last season. So I don't know what Starling has done to pass them (other than look good on the football field).
I did mention Starling (without naming him) as the "wild card" of the draft in my original article, and I guess I'll keep him as "wild card" until we know more. That doesn't mean he can't parachute to #2 in a heartbeat.
And Sonny Gray has one of my favorite box scores ever, in which he struck out every living baseball player in the nation of Sri Lanka in a five-inning mercy-rule game. 17 batters, 14 strikeouts.
Completely meaningless, but memorable.
Most years I think teams would be more than thrilled to get a SP like Gray with the #2 pick. He's got incredible tools, the numbers are more than you could ever ask for, he's a top student at Vanderbilt, and he's reputed to be a big leader.
However, this just shows what a great position the M's are in. At least one out of Cole/Purke will be available. They don't need to take a chance on Gray's size or Jungmann's mechanics or a high school arm like Bradley or Norris. The two elite arms in the draft come with the least amount of questions. It's really just a matter of whether they want a pitcher or a hitter.
Also, an Orioles scout posts on the O's board and here was his writeup on Starling....
"He hits with dead hands in his load and still has no trouble generating bat speed and driving the ball with wood. His swing plane is inconsistent, but he still has the coordination to regularly get the barrel to the ball against good pitching. His throwing mechanics from the outfield need to be tweaked, as he's currently losing lots of carry on his throws -- he still has no issue having his arm play in right field on throws to 3b and home.
What sets him apart, I think, is the fact that his athleticism isn't just speed/jumping/strength. The physicality is top shelf, for sure, but his body control is incredible. He has that natural fluidity that makes it apparent he can get his body to do incredible things without thinking about it.
Someone with his mechanics shouldn't make as much hard contact as he does, and shouldn't be able to hit the ball as far as he does. There's just a freakish comfort within his skin to relax and let the natural ability just take over. From a few up close observations, he appears to be very coachable, humble and eager to improve at everything. I think he is the type of player that turns into Jason Heyward and shockingly quick, considering how raw the mechanics are."
Thanks for posting it, Justin. The kid really does do things without thinking about it that most prospects can't do even with proper instruction and plenty of practice.
Having the chance for Cole or Purke, or a freakish Heyward-sort, is a terrific position to be in no doubt.
If Rendon slips to us, even better. This is not one of those drafts where a lack of talent hampers us. There will be multiple major league all-stars coming out of the top-10 of this draft. I'm glad we don't have to settle - we'll have our pick of all but one.
Like you said, just choose pitcher or hitter. I'm still hoping for a hitter, but with our pitching needs a top-flight arm would be a great asset too.
~G
That might be enough compensation for the prospect of losing to him at roto, Mikey Jay or no...
Taro if I play, you gotta play... vengeance is mine, thus saith the Doctor...