Guti's great value isn't i the CF balls that he tracks down but in the player(s) that he might bring our way.
 
I still think Boston would kill for him.
Ellsbury (if he's healthy) or some such  OF and a young arm?
Ellsbury goes to left...Saunders goes to CF (where he bat doesn't kill him)
 
I could live with that.
 
 
 

It would be interesting to know how much Jack Z. has shopped guti around.  I sense, however, that he might regard Guti as "his guy," much as he seems to do with Figgy.  If so, I think he will be reluctant to move Guti.
Boston just seems like the place to send him.  It looks like they are penciling Ellsbury into center, with Crawford in left.  Ellsbury is coming off an injury. doc, I seem to remember you writing about Guti's real power being in the alleys, wehre he has smote some prodigious shots.  Don't you think he would see a continual diet of pitches away if he were in Boston, once he turned on a few and sent them over the Monster, which is just a 3/4 wedge away? Pitchers might pitch to his natural power.
Anyway...I think we've seen the best of Guti already (minus 1/2 season hot streaks).  Swap him out while he has value.
Could you get Ellsbury and an arm?  Maybe....damaged goods, you know.
Imagine a lineup with Ackley batting 8th (because Z won't give Figgy the boot and will have to bat him 2nd after his successful snit fit last year) and Ellsbury 9th and then Ichiro to follow.
Even in the AL that would be a potent three player, bottom-of the line-up to the top, run.
Ackley eventually bats 3rd in '12....but not next year.
Saunders will be fine, or better with the glove in CF.  At then we can tolerate his bat if he doesn't explode.
I'm still very interested in OF #4 next year for us.
 

I would definetly recommend against trading low on Guti.
Still had a 3+ WAR season by any other defensive metric either than UZR in a horrible down season offensively. Still only making very little $s per year. Hes still our 2nd best position player.

By mid-June he will be our 4th best player.  Ackley and Smoak, you know.
But heck...Ellsbury might be our 4th best player, too!
Get a project arm with him...you come out ahead.

Only if you insist on UZR though. Any other defensive metric had him at 3 WAR again thanks to +15 D.
Best bet is Gut ends up between '09 and '10 offensively. If he does, he'll have another 4+ WAR season. His career average offensive numbers are plently enough.
I certainly wouldn't want Z to panic and sell low on a cheap impact player. I think Gut's contract makes him close to untradable. It would be almost impossible to get equal value by swapping him for some middling specs.

Der...I forgot about Cust.
That puts Guti to at least #5 bst offensive player in the lineup.  I thought, going in to last season, that guti had a chance to be a year in-year out .260-22 homer guy, in Safeco.  A star, considering his defensive mojo, in other words.
I don't see it anymore.  He was a weak out.  A lot.  I think that MLB pitchers finally found his hole.
Would be interesting to see the different pitches he got in '10 and their location, as compared to '09.
Doc is exactly right.  We're paying 30 cents for him...he's worth 40 cents to us.  But he's worth a buck to somebody else.  Do you hold on and bet on the come...or do you take the money and run?
 
I'm with Stevie Miller.   Take the money and run

 
moe

But I don't remember 2010 playing out the way you guys seem to.  The way I remember it is that Guti came out of the gate in 2010 HOT (March/April Split -- .326/.378/.483/.861).  In fact he was the ONLY player that kept us even NEAR .500 in April.  And then it slowly dawned on him that every other hitter (other than Ichiro) in the lineup wasn't worth a bag of balls and that if he wanted his team to win he would have to have 4 hits 2 of which were HR a night.  Oh yeah and he was thrust into a MOTO position from day one as well, and the pressure crushed him.
IMHO the park was NOT the deciding factor in the collapse of Guti's bat last year, it was the lack of support behind him and the M's trying to force a number 2 hitter to bat fourth!
And yes he toiled for a half a year while the team circled the drain and his teammates got even WORSE, but by the last month it sure looked like he was trying to find the quickest way to end AB's because the year was terrible not because he was worried about Safeco.
His splits bear this out BTW.  He was a better batter at Home than Away, even during his swan dive.
This also syncs up better with Guti's disappointing UZR in regards to Sandy's idea that paying attention and being engaged has just as much to do with defense as speed does.  Guti because disinterested half way through the year because his team and teammates sucked and there was too much pressure on him.  Can't say I blame him, I stopped watching the M's in June as well ;)
Get Guti back into the 2 or 5 hole hitting around other good hitters and on a team actually fighting for something and I would be willing to bet we see an IMPROVED Guti not just a back to career numbers Guti.  Remember in April of last year we were wondering if Guti was becoming a better overall player than A-Gone!

I still think Taro's "I would take Guti over A-Gone" to be the epitome of buying high on Guti, and I'm nowhere near that.  No wonder he's reluctant to trade him. :)  Gutierrez did start off last year with a bang though.  The ideas of why it ended with a whimper say more about the speakers and their beliefs about Franklin than they do about Franklin, honestly.
I don't have a need to move Guti.  If we were gonna do it, I would play Saunders in CF barring a CF in return.  If we're not gonna play Saunders in CF then I'd trade HIM instead as soon as we get a good LF.  I think they have similar offensive upside, and both should play a glove position if possible.
I also think Safeco DOES help CF numbers, but that doesn't mean Franklin wouldn't be a good CF anywhere else.
If we keep Gutierrez, though, I would want him hitting 5 or 6 instead of 3.  If he's the best power bat in the lineup then our lineup is obviously suffering.
In 2012 our lineup should look something like:
Ichiro (final contract year)
Figgins (if he's still here)
Ackley
Smoak
DH
Guti
LF
Olivo
Ryan (I think Nick Franklin will still be in AAA)
We should be able to make a go of it with that offense.  I'd rather trade Guti+ to get Rasmus, and go 2/3/4 with Ackley, Rasmus and Smoak, but let's keep our pipe dreams to a minimum. ;)
~G

I'll buy into the "Guti was miscast and discouraged" theme.  Ask your point guard to be your leading scorer (unless he's that kind of player), and it's going to mess up his game.  Lots to teams get lost thinking a great role player can be a great feature player, but usually it doesn't work out.  Get Guti back into his role, and maybe things turn up.
But then I want to reiterate my "Saunders was rushed" theme.  I was a big Saunders fan early, but having spent time looking at his background, I thought it would take him awhile to reach his peak -- multi-sport athlete, cold climate, late to focus on baseball.
So I was as hyped as anyone when he was killing AA at 21 and AAA at 22.  It looked like he was ready before anyone expected.  But I don't think he was.  I don't think he should be judged on age-22 and age-23 MLB seasons, because he doesn't have the kind of background that indicates he should be in the majors at that age.
I think he has a better offensive upside than Guti, in that I eventually expect him to have at least comparable HR power, but more doubles and walks -- but that may not happen until he's 26 or 27, and it may need to happen somewhere else.
He's kind of a victim of his own success, and of coming up at a time when his franchise is desparate for help.

Saunders actually reminds me a bit of Brad Hawpe at the plate.  Hawpe played college ball so it's not a good minor league stat match, especially since at least two of his parks were major hitters' parks, but looking at the others:
Hawpe, age 22: .267/.363/.506/.870, 59BB/113K (.52 EYE) in 450 ABs, 22 2B/ 22 HR
Hawpe, age 24: .277/.338/.503/.841, 31BB/81K (.38 EYE) in 346 ABs, 27 2B/ 17 HR
Hawpe, MLB career on the road: .273/.369/.470/.839, .56 EYE, 3.7 AB:K.
Saunders, age 18-22: .276/.361/.441/.802.  Averages per 450 ABs: 57BB/125K (.46 EYE), 3.6 AB:K, 23 2B, 6 3B, 13 HR
But I agree, it may take him too long to put it together for him to still be with us.  Hawpe didn't get a full season in the lineup until age 27.  Raul took til 29.  Saunders kinda needs to do it now if he's gonna do it with us.  Fully healthy to start the Spring, in LF from day one, with his expected platoon partner now likely being cut, Saunders should get a GOOD number of at-bats this season.
Putting together a 100-110 OPS+ season right about now would be a good thing, or we're gonna be looking for another LFer soon, I think.  And then sometime in 2013 some other team is gonna get a "surprise" contribution from Mr. Saunders.
In a perfect world, Saunders and Chavez both light it up and we get extra assets.  It's the offseason, so I still get to hope for a perfect world.
~G