=== Justin Smoak ===
My eyes bulged like a Looney Tunes character on this one. We're not talking first-baseman low. We're talking Ryan Howard, Mo Vaughn, Prince Fielder low, and the kid is 23.
Well, okay, not Fielder low: Smoak's at 50, whereas Fielder is at 35 and last season somehow hit an astounding 13. ROTFL! Ah, man... at some point it's almost too embarrassing to allow it to occur... I mean, that 13 SPD is literally cause for me to pass on signing him ....
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Back on topic. The mind's eye, watching Smoak, cross-checking that catastrophic SPD score, confirms that ---- > the young Smoak is going to be a true Clydesdale.
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1. Don't expect miracles with the glove, despite Smoak's hand-eye and his willingness to work at the game of baseball.
Don't panic, either. John Olerud ran like his shoes were tied together, and he was a very good defender. Nice guys make polished defenders. They're not above the hard work.
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2. This is one more thing that reinforces, for me, that Smoak is going to hit 35 or more home runs.
SSI always expected Smoak to hit lots of homers; the plodding footspeed and great EYE is one more thing that confirms.
Waitaminnit. Being a bad runner means you're going to go yard? Hey. Not always. But Justin Smoak is a guy who carries his CG low. He's going to launch those puppies.
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=== Jack Cust ===
Cust is who he is. SPD isn't going to predict anything, so let's cross-check the SPD stat itself by checking out its opinion of Jack Cust. Which we already know the truth on.
Cust's SPD score is right at 50:
So the age-32 Jack Cust's physical speed, his potential for stolen bases, is precisely equal to that of the age-24 Justin Smoak.
Adapting itself to low-calorie leaves, a tree sloth might carry 50-60% of its weight in the contents of its stomach, and digestion takes about a month. With this kind of energy intake, its output is not impressive: when it hits the gas pedal to evade a predator, it tops out at 10 feet per minute :- )
This extreme design is colossally effective: the sloth species racks up 2/3 of the mammalian biomass in some areas. Dr. D likes extremes. Jack Cust is cool by him. One of these days, TTO Clydesdales will rack up 2/3 of the Mariner biomass, albeit in only four lineup slots.
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Jack Cust is what, 20, 30 pounds heavy? You'd think that he'd be in a class with Dunn, Fielder and... well, Dunn and Fielder.
It's interesting to reflect on the fact that Billy Beane put Cust in the outfield. You're not going to do that with Prince Fielder. Cust is a big guy, but not quite so slow as he looks. Dr. D's son, who sulked all the way home from 3-on-3 last week, can relate :- )
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Next up: Figgins, Ryan, Dust-een Ack!-lee, Saunders, various and sundry...
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Cheerio,
Dr D
There's a cool little snippet in the book about Smoak's MAMMOTH power based on hard hit line drives and fly balls. I don't have the book in front of me to give you the numbers, but the article estimates that Smoak is gonna be one of the great dinger hitters real soon. His results based Px was merely above average in 2010, but his hard hit ball data places him well into the elite category.
It's not that he shouldn't have great gap power, it's that hitting a ball hard to the OF + running like molasses can = a few missing doubles on caroms to the fielders.
Edgar's doubles totals are impressive because he "legged out" maybe one double a year. He wasn't sliding into 2nd in a cloud of dust to beat a throw.
Olerud had good doubles marks and low HRs, which evened out his power numbers, but I don't think Smoak is gonna have any years when he clears .350 as a hitter.
He seems like a 30/30 guy at best. 30 doubles, 30 HRs and call it a day. I'd take that. Like Morneau, he's not gonna be stealing any bases or going 1st to 3rd on a single. Morneau is about the same size, and is 4-for-7 in his career for steals over 4000 plate appearances. Edgar was 7-of-9 at age 36 alone - Morneau is practically comatose on the basepaths.
I'll take the handful of potential-doubles that are turned into singles by Smoak's slow-footed nature.
I like the package anyway.
~G
From Tango, or Forecaster? :- )
If in the Forecaster, which part...
... which, with only 60-70 walks per year and the .280 AVG, has him up around 130 for the OPS+...
In 2007 and 2009, Morneau was at 30 doubles and 30 homers exactly, which at his .270 AVG those years, had his SLG right at .500 ...
Morneau has averaged 116 RBI per 162 games with that 30-30 line... and the huge bustout last year into a 180 OPS+.
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Morneau clocks in at 65 per SPD, by the way.
Is about where I figure he'll be. Morneau before the breakout, Fielder in his down years, whatever measure you want to use. .270/.370/.500 is NOT a bad season.
Maybe I'm wrong, and we'll get Fielder in his up years instead, but that's not where I'm setting the bar. Richie Sexson's .260/.345/.510 ish career netted him 120 OPS+, and he was a fine 1B. Smoak has the platoon advantage to boot, and he has it all the time.
That's the range of production I'm looking for, and all those guys drive in runs while being pretty sloooow. I'm looking forward to that whole driving-in-runs thing again, instead of squibbing weak grounders to first.
My kingdom for the sound of solid contact...
~G