Pineda has 3 things potentially keeping him from demolishing the AL:
1) Stamina: can he throw 200 innings a year? He's had an elbow/forearm issue in the minors already, and he's a biiig guy who puts a lot of torque on his arm. Even if it's made of rubber, it's a concern that injuries will take their toll.
2) Motion: Will his motion be dissected by the pros in video and lead to him tipping his pitches to such a degree that he can't get guys out like he could in the minors? And will some of the awkwardness of that motion lead to problems with #1?
3) Lefties: Even Felix was decidedly average results-wise in his first full year as a pro across the board. Lefties have always gotten the better of him, though recently he finally learned how to pitch to them after several years in the bigs. Pineda vs. RHBs should be a cinch. His results vs. lefties will determine his usefulness in every start, instead of just having a monster against lineups stacked with righties.
None of those things says he can't do what we believe he is capable of: dominating in the bigs. I remember the "is Felix tipping his pitches" conversations, as well as the panning of him nationally in his first couple of years because the results weren't there. "You called THIS GUY The King? Really?"
Yes, really. And Pineda has a similarly ridiculous arm. I'm not gonna hold it against him if it takes him a couple of years to dominate lefties. Or if he goes out for a couple weeks with forearm soreness, as Felix has done before.
The idea is to limit expectations. Could he rocket out of the gate like Liriano? Sure. But I don't structure my hopes for the season on betting that he will. If he puts up a middling ERA and stays healthy all year I can live with that.
I don't consider "he'll have more trouble with lefties" to be a slight or a slam, just more of a reminder.
From day one he should annihilate right-handed hitters. The rest of his game is a work in progress, and that should be remembered, that's all.
~G
Q. Where'd this come from?
A. I dunno, we saw it someplace and shrugged. Then we saw it about three more places, and boom, we've got an epidemic. "Michael Pineda has to figure out a pitch to deal with lefties!"
NAY VERILY. Michael Pineda has zero problems with left hand hitters. Not minor leaguers yesterday, and not major leaguers tomorrow.
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Q. What are the stats?
A. That's what threw me. I saw some article (don't remember where) that said, hey, Pineda's K:BB is great vs RHB but it "drops to 3:1" against lefties. Not very good for AAA.
I went, WHHAAAAAaaaaaaaaa? "Drops to 3 ?!"
But skimmed past it at the time, because din't know it would become a fad accusation against Pineda.
Pineda against LHB and RHB as a 21-year-old in AAA:
- vs RHB: 46:6 CTL ... 5 HR in 34 IP
- vs LHB: 30:11 CTL ... 4 HR in 28 IP
That's what a great pitcher's platoon split is. All RH pitchers have a lot easier time whuffing RHB's, gentlemen. It's the nature of the beast.
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The above are the splits from AAA - no problems at all vs LH, on a calibrated basis. In AA? We don't have the splits, but since nobody ever got on base against him at any time, we'll take that as corroboration that lefties didn't punish him there either, eh?
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Q. Don' believe ya. Show me a great RH pitcher who gets hit more by lefties than by righties.
A. How 'bout we stay in town? Felix Hernandez, his rookie year:
- vs RHP: .230/.291/.354
- vs LHP: .281/.340/.479
Should Felix have been in the majors in 2006? He was one of the best starting pitchers in the AL, despite the learning curve.
... and the next year, 2007, for Felix:
- vs RHP: .261/.290/.344
- vs LHP: .300/.368/.496
Felix is just a "small sample" of one pitcher (I don't feel like looking up more of them). ... Go check 20 young star righties and you'll find that 18 of them (maybe 19 of them) have a lot easier time getting Adrian Beltre out, than Kendry Morales.
Point is, Pineda's not showing a larger-than-usual platoon split, even for AAA. He is showing a smaller-than-usual platoon split.
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Now, you can quibble about using CTL vs SLG vs whatever, but stats are a means to an end. Felix actually did have some things to figure out vs LH batters. Pineda's learning curve vs LH's is going to be quite a bit easier.
And Felix isn't a weakling. Justin Verlander was awesome as a rookie, but lefties tagged him for 100 SLG points extry.
It's just easier for a righty to get Franklin Gutierrez out than for him to get a lefty out.
Correct us if we're wrong, but we reckon that this one is just a case of not having thumbed through the almanacs quite enough times. No idea why we ever did get the idea that Pineda's numbers, against the other-side hitter, were suspect. T'ain't so.
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Comments
Doc,
Here's Pineda's splits from AA West Tenn:
vs Righties: 44.0 IP, 45:9 K/BB, 1 HR
vs Lefties: 34.7 IP, 33:9 K/BB, 0 HR
Lonnie
Pineda has one advantage that Felix didn't when it comes to adapting to the league. Felix.
It's one thing to have managers, coaches, and other pitchers 10 years your senior who never had stuff even close to yours telling you what to do. But to share the bench with a guy who is already one of the best pitchers in the game, who is only a couple of years older, who has stuff equal to and even nastier than yours, who recently went through and overcame the same transition while also under huge expectations, and as a bonus speaks the same language as you do? That's an awesome influence.
Especially if Felix is taking on more of a leadership role as he seems to be. Pineda has a couple of bad outings against lefties? Felix just has to slide over to his side of the bench and say, "Yeah, they did that to me too. Here's what I did do to put them back in their place . . ."
Peers can make a huge difference. If you were a young hot shot used to success, who would you be more likely to take advice from seriously? Mike Hargrove? Or Felix Hernandez?
Won't surprise me one bit if Pineda lives up to his talent much faster than Felix did his. In part, because he's got a much more influential example immediately available to him.
Wuffie, you is da man! I hadn't even thought about that angle, and now that you've opened my eyes I can see how having Felix on the roster will help Pineda tremendously!
Lonnie
Just like Pineda, btw. Here's hoping between Olivo and Felix that Pineda can get a soft landing in the pros with some expert help to overcome whatever bumps are in the road.
~G
Thanks Lon. Self-explanatory, though my pile-on would be ... see how many RHP's you can find with 0 homers in 34 IP against LHB.
... of course, there are some things you conclude from AA results and some things you don't.
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Where'd you get the splits compadre?
Felix was like Junior in 1989: he essentially is a thoroughbred wandering onto a farm of nags, and having to figure it all out himself.
Having bright lights around you, so you can absorb some things by watching, that's beeeeg, ya.
Being tight with his catcher, that's a factor especially after setbacks... like a safety net...
Who'd Felix have, Johjima? And no disrespect to Johjima, but Felix shouldn't have had 4.5 ERA's in his first few years. The factor has weight.