Seattle Sports Insider

2010 Mariners #29 in Strikeouts . . . but #2 in Fastballs Thrown (2)

Posted by

1/1/11

... Two SP's did refuse to lose, er, to throw a Mariner-rich mix of fastballs, that is: Jason Vargas (59%) and David Pauley (59%). Their ERA's were 3.78 and 4.07, respectively.

If you don't give up scorched GB's and LD's in Safeco, you're going to be all right. Change speeds and let the park protect you.

Admittedly, RRS and Garrett Olson also mixed their pitches reasonably well. ... RRS' noodle is so worn out these days that it wouldn'ta mattered much what he tried. He tried to trick them as long as he could, but it didn't work out.

=== Chone Figgins -12.6 defensive runs ===

One thing: if your org philosophy is to throw an 88 fastball to a location, and let a 225-lb man smoke the ball on the ground as hard as he can swing...

The gloves around the infield are going to be rather important, we think.

In 2010, the M's had a distracted Chone Figgins at 2B, and I haven't seen a single cyber-article that noted his -12.6 runs allowed. Jose Lopez made up for part of that, at +7.5 runs, but between them they were still a weak duo. Then you had various Rainiers at SS.

In March 2010, Seattle Sports Insider argued long and hard for the switch of Lopez and Figgins. Boy, did we get that one wrong.

Now we understand something we didn't before. For 100, 125 years, good organizations have been verrrrrrry reluctant to ask good players to switch positions.

This one really is solved by the risk/reward paradigm. The catastophe that can result is immense. The gain that can result is more subtle.

ML teams simply don't like to ask guys to move out of their comfort zones. It's not cowardice, and it's not coddling. It's that they need production for their $45MM and they can't risk flushing it on a feebleminded idea like Dr. D's.*

But, you know what, Chone Figgins with that 3B arm would make a pretty good shortstop, don'cha think........

In 2011, the M's put Chone Figgins back at his (supposed) +10, +15 runs position ... they put Brendan Ryan, one of the game's best infielders, at second ... and with any luck, they have Jack Wilson at short.

In any case, they'll be adding at least two excellent infielders.

SSI is not a fan of making 4-strikeout pitchers throw all fastballs. But if you do that in front of two or three Ozzie Smiths, it could get interesting.

Cheerio,

Dr D

Comments

interesting..

Not sure what to make of this. Lack of good secondary offerings? Probably not. I would have to lean towards both inexperienced starters at pitcher and catcher staying in their comfort zones. While I preach (to distraction) a philosophy based on beating guys with what they know is coming, I can't justify losing with what amounts to sub-standard stuff. I have been a proponent in the past of taking mostly hard throwers and developing them, the M's have drafted and acquired to suit their ballpark. Perhaps a veteran catcher will recognize poor pitching patterns and make some tweaks to get those numbers back in line.
Its hard when you have one stuff pitcher in the starting rotation though.

Hopefully the FB infatuation

Hopefully the FB infatuation will follow Adair out of the organization.

's how I see it

I would have to lean towards both inexperienced starters at pitcher and catcher staying in their comfort zones.

You've got Moore or Johnson behind the plate, they stick their glove on the black and Fister hits them right in the pocket with the ball ... then next pitch is on the hands and right in the pocket again ... very easy to play tic-tac-toe all night...
While I preach (to distraction) a philosophy based on beating guys with what they know is coming, I can't justify losing with what amounts to sub-standard stuff.

Certainly would agree that with a Shawn Kelley, Mark Lowe, whoever ... the hitter looks fastball, gets fastball and fouls it back ... now he is done whether the next one crosses him up or not...
Have nothing against running Larry Csonka on every 1st-and-10, if you've got Csonka to hand the ball to :- )

Lee?

Happy New Year Doc! What were Lee's totals with the M's? Interesting stats. Thanks.

Hadn't thought of that...

Has seemed to me that the FB infatuation pre-dated Adair, but maybe not.
Let's see where Olivo is at on it... well, the Rockies (in Col where the ball doesn't break) were #3 in FB% last year, but the Royals #29 the year before that, so, hmmm...

Is that a sandbag? :- )

Did you know the answer before you axed? LOL.
With M's: 61% FB ... 19% Cut ... 13.5% Changeup ... a curve ball every third inning.
With Rangers: 66% FB ... 20% Cut ... 5% Change (!) ... 7% Curve.
xFIP exactly the same with both teams, though his actual ERA was 2.4 here and 4.0 with Texas.
Isn't that fascinating. Maybe you or CA can speak to how much a Cliff Lee calls his own game and why it would, um, change in Texas.

You and the old sandbag?

No one needs to set you up to make you look good!! I figured Lee was lower total of fastballs thus making others even higher. It would be interesting to know Lee's totals of FB in the playoffs. I wonder if Mr. Lee was a bit tired as the season worn on? Velocity?

Ya, the Snells, Fisters and Co....

Dared throw lots more fastballs than did Cliff Blinkin' Lee.
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Lee's velo was a tick better in Texas, but yeah, maybe as a pitcher piles up innings he goes a bit more to the straight ones.

For the normal human..

Like a Vargas or Fister who can't stand there and throw 95+, I think that the ability to vary speed is a key to be consistent when the location is not perfect or just having one of those days.
Speaking of which, did you teach your son the knuckle curve?

More of a knuckle change

Since he was 11 years old and only throwing 55 mph :- )
He put his index knuckle on the ball, gave the ball a half turn on release and threw a pretty fair changeup with it... courtesy of Jason Churchill, some 8-10 years ago...

That is great

More than one way to skin a cat! No doubt fond memories with him!
I will be courious what this season will bring. Been so busy but had some fun reading some good technical stuff on pitching. Every kid is unique...

I think there are a few things

Being overlooked here. The Mariners faced the 4th fewest batters; their SO% was still second to last (though 16% SO rate makes them a lot better than the Indians at 15.5% and pretty close to the Orioles at 16.1%), but their 7.4% BB rate was third best in the majors (despite giving 240+ innings to guys with rates above 10%). They also had the 4th fewest hit batsmen (while having the 6th highest WP number, so there may be an element of knowing the catchers too).
I think this is another facet of Zduriencik playing to his park. I find it funny that there was just a discussion here about how the blogosphere doesn't understand that certain pitchers run different BABiP numbers, but nobody checked the Mariners' Pitching BABiP? They were 3rd this year and 1st the year before in (Lowest) BABiP (the BABiP since Zduriencik took over is about .277). Limiting men on base is the key and they did that (~.315 OBP over the last 2 years good for 3rd lowest in '09, and 6th lowest in '10). As long as the Mariners can take advantage of good defense, slow grass, thick air, and punishing wind, then whatever works.

If you have an add, just add it

No need to sneer. We presume that you will find ideas that others didn't, Malcontent -- that's why you're posting, isn't it?
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We've talked about DER all winter. Safeco wipes out balls in play; we've known that since about July 1999.
The question here is whether Luke French, specifically, has any business pitching like Curt Schilling, whatever park he plays in. Same with Fister, Snell, or the other specific pitchers listed.
It's fine to talk about Safeco's premium on FB's, which probably does exist, but you wouldn't ask Jamie Moyer to throw 70% fastballs because the park helps fastballs a little.
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I think there are a few things being overlooked here. The Mariners faced the 4th fewest batters; their SO% was still second to last (though 16% SO rate makes them a lot better than the Indians at 15.5% and pretty close to the Orioles at 16.1%)

Chiding us for "overlooking" volume of batters faced when we used a rate stat?
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but their 7.4% BB rate was third best in the majors (despite giving 240+ innings to guys with rates above 10%)

You're overlooking the fact that we weren't discussing the *quality* of their pitching results. We're discussing the how well the pitch selection matched the repertoires of the pitchers.
Sure, the M's had the low BB's to go with the low K's. That's what made them finesse pitchers, as opposed to terrible pitchers.
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I think this is another facet of Zduriencik playing to his park. I find it funny that there was just a discussion here about how the blogosphere doesn't understand that certain pitchers run different BABiP numbers, but nobody checked the Mariners' Pitching BABiP?

You're going to have factoids to contribute. No need to be shocked about it. :- )
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Plus BABIP vs. middling UZR...

As to the broader point, the M's pitchers' BABIP, we've been discussing the Mariners' DER all winter.
It *is* interesting that the Mariners had a good DER and an excellent BABIP, although they had a middle-of-the-pack UZR.
It would be an interesting investigation as to the reasons that a team converts lots of batted balls into outs on an absolute basis -- but UZR says the fielders aren't getting to balls very well.
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It goes without saying that the Mariners have been deploying pitchers, and batters, who put the ball in play. If they didn't turn around and shoot themselves in the foot offensively with low BB / low K batters, I'd be more inclined to assume that they're tailoring to their park.
However, since they have saturated their roster low BB / low K guys on both sides of the ball, I suspect risk aversion.
Perhaps Zduriencik (bringing in his own guys) will indeed go with 5k, 2bb pitchers and load up on high K, high BB batters such as Ackley and Smoak. Let's hope. Gutierrez, Chavez, Wilson, Olivo and Kotchman don't make it seem like a given, but we'll see.
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Whether or not the Mariners think that Safeco puts a small premium on FB's, Luke French, Doug Fister and Ian Snell should not be pitching as though they were Curt Schilling.
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UZ at your own peril.

Sorry to re-use one of my old article titles - but this is exactly the kind of disconnect that has me routinely shaking my head at UZR results. (The problem being - I think there is some legitimate 'truth' that UZR is shining light on - but I have believed from day one that the "eyes-on" foundation for ZR ends up getting skewed by location. (The people scoring games in Chicago or Seattle start grading harder or easier based on subtle underlying psychological pulls, and over a full season, skew the final tallies).
I see the same basic argument of -- "Well, sure he only hit .200 -- but that was just because his BABIP was so bad. He was unlucky. He's REALLY a .270 hitter."
In truth 4th in DER, 7th in UZR isn't a big skew - and might be illuminating - but I've seen some much more severe - (2nd in one, 13th in the other) examples to rely on UZR except in cases where there isn't any other choice.
Y'know - in thinking about it, the #1 DER fell to #4 - and it's been my contention that ENGAGEMENT is critical to DER. So, maybe the lower UZR is actually not really measuring talent or result - but is actually capturing engagement to some degree. Just a random ponder.

I wasn't trying to sneer

At the very least I wasn't trying to be, and after reading it again, I realize that I overstepped the bounds of friendly discussion (accidentally). I apologize that it came out that way.
To the discussion; the rate stat used was K/9, which I think is inferior to % of Batters struck out (which, like I said, shows the Mariners much closer to the pack on Ks), and when you were making your point about how inferior the Mariners' approach of amping up the fastball use is, you referred to their grand total of strike outs being much lower than the rest of the pack and barely better than the Indians. I don't understand how your issue with the pitchers' repertoire isn't eventually about results.
Once again though, your larger point: that the increased use of fastballs that seems to be in the organizational zietgeist is eroding the meager ceiling of pitchers like Luke French, Doug Fister, and Ian Snell. I am disagreeing on that point. Honestly, I thought we were mostly of the opinion that French and Snell were beyond fixing by mere pitch selection. Doug Fister though, actually saw his results improve against left handed batting while remaining consistent against right handers despite (and who knows, perhaps because of) an increased fastball usage between '09 and '10.
With pitchers at this level of ability, what's the upside on the strike outs? What if the extra strike outs come hand in hand with more walks, or more meatball change ups and curveballs that drift out over the center of the zone?
And I believe you already mentioned this, but Doug Fister and Luke French are really about it for the guys throwing more fastballs than they (perhaps) should. Noodle arms Vargas, Sweeney, Rowland-Smith, and Pauley all came in below 60% on their fastball usage. I think the Mariners are mostly just looking for what works.

This was maddening with guys

This was maddening with guys like League, Fister, French, and Snell last season.
Fister seemed to be having some early success with the high FB approach, but its hard to see how thats going to work for him long-term.

Enjoy your insights b'wana

Thanks for clarifying. Didn't mean to be too vigorous with the ping-pong, either.
Your ideas are always top-notch, so we do hope you'll keep 'em comin'.
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Your specific counters on the M's org philosophy are substantive. Snell was beyond fixing, though it drove me batty that they insisted on having him try to pound the knees. To me he was exhibit A or B as to the FB stubbornness.
It does seem like you can rule out RRS and maybe Vargas, but the team still ranked #2 in fastball percentage, right? The guys who were not real high in FB% were still considerable, and the total team effect was "tons and tons of fastballs."
It may well be that my complaint doesn't hold up under (your) serious scrutiny .....
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Still, the 30,000-foot view is that here is an org that rabidly believes in throwing tons of FB's ...
#2 in 2010 and #1 in 2009 ...
and yet it is doing so with a staff full of finesse pitchers. Hard for me to get away from the intersection of those two things.

Yeah, but

My point is that they were #6 in ERA (#1 in the AL) in 2009, and #10 (#4 in the AL) in 2010. Their .284 BABiP against is the lowest in the Majors over the last 2 years, and it's not just Safeco, their .293 Road BABiP is 3rd in the majors. I think you're right that the high fastball % is hedging against risk, but I think it is an approach that can be used successfully by finesse pitchers like, say, Greg Maddux. These are guys defined by their lack of stuff, so aren't the chances higher, that if they try to throw a pitch that they have less control over and comes in at batting practice speeds, there is a higher chance that it ends up hanging over the plate?
I noticed something else too, though it doesn't have much to do with my main point of "maybe finesse fastballs aren't so bad", if you sort by starters, then the Mariners' fastball percentage drops to 62.6%, which is good for 4th in the majors, in 2010 it was 61.9% and 6th highest.
Also, Grizzly mentioned that he thought Adair leaving the organization would lead to the fastballs becoming less prevalent. To which you pointed out that Olivo had caught for high fastball teams before. The Indians were #1 on fastball percentage from 2003-2009, when one Carl Willis was pitching coach, and it's not like they were starting a bunch of fire ballers. I don't think the days of high fastball percentage are over.