Forecaster now shipping. As you know, we live to serve. You, not Ron, that is.
Not that HQ is infallible, of course. For Ron's 25th Anniversary Edition, he wrote an op-ed saying, in effect, "Everybody else's guess is now as good as mine." Which is also where James, Dr. D and everybody else in the over-50 league is these days.
But HQ is a neutral source. They're not too close to the situation to see the warts on a pitcher. They're also not so DC-Current-Conditioned by "No Cheering In The Press Box" that they have to avoid saying somebody's good, if he is...
Text in italics is my characterization of Shandler's position on Mariner players, not his actual statements on them. This is done both to steer clear of copyright issues, and to give a bit of color (muave? ochre?) to the reviews ... hey, we used to make a fair livin' with these kinda scan-and-exec-sums. Cheap at half the price.
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=== Felix Hernandez, $31 ===
THE BEARDED PROPHET: Improvement from 2009 seemed impossible. He improved. ... don't like his innings, but unless they catch up with him ...$31.
Felix one of ten (10) hitters and pitchers worth $30+ in 5x5 roto, and the #1-1 pick in a sim-league draft.
Sim projection: 37 RAR, best in the game.
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The Mainframe Sez: Plenty of upside from here, if Felix will transition away from all the pitch-to-contact, knee-high fastballs and transition into fastballs up, fastballs off the plate and offspeed pitches with two strikes.
Felix is the best pitcher in baseball, him or Lee. He can get considerably better.
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HQ bids whatever it takes to get Felix - $30, $35, whatever. Same here. Felix has reached the point to where he is a legit 1-1 pick in an AL-only draft.
Not only is Felix great, but he's also 240, 250 innings. The 21st-century Seaver/Clemens. Hey, and as far as roto W's go, it's not like his offense could get worse...
Whale of a great place for a roto champ, or for Jack Zduriencik, to start his baseball team.
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Trade Talk: Interesting, and courageous, chatter that has been launched by the beat writers on the concept of dealing Felix for five of somebody's best-and-brightest.
As a general rule, Stars & Scrubs wisdom dictates that there really is no way to deal a Felix Hernandez and improve your team.
You can only put 25 guys on the roster. Who's the 5th guy in the package? Somebody who is redundant with Michael Saunders. Who's the 4th guy? Somebody redundant with Josh Leuke and Dan Cortes.
It's intriguing, but the way the math works, Felix' "marginal production" is going to be worth more than five minor leaguers' "marginal production." If everybody on your roster is worth 25 cents and Felix is worth $1.00, there's no way to take back enough 30-cent players to make it work.
Now, if you get five Justin Smoaks and Michael Pinedas, five guys at 75 cents who are also making rookie salaries, that's another subject... does any team have 4-5 of those, besides us? :- )