Title was just too good to pass up when discussing Cappuccino moving to Seattle.  :-)
No, Cappy isn't a star.  I've actually always liked Cappy.  When Milwaukee traded SEXSON to Arizona, I thought Cappy would be the real value they got.  Didn't turn out quite so well, though.
Here's the thing, though.  Cap's HR problems are REAL.  He had fantastic numbers in the minors, (a 0.5 HR rate).  But, in the majors, he's been consistently around 1.3.  But, this has NOT been a park-effect.  He's *MUCH* worse on the road - 62 road HRs 48 home - in 75 fewer innings. 
The comps to Vargas are scary in MANY ways.  If you look at career stats, BOTH guys have a *HUGE* home skew - Vargas OPS home/road is: .681/.832!!! Cap's is: .719/.837!!!
So, before you go adjusting for Safeco, understand that the numbers suggest Cappy was ALREADY getting a major home park edge where he was.  (I'm no expert on Miller Field - just saying what the numbers indicate). 
But, that .837 road OPS (in the NL) should be a concern. 
Cappy's career OPS vs. non-pitchers = .811 -- (Vargas comes in at .770).
My take on Cappy in Safeco would be he'll suffer the "normal" NL to AL 1/3 of a run increase in ERA - making him a 4.30-4.50 pitcher in Seattle.  Yes, *IF* Seattle can reduce his HR rate to under 1.0, he's got the chops to be a decent #2.  But, this is not a guy "likely" to see a big gain from moving from a hostile to a friendly park.  His road career ERA of 4.66 likely goes to over 5.00 in the AL, regardless of how much Safeco helps. 
Vargas?  Who Doc notes is destined for an ugly future - in 2010, he had a 4.85 road ERA.  Running a 2-run differential between home and away is extreme - even when the club runs a 1-run difference as a team. 
Mind you ... this is not to say the team should pass.  I agree with the assessment that the Mariner rotation is severely suspect beyond Felix.  (I could quibble that I think Fister is the dead-man walking while Vargas is a likely passable #4 - but the math doesn't really change.
Fister may be the second coming of Mark Hendrickson or Silva -- and Vargas may just be the next Pineiro to flash and flop and move on from Seattle.  But, the basic reality is that it is HIGHLY likely that 2 (or more) of the 2-5 guys in the Seattle rotation are going to pull an EOF/RRS style swan dive in 2010. 
Unfortunately, for whomever the club opts to get, I think it also likely that any defensive benefit playing in front of the Ms defense will also be smaller in 2011 than in 2010.  With a team EXPECTED to finish last - and with no "good" pitchers (beyond Felix) in the rotation, the ability to stay "up" for games defensively is almost certain to suffer.  I think the club will be lucky to finish 7th in DER this year, unless they find some breakthrough arms VERY early in the season.

I've been up front with my frustration with the M's inability (or unwillingness) to sign a starter.Since they were hamstrung with dollars available we all realized it had to be a low risk ($) med-high reward guy.  Cappy is that type of guy.
But what's really holding up such an acquisition seems to be a less than realistic expectation that an impact bat comes wrapped up nicely in the gift exchange for Aardsma.  Not happening.
So get your good prospect for Aardsma.  Take those now-available dollars and sign a Cappy (or equivalent...if it can be found)
Essentially we have Felix (Probability of 2011 success? 1..or at least as close to 1 as any pitcher can get) and some rolls of the dice.  Pineda?  He should be fine...barring a blown arm.  Let's say 3/4 probability, or in that ball park. 
I think there is almost a probability of 1 that you get a 2010-like season out of Vargas OR Fister.  So, what does that make them individually?  2/3, or so.
That also means that less than 1/10 seasons they both do a belly flop.  That's comforting, I think.
Bedard?  I love him.  But God knows I've had a high risk love affair (or lust affair) or two in my day.  2011 probability (knowing that he'll miss 4 starts even in his "healthiest" '11)? 3/5-ish. Maybe less.  2/5?
Add that up...you have a very high probability that ONE of those last four will go RRS on us.  If we have to hit the silk with French or Pauley that isn't pretty.
Cappy  for Aardsma..and you get a club option for the 4M-5M clams would be just ducky!
And if all the guys mentioned above roll sevens and elevens...?  Well, a healthy Cappy is worth more in June-July than he is right now anyway.  You Washburn him.
But I sense that Z wants to make that original Washburn trade into something to hang a hat on.  I think he "wants" French to be a BoR guy.  I think that's his fallback guy.
And we hang onto an overvalued closer...On a team where we've just debated if they have added enough bat to go +12 wins.  Plus +12 wins gets us to 73!  Whether you have Aardsma or somebody else who may blow two more saves makes no practical difference on a team where we're debating if they can get to 73 wins!
Trun the DA into Cappy.  We'll all breath easier.
moe

I'm a bit higher on Cappy than Sandy, but overall I agree.  We need another starter.  I would have been interested in Webb, but we have our monster-pitcher-who-missed-2-years-due-to-injury in Bedard. 
And why would Webb come here if he can go play for a contender?  Jack did well making Bedard feel comfortable here, and now we'll see if he can still pitch like a frontliner (and for how many innings).  My money's "yes" and "for on 140 or so," which would be stupendously great for us.
But shoulders are tricksome, precious.  Can't rely on it.
And in no universe should Luke French be our #3-4 pitcher.  If he's our #7-8, fine.  But we can't be a Vargas/Fister setback from seeing French in the rotation for an extended period, let alone breaking camp with him as #5.
And the only starter down in the minors other than Pineda who's anywhere near ready for a big-league shot is a 4-innings-of-destruction...and then out of gas.  I love Robles, but without a better lower half, his 11K/4 walk/7 hit maulings aren't sustainable.
So he needs more prep time.  That's okay - the kid turns 22 in March.  The rest of our minor-league starters are at least a year away as well, though, and we don't have a large number of them in the upper minors anyway.
We need help from outside the org.  Pineda is a jewel and a legit #2 candidate...but so was/is Chris Tillman, and he's been trying for 2 years just to stick in the bigs with ugly results.
I think Pineda will do well, but even Felix had several years where his results didn't quite match his talent.  Not everybody is Francisco Liriano off the bat (though Pineda is as good a bet to be as anyone).
I want another pitcher who's been there, done that, and done it well.  Capuano counts.  So does Francis (even with that pesky shoulder issue).  I'm with moe, I'd trade Aardsma for a good couple of prospects and switch him with Capuano, even if it does make us rely more on kids in the pen.  Aardsma is out of here at the trade deadline anyway unless he destroys his trade value during the first half.  It's a huge risk to hold onto him and hope his value increases, knowing that pitchers like him fall off the closer wagon quickly when their control problems catch up with them, and right now the only thing saving Aardsma is his unhittability.
If and when opposing batters start making contact, he's going back to the guy Boston gave away for basically nothing.  Moving him for prospects and a formerly-broken starter is all right with me.
We're shopping in the broken pitcher bin.  Sometimes it works out.  Sometimes it doesn't.  All I want is a Paul-Abbott scrapheaper at this point.  Not asking for miracles or anything, just a guy who puts us in line for more wins than losses and can pitch a professional 160-180 innings.
And then we'll see if we can get lucky with Bedard and Pineda as well.
~G

Cappy should sign for a cut rate to play in Seattle...He'll more than make it up on Starbucks and Seattle's Best endorsements!