Q. Before we get the SSI view of Olivo's defensive value, what's the consensus defensive value? Start with the rocket arm.
A. Here are the SB/CS for the M's in 2010, compared to Olivo's results:
Seventeen runs. So what.
So what? You guys want to put Franklin Gutierrez on the MVP ballot 'cause you think he's worth 17 runs more than another AL center fielder.
HERE is a mathematically DEMONSTRABLE +17 runs -- just through SB's and CS's alone. You still interested in defensive impact, or is it not so hip now?
;- )
Reality Check: all managers, dating back to 1900, have cared about catchers throwing out runners. These managers' intuitive processing of the game has told us that ------- > the running game, measured and latent, has large impact on the W's and L's.
A leadoff walk takes off from 1B? He's safe, the run expectancy is 1.2 from there. He's out, the run expectancy is 0.3.
Lou Brock steals, his team will score that inning .... he's out, his team won't score that inning. A big arm is a game-changer; John McGraw knew that.
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Teams shoot themselves in the man region by even attempting to steal on Olivo.
The more they try to steal, the better off Olivo's teams are. If the 2011 Mariners had some way to force the other guys to attempt 200 stolen bases, we'd win the division easily :- )
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Q. Passed balls?
A. There was a time when Seattle wanted to define catching by passed balls.
That's because Dan Wilson did one (1) thing right as an old man, which happened to be the one (1) thing Miguel Olivo was weak on. Naturally, Wilson loyalists tried to define catching by that one (1) thing.
Niehaus got on the radio and blathered about passed balls day after day, trying to get Wilson reinstituted at catcher, I guess.
That was the kind of disconnect that defined the organization's feline, weak-kneed rejection of Bill Bavasi (who correctly understood that Miguel Olivo was a talented catcher). We gained the pyrrhic victory of Bavasi's firing and a series of 100-loss seasons. Are we happy now?
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Q. CERA's?
A. Olivo's are sterling.
He was, IIRC, over 0.50 runs better than Ianetta last year. In 2009, his gap over his KC backup was better than that. For Olivo's career his CERA is exactly average for his leagues, 4.36 for Olivo compared to 4.34 for his leagues, and he ain't been catching for the New York Yankees.
Intuitively, you expect that a grizzled Latin catcher knows his way around a pitching staff. They play serious hardball in the D.R., y'feel me?
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Q. OK, so what is SSI's grizzled take on the defensive impact of a Miguel Olivo?
A. Well, Olivo's teams have not been whistling Dixie all the way to the playoffs on his back. There aren't many individuals who can impact a game with their gloves. (Get Belanger, Blair and Robinson on the same field and it's a different conversation.)
But ever since Johnny Bench, Dr. D has enjoyed sending his squad out, when he has the catcher to go with 'em.
Also, you've got a 31-year-old catcher who knows the game, as opposed to running guys out there who are still trying to convince themselves that they're major leaguers. That matters.
Olivo is worth as much defensively, relative to Moore and Johnson, as Frankin Gutierrez is worth relative to an average CF. I'll tell ya that much with conviction.
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I would have expected you to be a little more inclusive on that since you're usually skeptical of defense-first evaluations...
Olivo's CARERE CS%: 35.5% (not 43%). That's still better than average...probably worth 4-7 runs (not 12 runs) but still nice to have. He's also a pretty good game caller, but I wouldn't lead my arguments with CERA.
If I were Zack Grienkes personal catcher, I would have an impressive CERA as well. Same thing with Jiminez. Rob Johnson also ran an impressive CERA when he was Felix's personal catcher. Adam Moore saw a drop in his CERA when he became Felix's catcher later in the year.
With Olivo's arm, he will most likely shut down the oppositions running game. Teams won't run on him, not sure how many runs that will save and how many runs he will give back through passed balls and wild pitches.
I don't hate this move, but I disagree with you on those points.
Also, you've got a 31-year-old catcher who knows the game, as opposed to running guys out there who are still trying to convince themselves that they're major leaguers. That matters.
After years of taking the M's to the woodshed for not giving the kids a chance to play in favor of Civics, I find this to be an abrupt shift in policy for the team.
We're not leading with CERA, Coug ... just noting that when you get down to that Q on the list, at #6 or #8 or wherever CERA ranks for you...
... then CERA is most certainly not a negative for Olivo, and is probably a positive to throw on the pile.
Yes I am impressed with Olivo's career CERA, which is dead-on league average despite the fact that he has played with second-division clubs. There is his career CERA, his 2010 CERA and the intuitive assessment of where he's at, at this point in his career.
I don't say his CERA is the gospel truth, but where it weighs in, it weighs in his favor.
I suspect that the terrible experience with Olivo last time around, is red-shifting our reaction to Olivo's resume to a place well off-center. Our scorn of his CERA may be an example of that; if this were Victor Martinez we'd probably receive the (bit of) evidence well.
If CERA told me that Pudge Rodriguez was a great defensive catcher or a lousy defensive catcher, I wouldn't believe it based on CERA. This stat is just as likely to mislead us as it is to reveal the truth. It would be like taking out my lucky coin and saying, heads he's good and tails he's bad. It's worth mentioning that both Zack Grienke and Ubaldo Jiminez wanted Olivo to catch him but the Washburn/Johjima fiasco showed us that isn't all it isn't critical for success.
I have not come out against this move, though I was in a bit of denial about the move when I first heard about it. Zaun seemed like a better option.
Safco hurts his bat, but he will be good enough to justify the contract. So I can assure you that this is not a knee jerk reaction against Olivo.