Q. So Crain is a pass, or why are the Mariners after him?
A. Crain might have gotten better in 2010. A lot better.
This is going to send my man CA screaming into the night :- ) but Jesse doubled his slider percentage last year.
Now scan down Fangraphs to his O-swing and Z-swing. Batters in 2010 fished for pitches outside the strike zone -- and froze on pitches in the strike zone.
Crain, in 2010, went to a K-Rod type game, slider first, then throw the ball by them after they're locked up. If the Mariners want Crain, then we presume it's because they see him ready to jell.
That's very possible, gentlemen. Pitchers leap plateaus. Crain's might have come when he decided to pitch off the slider.
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Q. Is Jesse Crain better than David Aardsma?
A. I'll take Crain all day long in that matchup. ... I might be the only one, though...
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Q. Would Crain cost a lot?
A. Well, he made $2M last year. We presume (also) that if the M's are hoping for a bargain -- bringing him to camp not as The Closer, but as a guy in the mix.
If the M's got Crain for $2, $3M a year, and unloaded the cabbage elsewhere, that could be intriguing. Crain would probably be a better closer option than anybody they presently have.
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Aardsma made $2.75M last year, and saved 40-ish games, so is in line for a big raise. The idea must be to offload Aardsma in favor of Crain. Fine by me.
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Q. Do the M's have plenty of relief now?
A. On paper, if you're playing roto, sure.
But this is one of the areas where real baseball is most clearly different from rotisserie. Real GM's don't want to go to battle with a bullpen full of untested arms. It's too easy to wind up with a real embarrassment.
Just 2006, for example, the M's came into mid-late April playing .500, and then Guardado blew three or four right in a row, and that was just it. Boom. Season over. They quit, right then and there.
The M's could go to camp with Aardsma, League and talented rookies .... but I'm not at all comfortable with it. If they're thinking re-tool, Crain's reasonable in my book.
And that's coming from a guy who's kind of averse to Crain to begin with :- )
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Q. Could presage a trade?
A. Zduriencik's attempted heist of San Francisco, last summer, presaged the trade.
It says here that Capt Jack is sharp enough to continue his efforts to sell high on Aardsma. If he can cash Aardsma in this winter, that's another bouquet of flowers from me.
Back in the 1990's, Padna and I used to recommend the "Closer Factory" -- put a good setup guy into the 9th once every year or two, get you 40 saves, and then trade him again. Kind of like Billy Beane does Opening Day starters...
In principle, I'm madly in love with the idea of trading 40-save closers, and pushing a good setup man into the role. In concept the plan is great by us.
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We seem to remember Zduriencik converting a closer into trade goods before. Check us on that.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Crain is not my idea of a closer...but he's more my idea of a closer than Aardsma is...and I have no problems with trading Aardsma for a Putz-like haul (it probably won't be AS much...but it'll still be shiny) and figuring out the closer later.
In a vaccuum, $2-3mil to Crain might make some sense, but given the context of passi?ng on a potential long-term SS option, I'd probably just be annoyed. $2-3mil is probably about 60-70% of what Nishioka would cost per year including his posting fee.
If Z's next move isn't a long-term one, I'll be annoyed even if it makes sense on raw value.
I look at relief pitchers quite differently from starters as to pitch selection. Short appearances, exposure, high leverage. They need to miss as many bats as possible quickly. Add to that is that they are generally failed starters and those with the good velocity most likely suffered command issues, so there is less to be gained by going for the long set up of a hitter.
I've watched Crain some, he hasn't impressed me with results, but has pretty good stuff. From your data, he seems to be going down the Jeff Nelson, or Brad Lidge road, having lights out breaking pitch one night, and praying for a pop out the next. Me? I'd take him as a set up guy, pay him what 3mil? Could then move Aardsma, and slide League into a shaky closer role. Might be fine as I have been getting impatient with the lack of news concerning the ill-conceived train wreck of an offense which should be first and last on things to do this winter.
That your view of the situation might be a bit more complex than my 3rd-grade watercolor painting :- ) but figured you'd be gentle with the site....
You see Aardsma as having a buyer out there anywhere?