1
...I will lose all respect for Zduriencik. And it won't be coming back.
Fortunately...I don't see that happening.
Ackley AND Smoak for Upton?
In about one year, will look like two Tim Lincecums for Jay Buhner.
Warning: Dr. D is starting to get wound up about this one... general rules of decorum are about to go out the window, kiddies, as it did with the Morrow-over-Shorty-Lincecum rubbish ...
Sez our ace reporter Spec:
Here: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2013474766_justin_upt...
[Baker's article says, as summarized by Spec]
1. Upton will require two of Ack-Smoak-Pineda (plus Saunders, apparently).
2. Baker thinks it's worth it anyway.
3. Z will value a proven commodity over prospects.
4. Ackley is unproven at 2b and of questionable value if not at 2b.
5. Smoak is pretty easy to replace.
6. Towers and Z know how to do a deal.
He's almost got me convinced (not as to Ackley, though). Two of them for a budding young star, OK. Two of them for this particular one (Upton), I'm not sold.
.
=== People are going to get into real trouble ===
Thinking of Dustin Ackley as a member of the "prospects" species.
You can't lump a man like this with minor-league "prospects" like Chavez, Mangini, or whoever. But that's what people do. They just go, "Hey, Dustin Ackley is in the minor leagues. You need three minor leaguers to get a marquee player."
..............
Our man Baker just finished a superbly even-handed, thoughtful series on the Cy Young. On this one, he writes, remarkably,
The catch? He'll probably cost you at least -- and I'm saying at least -- two of the Big Three prospects in Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Michael Pineda.
So Upton might well cost you, and be worth, all three of those guys, eh? How about the fillings out of my blinkin' teeth? How about a 3-way deal where we pay for Montero and Drabek and send them along, too?
.
=== Just Check This One In 2013 ===
Again, the fatal flaw in this logic is to lump Ackley and Smoak as "prospects." They are not. False premise = invalid conclusion.
This position is arguing that Ackley is roughly comparable to, say, Jeff Clement, Phillippe Aumont, or Brandon Morrow, simply because he was drafted in a similar spot. Which is like saying that Strasburg and Lincecum were comparable in value to other top-pitchers-in-the-draft.
The very moment that Ackley and Smoak begin hitting well, at all, in the bigs, they are each worth more than Justin Upton.
....................
Fortunately, Geoff's reasoning on Zduriencik is stated. Baker reasons simply that Z is smart enough to know that proven players are worth more than prospects.
Guarantee you that Z would not back this logic. If you were talking about prospects -- Pineda is a prospect -- then sure, go nuts, if you know you are getting back supreme quality like Adrian Gonzalez or Cliff Lee. (Justin Upton is not guaranteed supreme quality; you could easily be disappointed with him, especially in Safeco.)
...................
Technically, Dustin Ackley is in the minor leagues. Technically, Tim Lincecum was in the minor leagues once too. It didn't mean that either had any serious chance of failing.
.
=== Whatchoo Smoaking Dept. ===
And lemme bust youse guys' chops on Justin Smoak, too. You know who y'are ... ;- )
You've committed the cardinal Post-Hype sin of letting one month's visual ----> warp your judgment on this kid. Ohhhhh, dearie me, he had a bad first trip, so the glam's off.
Grrrrrrrrrrrrr! Most ML superstars had a rough ride the first time around the league. Many of them were up-and-down three different times. Bonds and ARod flailed their first times.
...............
Smoak is lefty. He's OBP. He's character. He's a Musial swing. He's terrific power and he refuses to swing at a ball. His swing shape has Safeco porch all over it. He's $425,000.
This kid is going to have OBP's near .400 and SLG's way over .500 -- and you let one month's adjustments dim your flame for him.
You want to see the ML production before you project it. Shame on you. :- )
Justin Smoak is the first true Safeco cleanup hitter that has come along. I'm not giving him to you for Justin Upton even steven. No way no how. Upton for Smoak, 1-for-1, Jack? NOOOO! WAY!!! Grrrr.
Jay Buhner was cool, but I'm not giving you Cal Ripken and Eddie Murray for him.
.
=== Consider the Source ===
Who argues prospects-for-stars more than me? This is Mr. Stars & Scrubs. A franchise ML player is worth two or three blue-chippers, and plenty more.
But if you're going to analyze baseball, you've got to know a Dustin Ackley and a Justin Smoak when you see one.
.
Your friend,
Dr D
Comments
2
Am confidently presuming that Zdurencik wouldn't even consider giving up Ackley alone, and the same applies 80% to Smoak...
Will be stunned if he gives up either one, and if he does, IMHO it will be a desperate gamble to salvage a 1-year hot seat...
Most GM's have the integrity (don't get me wrong) not to do that to their orgs, even if ON the hot seat...
3
Don't make me lose sleep! Hey, speaking of draft picks, give away the number one lest they be a Sam Bowie or a Ryan Leaf. Give hopeful fans a taste of Ackley in fall ball and then pull him away? All for a right hander in Safeco? I would want to know what Z was growing in his closet.
4
Thankfully, it is blinkin' rare that you see a guy quite as premium as Ackley traded, right when he's ML-ready....
Not sure how many Justin Smoaks have changed hands the last ten years...
5
Doc...I think you're right, now that I think about it.
I did say in the previous thread that Smoak may well equal Upton's production, however I also said that Smoak and an arm (say, League) might be a good exchange for Upton.
In retrospect...Giving up a $600K (and change) bat for one much more expensive (especially a couple of years out) that doesn't necessarily have a more significant upside seems silly.
I stand corrected.
Upton is a precocious, "budding" star. But he is no lock to put up multiple All-Star Season type numbers. Certainly no more of a lock than Smoak or Ackley, I think. Perhaps less than both.
And, as I said before, I think Reynolds has every chance to be NEARLY the offensive player the Upton is next season or the season after or the season after. Strung together, Upton will have clearly better numbers but in one of those seasons Reynolds may well exceed him and nearly match him in another.
I think I would do the bait and switch deal were I Jack Z. Feign interest in Upton, regardless of the cost, then fall back to a deal for Reynolds. Schmooooze 'em out of something with value.
Even 80% of Upton (Reynolds, over the course of the next three or 4 seasons) for 25% of the cost (or less, when you include all the resources given up to make an Upton deal happen) makes a lot of sense.
moe
6
The sad state of this offense says we still need two bats so that Ackley and Smoak don't have to to it all themselves.
LF and DH are where those bats need to come from.
If Saunders is gonna be able to post a 110 OPS+ then that counts as decent. Not great, but survivable. We can't be getting another 85-90 out of the position.
Same with DH. The kids have to have room to struggle without feeling like every loss is their fault because they ARE the offense.
Jack knows this. He needs some players who can be productive from the first April game. But we can't be trading Smoak or Ackley and taking one of our "add 25 OPS+ points" patches on last year's roster and ditching them for a similar patch.
We need both Ackley and Smoak. If Upton alone costs us Smoak and Pineda, it's not worth it. I'm willing to swap pitching help for hitting at this point.
I'm not willing to just move the hole from the 2nd "easiest" hole to fill to the 3rd. That's not trading a bat at an offense position for a bat at a glove position. We might as well have just moved Smoak to the OF and shot Pineda in the leg in the process.
Doesn't make sense. Which is why I don't expect Jack to do it.
~G
7
That might be a different conversation. Maybe.
But Justin Upton has a legit downside scenario in Safeco. You can't talk about him as if he were the best player in baseball. He's just a big bat with plusses and minuses.
................
Again, a year or two on .... you would be staring down the barrel of TWO $1M Lincecums for one $14M Jay Buhner.
::20 cpoints:: Moe
8
The sad state of this offense says we still need two bats so that Ackley and Smoak don't have to to it all themselves.
Very true: the M's do need 2 bats along with their kiddie version of Ripken-Murray. You don't want to subtract one of the bats to get one incoming.
9
But you never know. Honestly, I have seen Upton play several times and have been impressed with him. But I also remember the signing of Beltre. It would be interesting to compare blogs of hope on both. I am not saying Upton is Beltre II in Safeco, but that is a lot give up when you have multiple positions to fill. Put James Jones through the Time Tunnel!
10
Ah, see this is why I drop by. : )
The game turns on Cliff Lee, Adrain Gonzalez, Mariano Rivera, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay. These are the men who go out and play against the best players on the planet and. just. destroy. them. They are the .001% of .001%.
Jemanji is the one net guy I know who looks past the stats, past the scouting reports even, looks at the whole package and says... THAT one. Like he did with Lincecum.
If you want a fun little video adventure, watch some arm wrestling here. First you see 6'11", 350lb Nathan 'Megaman' Jones just making fools of some of the strongest men on earth. I mean he just owns them, it's not really even close.
Then he faces Magnus Samuelson, who is a significantly smaller dude. Watch the vid to see what happens.... LOL
The guys who can take the best in the world, and make them look foolish, those are the guys who we need. Felix is one. Ichiro is another. Ackley, Smoak, Pineda, *could* be.... and I'll defer to much better judges of baseball talent than I - Jemanji and G Money especially - on what their real capabilities are.
The beautiful thing about what Z has done so far is he's acquired all he has by giving up, basically, nothing. It would shock me if he started trading high-ceiling quality for quality of the same or similar ceiling. Just doesn't seem to follow his MO. Realize also that ARod alone didn't make Texas a contender. Trading too many *really good* prospects for one player in, arguably, a slightly better category, isn't the way to win.
Fun reading...
11
What superstud did the Giants give up all their youth for? Oh, they won the WS with that youth...even Zito on the bench.
Jeff, your views are respected. Not just a golf clap here!
12
· OF Johermyn Chávez
· RHP Maikel Cleto
· LHP César Jiménez
· INF Alex Liddi
· RHP Josh Lueke
· RHP Yoervis Medina
· OF Carlos Peguero
· RHP Michael Pineda
· LHP Mauricio Robles
· RHP Tom Wilhelmsen
As far as acquiring Upton everything so far has been posturing. The same thing happened with Lee. One unnamed exec will tell Fox Sports that Arizona is asking for way too much, then ESPN will say Arizona already has a good enough package but just wants to see if they can get a little more.
Lee brought a great bundle because clubs could actually envision that there team could and probably would be the favorites to make it to the WS. Upton isn't creating that buzz, at least to me, so the frenzy won't be as great.
I am wary of Arizona trading Upton. Clubs can wait there entire existence and not have a talent like him. They have him signed to a good contract and they're just going to trade him? M's would never of considered doing that with Griffey or Arod when they were 23. I think it's suspicious and I'd be very wary of not only injuries but the whole package.
13
Smoak is a little overrated. I absolutely trade him for Upton.
Ackley+Smoak is crazy though.
14
Big body strike out machine = Greater chance to [disappoint]. [Language please - mods.]
Well, an Upton trade would be a game-changer. -Baker
That's the quote that I add straight to the [forget it] dept. If you want to change the game then add around $ 30 mil. and re-sign Beltre and grab Victor martinez then you can talk about changing the game. Upton alone does nothing and shreds the farm on those terms. Sheesh.
15
I might trade Smoak + a couple of arms for Upton, as long as Pineda was not involved. Upton is younger than Smoak, has better results thus far at a similar power position, and if I thought Smoak was capped at being an average 1B then yeah, I might bite.
Butthe park adjustment from one of the top 3 or 4 most favorable hitting environments in the bigs to a RH-unfriendly park in the Safe takes down Upton's value some as an upgrade over Smoak. I don't want to trade for Smoak's same level of potential production, except it costs more and I lost extra players. I want to add that level of production to what Smoak will also bring.
Maybe for the "guarantee" of that production you pay a bit of a premium for a guy who has already done it and is still locked up for the same time frame, especially if I have another decent 1B that's gettable...but there's no way I use both Smoak AND Pineda to get Upton.
~G
16
I was surprised to see Jimenez and Medina on this list, a little bit. Maybe we're saving them so we can trade them later if necessary. I would have thought Jimenez was safe after his labrum injury - not a lot of teams are gonna carry him the whole season on their major-league roster as he's still working his way back.
Medina pitched well and I really like him, but he's in his first year of state-side ball and started in short-season. The odds of him going to a major league club for the whole season weren't great.
Bit of maneuvering to raise their perceived value on the market, see if he can include them as the third piece of something?
Still, we had the space, so why not use it at the moment? Nothing wrong with that.
~G
17
Ya, I'd give up either Smoak or Pineda. Not both.
I'd do it for Stephen Drew in addition though.
18
I love this chatter. You would have to be SMOAKING something to make this trade. You need to build a base of players that want to win. See Howard,Rollins, Utley, Werth...Jeter, Posada,Rivera...
I think Ackley,Smoak, Pineda are those kind of players. I am not a fan of any Upton in MLB. If Upton was a game changer, why would you want to trade him.
Go get and keep players that are of high character that want to win, Upton is not that player.
John
19
Why do we need Upton? I say trust the kids, but trade for Drew or another young stud SS.
Drew has to cost less than Upton.
Maybe Towers would take a 3 or 4 of the younger kids from the list of: Chavez, Lueke, Truinfel, Liddi, Raben, E. Ramirez, Moran, Fields, Noriega, Seager, Blanford, or even Paxon.
20
If Drew wouldn't cost any of Ackley, Pineda, or Smoak I could go for that. I have a feeling Drew would cost one elite guy though..
21
To me, Upton is the poster child for OVER-fixation with age-arc projection systems. Because he got to the majors early, (43 games at age 19), and because he had a stellar year at 21, (.899 OPS), he's being viewed like Ken Griffey at 19.
Granted - he's got some interesting age comps - Miguel Cabrera, Andruw, Juan Gone. But, he's also got some not quite as shiney, (Ruben Sierra is his current #1 comp through age 22), and his NON-age comps are dreadful - (Dick Kokos, David Murphy, Don Lenhardt, Jim Greengrass).
Contemporary comps? Adam Jones and Jeff Francoeur stand out.
Me? I think Upton is a "nice" corner OF bat, playing in a significant hitters park, (where his OPS is 160 points higher than his road OPS, and he's hit 60% of his HRs). In point of fact, his road OPS is .742.
In his 3 seasons, he hasn't made ANY progress in his K-rate, (still well over once per game - 477 Ks in 422 games - with 2010 being a new personal worst in total Ks (152 in 133).
After hitting 26 HRs in 2009, he dropped back to 17 in 2010.
He's also had health issues - (108, 138, 133 games the last three seasons). He's only 22, and has yet to manage 140 games in a season.
His career line: .272/.352/.471 (.824) is nice - and nearly identical to his 2010 line (.273/.356/.442 (.799)).
Why the drool? Simple. Because he came up REAL early.
But Cabrerra IMPROVED his first 4 seasons.
Andruw Jones IMPROVED his first 4 seasons.
The truth is - Upton THUS FAR - has a profile more like Francoeur than the uber-stars he's getting comped to. Jeff his 29 HRs his second season, (and 19 the next, and hasn't broken 20 since).
Not saying Upton is Francouer. He's not. But Upton, after 1700 MLB PAs is a .272 hitter with 23-HR power, (if he could play a whole season). He walks a little, and showed some improvement there in 2010 - but Upton wasn't even a .300 hitter in the minors, (and the bulk of his minors PAs were in A ball).
He "might" develop into a 30-HR hitter. But, for me - the FIRST thing you look at from a potential acquisition is what is his ROAD slash line. That removes bias from a friendly home park. And THEN, you start looking at reducing that road slash line by the Safeco effect if he bats right.
The combined career line for the retired Upton comps ends up with a 117 OPS+. That's a good score. It ain't a 140. Only one guy on the list, (Boog Powell) ended up over 130 (131).
Yeah, if you're trading for Miguel Cabrerra, with multiple 30-HR, .900+ OPS seasons under your belt, you expect multiple near-ready prospects. Would everyone be equally hyped about trading Ackley/Smoak + Pineda for Adam Jones TODAY?!? It's basically the same trade, (except Jones plays better defense, while playing in the harder league).
Personally, I'd have trouble coming up with a worse potential import to Safeco than Justin Upton.
22
Nice summation on why the D Backs are looking to trade him.
23
Number of players from 1970-2010, younger than 22, posting a .899 OPS or higher in first 2 seasons: 5.
First 3 seasons? 10.
Adam Jones is not one of those players. Ryan Braun was too old to be part of the first group. Ken Griffey Junior is part of the 2nd group.
When 10 guys do it in 40 years, it makes it a tough thing to accomplish. Part of it is age. Being 21 and already being a tremendous hitter in your first season or two in the league is a mighty accomplishment.
The question is whether an early juggernaut season is indicative of an oncoming slew of such seasons, or whether it can just be a blip on the radar.
I believe Smoak will be able to put up Upton's line while playing in this park, so I would not trade Smoak for Upton. I have my doubts that Upton can do that in a park as unfriendly to him as this one. However, we DO need some right-handed MOTO action to avoid being completely neutered at will by lefties - especially considering how badly both Smoak and Ackley have hit lefties so far.
We could use a Real Hitter (tm) from the right-hand side. I agree, the likely asking price for Upton is way too high. But if it was "just" Pineda, Saunders and some bullpen arms, basically, would you do it?
Would you consider it? His splits other than walks were basically identical home and road in 2009.
Home: .305/.390/.544/.934, 37BB/66K in 259 ABs
Away: .296/.341/.521/.862, 71K/18BB in 267 ABs
Same average, same power, same Ks whether on the road or in the comfy confines. And his home walk rate is very good.
Is THAT the real Justin Upton, or was this past year the real one? The answer to that question should determine the price you're willing to pay. I think it will be too high, and would pass. The fact that he's even on the market gives me pause. But yes, I'd consider it.
~G
24
Its the talent IMO. Guys this talented almost always pan out. Upton is in the Griffey/Hamilton class talent-wise.
He could also dissapoint, but I think you'd be buying him at an all-time low after a season struggling with shoulder pain.
25
All reports indicate that we are NOT in fact buying at all time lows...the D'Backs are demanding the moon for Upton...it's not worth it. Period. If they come down...then maybe.
26
27
...but the man's under contract for 5 years. This is not a deadline rental. I'd want the moon, too, if someone was willing to pay it.
I want right-handed power for the lineup, but we can get it without Upton. There are DH options and trade options that can provide it. We can add Josh Willingham for all I care at a much cheaper price, and get back at least a draft pick if not two for him next season.
But if Upton's price comes down, I'm interested. If not, then go with the lesser-cost, lesser-talent adds and keep Pineda to see if he can be a two-headed monster in the rotation with Felix for the next 4 years.
~G
28
I tell them, "Thanks but no thanks" and call the Cardinals about Pineda + Guti + whatever in return for Rasmus. If and when they decline, I put Pineda in my own 2011-2015 plans.
Somebody else may be saying, "but we're offering UPTON." And I'd reply that we're offering PINEDA and if you want Ackley too, that's just too bad. Ackley has more positional value at 2B than Upton in LF, and that's not even looking at salary.
Pass.
Geoff Baker talks about M's fans "not having the stomach" for an Upton trade, derides them for not being able to comprehend his comparison of Lopez to Ackley, and then says this:
"Ackley as a .300-hitting, all-star caliber glove, would be a tremendous asset. As a .300-hitter with an average glove? He'd still be good. But not necessarily No. 2 overall good. And winning the AFL MVP does not make him a .300 MLB hitter just yet. He's got a ways to go.
That said, you can bet the D-Backs would want him in any deal with the M's. If I'm Seattle, I'd probably deal Pineda instead of Smoak as the second piece as well.."
I agree, being merely an average glove would not be the greatest outcome. But what would it make him?
Brian Roberts, who hit a bunch of doubles and few HRs for most of his career, and only cleared .300 once in his prime, had a 5 year stretch like this in that prime:
WAR by year:
5.0 (5.6 offensive, -0.6 defensive)
2.2 (1.8 offensive, 0.4 defensive)
4.6 (4.2 offensive, 0.4 defensive)
4.0 (5.0 offensive, -1.0 defensive)
2.1 (3.5 offensive, -1.4 defensive)
His line, eyeballing it, was something like .290/.370/.440, ie, exactly what we expect Ackley to do.
Upton? Limited numbers, but...
2009: 5.2 WAR (2.8 offensive, 2.4 defensive)
2010: 3.8 WAR (1.8 offensive, 2.0 defensive)
Brian Roberts, posting that line, had one season worse offensively than the remarkable 2009 offensive production that Upton posted. As a moderate to poor defender, he was worth as much as Upton.
Of the two, Smoak or Ackley, you absolutely keep Ackley. Unless you think Seager can do the same thing, I guess, but there's no way I give up an offensive boon at 2B like Ackley unless the corner power I'm getting in return is A-Gone class, not Upton-class.
Could Upton become A-Gone class? Sure. But Ackley can become Utley class too, bumping his WAR to 6+ and becoming a destroyer of worlds. And I think Ackley is more likely to achieve his high-percentile projections. No offense, Baker, but no dice. I don't trade (Brian Roberts/Chase Utley) for (Ruben Sierra/Juan Gonzalez).
~G
29
Not sounding good.. I'd even rather trade Pineda+Smoak than Ackley.
30
Upton is probably already as good as A-Gone. Upton is a guy if he OPS in the mid-900s could get in the Pujols/Hamilton range.
31
Upton OPS+, last 3 years: 106, 129, 111 in a hitter's park.
A-Gone OPS+, last 3 years: 139, 162, 152 in a pitcher's park.
I understand defensively Upton gets some back, but...no. He's not in Adrian's league yet. He might get there, but he's not there now.
~G
32
I think he is. Upton's 09 would be A-Gones 2nd best season, and he didn't even play the full year. At the same age, A-Gone was putting up a 821 OPS in AAA.
A-Gone's 09 was a career year, and his '10 inflated by luck. He had a high IBB and BABIP. I think hes a true talent 4 WAR player, but his potential is not in the Upton-class. Upton has the talent to be one the best players in baseball.
I really think Adrian Gonzalez is becoming overrated. Hes a very good player, but hes not a star (either than '09).
33
I think he is. Upton's 09 would be A-Gones 2nd best season, and he didn't even play the full year. At the same age, A-Gone was putting up a 821 OPS in AAA.
A-Gone's 09 was a career year, and his '10 inflated by luck. He had a high IBB (35 last year!) and BABIP. I think hes a true talent 4 WAR player, but his potential is not in the Upton-class. Upton has the talent to be one the best players in baseball.
I really think Adrian Gonzalez is becoming overrated. Hes a very good player, but hes not a star (either than '09).
34
...... RR .... Trading Ackley STRAIGHT UP for Upton would be a suicidally stupid idea...trading Ackley and Pineda for Upton should get Zduriencik fired and arrested for grand theft by the citizenry of Seattle. Baker has gone off the deep end. ... RR .... Sorry...the gloves are off now.
35
Maybe you could take your swings at Mariner Central ;- )
Considering the second link that Spec gave us ("start with" Ackley) I'm delighted to see the first link.
.......................
Can't blame Arizona for setting the first number at double price ... and often these negotiations find their levels ...
But I never did like Justin Upton as much as most people do. Reason #1 being B.J. Upton.
36
Adrian's road OPS, last 5 years:
2010: .980
2009: 1.045
2008: .946
2007: .928
2006: .905
His home park is killing him. He would even more recognized for his hitting prowess if he was out of Petco, not less.
Justin Upton, when outside of the 3rd best hitting park in the majors: .742 OPS. His best year in the admittedly small sample size is 50 points less than Adrian's worst in that 5 year span. Yes, Upton is still on his way up on the career arc - potentially way up - and this is as good as Adrian's gonna get.
It's not enough for me to say Upton is as good as Adrian now. He's just not. Put him in Petco and find out just how deflated his stats get. Put Adrian in Arizona and he'd be an 8 WAR player, not a 4. Their park differences are that extreme. IMO.
~G
37
Taro da champ, but don't know where the Upton-AGone thingy is comin' from. :- ) Yer as out to lunch on that one as I am on Guti's difference, sempai -
Upton's fine, real nice upside, but this would be our One Big Move (for the decade) ... but! your One Big Move is going to be [a gamble career arc] AND [a terrible match for the park] ?!
No sale. You lay out Pineda/Guti +, much less Smoak, and you can get a guy you'll really be happy with.
Can't gamble in the first round of a roto draft. Your franchise player has got to deliver, and huge.
...............
Rasmus would be sweet, yeah, and you don't figure him to cost the fillings out of your teeth. Your socks, maybe.
38
Roto is a little different. I definetly don't take Upton over A-Gone just yet in ROTO, but given the defense+baserunning they're basically a push right now on WAR. In real world value they are the roughly the same IMO and Upton has upside beyond this.
A-Gone is getting IBBs a TON. Hes pretty overrated in regards of OBP. His park is brutal, but 90% of the time park factors are overstated. I think A-Gone is a park neutral 880-900 OPS hitter.
39
That said, if Upton is overpricing himself I look at Rasmus definetly.
Once you start getting into Ackley or Pineda+Smoak, it really starts becoming gamble. That doesn't mean we might not be kicking ourselves for doing it in a year, but its a lot to risk. Probably too much to risk.
40
You say Upton's '09 would be AGON's 2nd best season. AGON has two seasons over .899, (both '09 and '10).
But AGON has 5 seasons above .849 - (none below) - while Upton already has 2 below.
In the 'general' sense, yes, I agree that park effects "CAN BE" overstated - and should not be taken as gospel when "projecting" onto individuals. But, when you actually look at road-only stats - you have by definition removed any home-park bias (real or otherwise).
Upton's career road OPS is .742 - no bias. (852 PAs)
AGON has a road OPS of .944 - no bias. (1881 PAs)
That is a 200 point OPS edge for AGON. Not 2. Not 20. Two HUNDRED.
=================
Here's what I think. I think the knowledge of age-arc results is almost certainly CHANGING the decisions on young player promotion. The age-arc studies HAVE to be done looking at players who are already deep into their careers, (or done with them).
As noted - the sample set of .899 hitting 21-year-olds is REAL small. Then again, baseball, for most of the 20th century was the #1 sport in slow development. While still today there are .850 hitters languishing in the minors for years - there are also an increasing number of orgs that are buying into the rapid deployment philosophy.
In looking at the age comps at bb-ref for Upton - there are some "good" players - Juan Gone, Boog Powell, Andruw Jones. His age 21 comp included Miguel Cabrera and Hank Aaron and Willie Mays - but they *ALL* dropped off the list after his age 22 season.
At age 21, immediately after the .899 season - yes, it is easy to peg Upton as a potential future HoFer. After his age 22 season, where he hits .799, his projection drops to borderline All-Star, (Andruw level).
You can only project him as a potential best-in-game by ignoring his 2010 season completely.
Is there a chance 2010 was an anomaly - just growing pains? Sure. But, there's ALSO the possibility that 2009 was the anomaly.
But, mostly what I don't quite get is why the 172-K/season Upton seems more like a best-of-his-generation candidate when placed beside the 125-K/season AGON.
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G: Upton's price better fall to something less that Ackley or Pineda or Smoak. I suppose I "might" consider a Pineda package...but it would have to include MILB guys. I don't think I would even do a Guti-Pineda package.
Doc: I was hoping somebody would mention BJ Upton. I nearly did once or twice. Kudo's to you. BJ Upton was the original Upton hot flash. His '07 made him the newest youngest hottest thing. But since? He hasn't shown much. In '07 he hit 24 homers but he's only hit 38 in three seasons since. he had an anomolous number of walks in '08 (perhaps as pitchers were worried about his '07 power) but he hasn't shown that in the last two years...or in '07. Essentially he's a 100 OPS guy. Nice, but not that nice, and living on production he no longer shows. I suspect that Justin has some of that, ergo my use of the word "precocious" to describe him.
Taro: Any GM who would trade AGone for Justin Upton, straight up, should be relieved of command, pronto.
AG is currently a .300-.400-.500 (essentially) guy with mid-30+ homer power.....in a crappy park. Oh...he's won two GG's.
That is what Upton MIGHT become, in a hitters park.
Think of it this way. In 1999, if you had Carlos Delgado, would you have traded him for Andruw Jones? Those two hava about the same career arcs, at that point, as Upton and AG.
You could basically do the same with Jason Giambi, as his career was similar at the 1999 point, but then exploded from there (especially in OPB)...so I won't pose the question with him.
Your mileage may vary, of course.
moe
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I think I keep Pineda. He's not part of an Upton package for me.
Mark Reynolds, Josh Willingham (who appears to be kind of available) and cheapeer, and solid, alternatives.
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With A-Gone's contract situation, he has less value right now than either Pineda or Smoak.
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The big thing for me is the talent IMO. None of those comps were as highly rated as Upton.
Home/Road can get blown out of proportion, especially for high-end talent. I remember when Soriano was a sub 700 OPS guy away from Arlington for several years and actually got better the second he left.
WAR includes park factors. Upton's 5.6 WAR in '09 as a 22 year old MISSING 20+% of the season would have been the 2nd best year in A-Gone's CAREER.
A-Gone never even had a 4 WAR season until his age 27 career year.
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My guess is that the UZR part of WAR is giving Upton 10-15 runs too many defensively...this 20 runs as a corner outfielder stuff won't fly as something you can project confidently that he'll do long term. I would only be comfortable saying he's MAYBE a +10 outfielder...in which case, he's more like a 4 WAR player than a 5+ WAR player.
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Actually, hes around the upper end of +5-10 runs defensively by most metrics. UZR has him right around the middle of that since hes missed time the past couple years.
Hes a very good defensive RF, but not Ichiro-good which seems about right.
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Is what most of us would probably be glad to pay for.
When you're getting into PAYING for 15, 18 runs each and every season, there are maybe a handful of CENTER fielders you can be confident towards.
The fleet Upton is getting you runs in the corner, no doubts there. And especially compared to many of the 35-homer bats who are -10...
Much of Upton's D-value is that he's a thumper who isn't *minus* ... :- ) comp Upton to Manny and yes we are talking 20+ runs on the barrelhead...
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The big thing for me is the talent IMO. None of those comps were as highly rated as Upton.
If we were talking about basketball, I would agree whole heartedly physical size and talent win out 99% of the time.
If we were talking about football, I would also mostly be nodding my head in agreement. Size and Talent win out most of the time there too (scheme and intelligence especially for the QB means a lot too though)
But in baseball I have just seen too many highly naturally talented guys fail and too many slow fat white guys succeed to be convinced that Upton is some god like up and comer just based on his raw talent. And age (especially these days) is meaning less and less to me. In this instant, dot com, everything must be hyped era we live in today it seems like any prized recruit or draft pick is zoomed up the system and over hyped until i want to puke, and I think Upton is partially a product of that. In generations past or in other orgs, he would still be a great prospect slowly working his way up the minor leagues. So you have to find the fine line between accessing an actual players talent, assessing an orgs development philosophy, and accessing a players life situation (college vs. pros, late growth spurt, growing up in Canada, etc.) when using age / arc / comps as such a heavy thumb on the scale. Further I actually think that Uptons age is a NEGATIVE, in this case. It sure looks like to me that Upton has neither the patience or concentration to be a baseball player. He comes up to the majors when everything is exciting and the Dbacks are sniffing at the playoffs and everything is new, and he does great, but in a long and lost year he just kind of goes through the motions. Something we complained about with J-Lo for years.
**Warning this is now becoming philisophical, you may move on now :) **
These kids no longer get into sports because they LOVE the game, they get thrust into it very early because of their size and raw talent and because a grown up around them sees: $$$$$$$. And these players while they exude talent and when their situations are good they are good they cant grind through the swoons and slumps very well. One of my favorite things about Ackley is that he is a "dirt dog". He LOVE baseball, he would play it for free if there was no MLB. I do NOT get that sense from Upton and THAT would make me very worried about trading a huge haul for him. You compared him to Hamilton and I would point out that Hamilton is a guy that had to go through YEARS of addiction and being out of baseball before he realized how much he actually loved, missed and needed baseball. Of course I don't think Upton will go down the path of drugs, but I can see him taking the long way back to stardom as he struggles with whether he really loves baseball or not. Bryce Harper is another guy I would be worried about with this. Baseball is a HARD sport one of the big reasons why it is hard is this: 162. Notice that Upton has never been able to play more than 140. 162 games i very hard both physically, but even more so mentally. I agree Upton is extremely physically talented. I just don't know about his mentality yet. Can he grind, or will he mope and wallow in his slumps? Is he going to work his way through swoons, or will he take the Yuni / J-lo road?
Sorry for the long post ;)