Doc,
I love your stuff - and your mechanical analyses are top flight. But, I must admit a disconnect when your hyperbole in talking about "fixing" mechanics gets so strong --- especially on a case where by your own admission the mechanics are so obivously bad that tribesman in the Kalahari could tell him how to fix it.
This is not a 17-year-old out of High school. He's a kid in his SIXTH profession season. I think it's a pretty safe assumption that MULTIPLE professional pitching coaches have been working to fix his mechanics for 6 years (and 650 innings). Sure, he had 12 good innings in Tacoma - (control-wise) - but that was after posting a 5.7 BB/9 in 84 innings in West Tenn *THIS SEASON*.
How can his mechanics be so miserable on one pitch and look great on the next? It's not because he hasn't gotten instruction. It's because he's not CAPABLE of repeating his motion from pitch to pitch, (at this point). The sad truth with these "wild thing" guys that have supernatural abilities - is that when they are walking 6 guys a game they *ARE* doing the best that they can.
Yeah, a guy like Batista might voluntarily allow his walk rate to go from 3 to 4, in order to avoid making mistakes against the guys that can do real damage. But *NOBODY* takes the mound INTENDING to walk 5 guys a game.
That doesn't mean he'll NEVER get it - (though you note several guys who never did). But, if after 6 years of professional instruction, he's still throwing like Nuke LaLoosh in A-ball, then "fixing him" has already been clearly proven as NOT a trivial exercise.
That said - Morrow is a case where a kid had control problems with a fraction of the mechanical difficulties of Cortes'. In 2010, under new management, he improved. He had a wonderful second half, (though his 4.1 Bb/9 for the season is barely palatable - even when fanning 10).
My objection here is not to be excited about a possible dominant arm for the bullpen of tomorrow. My objection is a tone that suggests (or states clearly) that this outcome is somewhere between easy-as-pie and pre-ordained. Take it from a guy who got to see the good, bad & ugly from Rocker and Wohlers -- VOLATILITY is the least desireable trait anyone wants in a reliever. Today - Cortes is volatile squared.
I'll take a dozen Hoffman's, throwing the same pinpoint slop night in night out over any of these wunderkinds that have off-the-charts "stuff" that they can throw every other pitch.
That said - I do think there's room for optimism. The club has improved the control of a number of pitchers in the past two seasons. Fister, Vargas, Aardsma - (Aardsma may be the best comp for Cortes at this point, btw).
Me? I wouldn't expect much except frustration in 2011 as DC ranges oscilates through good and bad spells, (sometimes in the same game). Age 25 ... that's the point where the brain matures, and "maybe" the instruction finally takes.
Unfortunately, at this point, he's a near lock for the 2011 bullpen. In case nobody has noticed, Garrett Olson happens to be the most "dominant" pitcher in the bullpen (not on the DL with more than 9 innings pitched) at this point, (7.1 K/9). (I hope Lonnie doesn't read this - he may leap off a tall building).
Q. Wow, is this kid Neftali Perez or what?
A. What. :- )
This is the kinda arm that gets you named top pitcher in your org, whether or not it comes with luxury amenities such as .... a head, a line of success, or a pro delivery ... attached.
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Q. He doesn't have a pro delivery?
A. If he went through the Bibbity-Bobbity-Majin, Super and Kid Boo evolutions, then he would be short of a pro delivery. Right now he's got, I dunno what.
Check the vid dropped in by Spec. You might want to install that rubber mouthguard they use for electroshock. Then run the vid, 1st and 3rd pitches (the fastballs) and ... watch the decel.
For a normal pitcher, say, one in 11th grade or higher, the torso should be roughly parallel to the ground as the arm comes through. The torso remains bent over as the drag foot comes around, dissipating energy.
Cortes chooses an alternate path to decel, that being the Pinocchio "Look papa! I'm a corporate puppet!," because the fact that HE NEVER BENDS OVER AT ALL EVEN THE SLIGHTEST BIT creates an animated 6-string dance routine as he tries to decide, on the spur of the moment, how to take the torque off his lead ankle.
I played it, I dunno, 10 or 12 times .... until I could watch it, without being reduced to a banging pile of rubble :- )
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Q. Well, if it's just a weird decel...
A. HEH! You wish, Mr. Wetteland, you wish.
If you want a fresh round of laughs, watch Danny's head on those 1st and 3rd pitches. If he'd had an earwig, it would have landed in the Commissioner's box.
And, believe me, that's just a sampling.
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Q. Are these checklist points, negotiable? Could he do okay without the second half of a pitching motion?
A. We're not talking about checklists. We're talking about physics that are fundamentally chaotic, dysfunctional and counter-productive.
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Q. Is he capable of fixing it?
A. He did fix it, on pitch two. It was a slider, and he didn't go lunatic at the sight of one finger. The inner choice to settle on precision, rather than macho, completely fixed everything.
I'll buy yet another round, of laughs, that is: watch pitch two, the slider, and watch Dr. Jekyll demonstrate a glassy-smooth decel, complete with nose-to-leather, high back foot and all the trimmings.
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Comments
Sandy sez: "Unfortunately, at this point, he's a near lock for the 2011 bullpen. In case nobody has noticed, Garrett Olson happens to be the most "dominant" pitcher in the bullpen (not on the DL with more than 9 innings pitched) at this point, (7.1 K/9). (I hope Lonnie doesn't read this - he may leap off a tall building)." I think I just threw-up in my mouth! Lonnie
With a delivery like that, I'll be more sympathetic. :- )
Can you name some other pitcher you've ever seen, who remains completely upright on his followthrough and then hops an unpredictable jig after he lets the ball go?
Flaws are one thing. Cortes' followthrough is a different sport - synchro skating or something. :- )
Along with, remarkably, a 4.58 xFIP also.
In minimum exposure - 35 innings - Olson managed to cobble together a 4.58 ERA ... in Safeco Field, with 2-3 center fielders behind him.
Those aren't 35 innings that you want to overemphasize next March. :- )
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Luke French's ERA was 4.20. Pauley's was 3-something. Jamey Wright's was 3-something. Brian Sweeney's was.
Garrett Olson is a fine pitcher in the absolute sense, but in the relative (American League) sense, nada.
No. I got no comps.
I'm just saying ... professionals have been 'fixing' Cortes for 6 years. He is what he is AFTER 6 years of training.
I'm not saying you're not correct that *IF* he got his mechanics in order, he could and likely would be a great pitcher -- I'm saying that the horribleness of his delivery after 6 years of work is a LOT of evidence that he is not going to easily overcome his current issues.
I remember your being VERY pessimistic about Aardsma's ability to repeat his 2009 success. I'm not clear why you were down on Aardsma then but up on Cortes now.
Good stuff Doc.
Aardsma is not exactly mechanically sound either. Some high velocity relievers just get away with it.
He is what he is AFTER 6 years of training.
That one made me sit up in alarm :- )
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No swipe at the pro's is intended. The spirit of our post, is merely that Cortes is awfully good, considering, with a lot of upside if he solves his problemos.
for a while, until he grooved in his weird delivery enough to throw strikes consistently.
No telling how long it will take Cortes, if he sticks with the Pinocchio followthrough. Could be tomorrow, or could be five years on...
The kid has Gossage stuff, no doots there...
Good analysis and shows why most end up in the bullpen. I had never seen him pitch and was wishing that the link would like you go freeze frame but maybe just as well. Hey, Miller Barber and now Jim Furyk look awful except at impact....why not? Good articles!