Jeter: Final two years in the minors
'94 (20 years old) A+-AA-AAA 617 PA's 5 HR's .463 slg%
'95 (21 years old) AAA 558 PA's 2 HR's .422 slg%
Ackley
'10 (22 years old) AA-AAA 439 PA's 3 HR's .387 slg%
Ackley's AAA BA and SLG% are actually better than his AA numbers.
The slugging difference was really due to Jeter's 20 triples over those two years. Only 5 for Ackley. Jeter also hit .344 an .317 over those two years, but had two full ears of wood bats before that. Ackley is on his first. BTW, Jeter was a .955 fielding SS over those two seasons, Ackley is a .961 fielding 2B.
Jeter had OPB's of .410 and .394. Ackley's is .387.
The comparison isn't that bad. If the shoe fits, wear it.
Pedroia (final year in minors)
'06 (22 years old) AAA 493 PA's 5 HR's .426 slg%
His BA was .305 and his OBP was .384
In '05 he split between AA and AAA. His numbers were similar with a positive influence due to his AA #'s.
Looks like that shoe fits, too! He was a .990 fielding 2B and a .980 SS over those two years.
Maybe he won't be Jeter/Pedroia.....Maybe. But he projects to be close. And that's still a mighty fine MLB'er! How's that for your 2B for the next 10 years (if the M's don't blow it...Something I'm less confident about each day)?
moe
=== Cross-Check Dept. ===
This kid has a razor-fine eye, he has an idea, he punishes mistakes, he gets to ball three and then he knows how to get another one. We still owe yer several posts on our cross-check of Ackley, but just real quick ....
Here's a kid where a sizzling lefty -- on an A night -- throws him a crackling LH curve four inches outside, and Ackley half-positions the bat with the greatest of ease. You could look it up.
Here's a guy where, a LH slider jussssst nips back over the plate in the last few feet, and Ackley suddenly SNNNAPS those wrists through and smokes it down the RF line.
(BTW, I dunno what got into Zack Kroenke that night -- just got converted to the rotation, I guess -- but he was throwing 91-94 with REAL nice location, and his yellow hammer was rolling off the table. I'm going, what, the next Cole Hamels and I never heard of him? ... the recent conversion must explain why Kroenke had a no-no in the 5th, and gave up two scratch baserunners, and the coach was out there...
Kroenke was giving the Rainiers' righties fits all night; Greg Halman looked like he should be back in rookie ball. But Dustin Ackley, LH-on-LH, was completely comfortable.)
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There are a few hitters who just don't swing at balls outside the strike zone. They can tell a ball from a strike real early.
And when the ball swerves into the strike zone they just unleash and take the ball out of the catcher's glove. No brag, just fact, I am here to tell you that Ackley is up there hitting in a wiffleball game. You just can't trick him. It's unpossible.
Ackley doesn't cheat, he waits, he observes like Peyton Manning peering studiously over his offensive line and then ... he makes his own decision, not the pitcher's.
All hype aside, this guy is the real blinkin' deal, controlling his strike zone. He's got Edgar-class strike zone protection.
......................
Yeah, some guys post high OBP's by waiting PCL pitchers out and then the OBP goes up in smoke as ML pitchers "book" him and dare the hitter to do something with pitches X and Y. But Ackley isn't getting his OBP's that way.
...........................
Dunno about anything else, but the OBP is a given. Biiigggggg upset if Ackley isn't at least a Durham / Pedroia level player. You got a .400 OBP guy with legs playing in the middle of the diamond, and he's going to be an All-Star.
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My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
Repost from one buried in a thread at MC:
Second basemen over .370 OBP in the majors:2010: Kinsler, Cano, Utley, Weeks, Kelly Johnson, Pedroia (some guys will fall out as the season goes on)2009: Utley, Pedroia, Castillo2008: Theiroit, Utley, Roberts, Pedroia, Kinsler
8 guys did it in 07, 3 in 06...and it's mostly the same guys, with some career years thrown in.
All-Stars on this list: Kinsler in 2008 and 10, Cano in 2010, Utley and Pedroia every year, Castillo and Roberts have been multiple times before...If you can put up that kind of OBP, regardless of power, you should see a couple of All-Star games.
OBP is a big stat for a MIF - and Ackley should be hanging around .370 as a low end projection.
His ultra-low end is Castillo at the plate, actually - average is good, though up and down, he has no power, but he can still command the zone and get a lot of walks even though he's just a slap hitter (OBP is .368 lifetime). Castillo's career OPS+ is 92, and that's with an ISO of .062.
Who thinks Ackley can only manage career highs of 6 HR and 23 2B in a season to match this low projection? Roberts would be the next step up from that with a 104 OPS+ and a .137 ISO. But if the power comes and he's not "just" a .280-.300 hitter? Sky's the limit.
Ackley at 1B or LF would need to find power fast. Ackley at 2B? With the positional adjustment he'll be deserving of All-Star and ROY votes year one, and we can afford the time to let him find some muscle in his swing.
Utley at 22 was not impressive, btw. .750 OPS in A+ ball. The Phillies jumped him to AAA the next year, skipping AA entirely because they knew he was great.
Pedroia looked just about like Ackley has after his first month's adjustment. He stepped into the bigs at 23 (in a hitter's park, true) and was a 112 OPS+ hitter from day one. Dustin is right on schedule, with a skillset to match.
BTW, the seasons the Ms have had a 2B exceed .370 OBP in mostly full-time play:
2001: Bret Boone, .372.
That's it. In their history, it's been done once. Ackley should put his name on that list in short order.
~G
Repost from one buried in a thread at MC: Second basemen over .370 OBP in the majors:2010: Kinsler, Cano, Utley, Weeks, Kelly Johnson, Pedroia (some guys will fall out as the season goes on)2009: Utley, Pedroia, Castillo2008: Theiroit, Utley, Roberts, Pedroia, Kinsler 8 guys did it in 07, 3 in 06...and it's mostly the same guys, with some career years thrown in.
All-Stars on this list: Kinsler in 2008 and 10, Cano in 2010, Utley and Pedroia every year, Castillo and Roberts have been multiple times before...If you can put up that kind of OBP, regardless of power, you should see a couple of All-Star games.
OBP is a big stat for a MIF - and Ackley should be hanging around .370 as a low end projection.
His ultra-low end is Castillo at the plate, actually - average is good, though up and down, he has no power, but he can still command the zone and get a lot of walks even though he's just a slap hitter (OBP is .368 lifetime). Castillo's career OPS+ is 92, and that's with an ISO of .062.
Who thinks Ackley can only manage career highs of 6 HR and 23 2B in a season to match this low projection? Roberts would be the next step up from that with a 104 OPS+ and a .137 ISO. But if the power comes and he's not "just" a .280-.300 hitter? Sky's the limit.
Ackley at 1B or LF would need to find power fast. Ackley at 2B? With the positional adjustment he'll be deserving of All-Star and ROY votes year one, and we can afford the time to let him find some muscle in his swing.
Utley at 22 was not impressive, btw. .750 OPS in A+ ball. The Phillies jumped him to AAA the next year, skipping AA entirely because they knew he was great.
Pedroia looked just about like Ackley has after his first month's adjustment. He stepped into the bigs at 23 (in a hitter's park, true) and was a 112 OPS+ hitter from day one. Dustin is right on schedule, with a skillset to match. BTW, the seasons the Ms have had a 2B exceed .370 OBP in mostly full-time play:
2001: Bret Boone, .372.
That's it. In their history, it's been done once. Ackley should put his name on that list in short order.
~G