Q. Getting Saunders triangulated yet?
A. Despite some differences -- the balance-and-swing are different; Saunders isn't as hugely gifted; etc -- Saunders starts to remind of Darryl Strawberry.
Strawberry also had:
Early on, people thought that Saunders would be a 5-tool guy, a guy who would hit .300 with walks and doubles and a few homers.
He's starting to look to me like a guy who will hit .257 with 30-35 homers and good speed. I don't like Michael Saunders' chances to ever hit .300, with that pull swing, but I sure as shootin' like his chances to hit 30 bombs.
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Q. Could Saunders be AS good as Strawberry? 335 homers sounds good to me.
A. Mick ain't as talented. Nobody is. Strawberry came up with ARod-style hype, and was a bona fide ML cleanup hitter at the age of 21.
On the other hand, Strawberry derailed his own career with substance abuse, and you can see that after age 26 he fell off terribly. Saunders could have a Darryl Strawberry career in terms of final results, considering that Strawberry should have hit 600 homers rather than 300.
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We're not talking about a guy posting 160-OPS+ seasons, not with Saunders' multi-sport background and funky Stargell scatter chart. We're talking about a ballplayer shooting to rate a 7 on the template chart that Strawberry scored 10 on.
But I think that Saunders could have peak seasons that are like Strawberry's (prorated) age 21-22 seasons were: .260 with 30 homers, 90+ RBI, 25 stolen bases, 50:130 EYE.
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Q. Other comps?
A. Other players who are on this scale, but not 10's on it like Strawberry was : Jeromy Burnitz, who was a 6 on the Strawberry Meter; Ryan Klesko, a slow 7 on the Straw Meter; Geoff Jenkins is a perfect 7 on the meter. Funny how two all-time Brewers are on the list. Maybe Capt Jack will put a thumb on the scale.
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Garret Anderson is an example of a guy who is not in this category because his HIT skill was too high. We're talking about players with questionable contact, but real good power.
Neither are you talking about Adam Dunn types, who walk a lot. Michael Saunders is not going to be a TTO pitch-stalker. I see him in the Strawberry template -- lots of K's, not a lot of walks*, excellent power ... with speed tossed in randomly.
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What I find interesting, is that people figured since Saunders is a 5-tool guy physically, he'd have a rounded ML game. I don't think he'll have a rounded ML game at all. I think he'll have power and speed, but maybe not much HIT or BB or OBP.
Don't judge Saunders on AVG or OBP. Keep an eye on his HR rate. That will probably be the key to his staying power.
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Q. Why didn't you call the article "Michael Saunders and Geoff Jenkins"?
A. Probably shoulda. But Jenkins had a Thome-style body, almost the opposite of Saunders physically. I'm taken with the physical similarities between Saunders and Strawberry -- the length, the leverage, the loop, the scary quickness.
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Q. Is that OK? Is it a valuable commodity, a poor man's Darryl Strawberry?
A. A .250 hitter, 33 jacks, you could quibble about whether you wanted him hitting #5-6 for you ... but in this case, Saunders adds lots of defense and speed to the mix. That would make such a player a riiicchhhhh man.
Like Baker says, Michael Saunders might be a better prospect right now than a lot of the guys sold as feature players in a Cliff Lee deal.
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Eyes slideways,
Dr D
Remember those rumors that the hold-up to the Cliff Lee trade was that the Phillies wanted Gillies over Saunders and Z wasn't budging? What? lol
Seriously, hes looking like the LF of the future. A Lefty Mike Cameron? Maybe, hes the best thing about this season (at least at the MLB level).
I'd like to see what Tui is capable of next. I'm not sure what is left for him in AAA with a 1.083 OPS, slugging .750+ in June and his K rate finally getting under control. Maybe we're going to have to sell Lopez for pennies to see that happen, but we need to open a regular spot for the guy.
and see what you've got.
No excuse for not giving this guy a shot. He's the first shot Zduriencik has had at a $400k impact player.
ARod 10-Step Path? ;- )
Tui's liable to be the ultimate 10-step player. After Carlos Guillen, maybe.
I've been critical of Saunders...even called him "Loopy" becasue of the odd swing that he had last year (which is much less odd this year), but he's growing a bit on me. I don't see a player that is going to be an Adam dunn type simply becasue I don't see him walking that much. He's not going to hit for average most years. But I'm getting impressed with the fact that he fields his position well and he hits the ball a LONG ways. 35 taters seems like his upside. He will hit 10 homers a year on balls that he misses...but will still hit the stratosphere and carry the fence. 2006 was rickie Sexton's last good year. Saunders could produce numbers like that during his good years. that's valuable. Of course, he's showing that the inside part of the plate, especially down and in, is a potentially bad place for pitchers to throw. I would susbect we're going to see more and more heat up and away. Can he adjust and LF gap that pitch? I don't know. I suspect not. But he can dial long distance on the miss inside.
As well....he translates fairly well to RF, if and when Ichiro ever shows that he is mortal and can't hit .320 when he is 46.
I'm not convinced that Saunders is there yet...or will be there. but he is sure showing the potential to be a potent ML'er. He needs to be in the lineup every day for the rest of the year. Let's see if he can adjust as pitchers adjust ahead of him.
I'm on the record as really liking Tui's upside. I still do. he's sort of a man without a country right now but I would have loved to see him get 30 straight starts (or Carp) at 1B rather than the signing of Branyan (his homer yesterday not withstanding).
Anyway, go team.
moe
Maybe it's just his length and body type but he reminds me of Jayson Werth. It took Werth a while to get all his tools going for him but he's turned into a heck of an all around baseball player.
Also like the parallels between catching and dubious-start that perhaps push both into the late-bloomer category.
Saunders isn't a late-bloomer though. He's a "fast" bloomer. Zipped through the minors faster than your average spec and starting to show promise faster than your average spec. Hit reasonably well at every stop.
Tui isn't the player-type that Werth is, but he fits more in the "taleted late bloomer" category. Neither guys blazed the minors, neither hit very well at every stop until things starting clicking for them in a repeat of AAA.
I don't know Saunders hes going to become a star like Werth, although there is that kind of upside in him. 770 OPS with great D in a corner and baserunning would make him a VERY nice player. If he starts running high RH/LH splits, you can take full advantage of that as well.
Just wondering: Why do you discount his 60 BB in 431 AB in A+ ball (93 points ISO patience)? High Desert may boost the SLG (though now the .473 he put up there looks legit), but does it make walks illusory?
Remember, after High Desert he was pushed up the ladder outside his comfort zone (20 yrs old in AA, etc.). He didn't really catch up to an age-appropriate level until he was back in AAA this spring at 23. And there he was with 11 BB in 80 AB and 93 points of ISO patience again (11:17 eye ratio).
Taro is dead-on that he's not a late-bloomer in lots of ways, but I think he might be a later-bloomer in terms of eye. And the "didn't focus on just baseball till after high school" element may be a key to that.
When I think late-bloomer I think about (1) how yoo-glee he's looked at times when being pushed hard, and with maybe (2) a subconscious assumption that he should be compared to tippy-top prospects.
Looking at what he might perhaps become, I've been kinda pairing him off against the Buster Poseys, probably, the other PCL top-5'ers.
That's my bad. Of course Saunders isn't behind sched for an impact career.