Remember the Bucky phenomenom: 6yrs ago Bucky Jacobsen joined the Rainers and laid waste to the PCL: 422OBP / 661SLG. Although his strikeouts did run a little high 88K's in about 300 AB. He did counter that with 50 walks.
He joined the M's in mid July at the age of 28 and went on to show that he did leave his game in AAA. Over 160AB he hit 9 HR and 9 doubles while slugging 500, with a 275 avg.
Unfortunately for Mr. Jacobsen a knee injury he suffered in the minors cut his season short and the the failure to fully recover from the subsequent surgery ended his career.
Mike Wilson currently has a lower K rate and his OPS & SLG are very comparable to Bucky's AAA numbers back in 2004.
It would be nice for all of us if Mike could bring a little buz to the M's games the way Bucky did 6yrs ago.
Not meaning to counter with too much gusto :- ) but as you know, we're trying to expand the archive at SSI and this discussion right here is pretty fascinating (to me).
Coulda just kept the response in the thread, but hope y'won't mind if we promote it.
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Q. Justin Leone could be an illustration of Mike Wilson's problems, what say? Could get you some vids on Wilson if y'want.
A. Ya, I saw Wilson plenty in ST 2009, so unless his swing has been re-done we've got a good sense of how he attacks the ball. I actually liked his game in the batter's box even back then. (So did Wok.)
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Leone is an example of a guy who washed out despite a good EYE, no doubts there, but I think if you look again you'll see a career arc that is a different template.
Consider, for example, Leone's EYE in full-season A ball, second year of the minors. What in Wilson's line looks comparable to that? Nuttin...
Leone always swung weirdly through fastballs, had bizarrely amateurish garbage swings on all kinds of pitches, with his calling card being a 1-wood type torque that could go 470 feet if he happened to catch it right.
That was a guy with a real slow launch, a real high throughspeed, and terrible baseball eyes who was never going to hit, but who did manage to "out-experience" his leagues when he got old enough. There's your example of a AAAA player who doesn't have the gifts, but who eventually can figure out how to out-cheat AAA pitching.
Leone was always a TTO pitch stalker, but carried the fatal flaw of minus-minus HIT ability.
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Wilson is a horse of a completely different color for me, a man whose strengths and weaknesses are fundamentally different.
IMHO is essentially a good hitter in need of some tweaks -- for example, compare how short each hitter is/was to the ball -- and Mikey may have found those tweaks.
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But, of course, if your point is that the odds are against Wilson, I definitely agree. Players of all templates fail (and succeed).
No matter what, a guy like that never has chances better than 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, and Leone helps illustrate that. Guys will improve their EYEs eventually, no doubts there. I'm excited about this player finding that eye. :- ) To me it's a bit like Daniel Cabrera finding 7:1 CTL.
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Or not,
Dr D
Comments
That is a good comp I think. :)
...one might say Wilson is now a right handed Russell 'K' Branyan?
In the sense that such a huge guy could afford to let the bat do the work for him, and not have to put a Beltre-in-Safeco swing on it...
And, ya, his first 27 years of life did not produce an ML pedigree, but by the time he got his look in the majors his game worked pretty good there...
Woulda been very interesting to see how he'd have worked out as a DH if he hadn't been too big for his knees...
Some tinkering around with Baseball-Reference.com's Player Index has come up with a few comparable players to what might be Mike Wilson's upside: Brian Daubach, and Garrett Jones. Both players struggled with their strikeouts in the minors before cutting them back just enough, and learning to take pitches enough to jump to the majors. Garrett Jones is probably the better comp, as he is much closer physically (6'-4"/230) as well as demonstrating monster power throughout his minor league career while having trouble getting an above average walk rate (in that respect, Mike is already beyond Garrett, though Garrett struck out a bit less) with a little bit of speed. Garrett is obviously just starting his career, but Brian Daubach was a fairly solid fixture in Boston's lineup for 4 years before collapsing with the White Sox in 2003. As for Garrett, his OPS has dropped this year, but his strikeout rate has actually gotten better and his walk rate has held pretty steady so it's hard to say how long he'll last. Garrett Jones should probably be Mike Wilson's role model as when Garret made the jump to the majors, he's mostly maintained his power numbers, while improving both his walk and strikeout rates.
Last night Mike Wilson and Matt Mangini were batting 8th and 9th in the order.
If somebody thinks either one is nearly ready for the show, they're sure not maximizing their at bats to prove it.
~G
Wilson was drafted in 2001. It's not like they aren't familiar with the man. He has yet to get even a cup of coffee in those 9 years.
At the start of the year, he was assigned to AA because they wanted Saunders, Carrera and Halman in Tacoma.
Even if there is a dramatic change in his approach, it seems to me that it will take more than the usual amount of "eye-opening" in this case, because he's not only been put in the "not useful from an MLB point of view" pile, he's been put way down near the end of THAT list. When you're about to turn 27 and they send you back to AA after you've already spent time in AAA (and you first got promoted to AA in 2006), no one can take that as a good sign.
It seems to me (and it's just me) that if he was someone they wanted to keep at the ready because Wak thought he might turn into something, they wouldn't bury him at AA. They chose to see what Halman could do at AAA instead.
Not against him. Just saying I think he's been labeled as filler and first he has to overcome that perception before they consider him for a promotion.
When Mike was first signed out of HS he was a switch hitter. It obviously hindered his progress, it took him 2yrs to get out of Arizona Rookie Ball. I believe it wasn't until he was 4yrs into his minor league career still at A level in Wisconsin before he finally decided to forgo batting left handed.
He also lost some significant time due to injury in 2009 he had a high ankle sprain and I believe when he came back he pulled a rib cage muscle. In 2007 he was hindered nearly the entire year by pulled muscles in his legs. So although he is 27, he did lose a couple of development years.
But back to Switch Hitting, it seems to me it hinders the advancement / development of prospects more than it helps.
I agree Mr. Wilson still needs to prove himself to the M's brass. When our GM was first hired he was at least somewhat enamored by Mike, he initially placed him on the 40man roster. We will see if Mike can continue to perform and if he does, it really does not matter where the AAA manager is placing him in the batting order.
Gotta slam-dance of Daubach when I get a sec. Gracias.
Would like to hear Brown's explanation for that.
It's not like Guillermo Quiroz or Tommy Everidge were being prioritized. :- )
And it's not like he doesn't know that he put a 1,000 and a 900 OPS at the bottom of the lineup.
They were slumping? Mike Wilson had just hit 3 homers in 4 days and next day, he's #8.
Discipline? Nah. I'd like to hear Brown's reason.
Now THAT blows my mind. Visualize, say, Cecil Fielder or Bucky Jacobsen or Bo Jackson switch-hitting?!
Ya, agree that in some senses you could argue a Carlos Guillen-like age deficit there.
After the lost 2009 season, he lost his place in line for sure.
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On the other hand, there was the near-roster spring training and there is the promotion to Cheney last month.
Agree that the burden of proof is on him .... which he is delivering.
If the M's are genuinely sabermetric, they're going to pay attention to an EYE jump of that magnitude.
Yep, he was a swich hitter. see the attached web link to a Hickey PI article back in 2007.
http://www.seattlepi.com/baseball/305603_mari01.html
The failed SW project is going to deflect his career arc. No doubt about that.
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Thought I was kidding about his playing big-time college football as a LB. He was going to Oklahoma, eh.
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Am considerably more intrigued by Wilson after you pointed that out. Gotta move his chances (of getting say 2,000 ML at-bats) from like 25% to like 40%.