Whatever the case, Taijuan Walker is a freak, and at his best he was reported to have four "nightmarish" pitches, so the M's are obviously thinking, if they can Joe Montana him, they've got unlimited upside.
Yep - I was just hoping to avoid another Brandon Morrow/ Philippe Aumont training case. I'm really hoping we sign the kid in we drafted in the third, Ryne Stanek, because he looks much more in the Chris Tillman mold - a guy with repetition in his delivery and still-improving stuff who has been pitching for a few years instead of just in between basketball practices.
I've kinda soured on pure athletes. I like athletic baseball players, but the ability to jump high or punch hard isn't really related to the rotational mastery and hand-eye coordination required to conquer baseball. At least IMO.
Seen one too many Greg Halmans/Mike Wilsons/Josh Womacks I guess. Drafting Denny Almonte instead of Mike Stanton because Denny could have 5 tools he never masters instead of the 4 that Mike will shortly be throttling the NL with.
However we do surely seem to be loading up on prep picks early (12 of our first 22 picks). We're never gonna sign em all, so I'm guessing that we grabbed our first two picks as signables and the rest are gonna get offered 1/5th of our pool for the 10 picks - first five guys to say yes get it.
That's an interesting way to add high-ceiling talent in the domestic draft, if we do it and pull it off.
~G
=== Exceptions that Prove the Rule ===
Two exceptions to this: (1) the stolen-base king. There isn't a reason in the world you can't take a track star, teach him to hit decently, and make an impact ML ballplayer out of him because of his speed on offense and defense. Despite the fact that he will probably never be more than a middle-of-the-pack ML hitter as such.
(2) The super-powerful hitter/5-tool guy, the Bo Jackson type. Even this guy won't become a franchise player, but if his hand/eye coordination is (say) class-AA level, the rest of his attributes may tell...
To be useful to me, any "study" would have to edit out the SB kings. Sure, you can use track speed to affect a baseball game. That does not tell you whether Taijuan Walker has a better or worse chance of ever achieving ML command of his fastball.
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It's only a general principle, and I'll enjoy hearing about the counter-example HOF pitchers who were track stars and football players. :- ) The "I'm a ballplayer, not an athlete" principle is talking about tendencies, not absolutes!
As well, remember that the M's were using what, a #44 overall or whatever, so they're rolling the dice, whatever is the case.
Guess here is that Taijuan Walker's ability to jump 40 inches vertical, or whatever, did not factor in to their draft decision. Tell you what would have factored in, though, and that was the "flashes" ...
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=== Joe Montana Principle ===
Bill Walsh, after he retired, noted that Joe Montana only played a couple of good games at Notre Dame (IIRC), which is why Montana slid to the 3rd... Walsh reasoned, hey, the kid is erratic, but his highs are much higher than other kids' highs. Walsh considered it his job to teach Montana how to play at that level all the time.
There's nothing a scouting director loves to get ahold of more, than a kid who at one time or another has looked like Dwight Gooden. What a blank canvas on which to paint his Rembrandt...
Compared to other #43 overall's, Walker has shown much less consistency -- and therefore has also shown much more talent. This is reflected in some of the scouting reports. He's a dice roll. I like dice rolls that late in the draft. Why would you want to take an eventual quality AAA player with your #43?
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Finally, if there is an advantage to Walker's athleticism, it is that it never hurts to have power-to-weight ratio. Tim Lincecum and Ichiro can throw, run, and hit twice as long as other players, and the big secret is their power-to-weight ratio. Walker does have the advantage that his stride and CG transfer will be completely effortless, like Lincecum's, and that is one factor that takes pressure off his arm...
Lincecum used to throw 140 pitches at the UW and then enjoy foul-line-to-foul-line long toss games the next morning...
Whatever the case, Taijuan Walker is a freak, and at his best he was reported to have four "nightmarish" pitches, so the M's are obviously thinking, if they can Joe Montana him, they've got unlimited upside.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
a guy with repetition in his delivery and still-improving stuff who has been pitching for a few years instead of just in between basketball practices.
That made me bust out laughing. Not even sure why.
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Elliott's insights on rotational power may help explain, for me, the apparent syndrome that basketball and football don't help ballplayers get better.
Interesting, in contrast, that the great 90's Braves rotation loved to play the rotational sport of golf.
If Walker can make supp-1st round while pitching "in between basketball practices," then in theory he's got all kinds of room for growth ...
Tuiasosopo is a bit of a comparison here ... focused more on football, and despite his weirdly bad start in the minors had a lot of his learning curve out in front of him...
Who knows. Maybe Walker will immerse himself in baseball and take off. No doubt that is the M's logic with him.
Nothin wrong with being the next Babe Didrikson Zaharias. More power to him if he can pull it off. In the meantime, sign the next two pitchers we drafted.
One is a Tillman-like prep juggernaut in the making who fell because he pressed too hard and the other got booted from the NCAA after a protracted legal fight but was perhaps the best college LHP in last year's draft. It was likely him or Rex Brothers - yes, the same Rex Brothers currently crushing the low minors for the Rockies while Steve Baron looks impotent in the MWL.
Lock up those guys and then see if you can get Taijuan to be Sidd Finch. Who knows? Maybe it's a GREAT pick, and he'll be able to take his sometimes-electric stuff and make it electric all the time, with perfect health. Nobody knows. All the scouts can say is, "when he's on, he's amazing." And then you figure out if you believe you can get him to be on often enough to be worth the pick.
It being pitching, however, even the greatest arm can be made ordinary through injury or inability to harness stuff. Which is why I want as many talented backup plans as we can afford.
~G
I thought of the Tui parallel as well. And I side with youse both about being more interested in the Nick Franklin style pick than the uber-athlete pick.
The other thing with the guys blessed with freakish pure athleticism... there's a greater liklihood they haven;t had to work as hard to excel, or success has come more easily than guys who have been more dogged. If Walker is showing great things with little development, I think it's not safe at all to extrapolate some seriously skewed learning curve. The tell would be if he plateaus early and can work himself out of that to the next level.
This pick surprised me quite a bit, because it just doesn't seem like Z's style. Mighta been my own bias reading in to it, but what little I heard of his comments on the pick, he didn't sound super enthusiastic. Gut feeling, Z chose to let McNamara take the guy he wanted, but if it was up to him, it would've been someone else. Wild speculation, that.
The other thing with the guys blessed with freakish pure athleticism... there's a greater liklihood they haven't had to work as hard to excel, or success has come more easily than guys who have been more dogged.
Bingo ...
Undoubtedly a kid who, since he was six or seven year old, has been a hot dog... groovin' on through his classes and his scoring titles...
Try and teach a kid like that how to grip a baseball...
Overgeneralizing a bit here, I think. There was no bigger pure athletic freak than Carl Crawford. Offered a full ride to play QB at Nebraska AND offered a full ride to play point guard at UCLA. Probably could have won the Olympic decathlon if he tried. Turned them down to sign with the Rays. Taijuan Walker isn't anywhere close to that situation.
Or the Upton brothers. B.J. had an offer to play WR at Florida State, but their Dad still had aches and pains from college football and steered them toward baseball. Those guys turned out OK.
From what I've seen, Walker has no D-I basketball offers (or else he'd surely be considering them). He's a great athlete, but let's not overstate where he's coming from or assume that hip-hop and dunking means he can't be coached.
Good article and comments gentlemen. How would a scouting report compare between Edgar and Randy Moss? It is amazing to me how much effort is put into the gifted athlete in his Porsche that may never use a portion of it versus the truck driver who can be counted on with his diseal to show up every night.
I can't imagine that having the leg strength and athleticism to dunk is a BAD thing for a pitcher to have. I mean that leg strength can only mean a hotter fastball, right?
However I agree with you guys that typically the Adam Jones' of the world rarely pan out, and even when they do make it to the majors they usually disappoint and under perform expectations (just look at Adam Jones, or Tui as an example).
Anymore I would MUCH RATHER the M's draft the slightly less athletic baseball obsessed dirt dog (Nick Franklin) over the supremely athletic guy with no real baseball skills (Most over our picks in the Bavasi era) that is mostly here because he really enjoyed the sound of "Cha Ching" (taking the guaranteed baseball money over college sports)!
As a quick basketball player turn HOF baseball player aside, I have been reading Selena Roberts biography / expose on Alex Rodriguez, and interestingly enough when he was a 14 year old freshman he could already dunk a basketball and was considered a better basketball prospect than baseball. In fact he was going to quit baseball to concentrate on basketball, but his family convinced him to give it one more year. Of course that was the year he started doing steroids and working out a whole bunch and started hitting home runs (he was a tall skinny defensive whiz before that), and all of a sudden was an instant baseball mega prospect (his bench press went from 100 pounds to 310 in 3 months), and the rest, as they say, is history.
I could see ARod playing NBA point guard in an alternate universe, or NFL linebacker, or something.
He's a freak among freaks.
He also went to the Jose Canseco school of body building (literally, Canseco was one of his heros and they worked out together frequently in the off seasons)
if he'd been a strong safety. :- )
On TV, they stated that Vargas hit .350+ for his career at Long Beach State... sure enough, he's a career .292 hitter in the bigs ... 2nd among active pitchers > 50 PA's...
Vargas' first AB was weak, however. Three mushy pitches, taking all the way, 1-2... 89 mph fastball neck high, terrible hack at it.
Just musing. Vargas might be, more or less, the best-hitting pitcher in baseball...
Might be fun to run him out there in NL double-switches, Vargas playing LF/RP for two or three innings at a time as the RHP's out of the pen kept the platoon advantage.