Doc, you're looking at his vertical break there.. Piniero's two-seam moves around 10 inches the past two years. Fister is closer to 7 (6.27inches last night).
Fister has turned out better than I expected, but I don't buy into him fully yet as a Carlos Silva/Jon Garland type until he strikes out more or continues to keep guys rolling over. He throws slower than Silva and hes not missing ANY bats (even Silva misses about twice as many), but he doesn't show a HR issue and has low BB and high GB.
I'm starting to think hes closer to a true talent mid-to-high-4 ERA type as opposed to a 5 ERA type, but I need to see more missed bats and a continuation of the GB trend.
I think its more likely his GB rate stays in the high 40s since he doesn't have a Piniero-esque sinker, but if he can continue to limit the BBs and not be hittable or have high HR rate, he'll be better than I expected.
... for those who just joined us, +1.00 on a pitch means it's a big weapon, especially if it's used more than 15% of the time. +2.00 and you're talking about Erik Bedard's yellow hammer.
Fister's run value on the fastball is +3.00, which is (a) about the prescription on my monitor glasses these days and (b) better than Nolan Ryan could ever dream of. Seriously.
Doogie snapped this electro-whip swerveball at the Rays' fearsome lineup on Friday and again cut their Formula 1 chassis in half. Well, okay, it's not like he dominated, but c'mon. Here was his pitch selection:
- 73x number ones (88 mph fastballs)
- 9x number twos (74 mph curves, one of which was hit to deep LF)
- 8x number threes (81 mph changes)
- 3x number fours (84 mph sliders)
And despite the fact that the Rays could have been putting the index finger down themselves, Fister walked off the field without allowing an earned run.* To the Rays. Playing on ice with the Zamboni clearing it every two innings.
It's not Fister's lack of domination (K's) that interests me. It's that fact that his fastball, like Jo-El's, is apparently bulletproof.
No joke, kiddies. Game after game, he goes out there, rips his shirt open, chest bared against the machine guns, and they can't do a thing with it.
Jo-El II.
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=== Wham-O Dept. ===
My dad played high school ball and was recruited for the minors, though ultimately they decided against a contract. This was (I think) the 1950's. He faced one pitcher, in all that time, who threw a true professional breaking pitch.
"It dropped five inches just as you swung," my dad said. The width of two baseballs. "I couldn't make contact."
"The coach told us to swing under it. It didn't work."
..............
Most ML pitchers' fastballs move 5-7 inches: the width of two baseballs. ML hitters' eyes are, evidently, used to this two-baseball sideways deflection.
Doogie's fastball, however, deflects 10-11 inches: the width of four baseballs. Friday night, Fister's average horizontal movement was 11.3 inches relative to vacuum. That's Frisbee territory. The hitters are having a maddening time figuring out how to square it up.
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=== Don't Even Need 'Em ===
It has seemed to me, visually, that Fister's berserker rampage with the fastball had cost him his touch on the hellacious changeup.
Was actually surprised to find that Fister's change is running a +2.34 run value itself, again comparable to (say) Erik Bedard's curve. I guess when you're leading the league in ERA, all your pitches will have great run values. Next tater will pinball-machine the value way up there, no doubt.
But we still say that he's not getting the swing-throughs that he should be. Hope here is that, after the 80% fastball binge runs its course, that a 25% ratio on the change will restore the parachute action and restore the K ratio.
........
The curve-ball value is +0.51 ... way up from 2009 when he hung it routinely ... and the brand-new slider has a -4.5 or something. SSI likes the look of it, for later on, though.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
At texasleaguers.com, I'm reading the horizontal on the two-seamer (FT), which they give as -10.3 inches, or -11.3 last game. You're reading the FF (four-seamer) at -7.1 on the year...
Oh yeah. the FF is the one that he throws the most by far. Thanks for the correction Taro m'man.
................
-7.1 for a four-seamer is still a lot -- Felix' moves -2.0 -- but yeah. I'd overlooked the fact that the four-seamer is what he throws.
:c-points:
No, this is my bad Doc. I thought you were looking at brooks' vertical movement for his four-seam, but you're right on his two-seam.
He throws his four-seam the vast majority of the time and he does have above-average run.
Piniero throws a "one-seam" which has the velocity of his four-seam, but the movement of a two-seam.
I *was* thinking that Fister got Frisbee-type 10-11 inch run, and that's crazy. 7-8 is plenty nuff to be a major factor, but 10-11 is a different conversation.
Good stuff champ.